Where should a closer begin closing?

[kenwoodallpromos]

???

[VetScratch]

If you are talking about horses with a predisposition to be closers (S-types), most cannot be "asked" and then sustain their best effort under "strong urging" for more than 3 furlongs when they are matched up in a competitive field. For many, a full 3f all-out-effort is a rarity, and longer moves are either class-level illusions or the mark of a "good" horse.

[kenwoodallpromos]

That makes sense, surprise the other jockeys and give the closer a head start at the turn!! :)

[VetScratch]

In "common" races, many jockeys err by asking for 3f from a closer who can't sustain a top effort much past 2.xf... hence, bid and hung.

[hurrikane]

I think every horse is different. It can depend on how far back he runs and how long he can sustain.

I've seen them start on the back stretch, at the last turn, in the turn, top of the stretch...everywhere.

At CNL on day a jock lost his irons out of the gate..got them back..and won. If you look at the running line this puppy will look like he was closing the whole friggin race...and I suppose he was.

Best race I've seen in a long long time.

[Tom]

My preference is that the closer be making up ground in the second fraction - I like a high turn time on my late babies.
Unless its a turf race, then I' m happy if they get rolling by the tote board <G>
My early days of horse racing were filled with those great closers that never quite got there - much like my car payments at the time! Forego being the exception. I once had a horse get lapped in a four mile race! (Mill Reef).
Those are days you really shake your head and wonder why!
I am much happier getting nipped at the wire these days with my F1 horses. :rolleyes:

[VetScratch]

Hurrikane,
At CNL on day a jock lost his irons out of the gate..got them back..and won. If you look at the running line this puppy will look like he was closing the whole friggin race...and I suppose he was.I call that a class-level illusion... most horses cannot duplicate that kind of performance when they run with others of equal caliber. One of the most common paddock discussions between trainers and jockeys will be about where to ask a closer to begin his drive... the purpose being to avoid moving too early and ultimately hanging near the wire when front-runners are de-accelerating at the most pronounced rate.

Horses have a herd instinct, and most fields will naturally tend to compress after everyone settles into stride. As Tom noted, closers that are very nimble on turns have an edge because they make up extra ground before they are set down for the drive. In any case, most closers must run a notch below their "true" class to compensate for racing luck.

[hurrikane]

well Vet

that's one theory.

[VetScratch]

Hurrikane,

What's your theory?

A one line opinion?

One race at CNL?

Define your terms... make some sense!

[hurrikane]

I gave you my theory.

I believe every horse is different. (one line. Sorry, why complicate it with a lot of verbage)

I dont' believe you can state this is how it is for every closer.

I haven't necessarily bought into the heard theory Vet.

This is all theory without any real facts to back it up so it is only opinion..and you know about opinions.

Good luck

[VetScratch]

My posts agreed that all horses are different, but the original question seemed to want more information than that in response.

I'm sure Ken already knew all horses are different! :)

[VetScratch]

Hurrikane,

In case you want to seriously learn about horses; every year, in the early spring, farms and training centers near Aiken, Ocala, and Lexington start an army of two-year-olds on their way to the races. If you want to really learn about the nature of horses, these geographic locales are a good place to start. Without prior experience, it is easier to get a job at a training farm or in a barn at one of the training centers than it is at a racetrack.

Honest hard workers are in short supply. In recent years, a lot of young Irish horsemen (young men and women) have been coming over on work visas. They already know horses and are very forthcoming about helping others learn... more so than many of the native Americans you might encounter.

Working with young horses in training is the fastest path to knowledge about the instincts and idiosyncracies that combine to make horses like snowflakes, alike in many ways but distinct in others. Next year, you could make the rounds and try to get hired by a good outfit. You may really enjoy learning to appreciate horses and while benefitting from plenty of healthy hard work.

[DJofSD]

I believe outside of the one move horse, what we call sustained types are horses that slow down less quickly than the "E" types hence the illusion they close in on the pack.

DJofSD

[VetScratch]

DJofSD
I believe outside of the one move horse, what we call sustained types are horses that slow down less quickly than the "E" types hence the illusion they close in on the pack.If it can be summed up in one line, you've done it!

What fans perceive as a closing effort when a jockey gets after his mount "animates" the illusion that acceleration is involved, except in very rare instances. However, if you train several horses in company with one another, when the front-running riders ease up, they will all usually start to relax unless the trailing riders encourage their mounts to persist and press on.

At training facilities, like Ocala, where a barn may take a dozen or more two-year-olds to the track at the same time, teaching youngsters to go right on by other horses is one of the primary objectives of galloping and working them in company.

At training centers, the barns usually work out scheduling arrangements so that only one or two share the track at the same time. At racetracks, complex logistics make harder for a barn to send a large group of horses to the track at the same time.

