Angles in handicapping

[thoroughbred]

Wouldn't this forum be a good place to share handicapping angles. Angles are important enough that I think they deserve a separate thread here on the message board.

Although angles arise at rare intervals, when they do they can lead to some nice payoffs.

[Tom]

Hi, Tbred-good idea. Thanks for the post. Here's one of my favorites.
Horse is making third start after a layoff - in the fist start, it finished in the money or within 2 lengths.
The next start, the horse finished worse and earned a Beyer number at least 5 points lower than the comeback figure. Today, the horse is back within 30 days and that comeback fig is one of the top three in the field when looking at the best of last two for each horse. I once caught a $100 horse wtih this one, the same day I read about in Crammer's newsletter.

Tom 511

[andicap]

Great idea.
I like the surging 3 yr old or lightly raced 4 yr old.

Puts out a speed figure better than anything he/she done before and rests for 3-5 weeks. Look for this horse to improve. If his "top" is too high however, the horse may take a while to come back.
You like to see:

60, 73, 77. In the next few weeks this horse will run large.

if he does a 60, 80, it might need a bit longer.

Often times this type of horse will run a 60, 75, 75 and then expect a few off races and then a great race.

It's a Ragozin move that I love even though I use it with Beyers. Works fine.

Even a 4 yr old who breaks through and puts in a fig higher than before is eligible for a big spurt.

This play happens every day. Thursday at Saratoga in the 5th race, J W Black showed a steadily improving Beyer line on turf. 63, 76, 78 and 79 on June 9. On July 1, he regressed to a 54 but on Aug. 3 was eligible to surpass his 79. He didn't but ran a good race, a 75. On Aug. 30, the horse was still a threat to surpass his 79 and he won the race.

There is a time limit or race limit on this. If a horse continually fails to come back around and improve you have to be very skeptical about him.

[Tom]

andicap,
I like that angle, too.
I have been beat a lot on it, though-a lotof horse somehow manage two big numbers then "bounce."
I have been watching it and it seems that if the fisrt big move comes early in the year, the next one is big, too. A lot of times, it involves the first times around two turns.
Something like:
s s s s r r r r
55, 60, 64, 69, 75, 88, 90, 65

Tom 510

[andicap]

The tough thing about this angle Tom is it requires betting on a horse who's speed and pace figures are somewhat lower than the top contenders ones in today's race. For that reason I didn't have J W Black or Lemon Drop Kid in the Belmont a few years back who had a real nice "explosive" pattern as the Raggies call it (and it was on the Sheets not the Beyers -- I was just too chicken and horse's figures were too low.)

You really have to bet this one on faith and get odds because it certainly doesn't happen all the time.

That's why I don't mind sharing it. Most people still won't bet it because these horses don't always look all that great on paper.

[Tom]

andicap,
Good point. And that always makes a point or two higher odds, too.
What I am looking for a lot is other top fig horses not running back to their last high numbers. There is a lot of guesswork here.

Here's another real simple angle - bet any hore that won but 5 or more lengths last time out if if is back in 30 days and on the same distance/surface. Sounds pretty lame, but it sure gets some good prices. I am doing a sample on this angle to submit to Mark Crammer to go with his sample from the newsletter. So far, after 51 horses, I have 17 winners, and two paid over $20. It is a positive ROI. Nice quick angle to do a whole DRF in about 5 minutes and get a few good shots.
Tom

[andicap]

Tom,
You're telling me that a horse that won by 5 or more lengths last out can pay $20?

[Tom]

Originally posted by andicap
Tom,
You're telling me that a horse that won by 5 or more lengths last out can pay $20?




I Know the Family won by 5.5 at FL on 7/17/01 then came back to win again 8/18/01 - went off at 11.80-1.
(ok, 1 day over the 30, but at 11.80-1,
I can forgive a day).

Tom 517

[Tom]

andicap,
I Know The Family won back again today-3rd in a row.
Paid $19 this time!

Tom

[mac]

Tom

you keep refering to Mark Crammer newsletter. where does one get it?

keep us posted on your study, very interresting

[Rick Ransom]

Try horses who finished second last race but beat the third place horse by 5 or more lengths. This used to work 20 years ago, but may need some other rules such as recency limits to work now.

