Who would you be more likely to play based on this limited information...

[Phantombridgejumpe]

Race as 8 horses, but 6 are clearly overmatched. Comes down to these 2, who are both 9/5.

1st Contender

Post 4:
3 lifetime starts

Race on 6/1: 1st by 2 in a $30K Purse Maiden at Belmont 6f - Beyer of 70

Race on 7/1: 1st by head in a $50,000 purse NW2 Race at Belmont 7f Beyer of 75

Race on 8/1: 1st by 1 in a $75,000 overnight stakes for 2 year olds at Belmont 7.5 f Beyer of 80


2nd Contender

Post 5:
3 lifetime starts

Race on 6/1: 3rd, losing by 2 in a $45 K Purse Maiden at Belmont 6f - Beyer of 85

Race on 7/1: 2nd, losing by a neck in a $60,000 purse NW2 Race at Belmont 7f Beyer of 92

Race on 8/1: 3rd, losing by a head (2 noses) in a $90,000 overnight stakes for 2 year olds at 7.5 f Beyer of 100



Do you prefer the 4 or the 5 - both have good and equal jockeys, trainers and pedigree

[kenwoodall2]

Bet the lowest Beyer.

[thaskalos]

Bet the higher Beyer. #5

[PaceAdvantage]

Based on this limited info (we don't know the distance of today's race or the surface of any of the past races OR the potential pace scenario), I easily go with post 5 as the overlay of the year.

No brainer. You have the added benefit of knowing the speed figures were earned at the same distance on the same day (however, we again do NOT know the surface - dirt or turf - which could be a major blunder)...why would anyone take the same price on a horse who was beating up on lesser and running tons slower while doing it?

I'm sure you're going to tell me next that this is a real world example and that post #4 won...but given the incomplete information, I don't see how anyone can go with the #4 unless you really, really value winning above all else in the past performances...that's not where your overlays are hiding...usually...

[andymays]

First of all what's the takeout? :)

I'm not betting unless I get a sizeable rebate. ;)

If it's on Poly I want to know what the temperature is and the last time they dumped water on it. :)

[Phantombridgejumpe]

Lets assume all races were on dirt - and so is todays race.

Lets assume today is at a flat mile.

This is NOT a real life situation - I attempted to create a scenario which would have a fair debate and no right/wrong answer.

[kenwoodall2]

Bet the lowest Beyer.
Were all of 5's races stretch duels?

[Show Me the Wire]

I would prefer the mutiple winner, post 4, over a multiple loser with higher speed figures, only because it is a two year old race.

Older horses, I would take the horse with the class edge and higher speed figures.

[PaceAdvantage]

I would prefer the mutiple winner, post 4, over a multiple loser with higher speed figures, only because it is a two year old race.

Older horses, I would take the horse with the class edge and higher speed figures.I somehow missed the fact that these were 2yos since that info only appears in the PP of the most recent race...my bad...

I don't think my choice would be different, but you certainly make a valid case for why someone might pick the #4. I still can't get past the fact that they are of equal price though. That's the overriding factor for me.

[DeanT]

This is NOT a real life situation - I attempted to create a scenario which would have a fair debate and no right/wrong answer.

How can there be no right and wrong answer? If the odds are the same there is only one right answer, because fair odds on the high Beyer horse is probably 1-5 in a two horse race, and you are giving us 9-5.

Is the low Beyer horse a first time Rudy Rodriguez?

Edit: Like Pace, I missed the 2yos line.... my bad as well. I would still hammer the faster horse, tho

[Show Me the Wire]

How can there be no right and wrong answer? If the odds are the same there is only one right answer, because fair odds on the high Beyer horse is probably 1-5 in a two horse race, and you are giving us 9-5.

Is the low Beyer horse a first time Rudy Rodriguez?


I think he is trying to establish what is the more important factor to the handicapper: Is it the ability to win or the ability to earn high speed figures in losing efforts?

[PaceAdvantage]

I think he is trying to establish what is the more important factor to the handicapper: Is it the ability to win or the ability to earn high speed figures in losing efforts?Given the magnitude of the disparity between the two runners, we aren't just talking about theoretical speed figures here.

Horse #5 just plain runs lights-out faster at the same distance on the same day on the same track. You really shouldn't need speed figures to tell you that in this case unless there was a monsoon between the races or some other mitigating factor which led to a giant variant shift.

[DeanT]

I think he is trying to establish what is the more important factor to the handicapper: Is it the ability to win or the ability to earn high speed figures in losing efforts?

I edited my post.

I got a new eye prescription last week. I am seeing things in strange ways.

Come to think of it, it helped my handicapping :)

[Show Me the Wire]

I somehow missed the fact that these were 2yos since that info only appears in the PP of the most recent race...my bad...

I don't think my choice would be different, but you certainly make a valid case for why someone might pick the #4. I still can't get past the fact that they are of equal price though. That's the overriding factor for me.

