What will Zenyatta win in 2010?

[horses4courses]

What strikes me the most about all the arguing and debate about Zenyatta on this site is this:

Assuming that Zenyatta makes it to the BC Classic, and faces a full field of top class dirt horses, in the event of winning or losing, where will we be after the race is over?

If she loses, will her supporters accept her defeat, and move on?
Or, will they be piping up that she should still win HOY because she's the greatest four-legged creature since Pegasus?

If she wins, will those who played down her chances, and doubted her greatness, suddenly praise a great mare?

One thing is certain.
If she makes it there, she either wins or loses.
There are different ways of doing both, but the outcome is paramount.

It could be a great moment in racing history......

[PaceAdvantage]

If she loses, will her supporters accept her defeat, and move on?HopefullyOr, will they be piping up that she should still win HOY because she's the greatest four-legged creature since Pegasus?Given the paucity of high quality opponents in her 2010 schedule to date, I don't see how any lucid Zenyatta supporter could argue such a cause.If she wins, will those who played down her chances, and doubted her greatness, suddenly praise a great mare?Most likely. That's how the game goes. You earn high praise when you run fast and beat top quality horses on their surface. She hasn't run very fast to date and she hasn't beaten many top quality horses over their surface (the 2009 BCC is a perfect example of this dilemma).

If she wins the BCC this year, she can't help but run fast and she can't help but beat top quality horses over their surface, unless as I pointed out in another thread, the field from the Clement L. Hirsch is all that shows up in November...but thank goodness, that isn't likely.

[bks]

If I had to bet, I'd wager she will go and she will win.

Afterward, her detractors will point to the relative weakness of the Classic field [and they'll be right], and lament that she didn't run against top competition more often.

In other words, even though she will be the only 3-time BC champion and a two-time winner of the BC Classic, she can't win.

[Tom]

Tough call. The Z group has nowhere near the experience accepting defeat as the RA camp has had! :lol:

Kidding!

Of course - every time she runs I think she is not going to get there today.
That's why she is fun to watch, like Forgo was fun to watch.

[horses4courses]

HopefullyGiven the paucity of high quality opponents in her 2010 schedule to date, I don't see how any lucid Zenyatta supporter could argue such a cause.Most likely. That's how the game goes. You earn high praise when you run fast and beat top quality horses on their surface. She hasn't run very fast to date and she hasn't beaten many top quality horses over their surface (the 2009 BCC is a perfect example of this dilemma).

If she wins the BCC this year, she can't help but run fast and she can't help but beat top quality horses over their surface, unless as I pointed out in another thread, the field from the Clement L. Hirsch is all that shows up in November...but thank goodness, that isn't likely.



That is a very reasonable assessment. :ThmbUp:

Your, and cj's, assessment that Zenyatta hasn't run fast can't be disputed.
It's a fact.

Where her supporters, like myself, differ from your viewpoint is that inherent
ability of great horses to pull out all the stops when the race is on the line.
If she doesn't have that extra gear required on the Churchill surface against the likes of Blame, or Quality Road, or Rachel A. (to name a few), then you were right all along.

Let's hope we get a great race come November!

It's setting up to be a great day for the sport.

[andymays]

If I had to bet, I'd wager she will go and she will win.

Afterward, her detractors will point to the relative weakness of the Classic field [and they'll be right], and lament that she didn't run against top competition more often.

In other words, even though she will be the only 3-time BC champion and a two-time winner of the BC Classic, she can't win.

The so called detractors have always only wanted to see her give a maximum performance on a dirt surface against the best. That's all. If she does that she will be given her due.

[Relwob Owner]

If I had to bet, I'd wager she will go and she will win.

Afterward, her detractors will point to the relative weakness of the Classic field [and they'll be right], and lament that she didn't run against top competition more often.

In other words, even though she will be the only 3-time BC champion and a two-time winner of the BC Classic, she can't win.


I disagree....if she wins out and wins the BC, she will definitely win HOY. Who else would?

[thaskalos]

She will win the BC Classic...but she will be the beneficiary of a 4-horse speed duel...and will only earn a "beyer" figure of 105, for her winning effort.

As a result...PA, along with all the other Zenyatta critics, will readily acknowledge...that she is the luckiest horse to have ever lived!

[bks]

It's understandable that they want to see that maximum effort, andy. So do I.

But I think you underestimate her detractors, just as they underestimate her.

Anyway, Nov 6 can't come soon enough.

[PaceAdvantage]

As a result...PA, along with all the other Zenyatta critics, will readily acknowledge...that she is the luckiest horse to have ever lived!I know you're only joking. We'll give you full credit for the theory nonetheless.

[cpitt84]

OTHER>


She will win all her races but I am uncertain about HOY.

I really, like most people, feel frustrated about Zen's connections and their cowardly way of running her in cupcake races.

If she ran against males before the BCC, then I could see her more deserving of HOY.

I have no doubt she will win against Blame, QR and RA.

Although, I don't want to see RA lose and I will unfortunately be rooting for RA.

[OTM Al]

She will win her 3rd straight champion older mare. Beyond that I guarantee nothing.

[letswastemoney]

She will win the BC Classic...but she will be the beneficiary of a 4-horse speed duel...and will only earn a "beyer" figure of 105, for her winning effort.

As a result...PA, along with all the other Zenyatta critics, will readily acknowledge...that she is the luckiest horse to have ever lived!Speed duels generally result in gigantic beyer figures, even if the winner is a stalker or closer.

The only way a slow beyer in the Classic can occur is if the pace is slow, because the final time would reflect that.

If they blitz in 22 and 45 early on though...I would bet money the final beyer will be 110+

[thaskalos]

Speed duels generally result in gigantic beyer figures, even if the winner is a stalker or closer.

