Alabama

[Tom]

Hmmmmm.

The good Poly-experienced horse, who lags behind early, buries the good dirt horse with tactical speed who has first run on the leaders off a snail's pace.

Prophetical maybe?

Nice 3 yo filly, though.....nice.

So what happened to the Devil???

[andymays]

The top two finishers ran great. Impressive. :ThmbUp:

[BluegrassProf]

Hmmmmm.

The good Poly-experienced horse, who lags behind early, buries the good dirt horse with tactical speed who has first run on the leaders off a snail's pace.Yes indeed. Sure has been awesome to see her ship and win on dirt, hasn't it? Of course it has.

On that note, much as we love to stamp all things Z, perhaps we keep the Alabama thread mostly about the Alabama. Poor, poor DMC - string of disappointments, seems like... :blush:

[Watcher]

zVEmeNHnUrQ

[Zippy Chippy]

Hmmmmm.

The good Poly-experienced horse, who lags behind early, buries the good dirt horse with tactical speed who has first run on the leaders off a snail's pace.

Prophetical maybe?

Nice 3 yo filly, though.....nice.

So what happened to the Devil???

Good time to make my biggest bet of the year. With 18 mins to post she was 4-1. Ill take 9-5. I wasn't happy when I saw the fractions. Great filly

[letswastemoney]

Blind Luck is undefeated on dirt. No surprise she wins here.

[redshift1]

Those pesky polytrack horses just keep pounding the eastern contingent. California is all smiles.

[bisket]

it is a fact that horses that are trained and raced early in their career on poly just seem to have a leg up on horses that do the same on dirt. there is a place in this game for poly track..... its also a fact that these same horses can go the classic distance. NO MATTER THE PACE SCENERIO!!!! any horse that has the ability to relax early in a race going 1 1/4 mile or longer will win if ability is the same between that horse and the speed. our runners are finally starting to look efficient again at the classic distance. well at least the ones trained on poly.

[Fager Fan]

it is a fact that horses that are trained and raced early in their career on poly just seem to have a leg up on horses that do the same on dirt. there is a place in this game for poly track..... its also a fact that these same horses can go the classic distance. NO MATTER THE PACE SCENERIO!!!! any horse that has the ability to relax early in a race going 1 1/4 mile or longer will win if ability is the same between that horse and the speed. our runners are finally starting to look efficient again at the classic distance. well at least the ones trained on poly.

Which of course explains the runner up who's never set foot on synthetics.

Some of you act as though California was devoid of good horses until the past couple of years. Here's an alternate explanation for you - California has good horses just like they've always had.

A Triple Crown race winner from the Baffert barn. Who'd have thunk it?

[bisket]

Which of course explains the runner up who's never set foot on synthetics.

Some of you act as though California was devoid of good horses until the past couple of years. Here's an alternate explanation for you - California has good horses just like they've always had.

A Triple Crown race winner from the Baffert barn. Who'd have thunk it?
whelp until the past 2 years baffert had a pretty good streak of his horses looking like the scaredy cats that come from the east coast. am i wrong on that assesment?

[redshift1]

Blind Luck should have waited for the Travers as it looks subpar this year.

[Audioslavery]

Devil May Car faded like an old sweater, Blind Luck has had a pretty busy schedule and still won in convincing fashion.

[Fager Fan]

whelp until the past 2 years baffert had a pretty good streak of his horses looking like the scaredy cats that come from the east coast. am i wrong on that assesment?

"Scaredy cats from the east coast?" What kind of juvenile statement is that?

Yes, you're wrong in your assessment. Silver Charm, Point Given, Real Quiet, War Emblem, Congaree, Pioneerof The Nile, Cavonnier, do they ring any bells? How about Indian Blessing, Silverbulletday, and Chilukki?

Getting away from Baffert, do you need any reminders of the other really top horses who've been based in CA over the past decades?

There's no evidence that synthetics are a benefit to young horses. Contrary to your theory, we actually have trainers stating specifically that it's been a problem for developing young horses. Moss is one, Baffert is another. I've heard the same from other trainers who trained over other synthetics outside of CA.

[PhantomOnTour]

Blind Luck has now won 5 Gr Stks this year at five different tracks on poly, slop, and real dirt. Three of them were Gr1 and the other two were Gr2.
Not quite a Rachel Alexandra 3yr old campaign but pretty darn nice. Are the boys next? I think they will stay in the filly/mare division at least until next year.
Nice race. Nice filly.