I agree in the non-hypothetical world, both horse wouldn't be equal prices and you might wager on the 4 due ot better odds.

[menifee]

Both horses would not be 9-5 and pace obviously would play a role.

But given your hypothetical, I would take the horse that has won with lower BSF. Horses that win in their conditions have class and I'll always believe class is more important than speed figures.

[Show Me the Wire]

Given the magnitude of the disparity between the two runners, we aren't just talking about theoretical speed figures here.

Horse #5 just plain runs lights-out faster at the same distance on the same day on the same track. You really shouldn't need speed figures to tell you that in this case unless there was a monsoon between the races or some other mitigating factor which led to a giant variant shift.

I agree with you about the example, and that is why I qualified my hypothetical answer to the hypothetical question.

[DeanT]

Given the magnitude of the disparity between the two runners, we aren't just talking about theoretical speed figures here.

Horse #5 just plain runs lights-out faster at the same distance on the same day on the same track. You really shouldn't need speed figures to tell you that in this case unless there was a monsoon between the races or some other mitigating factor which led to a giant variant shift.

I honestly cant see a situation where those two horses would be the same odds. The fast horse must have raced some serious horses in the company line; that alone would have him huge chalk in a race with a 75 beyer horse, imo.

Maybe the slow horse is a deep closer and won easily against terrible biases against cheaper. If then I could see it..... or maybe the fast horse is a trainer change......... to me.

[InsideThePylons-MW]

Do you prefer the 4 or the 5

Great question!

I'm going to have to run some simulations.....ask some experts.....do some legwork.....and I'll get back to you with the correct answer.

[InsideThePylons-MW]

I honestly cant see a situation where those two horses would be the same odds.

If somebody gets the jockey on the 5 to throw him down and bet on 4?

[senortout]

The #5 has undoubtedly been subjected to extreme pressures compared to the #4 and is developing negative characteristics. Although running along at a pace which must surely defeat #4, we still don't know where the bottom is on the repeat winner, where the #5 may actually be quite tired from those losing efforts. Still, if I were to take pencil to paper, I would be hard-pressed to wager against the quicker animal. I would prefer a place or show bet on the #4 and hope the #5 ran out, but surely not wager against its chances of winning today!

[Overlay]

Based solely on the information provided, and with the two at equal odds, I'd take the 5.

[Learned Hand35]

Both.

I am getting 9/5 on both horses. Either way I profit.

[Overlay]

Both.

I am getting 9/5 on both horses. Either way I profit.

The hypothetical situation said that the contention in the race came down to those two horses, but it didn't stipulate that each of those two necessarily had an equal chance to win. The 9-5 odds might represent value on one of the horses, but not on the other, based on your assessment of the actual winning chance of each. Granted, betting the same amount on both would be assured of producing a profit at the stated odds (assuming one of them does win), but not necessarily the maximum or optimum profit that could be made.

[Hanover1]

Betting aside, I like the 4 horse. He has learned how to win, and is on the improve. Since they are both 2 yr olds, and already on to the 4th lifetime start, I prefer winning ways rather than still trying to figure it out. Important to know the class of theoretical race, in case I missed it.

[jonnielu]

The #4 is the obvious winner, and if the public pounding of #5 allowed the odds on #4 to go up to 5-2, I would bet #4.


jdl

[Learned Hand35]

but not necessarily the maximum or optimum profit that could be made.


True, but I would rather take the diminished profit than put it all on one or the other. I would prefer not to take my chance with the Racing Gods throwing something wacky at me yet again.

Different philosphies I guess.

[Actor]

This is NOT a real life situation - I attempted to create a scenario which would have a fair debate and no right/wrong answer.
That explains one thing. I keep doing the math and every time I get the same result. There's no way two horses could be 9/5 in the same race.

[nativenova]

I personally would bet the 4 ,

the 5 seems he may be a sucker horse with his seconds and thirds near misses.

[kenwoodall2]

4 is used to winning, 5 losing. I bet both in real races.

[Phantombridgejumpe]

That explains one thing. I keep doing the math and every time I get the same result. There's no way two horses could be 9/5 in the same race.

Two different horses could certainly both be 9/5 in a race, heck I've seen two different horses be odds-on (4-5) in a race. When I first saw two horses at 4-5 in a race is when I first started asking questions about how much the tracks take out of the pool. Luckily I think I was about 10 years old - some people still don't know what takeout is.

[RaceBookJoe]

Based on the info, i think i would lean towards the #5. In real life, i would check the exacta pool and see if boxing the 4/5 would give me at least 5-1. Maybe for kicks, throw in a 4,5/4,5/all tri and hope for a bomb in the 3rd slot. rbj

[classhandicapper]

I would take the faster horse because the gap is so huge, but it's probably a lot closer than the speed figures indicate. If the gap in speed was narrower, I'd take the slower horse.