Taking my ratings to another level

[WORKFORCE]

Hello,

This is my first post here after being a regular spectator for a few months and I have decided to get involved as long as you don’t mind an English time merchant on the website.

I haven’t got the experience in Speed Handicapping as some of you although I believe I’ve made up for that with extensive personal time in studying and researching practices and my personal databse in recent years. I started in 2007 before becoming a fully pledged handicapper in 2008 making a consistent profit for near 2 years now using a scarce Speed Handicapping tool I have built, but until recently I have seen an increase in the shortening of prices for horses that have produced decent times and have to redesign a new edge.

I am very happy with my pars which I have taken 2/3 years in being able to understand the value of the figure and how critically you can assess the potential of the performance and it would be catastrophic to change these, I was looking at the actual standard times I am working off because they are the standards of a very communal and commercial company and I was looking at producing my own which I’ve just started on my database of over 5,000 winners by adding in the actual times of the race and the class of the race, this is quite a lot of hard work and have to pinch myself and believe that it’s going to be worth it.

What I found interesting was Bill Quirins pace shapes and was wondering how people have incorporated this into their figures? Without the sectional times in the UK it would just be an added piece of work to go through the database and watch the videos to assign the shapes and I wouldn’t be able to keep on top of personally

How has everyone tried to stay ahead of the game?

[Edward DeVere]

How has everyone tried to stay ahead of the game?

Massive amounts of work; massive amounts of alcohol.

[JustRalph]

First off, what the hell is an "English time merchant" ?

[Charlie D]

what the hell is an "English time merchant" ?

UK version of CJ :D

[JBmadera]

Massive amounts of work; massive amounts of alcohol.

sounds just about right!

[Tom]

Massive amounts of work; massive amounts of alcohol.

And a red Flair pen.

[PhantomOnTour]

Very useful imo.

They help in understanding the flow of each race and 'explain' some horses' figs. Each race is assigned a slow(S), avg(A), or fast(F) designation for pace and final time. These designations are in relation to the class par for that race.
For instance: a closer who makes good progress in the lane in a slow-fast (SF) race has done very well. The frontrunners had it easy on the lead and the stretch run was fast, yet this horse made up ground. Theory holds that the leaders should have held their advantage with such a slow early pace.
Conversely, a frontrunner in a F paced race has done well if he holds his own in the stretch; much more so if he dueled and put away another pace setter.
You get the idea...one looks for horses who performed well against the 'flow' of the race, provided it was F at some point (pace or final time).

Now, what makes race F or S? Depends on whether it was a sprint or route and what surface it was on. Quirin says:

SPRINTS: + or - 3/10 pace and 3/5 final
ROUTES: he doesn't specify, but I use 4/10 pace and 4/5 final
TURF: not addressed by Quirin as he doesn't advocate using his style speed figs for turf, but I give a full second leeway for pace in routes as the early running varies wildly. Turf sprints are a place I would rather not venture! :)

[toetoe]

SPRINTS: + or - 3/10 pace and 3/5 final
ROUTES: he doesn't specify, but I use 4/10 pace and 4/5 final




I read Quirin, but please explain those fractions. Thanks. :)

[PhantomOnTour]

A sprint that is 3/10ths of second faster than par on pace is considered 'fast'. If it's 3/5ths of a second faster than par for the final time it is considered 'fast'.

PAR: 45.7-1:11.2
A race run in 45.4-1:10.6 would be fast-fast(FF).

[JustRalph]

UK version of CJ :D

Thanks! Great analogy too........crystal clear

[GaryG]

Long hours and rockabilly music.....I use pace in a subjective way.