Taking The Chalk - The First 2 Picks

[jamey1977]

I do not want to work at Taco Bell and I do not want to live in a homeless shelter like my brother. I remember talking to a pro out here on The Southern Calif. circuit in 1995. He told me he bets the first 2 picks, real selective and he won half at 5 dollars and 60 cents. 600 dollars to win. Is this applicable? Is what he told me the truth ?. All of these overlay hounds. We are drowning in this overlay waiting ,while the favorites just win. Dick Mitchell says - The Favorite is still technically the best bet in the race. I am considering what the guy told me, the first 2 picks. I mean real selective. 50 plays a month - 25 wins- 5. 60 average. No one even goes to the track anymore. I presume the guy is still alive. It's been 15 years. I always say. The point is to win. Why should we wait 2 months for a frickin longshot when the Top 2 are winning half of the races anyway.? The only deal I am doing now is Jim Quinn's 33 percent winners at 7 dollars. All. else is voided. All I want to know is , is this viable.? Could we really approach half winners at 5.60. or even 6 dollars, over a long, long period on The South. Calif. circuit ? . Like many of these guys are claiming? Is it viable.? On The Southern Calif. circuit. There are some damn good players. My conclusion is their money is on The Top 2 picks . I have different posts. Different strategies. Because I want to succeed. I don't want to work at Taco Bell. I tried this longshot crap and lost 24 in a row. It's out. I think this guy was telling me the truth. Lived in Newport Beach, he didn't have a job. Just Horse Betting.

[Charlie D]

It doesn't matter whether odds offered are 4-6, 2-1, 4-1, 10-1, 30-1 or whatever. The aim is to identify the GOOD investments.


I will repeat, the aim is to identify the GOOD investments


The only thing that matters is, after a period of time your showing A profit and not a loss.

[thaskalos]

Wrong approach, IMO, Jamey. It's too tough to be right a large % of the time in today's game...you have to bet with value in mind.

Confining your bets to the first 2 betting choices is clearly not the way to go...unless you miss your brother, and are eager to join him. :)

PS...

Not everybody claiming to be a pro, is the "real" thing...even if they have no job, while they keep on making large bets at the windows.

An acquaintance of mine had everybody convinced for years, that he was a professional gambler...even-though his betting knowledge seemed suspect.

He was in his mid-thirties, single, no job, late model Mercedes...the whole bit.

And he was making HUGE bets...on everything!

It turned out that he had inherited a large sum of money from his deceased father.

He was last seen at a major Chicago intersection, with a bull-horn...spreading the word of God.

[Charlie D]

Anyone who resticts themselves to certain criteria will miss or pass GOOD investment opportunities.

[jamey1977]

Wrong approach, IMO, Jamey. It's too tough to be right a large % of the time in today's game...you have to bet with value in mind.

Confining your bets to the first 2 betting choices is clearly not the way to go...unless you miss your brother, and are eager to join him. :)

PS...

Not everybody claiming to be a pro, is the "real" thing...even if they have no job, while they keep on making large bets at the windows.

An acquaintance of mine had everybody convinced for years, that he was a professional gambler...even-though his betting knowledge seemed suspect.

He was in his mid-thirties, single, no job, late model Mercedes...the whole bit.

And he was making HUGE bets...on everything!

It turned out that he had inherited a large sum of money from his deceased father.

He was last seen at a major Chicago intersection, with a bull-horn...spreading the word of God.
Love what you say. Most of the so-called Pros are betting their double mortgages, which are running out- fast . And their father's inheritance which is also running out.. A few people have told me this. Another said his average win is 5.40 and he wins half. I don't want to join my brother. I am doing extensive research. Right now,

[jonnielu]

