DMR Spot Play and Live Follow

[positive4th]

I'm putting half of my daily budget on 1 horse and spreading it around on a Win bet, Doubles, and Rolling P3's. I honestly think he'll leave the gate at 3/5, and I want to try to get it to something closer to 2-1 by keying him in a pile of exotics as well. IF he doesn't come through, its on to the P4, no chasing my losses on this guy - - - but I don't think he'll lose.

Ladies and gentlemen, I give you in R3 the :3: Fortunate Appeal. He's a class-dropping 3yo gelding who should fire well in this spot, even with the extra distance. But more importantly than the pick is the method for maximizing value on him. My wagers are as follows:

R1 Pick 3 - -

:1: :3: / :3: :6: / :3: (3 Units) = $12

ALL / :3: :6: / :3: (1 Unit) = $10

:1: :3: / ALL / :3: (1 unit) = $12

R2 Pick 3 - -

:3: :6: / :3: / :2: :4: (3 units) = $12

ALL / :3: / :2: :4: (1 unit) = $12

:3: :6: / :3: / ALL (2 units) = $16

R2 Daily Double - -

ALL / :3: (1 Unit) = $12

:3: :6: / :3: (3 units) = $12

:3: :4: / :3: (4 Units) = $16

R3 Pick 3 - -

:3: / :2: :4: / :4: :5: (3 Units) = $12

:3: / ALL / :4: :5: (2 Units) = $16

:3: / :2: :4: / ALL (1 unit) = $20

R3 Daily Double - -

:3: / :2: :4: (3 Units) = $12

:3: / ALL (1 unit) = $8

Total Rolling Exotics = $168

Total Win Bet on :3: in R3 = $150

TOTAL INVESTED: $318

[positive4th]

This follow-along is my response to my own constant complaint that people simply "post picks" with no indicator of how they play them.

If you post 4 horses for EVERY FREAKIN RACE and play exacta boxes, that's hardly an opinion as far as I'm concerned, so I wanted to offer and receive insight on how people actually emphasize their best opinions. That's why I made this series of plays and posted them.

[speed]

He sure looks like a winner. 3/5 sounds about right. Think ur nuts to bet a 3/5 shot to win.
I have always believed if you allow urself to bet these types to win you eventually miss a horse at a price fore you start looking for these types.
Will i bet against this one. No

Good Luck

[Gapfire]

He sure looks like a winner. 3/5 sounds about right. Think ur nuts to bet a 3/5 shot to win.
I have always believed if you allow urself to bet these types to win you eventually miss a horse at a price fore you start looking for these types.
Will i bet against this one. No

Good Luck

He's trying to turn the 3/5 shot into a 2/1 value with his betting structure.

[positive4th]

He's trying to turn the 3/5 shot into a 2/1 value with his betting structure.

Precisely, and that's the entire point of the exercise......I mind if he wins or loses b/c I have money on it, but you're spot-on in terms of seeing the point of the exercise in the first place.

Improving the win odds by dipping into the exotics is completely what this is about, not hanging my nickels on a 3/5 horse.

[positive4th]

Precisely, and that's the entire point of the exercise......I mind if he wins or loses b/c I have money on it, but you're spot-on in terms of seeing the point of the exercise in the first place.

Improving the win odds by dipping into the exotics is completely what this is about, not hanging my nickels on a 3/5 horse.

If he doesn't win, he doesn't win, and putting 100% of a bet into an underlaid horse will still come up empty if he loses. But putting some of the total bet into the win pool and some into the others is an effort to improve his win price...................this is actually a useful thing to try out if you want to make money on the Rachel A.'s, Zenyattas, etc. of the world.

[rmania]

I can see this one going off at 3-5 (typical for DMR) but I don't really think he deserves it. The speed he showed in his last race was not that much greater than some of his opponets today. And the speed he display in his first race (2nd place finish) was actually slower than a few he's facing today.

I also question the 2 level drop after what appeared to be a very nice 2nd for 40K.

I would bet against him but wouldn't be surprised if he won.

[speed]

He's trying to turn the 3/5 shot into a 2/1 value with his betting structure.

All i talked about was the win bet.

Good Luck

[speed]

If he doesn't win, he doesn't win, and putting 100% of a bet into an underlaid horse will still come up empty if he loses. But putting some of the total bet into the win pool and some into the others is an effort to improve his win price...................this is actually a useful thing to try out if you want to make money on the Rachel A.'s, Zenyattas, etc. of the world.

I just read your slogan i have never met a man who pays the rent at 4/5.
Gotta say that makes this hilarious.

Good Luck

[positive4th]

I think realistically, for this to be useful, it would need to create an effective overlay of at least 50%, meaning that if the horse goes off at 3/5 and I wind up making even money (so i think $636 total), it will have accomplished its mission.

[positive4th]

I just read your slogan i have never met a man who pays the rent at 4/5.
Gotta say that makes this hilarious.