[Dahoss9698]

Anyone else notice how mediocre Blind Luck looks on synthetic? She gets on dirt and she's a totally different filly. Synthetics make good horses look bad and bad horses look good.

[cj]

Devil May Car faded like an old sweater, Blind Luck has had a pretty busy schedule and still won in convincing fashion.

Amazingly, several East Coast figure guys loved Blind Luck today, not Devil.

[keithw84]

Blind Luck has now won 5 Gr Stks this year at five different tracks on poly, slop, and real dirt. Three of them were Gr1 and the other two were Gr2.
Not quite a Rachel Alexandra 3yr old campaign but pretty darn nice. Are the boys next? I think they will stay in the filly/mare division at least until next year.
Nice race. Nice filly.

Article about the decision to not run her in the Derby:

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/04/28/sports/28rail.html

Excerpt:
"He [Hollendorfer] did not rule out, however, using the Oaks as a springboard for challenges down the road."

I'd still be surprised if she faced the boys this year, though.

[andymays]

Anyone else notice how mediocre Blind Luck looks on synthetic? She gets on dirt and she's a totally different filly. Synthetics make good horses look bad and bad horses look good.

Exactly! ;) :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

Every "Synthetic Geek" needs to read this statement and then repeat it over and over again.

Then, after you've repeated it enough times where you totally get it, then tap your heels several times and say "There's no surface like a good dirt surface" "There's no surface like a good dirt surface" "There's no surface like a good dirt surface" "There's no surface like a good dirt surface"

Just to review the lesson the two things we learned today.

1. Synthetics make good horses look bad and bad horses look good!

2. "There's no surface like a good dirt surface"

The top two finishers ran great. They both have a lot of ability and I look forward to seeing them show it on a dirt surface again and again and again.

[illinoisbred]

Andy-wouldn't it be nice if it ended just like the movie....it was only a dream Dorothy, a bad dream.

[andymays]

Andy-wouldn't it be nice if it ended just like the movie....it was only a dream Dorothy, a bad dream.

Yes, I would prefer to wake up tomorrow, turn on the computer, and not see one friggin thing about this godforsaken crap.

[Jasonm921]

I went into this race not a true believer in Devil May Care. I thought both races (Mother Goose and CCA Oaks) were easy wins but sometimes horses may look like they are running easy but are they are pushing harder than it appears....I thought this was the case. Blind Luck....what else can you say? She took a running style with an extremely slow pace and delivered. Dutrow's horse (second place) is a nice runner as well.

[bisket]

"Scaredy cats from the east coast?" What kind of juvenile statement is that?

Yes, you're wrong in your assessment. Silver Charm, Point Given, Real Quiet, War Emblem, Congaree, Pioneerof The Nile, Cavonnier, do they ring any bells? How about Indian Blessing, Silverbulletday, and Chilukki?

Getting away from Baffert, do you need any reminders of the other really top horses who've been based in CA over the past decades?

There's no evidence that synthetics are a benefit to young horses. Contrary to your theory, we actually have trainers stating specifically that it's been a problem for developing young horses. Moss is one, Baffert is another. I've heard the same from other trainers who trained over other synthetics outside of CA.
wasn't there a pretty good streak of years between war emblem ( a scaredy cat in his own right) and pioneer..... thats the point!!

[Hanover1]

"Scaredy cats from the east coast?" What kind of juvenile statement is that?

Yes, you're wrong in your assessment. Silver Charm, Point Given, Real Quiet, War Emblem, Congaree, Pioneerof The Nile, Cavonnier, do they ring any bells? How about Indian Blessing, Silverbulletday, and Chilukki?

Getting away from Baffert, do you need any reminders of the other really top horses who've been based in CA over the past decades?

There's no evidence that synthetics are a benefit to young horses. Contrary to your theory, we actually have trainers stating specifically that it's been a problem for developing young horses. Moss is one, Baffert is another. I've heard the same from other trainers who trained over other synthetics outside of CA.

This one speaks truth........

[classhandicapper]

Hmmmmm.

The good Poly-experienced horse, who lags behind early, buries the good dirt horse with tactical speed who has first run on the leaders off a snail's pace.

Prophetical maybe?

Nice 3 yo filly, though.....nice.

So what happened to the Devil???

IMO Blind Luck is another example of the quality of horses in CA. She earned her reputation running very well on synthetic. The question was whether she would transfer that form to dirt. Clearly she is one of the ones that could and her figures got faster, just as is often the case (CA now has the leader of both 3YO divisions and they both looked like slow rats out there after making their reputation on those surfaces).