I do not want to work at Taco Bell and I do not want to live in a homeless shelter like my brother. I remember talking to a pro out here on The Southern Calif. circuit in 1995. He told me he bets the first 2 picks, real selective and he won half at 5 dollars and 60 cents. 600 dollars to win. Is this applicable? Is what he told me the truth ?. All of these overlay hounds. We are drowning in this overlay waiting ,while the favorites just win. Dick Mitchell says - The Favorite is still technically the best bet in the race. I am considering what the guy told me, the first 2 picks. I mean real selective. 50 plays a month - 25 wins- 5. 60 average. No one even goes to the track anymore. I presume the guy is still alive. It's been 15 years. I always say. The point is to win. Why should we wait 2 months for a frickin longshot when the Top 2 are winning half of the races anyway.? The only deal I am doing now is Jim Quinn's 33 percent winners at 7 dollars. All. else is voided. All I want to know is , is this viable.? Could we really approach half winners at 5.60. or even 6 dollars, over a long, long period on The South. Calif. circuit ? . Like many of these guys are claiming? Is it viable.? On The Southern Calif. circuit. There are some damn good players. My conclusion is their money is on The Top 2 picks . I have different posts. Different strategies. Because I want to succeed. I don't want to work at Taco Bell. I tried this longshot crap and lost 24 in a row. It's out. I think this guy was telling me the truth. Lived in Newport Beach, he didn't have a job. Just Horse Betting.

When it comes to betting strategies, there is no such thing as one size fits all, and there is a seat for everone in betting this game. When chosing a basic strategy for yourself, it should be one that you can commit yourself to, and it needs to fit you like your best suit of clothes. Because it will be you that makes it work for you.

I know a guy that has made a living at the windows for 60 years, his method revolves around the favorite, and he might be betting the fav half of the time. He bets to win period, does not bet turf or poly, he will say that he never makes a selection, he simply bets the horse that he can not refuse to bet.

He gets involved in analyzing every dirt race on the card, yet he has the will, the discipline, and constitution that will allow him to do that and make nary a bet all week. A busy betting week might involve 10 trips to the window, and he can hit the brakes with half of the horses in the gate. He has taught this to thousands of people through live seminars through the years, but he still does it best, because it fits him so perfectly.

So, the question is not so much what works best, but more what fits you perfectly.

jdl

[Actor]

Investing at the Race Track by William L. Scott describes a methodology that limits selections to the first three (not two) favorites on the tote board. I'm not recommending the book, neither am I panning it. I'm just pointing it out. I will say I found it entertaining. Good luck.

[therussmeister]

. All of these overlay hounds. We are drowning in this overlay waiting ,while the favorites just win.
Just because a horse is a favorite does not mean it is not an overlay.

[Canadian]

I certianly wouldn't call myself a winning player. But I lose alot less then I used to (if I had an ounce of disipline I'd be a break even player and alot of disipline I'd be a winning player). For the longest time I had the attitude of "beat the favorite", usually with horses I thought could make that dramatic sweeping move. I lost alot of cash that way. Now I just assume the favorite is going to win and spend alot of time trying to prove otherwise. When I can't I usally look for getting a decent exactor and when I can I keep looking till I find my winner. I never actually bet win on a heavy chalk, but I will be an exactor if I can find a 10-1 second place finisher. I also bet 10 straight tris when I see heavy chalk and can't argue with it. Has lessened the damage for me.

[completebill]

If you have read my previous posts, I am a user of the HTR computer handicapping program, but what I have to say on this issue is of universal application.

It is a MYTH that you cannot make a profit betting chalk. The truism is that you are, indeed, doomed to failure betting ALL chalk.

I use HTR's Robot feature to research and construct spot plays. I play my spot plays every day, and make significant and regular profit doing so. I currently have exactly 200(!!) active spot plays, all of which are long-term profitable. Many are longshot plays, subject to long runouts.

I treat my spot plays just like a mutual fund portfolio. The high % plays keep me profitable during the individual losing streaks of the more volatile plays.

My plays numbered 1-38 are all different, and each has a winning % that equals or exceeds 45%. The avg. mutuals range from $3.40 to $13.00. The large majority are favorites.

I recently had to withdraw a lot of monew from my ADW account, to cover a family emergency. In the last 10 days, I've LIMITED my plays to ONLY these 38 very low-priced plays, as a (hopefully) "sure-fire" way to replenish my betting bankroll. I've one losing day, and have averaged an r.o.i. of $1.34 diring this period.

You need to do the work, keep records, do the research, and eliminate questionable situations.