Good Luck

That's the entire point........you can't make it ONLY betting the odds-on horse in the Win pool - - branching out to improve his price is a skill to itself, and that's the point here.

[positive4th]

All i talked about was the win bet.

Good Luck

but only paying attn to the win bet in this particular case is completely missing the forest for the trees

[Gapfire]

Don't you think Pedroza will send this one to the front? I don't know if that style will work today going 7 furlongs.

[positive4th]

Don't you think Pedroza send this one to the front? I don't know if that style will work today going 7 furlongs.

He probably will, and it may not work...........but honestly, even if he doesn't win, I'll still be fine with trying the exercise. I'm just saying that if you were backing this horse to win, this is a good route to squeezing the most value out of him.

[speed]

but only paying attn to the win bet in this particular case is completely missing the forest for the trees
That's me, the lumberjack I just believe making bets that involve a ton of chalk are generally undervalued so that makes it that much more difficult.

Good Luck

[Gapfire]

He probably will, and it may not work...........but honestly, even if he doesn't win, I'll still be fine with trying the exercise. I'm just saying that if you were backing this horse to win, this is a good route to squeezing the most value out of him.

I agree. Hopefully they water the track. Then he's got a better shot.

[Gapfire]

The 5 just rerallied in the 2nd.

[positive4th]

The 5 just rerallied in the 2nd.

saw that, maybe early speed will hold for him..........the R1 Pick 3 is out, and the R2 Double is alive but set to lose slightly, meaning that I'll need the other 2 pick 3's for this to work the way I envisioned it..............


Let's relax, BTW, on acting like this is the worst idea ever, the point remains max value, and it may or may not work. It happens.

[Gapfire]

s

Let's relax, BTW, on acting like this is the worst idea ever, the point remains max value, and it may or may not work. It happens.

I agreed with you, I didn't say it was the worst idea ever.

[positive4th]

I agreed with you, I didn't say it was the worst idea ever.

I know you didn't, but some ppl are acting like an effort to improve the odds on a chalky horse is completely silly. I think it's worth trying if you occasionally want to back strong looking horses that are going to be underlaid - - you need a value vehicle or you need to totally ignore them, and this is simply choosing the former.

[speed]

I deserve this. :) Missed a 9/1 at Woodbine i was looking at 2 hours ago because i was involved with an exercise involving a 3/5 shot.

Think ur exercise is fruitful but only if you have strong opinions in the races surrounding the heavy chalk. Otherwise you are spreading out too much with no value at all.

Good Luck

[positive4th]

Think ur exercise is fruitful but only if you have strong opinions in the races surrounding the heavy chalk. Otherwise you are spreading out too much with no value at all.

Good Luck

Very true, and point well taken...............sorry you missed your Woodbine winner!!! :eek:

[speed]

Very true, and point well taken...............sorry you missed your Woodbine winner!!! :eek:

Thanks, At least i got the Pick 3 in earlier.

Of course i missed that. :)

[positive4th]

Well, that's the end of that! :)

$300 bucks in the hole before the P4 starts...........hoping for the best!

[Gapfire]

He tried to re-rally. Too bad.

[positive4th]

He tried to re-rally. Too bad.

Yeah............tried to do what the :5: in R2 did, but couldn't.............I'm not abandoning the exercise in general, but I don't know if 3/5 Key Horses are the way to go..........we'll see.

As per my original post in this thread, this was my only play for the day, save for the P4, and I posted those tix in another thread, so we'll see!

[dirt]

taking a shot with 12 and boxing 12-4

[positive4th]

taking a shot with 12 and boxing 12-4

BOL

[rmania]

Yeah............tried to do what the :5: in R2 did, but couldn't.............I'm not abandoning the exercise in general, but I don't know if 3/5 Key Horses are the way to go..........we'll see.

As per my original post in this thread, this was my only play for the day, save for the P4, and I posted those tix in another thread, so we'll see!
Nothing wrong with the exercise. And playing odds-on horses seems to be the reason for it. You just have to be more selective and find a true odds-on favorite.

[Gapfire]

Nothing wrong with the exercise. And playing odds-on horses seems to be the reason for it. You just have to be more selective and find a true odds-on favorite.


Precisely, and as you pointed out before the race, this one did have a few knocks against it.

[dirt]

playing 6 to win and exacta key with 1,and 2

[speed]

race 6 the 5 at 8/1 seems like a bit of value for me.

[positive4th]

Nothing wrong with the exercise. And playing odds-on horses seems to be the reason for it. You just have to be more selective and find a true odds-on favorite.

I agree - - - gotta be more selective with the KH, AND probably take a slightly narrower stance in the surrounding races. Maybe good to try with the rolling doubles first, then move out into the P3's.

Actually Davidowitz's book has a nice DD structure that might be of help in spots similar to this one.

BOL to all in the P4!!!!!