[kenwoodallpromos]

Sounds like working in company is a good sign foe first time starters.

[VetScratch]

Right before a first start is a little late to begin lessons that should have taken place long before a maiden first sets foot on the grounds of a racetrack (as opposed to a training center).

[hurrikane]

Gee thanks for the advice Vet.

Only one problem. I believe in making money. My experience has been that you don't have to shovel a lot of horse shit to do it.

I am finding out however that I have to listen to a lot of horseshit while I'm making the money.

[VetScratch]

There is nothing sadder than uninformed wealth because there is no quick fix for ignorance!

[VetScratch]

Hurrikane, how are you and Joe doing with your pari-mutuel probability studies... making money? The last time I ran into you, you made a fake query about pari-mutuel probability studies and then responded by claiming that you and Joe <somebody> were experts on such matters. I am surprised that you are not claiming to break and train horses in this thread.

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally posted by VetScratch
DJofSD
If it can be summed up in one line, you've done it!

What fans perceive as a closing effort when a jockey gets after his mount "animates" the illusion that acceleration is involved, except in very rare instances. However, if you train several horses in company with one another, when the front-running riders ease up, they will all usually start to relax unless the trailing riders encourage their mounts to persist and press on.


Didn't Sartin and other pace enthusiasts state this years and years ago?? I thought this was common knowledge among handicappers.

[VetScratch]

The fractions tipped most folks off long before Sartin. The way the subject gets discussed, however, reflects perception even though jockeys and trainers know that closing via acceleration is an usually an illusion. Even the official chart callers use phrases like "moved to the lead" rather than "inherited the lead."

[DJofSD]

Yes, it was Doc that I learned about sustained types and deceleration.

I believe that running styles are determined by the mix of fast and slow twitch muscle fibers. And I believe the best a trainer can do is develop the horses running style - not change it. I think the late CW was a great expounder of that theory.

DJofSD

[Lefty]

Once again the Doc was "front and center" with "groundbreaking" revelations. I never even heard the word Deceleration in conjunction with horses until Doc wrote about it.
He definitely belongs in that "hall of fame" written about in another thread.

[hurrikane]

Interesting post Vet,

but you haven't a clue what the f you are talking about.
I don't agree with a lot of what Joe says and I'd be interested in seeing this post you talk about....Vet...or is it Frank-Guru?

[JimG]

Originally posted by hurrikane@HTR

I am finding out however that I have to listen to a lot of horseshit while I'm making the money.

Kane,

Amen. Thanks for the laugh.

Jim

[freeneasy]

Originally posted by hurrikane@HTR
I think every horse is different. It can depend on how far back he runs and how long he can sustain.

I've seen them start on the back stretch, at the last turn, in the turn, top of the stretch...everywhere.

At CNL on day a jock lost his irons out of the gate..got them back..and won. If you look at the running line this puppy will look like he was closing the whole friggin race...and I suppose he was.

Best race I've seen in a long long time.

did you ever get a chance to see Vigors when he was at his absolute peak of maturity? if not, then all i can say is, the only thing i can think of to descrribe this animals last 1/2 mile and last 3/8ths mile move on the track is this and that is, you just had to be there, to see it, to believe it.
man it was something like one of those moments when everything on the track that had any kind of movement just came standing still as some kind of a big white greyish super glider passed you by on his way to dissappearing into thin air. that horse was a runn'n fool. vigors. mark em.

[VetScratch]

Originally posted by hurrikane@HTR
Interesting post Vet,

but you haven't a clue what the f you are talking about.
I don't agree with a lot of what Joe says and I'd be interested in seeing this post you talk about....Vet...or is it Frank-Guru?
I was referring to this series of posts in a thread where Game Theory and I were debating the accuracy of probabilities that underly pari-mutuel odds:Originally posted by hurrikane@HTR
vet,
what studies? where are these studies and who did them? Originally posted by VetScratch
Hurrikane,

I think some old-timers preceded Quirin (1979), but his book popularized this kind of study.

Most every region/circuit used to have local a expert/publisher who kept cumulative statistics and published annual updates showing results (often showing cumulative and previous season).

These guys began to disappear (like the local variant sheets) when the information business became a national enterprise dominated by big on-line providers.

I haven't seen one of these booklets for several years, but my OCD/statistics friend has evaluated his own database without revealing a drastic change to the assertion that horses tend to win in accordance with the probabilities expressed by their odds.

If you compare pari-mutuel probabilities to win percentages, you should produce a ladder that reflects substantial agreement. (See page 296 of Quirin to see such a ladder).