You CAN make money betting chalk. I am very, very close to "quitting" my day job (I'm an attorney), to play full time. I don't intend to limit myself just to these "chalk" plays, but I'm confident that I COULD support myself doing so.

[Robert Goren]

Anybody who thinks top two favorites can't go on 0 for 24 run, hasn't been around this game very long. Good luck with your endevors. You are going need a lot of it at the start.

[carlonr]

95% of the people betting on races are only interested in one thing: "having the winner"

5% are interested in only one thing: "winning money"


There is a world of difference between the two.

[jamey1977]

Anybody who thinks top two favorites can't go on 0 for 24 run, hasn't been around this game very long. Good luck with your endevors. You are going need a lot of it at the start.
There are easy passes. Easy D.Q's. Maiden winner moving up. Low Beyer 70's. Disqualify. They always lose. Horses with 30 or more lifetime starts. Disqualify, they always lose. I have 50 Disqualifying Rules that I follow to a T, there are reasons these favorites and second picks bite the big one and yes, like the others are doing. I want to limit the plays to 50 to 60 per month . I just have to have the guts to hang in there. Only my D.Q rules will protect me and yes betting the Top 2 picks blindly, one can easily lose a lot in a row. We are only stuck with the races they give us. But if the first 2 picks win Half of the races, we have a fighting chance, if we stick with those 2 selections and they don't have to always be the first 2 picks. Sometimes the 7 to 2, 3rd pick is hot and we can take that also if the first 2 are DQed. The point is profiting and bringing to an end all of these L.L.L L L L L L in the official plays collumn. I had so many L's. Someone would think my keyboard was stuck on L. That crap has to come to an end. LOL

[jonnielu]

There are easy passes. Easy D.Q's. Maiden winner moving up. Low Beyer 70's. Disqualify. They always lose. Horses with 30 or more lifetime starts. Disqualify, they always lose. I have 50 Disqualifying Rules that I follow to a T, there are reasons these favorites and second picks bite the big one and yes, like the others are doing. I want to limit the plays to 50 to 60 per month . I just have to have the guts to hang in there. Only my D.Q rules will protect me and yes betting the Top 2 picks blindly, one can easily lose a lot in a row. We are only stuck with the races they give us. But if the first 2 picks win Half of the races, we have a fighting chance, if we stick with those 2 selections and they don't have to always be the first 2 picks. Sometimes the 7 to 2, 3rd pick is hot and we can take that also if the first 2 are DQed. The point is profiting and bringing to an end all of these L.L.L L L L L L in the official plays collumn. I had so many L's. Someone would think my keyboard was stuck on L. That crap has to come to an end. LOL

Why would you disqualify a maiden winner?

jdl

[jamey1977]

Why would you disqualify a maiden winner?

jdl
I've gone through races for the past 7 months. here on the Southern. Calif. circuit. Maiden Claiming Winners who won their claiming race with a Beyer of in the 70's or lower. If they are one of the first 2 picks. Chances are they will lose. 1 out of 6 win. Now a Maiden Special winner- Beyer 80's. Yes, they have won before. But a maiden claiming or even special winner Beyer 70's or lower. They have lost so much they are an automatic. D.Q for me. But they win sometimes. Are there any long term Computer Wizards out there ? . Would love a 5000 race, run down. I'm trying to win 50 percent wins, so if they can't win. they are out. LOL

[pandy]

95% of the people betting on races are only interested in one thing: "having the winner"

5% are interested in only one thing: "winning money"


There is a world of difference between the two.

I believe you're right. I've handicapped for tip sheets in NY for many years. As a public handicapper, it helps to pick some longshot winners to get a following, but ultimately people want winners. If someone goes to the track and buys my sheet and I have a $20 winner in the first race, then 8 losers. They don't leave the track thinking, "wow, this guy produced an 11% profit on win bets." They think, wow, this bum only had one winner. Meanwhile the other guy's sheet has four winners with an average mutuel of $4.70, a losing day. "Hey, this guy had 4 winners, not bad."

