AW-T-T-AW Pattern

[xfile]

Interesting pattern here. A win on the all-weather track then 2 ok races on the turf. Then back to the all-weather and wins to pay $29.40

http://www.fullcardreports.com/jm1.jpg

[illinoisbred]

All well and good if you're willing to play a horse trained by perhaps the most incompetent trainer on the Illinois circuit.

[xfile]

All well and good if you're willing to play a horse trained by perhaps the most incompetent trainer on the Illinois circuit.Even a broken clock is right twice a day. With surface pattern angle trends the trainer does not matter. Even a bum can fumble through and get a win. It is the pattern itself I am noting here.

[illinoisbred]

I agree with you XFile. I rarely factor in the trainer myself. I'm just writing from years of observations regarding this man's stock. Most of his starters go off at long odds because they seldom run and they generally look poor and unfit in the paddock.

[xfile]

From an Off-Topic post I had yesterday. I believe it applies well here:

Simple yet powerful quote. And really applies to horseplayers:

"Change your thoughts and you change your world."
— Norman Vincent Peale: Protestant preacher and author

[xfile]

I agree with you XFile. I rarely factor in the trainer myself. I'm just writing from years of observations regarding this man's stock. Most of his starters go off at long odds because they seldom run and they generally look poor and unfit in the paddock.
This horse won and then had 2 decent turf races in beating at least half the fields. He looked consistent to me and the pattern is undeniably interesting..

[illinoisbred]

Again, agree. Still, it's difficult to overcome 100's and 100's of observations. This is a man who a couple of falls ago at Hawthorne debuted a 10 or 12 yr. old 1st starter and was quoted my Marcus Hersh in the DRF saying the horse was telling him he wanted to race and he saw some great ability in the mornings. The horse trailed throughout,finishing last beaten approx. 70 lengths. Of course, he never ran again.

[WaHoo]

This horse won and then had 2 decent turf races in beating at least half the fields. He looked consistent to me and the pattern is undeniably interesting..

I think your better handicapping the Results than handicapping the race.

Why didn't you post this great looking horse in the Selections before they ran.

with all your Angles and Systems on your web page can you find just one horse today thats a longshot or do you need to wait on the results.. :lol:

[illinoisbred]

Your pattern put forth here has produced many winners through the years for Christine Janks. The returning dirt, now poly number, is often a big move forward.

[illinoisbred]

This horse won and then had 2 decent turf races in beating at least half the fields. He looked consistent to me and the pattern is undeniably interesting..
FCC and Canini got the earlier win on this horse. I will say, when Perez does win, it's often with an Ill-bred he claimed for rock-bottom price and within 3-5 starts takes an Ill-bred allowance race,much like this one did.

[Robert Goren]

I do not know anything about this trainer. But a lot low % trainers have patterns for their winners. About the only time they win is when they follow one of their patterns.

[xfile]

I do not know anything about this trainer. But a lot low % trainers have patterns for their winners. About the only time they win is when they follow one of their patterns.
This is true...

[xfile]

I think your better handicapping the Results than handicapping the race.

Why didn't you post this great looking horse in the Selections before they ran.

with all your Angles and Systems on your web page can you find just one horse today thats a longshot or do you need to wait on the results.. :lol:
Too bad you don't understand a good way to learn. What you laugh about is exactly how horseplayers (who are true students of the game) learn and improve. I've got a lot of students who are very happy with their own results when they follow my teachings with an open mind. I don't know if a horse is a bet until just before post time because I focus on overlays. If overlay odds are not big enough = no bet. A great service is that of TwinSpires.com that offers 'Conditional Wagering'. In that case a player does not need to watch the toteboard. Just set the odds and forget it.

[WaHoo]

Too bad you don't understand a good way to learn. What you laugh about is exactly how horseplayers (who are true students of the game) learn and improve. I've got a lot of students who are very happy with their own results when they follow my teachings with an open mind. I don't know if a horse is a bet until just before post time because I focus on overlays. If overlay odds are not big enough = no bet. A great service is that of TwinSpires.com that offers 'Conditional Wagering'. In that case a player does not need to watch the toteboard. Just set the odds and forget it.

I understand how to learn, i'm not sure you know how to Teach.


the trainer needs to know the horse to get him in the right spot to win and looks like this trainer Did. This horse had alot more Angles than just the switch in Surface. first this horse was a Verified Claim, for you thats when a horse is claimed and then entered at twice the amount he was claimed for.
I usually don't bet these unless they have odds at 15:1 or more and when the trainer bumped him up to 10k alw and he improved his speed rating 2nd race back then he bumps him up to $31k alw last race and held his speed rating at 84 he was trying to win, left him in at $35k alw this race and back to Dirt. i like the last workout he had it improve over the workout before his last race. then you can look at the M angle in his last race, he was 8 lenght back at start then gain to 3.5 then lost ground 6.2 then went 4 wide and got within 3 lenghts of the winner. there's a couple other things but i won't tell you those.

ps- I do like to watch a horse in post parade and going to the gate.

[Pell Mell]

I understand how to learn, i'm not sure you know how to Teach.


the trainer needs to know the horse to get him in the right spot to win and looks like this trainer Did. This horse had alot more Angles than just the switch in Surface. first this horse was a Verified Claim, for you thats when a horse is claimed and then entered at twice the amount he was claimed for.
I usually don't bet these unless they have odds at 15:1 or more and when the trainer bumped him up to 10k alw and he improved his speed rating 2nd race back then he bumps him up to $31k alw last race and held his speed rating at 84 he was trying to win, left him in at $35k alw this race and back to Dirt. i like the last workout he had it improve over the workout before his last race. then you can look at the M angle in his last race, he was 8 lenght back at start then gain to 3.5 then lost ground 6.2 then went 4 wide and got within 3 lenghts of the winner. there's a couple other things but i won't tell you those.

ps- I do like to watch a horse in post parade and going to the gate.

Where did you get the term "Verified Claim"?

[WaHoo]

Where did you get the term "Verified Claim"?


Ray Taulbots Angles

[Pell Mell]

Ray Taulbots Angles

I wrote the article in ATM Dec. 1972:ThmbUp:

[xfile]

Jeez you guys are so old you make this 45yo feel like a young man,,,,:cool:

[WaHoo]

I've got two Kids older than you :lol:

aug 22
Looking at Arlington 3rd race

#3 Aka Lily's Lad 6:1, i don't know if he can beat the #6 at 1.4
I'll take 6:1 on the horse.

what i like about this horse is his last race, last 3 calls he was not closer than 2 1/2 lenghts or further than 4 1/2 lenghts, he got 3rd, i like for them to get 4th.
next he was claim 3rd race back $16k then entered last two for $25k clm and today entered for $22.5 in a $27k claimer and he's getting weight off 4 lbs and the favorite is adding 3 lbs (the one that beat him last race).

Hopefully the trainer knows what he's doing, i'll just see if the drop in price and weight will make him a winner.

[WaHoo]

#3 Aka Lily's Lad 6:1, i don't know if he can beat the #6 at 1.4
I'll take 6:1 on the horse.




the #3 off at 8:1 beat the water truck coming around. looked a little weak in post and going to gate and ran that way, no excuses just couldn't do it today.