[Tom]

Originally posted by mac
Tom

you keep refering to Mark Crammer newsletter. where does one get it?

keep us posted on your study, very interresting

Cynthia Publishing putsit out.

http://www.cynpub.com/index.html

[kenwoodall]

Tom thanks for the site. Angle- simply telling myself i would never bet against the horse in that race makes it a good bet for me!

[Fastracehorse]

I like Euro shippers too.

They are hard for handicappers to sink their teeth inTO - S. American horses too - and hence, a guy can get a good price.

I like it when a sharp trainer spots them for a tag first-time N. A..

People are afraid to bet them and the tag signifies good trainer intent ( FTL ).

fffastt

[Fastracehorse]

There are alot of different patterns trainers use aren't there??

It is difficult to be sure what the trainer is doing but sometimes you get this very good bet.

fffastt

[the Bid]

I like the "third off the layoff" and the Euro shipper angles too. Certain trainers are very strong with those. For "3rdL" I like Galluscio, Lake and Pat Reynolds in NY. The Euro angle is very good with Clemente and Mott and of course Frankel. I'm in NY and assume that every circuit has it's stars at different angles.

[mikekk]

I like the "need-to-lead" sprinter type stretching out to a route after not being able to make the lead in his last few. These kind just love the 47 or 48 halves and often have something left to get home on.

I REALLY like it when they show a consistent "1 or 2" at the break in their sprints but have been getting eaten alive by the quarter (best) or the half (ok). At routes, with the save-some-horse attitude prevailing, they snap out and open up some daylight...just what they need.

I spent a year getting beaten by these types at generous to huge odds. Eventually I got smart and started betting them. I'm up big on this one. I want minimum odds of 8-1 and get it quite often.

Mikekk

PS Check the jockey. If you try to "save" this horse it's quits right there.

[BlueChip@DRF]

I almost exclusively play turf races when there is a French shipper involved - which means I don't get very much action.
I prefer the 1st time/very recent French import over all others - especially those who have run in Group races overseas. However, if the track is yielding/heavy, I prefer the German horses. They seem to do better over a boggy surface than any other import. Silvano and Uriah are two prime examples and good prices followed. Otherwise, it's the recent French import for me.

[GameTheory]

Seriously?

How does one get to be exclusively a French shipper on the turf bettor?

[BlueChip@DRF]

Just gotta look at the turf races only in the PPs. It also goes for GB imports whose last race was on a French racecourse. I know it doesn't provide much action, but it does save me time.

[hurrikane]

when there is a French shipper involved - which means I don't get very much action.
I prefer the 1st time/very recent French import over all others.



yeah, me too. Wish I knew where they all hung out. :D :D

[Rick]

hurrikane,

You need to talk to Derek about that to get the best advice.

[kenwoodall]

I'm boycotting bets on French and German horses. Is there a clockwise-counterclockwise negative angle?

[syyamo]

I'd like to bet on French horses but I'm afraid they would surrender coming down the stretch.

[Observer]

Originally posted by Fastracehorse@DRF
I like Euro shippers too.


Me too! Especially if they are coming to America with a switch to dirt and a pedigree for it .. see Snake Mountain (Race 9 (Stymie) @ Aqu on Sat.) and what he has done since coming to the U.S. with a switch to dirt .. then check out his pedigree!

And yes, I do like the Lasix on angle .. eventhough I hate so many horses running with it.

[BlueChip@DRF]

Originally posted by hurrikane@HTR
yeah, me too. Wish I knew where they all hung out. :D :D

Here are a couple today at Santa Anita:

Race 4: Morna's Girl 5/2
Race 7: Meteor Storm 7/5

Each raced in France. Not a big price here, but graded stakes races - like The Breeders Cup - may offer more value on occasion.