[raybo]

I think, jamey, that there will be a huge problem with your proposed wagering strategy. It's true that favs win around 33% and top 2 around 50%, but, that is "all" favs and "all" top 2. When you insert "selective" into the equation you have just thrown out the 33% wins on favs and 50% wins on top 2.

[skate]

welppers, lots of good points here and i aint gonna screw things up.:kiss:

[PaceAdvantage]

If you have read my previous posts, I am a user of the HTR computer handicapping program, but what I have to say on this issue is of universal application.

It is a MYTH that you cannot make a profit betting chalk. The truism is that you are, indeed, doomed to failure betting ALL chalk.

I use HTR's Robot feature to research and construct spot plays. I play my spot plays every day, and make significant and regular profit doing so. I currently have exactly 200(!!) active spot plays, all of which are long-term profitable. Many are longshot plays, subject to long runouts.

I treat my spot plays just like a mutual fund portfolio. The high % plays keep me profitable during the individual losing streaks of the more volatile plays.

My plays numbered 1-38 are all different, and each has a winning % that equals or exceeds 45%. The avg. mutuals range from $3.40 to $13.00. The large majority are favorites.

I recently had to withdraw a lot of monew from my ADW account, to cover a family emergency. In the last 10 days, I've LIMITED my plays to ONLY these 38 very low-priced plays, as a (hopefully) "sure-fire" way to replenish my betting bankroll. I've one losing day, and have averaged an r.o.i. of $1.34 diring this period.

You need to do the work, keep records, do the research, and eliminate questionable situations.

You CAN make money betting chalk. I am very, very close to "quitting" my day job (I'm an attorney), to play full time. I don't intend to limit myself just to these "chalk" plays, but I'm confident that I COULD support myself doing so.You see, I knew there was a reason why I liked you. I'm an HTR guy too...your post here I find quite inspiring. Thanks for sharing.

[JBmadera]

two :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: for HTR! I could never go back to playing the races without it.

200 spot plays! That's incredible. I have 38 currently and I have a hard time keeping them going. Although now with KMS I don't spend as much time developing new plays.

I've got 5 plays that generally point to shorter priced horses (5/2 or less) and I use those plays as P3 and P4 singles.

I'm at the end of a long career in hi tech and I'm planning on using my race track profits to fund all my hobbies (thanks HTR!!).

[jamey1977]

I think, jamey, that there will be a huge problem with your proposed wagering strategy. It's true that favs win around 33% and top 2 around 50%, but, that is "all" favs and "all" top 2. When you insert "selective" into the equation you have just thrown out the 33% wins on favs and 50% wins on top 2.
But, say on a circuit. 162 races a month. 81 are won by the first 2 picks. Approx. We focus on the Top 2. Live horses, solid handicapping. Plays restricted. We have a chance. Limit our plays to the best 50 horses. The ones that are live. We have a shot. Many longshot players are ignoring this mathematical law. The first 2 are winning. Wanna win ? Go there. Every longshot that goes up and up in the odds , the odds increase and increase and by the time they ever come in. Our money is gone. Play the longshots, it's a challenge. But not for me. I am looking for profits. I do not want to be saying " Want fries with that " ? LOL

[pandy]

It's harder than it seems. If you are only going to bet either the favorite or second choice all the time you would need rebates but most ADW's give higher rebates for exotics. Without a rebate of at least 5% this is a tall task. You would also have to be extremely selective of course.

If I were going to try this, I would eliminate all closers and only bet horses that can leave the gate well, such as stalkers and speed horses. Many false favorites are deep closers. There was an odds on horse in the first at Monmouth today that was a terrible bet, deep closer from post 11 going 6f over a wet-fast track with only one front runner (who won as the 5-1 second choice and won easily). Now in this situation, you could have easily had the 5-1 winner if you are only going to bet either the 1st or 2nd choice, because the favorite was a bad 1-5 shot, so you had to bet the other horse.

You probably would have to eliminate horses under a certain odds range, perhaps 4-5 or money. That would lower your win percentage but it's almost impossible to break even on odds-on favorites.

[BELMONT 6-6-09]

It's harder than it seems. If you are only going to bet either the favorite or second choice all the time you would need rebates but most ADW's give higher rebates for exotics. Without a rebate of at least 5% this is a tall task. You would also have to be extremely selective of course.