In another thread I said before the race Blind Luck was proven against the better horses. She also had excuses in a couple of her losses on synthetic when the pace was very slow (they all can't overcome slow paces).

Going into the race I thought she was fairly clearly the better horse, but believed that Devil was more likely to improve and she was more like to decline. I gave each of them 40% of the race (pick'em).

IMO Devil didn't run her "A" race. So I'm not so sure how much we learned about her, but Blink Luck is obviously a very good filly. It still wouldn't shock me if Devil turns the tables later in the season at 9F. BL has had a long tough campaign. Maybe she's an iron horse, but she's also flesh and bones too.

[Dahoss9698]

IMO Blind Luck is another example of the quality of horses in CA. She earned her reputation running very well on synthetic. The question was whether she would transfer that form to dirt.



Ummm, Blind Luck broke her maiden, on dirt, at Calder. She had established dirt form.

Here's a serious question, do you think the Blind Luck we see run on dirt is anywhere near the same filly we see on synthetic?

[exiles]

Amazingly, several East Coast figure guys loved Blind Luck today, not Devil.

The RAGS SHEETS had BL much faster.

[classhandicapper]

Ummm, Blind Luck broke her maiden, on dirt, at Calder. She had established dirt form.

Here's a serious question, do you think the Blind Luck we see run on dirt is anywhere near the same filly we see on synthetic?

IMO winning on dirt in slow time against non entities is not the same as establishing your reputation in Grade 1 races on synthetic and then trying to transfer that form to dirt. It was a plus, but no guarantee.

I think the Blind Luck we see on dirt is "similar" to the one we see on synthetic, but her style makes her vulnerable to extremely slow places. That kind of thing seems to pop up on synthetic quite a bit. I think the Beyer figure comparisons aren't strongly indicative of anything because she's both improving as a horse now and the figures don't translate well.

[Steve R]

The RAGS SHEETS had BL much faster.
My figures had her about 2 lengths faster as well.

[classhandicapper]

The RAGS SHEETS had BL much faster.

They sometimes make "slow pace adjustments" to their figures to correct for the impact of an extremely slow pace. That may be an issue with some of Blind Luck's races over and above the ground loss. (I didn't see her Sheet yesterday).

The Rags Sheets also have Zenyatta way faster than everyone else has her.

I know for certain they've made slow pace adjustments to some of Z's races and the ground loss issue has to be huge, but I think it's possible their CA figures are faster than most other figure makers on average or at least at the top.

[Dahoss9698]

IMO winning on dirt in slow time against non entities is not the same as establishing your reputation in Grade 1 races on synthetic and then trying to transfer that form to dirt. It was a plus, but no guarantee.

I think the Blind Luck we see on dirt is "similar" to the one we see on synthetic, but her style makes her vulnerable to extremely slow places. That kind of thing seems to pop up on synthetic quite a bit. I think the Beyer figure comparisons aren't strongly indicative of anything because she's both improving as a horse now and the figures don't translate well.

She broke her maiden by 13 lengths in a 4.5 furlong race earning a 78 beyer in June of her Juvenile year. I guess that's "slow", but a pretty impressive run nonetheless. How much faster can a debuting 2 year old run?

Ironically, Blind Luck seems immune to slow paces on dirt. However with the exception of the Hollywood Starlet, she looks pretty ordinary on synth. She's much better on dirt. And her connections aren't afraid to ship and run against the best.

Fun horse to watch.

[joanied]

Going in I was torn between the two...but thought DMC would beat Blind Luck by a very short margin...because DMC looked impressive her last two...looking back at them now, maybe she just hooked 2 fields she could beat because there was no Blind Luck to deal with.
I read what Pletcher said..."She didn't fire"....well, DUH...no $hit, Sherlock :faint: ...
I see the two may hook up again in the Cotillian (spelling?)...and that would be super...at least we have 2 trainers that aren't affraid to face off on the track...this is the kind of thing racing needs...
Blind Luck is fantastic...she deserves to be at the top of her division, and I hope she stays on dirt the reat of the year...this was her largest winning margin, that damned synthetic really does make good horses look bad.
I loved watching Hollendoffer root her on...that was worth the price of :ThmbUp: admission.
Blind Luck reminds me of a few other fillies that were small and had the same 'action'...Goldikova, Silverbulletday, Serena's Song...nice company!!

I'm happy Blind Luck won:jump:

[classhandicapper]

She broke her maiden by 13 lengths in a 4.5 furlong race earning a 78 beyer in June of her Juvenile year. I guess that's "slow", but a pretty impressive run nonetheless. How much faster can a debuting 2 year old run?

