Anticipation

[WORKFORCE]

After years of Speed Ratings I believe the only profitable way of making a living is capitalising on a horse that’s about to produce a big figure next time out rather than banking on a modern day over raced thoroughbred to have the mentality and toughness to put back to back ratings together.

Countless times I've fallen victim of a big rating that the horse hasn't been able to reproduce; in fact the horse tends to drop dramatically in form and I was wondering if there was any value in actually laying horses that record big figures although I'd be inclined to tread more carefully around horses that have had under 6 runs to their names.

How do you go about spotting a horse about to produce his best? Obviously the figure pre-best isn't going to be that eye-catching which is why invariably these horses can sneak under the radar.

[Overlay]

I think that the answer is fourfold:

1) evaluating horses in light of multi-race figure averages;

2) viewing those averages in terms of probabilities associated with how the horses rank against each other, rather than as an absolute guarantee of next-race performance;

3) employing figures as one weighted component of a multi-factored evaluation approach; and

4) basing wagers on overall value offered by the selection, rather than isolating one horse to be played at any odds.

[Learned Hand35]

I think that the answer is fourfold:

1) evaluating horses in light of multi-race figure averages;



This is huge part of my handicapping. I average the last five races assuming no huge layoffs. I toss anomalous figs that are extremely high or low off the norms for the horse.

I really believe in consistency and will bet the consistent horses over the one that has a monstrous last out speed fig.

[Charlie D]

How do you go about spotting a horse about to produce his best?


By not relying on a speedfigure too much. Although figures derived from overall time are usefull, they do have limitations. An important part of thier use is knowing how and understanding why the horse ran a 60, 75, 90 or whatever