If I were going to try this, I would eliminate all closers and only bet horses that can leave the gate well, such as stalkers and speed horses. Many false favorites are deep closers. There was an odds on horse in the first at Monmouth today that was a terrible bet, deep closer from post 11 going 6f over a wet-fast track with only one front runner (who won as the 5-1 second choice and won easily). Now in this situation, you could have easily had the 5-1 winner if you are only going to bet either the 1st or 2nd choice, because the favorite was a bad 1-5 shot, so you had to bet the other horse.

You probably would have to eliminate horses under a certain odds range, perhaps 4-5 or money. That would lower your win percentage but it's almost impossible to break even on odds-on favorites.

Pandy,
I would think that you would stay with competent trainers and acceptable post positions...what about a minimum win consistency requirement?

[pandy]

I'm with you on post and trainers. In races for winners it may be wise to eliminate any horse that has a poor lifetime win percentage because you don't want suck along types who rarely win, but I would still bet maiden races.

[BELMONT 6-6-09]

It's tough to put together an automatic elimination formula, howver, when sticking to the parameter of the first two betting choice I think it's a wise idea to have all the percentages with you including trainer, post postions, E or EP or P horses consistency...everything except a date rule which is a ridiculous elimination factor IMO.

[raybo]

But, say on a circuit. 162 races a month. 81 are won by the first 2 picks. Approx. We focus on the Top 2. Live horses, solid handicapping. Plays restricted. We have a chance. Limit our plays to the best 50 horses. The ones that are live. We have a shot. Many longshot players are ignoring this mathematical law. The first 2 are winning. Wanna win ? Go there. Every longshot that goes up and up in the odds , the odds increase and increase and by the time they ever come in. Our money is gone. Play the longshots, it's a challenge. But not for me. I am looking for profits. I do not want to be saying " Want fries with that " ? LOL

Look jamey, if you're a good enough handicapper to bet only the "best 50 horses", what are you doing messing around with this top 2 "system" crap? If you're that good, just handicap the races, forget about whether your selection is top 2 or not and only bet those horses that, in your opinion, have a distinct edge on the competition and are presenting you with "value". What does it matter if they're in the top 2 or not, if you're that good, that is?

What it boils down to, you're either good enough at handicapping AND wagering, or you're not. If you are, then you should have already figured out how to be successful. If you're not, then you got some more work to do. There aren't any shortcuts to success, if there was many more would be doing it.

[jamey1977]

Look jamey, if you're a good enough handicapper to bet only the "best 50 horses", what are you doing messing around with this top 2 "system" crap? If you're that good, just handicap the races, forget about whether your selection is top 2 or not and only bet those horses that, in your opinion, have a distinct edge on the competition and are presenting you with "value". What does it matter if they're in the top 2 or not, if you're that good, that is?

What it boils down to, you're either good enough at handicapping AND wagering, or you're not. If you are, then you should have already figured out how to be successful. If you're not, then you got some more work to do. There aren't any shortcuts to success, if there was many more would be doing it.
You are correct. I am betting and just taking off, to hell with the board. I had a previous thread and this thread was -Watch board or Bet and Leave.? I bet and leave. The morning line , I can usually tell what the final odds will be. I am studying and studying. I just bet 9 to 2 morning lines and down. All of the hot horses that I find, they usually end up being 1 of the first 2 anyway. But not all of the time. When I get the 5 to 1 overlay. I really score. I find being influenced by the crowd is restrictive. Some people never bet the favorite and will change their bet to make sure the horse they bet is not the favorite. Well, that's nice. You just missed out on a $ 6.60 winner. Betting and leaving puts an end to being scared, puts an end to in-decision. Puts an end to stupid side-bets that always lose. But a lot of the time. 80 percent of the time. The hot ones I find will go off as the first 2 picks and I am winning. For once I am starting to win. Waiting forever for longshots is not for me. Like I said I do not want to be saying " Want fries with that." Previous poster was right. Closers get their butts kicked all the time. I am so amazed Zenyatta has won 18 in a row. What a horse