This is why I asked Game Theory if he had new studies that no longer support this thesis. Originally posted by hurrikane@HTR
vet,
I believe and know about these studies. When someone says my friend did this and that study I just like to know what where and when.

I'm guessing your friend is Joe. Our own formula. :D
Why would you suggest that others are "borrowing" on work done by you and Joe <somebody>. Did Quirin base his work on yours? I have know idea who you are or who Joe is. Your question sounded legit, but your snippy answer doesn't. What are you selling?

[DJofSD]

freeaneasy-

I don't know if it is possible but try to find the PP's for Bang Bang Bang. He ran in the claiming ranks back in the late '80's. Came up from TJ, ran in SoCal (I remember DMR, especially) then eventually ended up in AZ when I lost track of him. He seem to be able to close a ton. And even when he didn't win, it was still exciting to see how close he'd come to the leaders as they crossed the finish line.

DJofSD

[hurrikane]

hey Vet,

pull your head out for a minute and read the post. No where do I or have I ever said these are my studies, they were taken from me, or I am an expert.

I asked you, who what where when.

You had no legitimate answer.

You do, however, spout out info as though it were fact. I just wanted to know who, what where and when.

You still have no legitimate answer, lets move on Frank

[VetScratch]

If you don't know who Quirin is, we might as well drop this issue, but most folks do know, while hardly anyone could be expected to know who you mean by Joe or Frank. What studies, indeed?

[freeneasy]

Originally posted by DJofSD
freeaneasy-

I don't know if it is possible but try to find the PP's for Bang Bang Bang. He ran in the claiming ranks back in the late '80's. Came up from TJ, ran in SoCal (I remember DMR, especially) then eventually ended up in AZ when I lost track of him. He seem to be able to close a ton. And even when he didn't win, it was still exciting to see how close he'd come to the leaders as they crossed the finish line.

DJofSD
yeah, bang bang bang, i remember him, funny how sometimes for whatever reason, you just never forgot or seem to never forget some old obscure horse. i remember this old horse i used to bet on all the time. bottom claimer always in the double, when it used to be the 1st and 2nd races only. New Stamp. always got 8-5, 9-5 on him. was a sprinter on the dirt, a closer, fernando toro always rode him and always got him up at the wire. yeah bang bang bang, i rememger him

[kenwoodallpromos]

I am just curious about the local variant reports you mentioned. Did they address track condition and did they point to value bets on closers? I'm just wondering how detailed they were.

[hurrikane]

ok Vet, you got me. Who is Quirin? :rolleyes:

PA,

Can we start a new topic...call it Esoteric BS......:cool: Only place vet and ken are allowed post

(so they can stroke themselves. After all this is a family oriented site :D)

[VetScratch]

Ken,
Originally posted by kenwoodallpromos
I am just curious about the local variant reports you mentioned. Did they address track condition and did they point to value bets on closers? I'm just wondering how detailed they were. I was referring to the local/circuit sheets that used to be a staple before national simulcasting. Most publishers offered mail subscriptions and sold through newsstands that also carried the DRF. Usually on a weekly basis, they listed sprint and route variants for the local meet-to-date, as well more detailed jockey/trainer/post-position stats than the DRF or track program. Some sheets also ranked days in terms of inside/outside and early/late biases. Noteworthy trip comments were also a feature in many local sheets.

Several of members of this board apparently do their own variants, and I would be not surprised if one or more of them still offers subscriptions, maybe by email.

When national simulcasting emerged, many local publishers went out of business and were succeeded by national Internet publishers like BRIS, which covers all tracks but may not be as attuned to local conditions as some of the old-timers.

[VetScratch]

Hurrikane@HTR,
Originally posted by hurrikane@HTR
ok Vet, you got me. Who is Quirin?
PA,
Can we start a new topic...call it Esoteric BS...... Only place vet and ken are allowed post
(so they can stroke themselves. After all this is a family oriented site)You don't sound like a happy camper. After a little research, I found the HTR Message Board (http://www.hardtoread.com/cgi-bin/yabb/YaBB.pl?board=Bitch). The thread "Girls Really Suck" suggests that you have a problem dealing with girls.

Why don't you try being nice to girls? Young men who think they are too short, fat, or ugly are underestimating the ability of girls to find inner beauty. Some of the worst men in later life were the "big man on campus" during high school or college. Give girls a chance to appreciate you!

[Tom]

This is NOT the HTR message board for the HTR software:eek:

[hurrikane]

Vet,

you are an idiot!

[VetScratch]

Search the Internet for "HTR board" and see for yourself.

It looks like a teenage chat board to me, and that certainly fits Hurrikane's writing style.

What is HTR if not this message board? I've never heard of HTR software. This guy writes software? :D

Tom, I think you must mean HSH software, which everyone has heard of, and is a top-notch product.