[Chico]

Before this thread goes completely off topic, here's an angle I like, especially between March and June.
Bet a lightly raced two year old that had decent numbers (Beyer or otherwise) and was then laid off for a number of months. I add 1 1/2 Beyer points for each month laid off (to account for a two year old maturing.) If the added maturity points make the horse competitive in today's race it is a play. This angle is playable in the first or second race after the layoff, taking into account trainer tendencies.
Most people don't like long layoff horses, but 2YO's are a different kettle of fish.
Regards,
Chico

[canuck]

Quick and easy angle

Horse wins its first lifetime start in msw

Next start gets clobberd

Trainer lays him off

In his third lifetime start bet across the board

I have seen soooooo many of these types come in over the years

Dont know if it has a positive roi or not--but if you fool around in the exotics NEVER leave this kind out!

[Zaf]

Originally posted by Chico
Before this thread goes completely off topic, here's an angle I like, especially between March and June.
Bet a lightly raced two year old that had decent numbers (Beyer or otherwise) and was then laid off for a number of months. I add 1 1/2 Beyer points for each month laid off (to account for a two year old maturing.) If the added maturity points make the horse competitive in today's race it is a play. This angle is playable in the first or second race after the layoff, taking into account trainer tendencies.
Most people don't like long layoff horses, but 2YO's are a different kettle of fish.
Regards,
Chico

Chico,

Do you mean play the hoss when he comes back early in his 3YO season ? A 2YO would not be off a long layoff in March to June. Or do you mean 2YO. I like the sound of your angle, could you just clarify a little. Thanks.

ZAFONIC

[Chico]

Originally posted by zafonic
[B]Chico,

Do you mean play the hoss when he comes back early in his 3YO season ? A 2YO would not be off a long layoff in March to June. Or do you mean 2YO. I like the sound of your angle, could you just clarify a little. Thanks.

Of course, you are right. We are talking about horses coming back as 3YO's after long layoffs as 2YO's. Actually, this is not so much an "angle" as it is based on sound handicapping which many players don't take into account.

Typically, a good trainer will introduce a nice 2YO to racing with just a few races, generally in the spring and summer, and then send the animal back to the farm during the winter and allow the horse to mature. As you know, at two a horse is equivelant to a 12-14 year old human being. When the horse returns in the spring or early summer as a 3YO it is equal to a person at age 18-22 years old. That is a whale of a difference in maturation.

If the horse showed promise at two he should be able to handle the plugs that fill many races. As I previously mentioned, I allow 1 1/2 Beyer points per month for the expected improvement. (that equates to about 1/5 of a second gain at the pace call for each 2 months away from racing.)

It is important to factor in "trainer tendencies" since some bring 'em back ready to run at once and some like to give them one or two preps before springing them.

Regards,
Chico

[Zaf]

Thanks Chico,

Thats certainly something to think about this time of year !

ZAFONIC

[larrythelouse@DMTC]

I have followed the Foreign horses for years and I look for those that come from Ireland or France, first time out on the grass, and first time lasix users. The prescence of a top jockey will enhance my wagers. You will often get a very generous price.

Another angle that made me a lot of money was looking for horses that ran in Europe on the "all-weather" tracks and won, but lost on the turf, then shipped here to run on the dirt, you won't find many but when you do they are dynamite.

[so.cal.fan]

Larry,
do you think horses shipping from tracks in Ireland are better than those running in England?
I always thought that while there were several really classy races in England.....there were only a few in Ireland.
Did you mean Irish breds? Now, I would say those may be classier than the English breds.
Any opinions, anyone?

[larrythelouse@DMTC]

So. Cal. I do prefer Irish bred over GB breds, other than Ascot, most of the Irish tracks are on a par with all of the English tracks, pay attention to the money won, and if possible get a Time Form rating on the horse.

[the Bid]

Larrythelouse, I agree with the all weather angle too. I can't recall the name of the horse that won at Aqu at 5-1 a few weeks back with that exact angle. He'd won once in Europe, at Lingfield at 8.5f. He won here at 8.5 in a $25kNW2L.

[Fastracehorse]

Luv this angle, orrrrrrrrr, at least like it.

These types seem to always have a chance and are always at a price.

Here is a recent example:

Race - Santa Anita Park - Thursday, March 13th, 2003
Conditions: 1M Turf. FOR FOUR-YEAR-OLDS AND UPWARD. Weight 122 lbs..

CLAIMING PRICE $62,500, for each $2,500 to $55,000 1 lb.

3 Bit of Luck (GB) 4 G BL 118

Desormeaux Kent J.

11.80 - 1