Ironically, Blind Luck seems immune to slow paces on dirt. However with the exception of the Hollywood Starlet, she looks pretty ordinary on synth. She's much better on dirt. And her connections aren't afraid to ship and run against the best.

Fun horse to watch.

Her dirt paces weren't nearly as slow as some of the paces she's faced on synthetic. Some of her synthetic races were extremely slow paced affairs that gave very little shot of getting up or running fast unless she was a freak.

All her dirt races have also been very close. If it wasn't for two favorable bobs, she would have lost twice on dirt. Not saying a bad thing about her because I think she's an outstanding filly on both surfaces (which is truly amazing), but IMO trying to compare her dirt/synth form based on figures is a tough task that I have more or less thrown the towel in on.

If she was winning off by 5 and more etc.. on dirt and the figures were massively higher, I'd agree with you. But this is am improving 3YO to begin with. Her figures should be getting faster over the last few months over and above the fact many horses get faster when they make the switch to dirt because the figures don't translate well

IMHO, at best, she's a hair better on dirt.

The one issue I have with her is that she's shipped all over the place multiple times and hasn't had much of a break. It has been a great campaign. But she's going to have another race before the Breeder's Cup and I think several fillies and mares are much fresher and more likely to fire a new peak 2-3 months from now than she is.

[Dahoss9698]

Her dirt paces weren't nearly as slow as some of the paces she's faced on synthetic. Some of her synthetic races were extremely slow paced affairs that gave very little shot of getting up or running fast unless she was a freak.

All her dirt races have also been very close. If it wasn't for two favorable bobs, she would have lost twice on dirt. Not saying a bad thing about her because I think she's an outstanding filly on both surfaces (which is truly amazing), but IMO trying to compare her dirt/synth form based on figures is a tough task that I have more or less thrown the towel in on.



I'm not comparing her figures at all. The only figure I recited was her debut, because you called it slow.

[Cardus]

I understand that each horse is different from the rest, but after seeing the California-based horses who have raced in the midwest and in the east multiple times this year, how much worse does it look for Sheriffs and the Mosses?

[Robert Fischer]

it was a very nice effort by Blind Luck, but it was unfortunate that she was entered in this race in terms of betting value. DMC was ripe for the picking, but 9/5 on a closer doesn't make a day.

[classhandicapper]

I understand that each horse is different from the rest, but after seeing the California-based horses who have raced in the midwest and in the east multiple times this year, how much worse does it look for Sheriffs and the Mosses?

It only looks bad because so many fans and the media have a massive east coast bias. No one complains when the best races or best horses in a specific division are in CA and none of the eastern based horses go there.

They wait for the BC so they can meet.

[classhandicapper]

I'm not comparing her figures at all. The only figure I recited was her debut, because you called it slow.

Sorry, I misunderstood because other than speed figures, on the face of it, I don't see much of a reason to think she's much better on dirt.

[Dahoss9698]

Sorry, I misunderstood because other than speed figures, on the face of it, I don't see much of a reason to think she's much better on dirt.

Yeah, other than the fact she's 5 for 5 on dirt, has been more impressive visually and has overcome race dynamics on dirt. If you can somehow look past that...yeah she's the same on synth and dirt.

[cj]

It only looks bad because so many fans and the media have a massive east coast bias. No one complains when the best races or best horses in a specific division are in CA and none of the eastern based horses go there.

They wait for the BC so they can meet.

Actually, why would anyone ship west this year to run on a surface nobody cares about?

[classhandicapper]

Yeah, other than the fact she's 5 for 5 on dirt, has been more impressive visually and has overcome race dynamics on dirt. If you can somehow look past that...yeah she's the same on synth and dirt.

I thought I just addressed that.

She's 5-5 on dirt because she's both very good AND was fortunate enough to win 2 head bobs on dirt. Otherwise she'd be 3-5 or 4-5. It's not like she's blowing any fields away on dirt either. Her biggest win came on synthetic when she got a "dirt like" pace on that surface.

IMO the pace dynamics of some of her synthetic races were MASSIVELY worse than anything she's faced on dirt to date and account for two of her losses on that surface this year. IMO that much is fairly evident. She'd be 6-8 on synthetic without those extreme pace scenarios, but that is the nature of synthetic racing. A deep closer has to a be a total monster to keep overcoming all the very slow paces that are more common on synthetic tracks. Her two legit losses came at 7F very early in her career and in the BC. Not too shabby.

Evening Jewel is a fairly good line on her too.

She beat Evening Jewel a nose on synthetic and then beat her a nose on dirt in the Kentucky Oaks.

Like I said, IMO if she's better on dirt, it's not by a lot. If you don't see it that way, we'll have to agree to disagree. ;)

[bks]

Classhandicapper, you're a well-named class act, which is unfortunately more than can be said about folks like Dahoss, whose smug condescension stinks up the entire thread.

Blind Luck's most visually impressive race was the Hollywood Starlet, for fun. Or did you miss that one?

[classhandicapper]

Actually, why would anyone ship west this year to run on a surface nobody cares about?

I certainly agree with that now, but historically CA horses have always gotten the worst of it because of the eastern bias. Whenever the best races were in CA because of seasonal differences or because the division was simply stronger out there, no one ever said boo that the best eastern horses didn't go out there to challenge them. Before the BC, the CA horse had to come to east one time. Now they they have to go to the BC.

[Dahoss9698]

I thought I just addressed that.

She's 5-5 on dirt because she's both very good AND was fortunate enough to win 2 head bobs on dirt. Otherwise she'd be 3-5 or 4-5. It's not like she's blowing any fields away on dirt either. Her biggest win came on synthetic when she got a "dirt like" pace on that surface.

IMO the pace dynamics of some of her synthetic races were MASSIVELY worse than anything she's faced on dirt to date and account for two of her losses on that surface this year. IMO that much is fairly evident. She'd be 6-8 on synthetic without those extreme pace scenarios, but that is the nature of synthetic racing. A deep closer has to a be a total monster to keep overcoming all the very slow paces that are more common on synthetic tracks. Her two legit losses came at 7F very early in her career and in the BC. Not too shabby.

Evening Jewel is a fairly good line on her too.

She beat Evening Jewel a nose on synthetic and then beat her a nose on dirt in the Kentucky Oaks.

Like I said, IMO if she's better on dirt, it's not by a lot. If you don't see it that way, we'll have to agree to disagree. ;)

We'll agree to disagree.

[Dahoss9698]

Classhandicapper, you're a well-named class act, which is unfortunately more than can be said about folks like Dahoss, whose smug condescension stinks up the entire thread.

Blind Luck's most visually impressive race was the Hollywood Starlet, for fun. Or did you miss that one?

Solid post. I hope you got it all out.

[Cardus]

Classhandicapper, you're a well-named class act, which is unfortunately more than can be said about folks like Dahoss, whose smug condescension stinks up the entire thread.

Blind Luck's most visually impressive race was the Hollywood Starlet, for fun. Or did you miss that one?

This act -- not that it is particular to you -- is old.

[bks]

I understand for you that's an admission. Have to meet people where they are.

[Fager Fan]

Classhandicapper, you're a well-named class act, which is unfortunately more than can be said about folks like Dahoss, whose smug condescension stinks up the entire thread.

Blind Luck's most visually impressive race was the Hollywood Starlet, for fun. Or did you miss that one?

Wholly disagree. Her most impressive race was at Oaklawn this year.

[Audioslavery]

Blind Luck is on track for the BC Distaff from the looks of it. She's gonna demolish that field at this rate. If she comes back next year (very likely), I presume then they'll consider racing her against boys a bit more.

[Fager Fan]

I certainly agree with that now, but historically CA horses have always gotten the worst of it because of the eastern bias. Whenever the best races were in CA because of seasonal differences or because the division was simply stronger out there, no one ever said boo that the best eastern horses didn't go out there to challenge them. Before the BC, the CA horse had to come to east one time. Now they they have to go to the BC.

You're not seeing what the real issue is/was, and it's that a horse shows that he or she isn't a "horse for the course" or a horse of one's home state.

Horses have always been penalized for not running and/or winning outside of California as well as NY (think Sky Beauty). The reason why it's always been more of an issue for CA horses is because the Eastern horses regularly ship whereas those in CA can stay right there all year long. The top Eastern horses, though, do not stay in NY for the winter. They go to Florida, Fair Grounds or Oaklawn, many with a side trip through Kentucky, maybe a few trips to New Jersey or Maryland or some other state. So during the course of the normal top Eastern horse's campaign, he will prove he can ship.

Horses in CA, on the other hand, is its own island of horse racing, where they can get away with not shipping out of state ever, and when they do, it's called "going East" as if every state that isn't CA is "East."

[Bullet Plane]

Well, I assumed it would be Devil May Care controlling things with her early speed. But Blind Luck really powered in the stretch and showed me that she was the real deal. She got down on her belly and toughed it out big time.

They have one hell of a three year old filly there.