The only way a slow beyer in the Classic can occur is if the pace is slow, because the final time would reflect that.

If they blitz in 22 and 45 early on though...I would bet money the final beyer will be 110+Not in a race the distance of the Classic, IMO...and not when the horses are suspect, as far as the distance is concerned.

A very fast half mile can easily cause the speed to collapse rather early...allowing a stretch runner to pick up the "exhausted" pieces...and win in a moderate final time.

If the race was a little shorter, I would agree with you though...

[BluegrassProf]

While I'm not agreeing with various other perspectives, this one deserves echoing:

OTHER>

I am uncertain about HOY.

I really, like most people, feel frustrated about Zen's connections and their cowardly way of running her in cupcake races.Unsurprisingly, he choices above neglect in general the 110% unchanging reality of disappointing seasonal campaigns from the marvelous mare's peoples. Thank ever-lubbin' goodness other people are looking at the entire breadth of the sport as something so much damned bigger and far more complex than "The Breeder's Cup Show."

November in the Ville will bring thrills and chills no doubt, and no disrespect to the winner of the Big Run; I just feel - as I have felt, and will absolutely continue to feel - that the game as a whole is waaaay too important to reduce to the single pseudo-world championship concoction; this is particularly true when we're talking about a potentially great horse who is being robbed outright - as her fans are - of a promise of something better by her side-of-mouth speaking connections.

If Zenyatta wins the BC, awesome; I'll be thrilled to see it. But make no mistake: it doesn't change her record to-date one single bit. It doesn't turn her other wins into something they're not, and it doesn't make her career over time any less shrug-worthy. She'd be the winner of two big races (for some like Andy perhaps, one big race), and a bunch of random small-time turns at home on plastic (grades are largely irrelevant...for those that say things like eclipse awards mean little, you should be the first to agree). For me, if she wins the BC, she's an extraordinary athlete - but she's still the Zenyatta that stuck around Cali racing against overmatched girls for whole years. She's still the Zenyatta that ran each race in her own way on style-favoring synthetics, leaving few surprised at victories. She's still the Zenyatta that lost HOY due to cupcake campaigning in 2009, and whose HOY candidacy will be questioned yet again after a painfully comparable 2010. She's still the Zenyatta whose connections, by virtue of their all-or-nothing logic, robbed me and everyone else of some truly historic racing.

Now, I've no doubt someone like Carl will come in here with big technicolor rebuttals like 18 FOR 18!!!!!!!!!!!! YYYYEAAAAAH!!!!!!!!!!, but he knows as well as I do the realities staring everyone right smack in the face: BC or no, Team Z has left us wanting, questioning, and above all, disappointed. We can all be excited for the racing yet to come, but rest assured, some of us have all of those feeling already indellibly marked in the books. Nothing and no one's changing that, not even ol' Carl's superfonts.

[FenceBored]

If I had to bet, I'd wager she will go and she will win.

Afterward, her detractors will point to the relative weakness of the Classic field [and they'll be right], and lament that she didn't run against top competition more often.

In other words, even though she will be the only 3-time BC champion and a two-time winner of the BC Classic, she can't win.


Bzzzzzt. Wrong. Goldikova will have achieved that a couple of hours earlier.

[carlonr]

The so called detractors have always only wanted to see her give a maximum performance on a dirt surface against the best. That's all. If she does that she will be given her due.


If she wins the BCC by 10 lengths in record breaking time, there will still be some that said she should have done more. Some have already stated so on this board. (not the 10 lengths and record breaking part) They'll still say, she should have been running more against males all year...etc.

[andymays]

If she wins the BCC by 10 lengths in record breaking time, there will still be some that said she should have done more. Some have already stated so on this board. (not the 10 lengths and record breaking part) They'll still say, she should have been running more against males all year...etc.

Wrong as usual.

You guys keep attributing stuff to people that isn't true so you can play the victim card. Aren't you tired of it yet?

[GaryG]

If she wins the BCC by 10 lengths in record breaking time, there will still be some that said she should have done more.That would make her HOY and the Real Deal. The probability of it happening are about the same as (with apologies to Roger Waters) Pigs on the Wing.

[HuggingTheRail]

I think she will win the next series of Dancing With the Stars....

[PaceAdvantage]

If she wins the BCC by 10 lengths in record breaking time, there will still be some that said she should have done more. Some have already stated so on this board. (not the 10 lengths and record breaking part) They'll still say, she should have been running more against males all year...etc.Wrong again. Maybe you should start another Zenyatta thread. There aren't enough already. :rolleyes:

[Tom]

I think she will win the next series of Dancing With the Stars....

:lol: Perfect!

[Audioslavery]

If she wins the BCC twice in a row, she'll go down as one of the greatest mares of all time. Maybe not with some of the self-deluded populace on here but with real horse racing fans.

If she doesn't win, she'll still have a place in the hearts of many, to win 18 times in a row coming from dead last and still managing to win is remarkable, it takes much more raw talent than QR or Rachel's style of running.

[Relwob Owner]

I think she will win the next series of Dancing With the Stars....

If she was ever on it, Sheriffs and Moss would make sure the other animals were the least talented dancers in the country and would make them dance in Zenyatta's own barn to ensure her own comfort level.....

[PaceAdvantage]

Maybe not with some of the self-deluded populace on here but with real horse racing fans."Real horse racing fans" haven't lost all perspective on the history of the game. That much is obvious.

[Relwob Owner]

[B][B][[I]B]If she wins the BCC twice in a row, she'll go down as one of the greatest mares of all time. Maybe not with some of the self-deluded populace on here but with real horse racing fans.


If she doesn't win, she'll still have a place in the hearts of many, to win 18 times in a row coming from dead last and still managing to win is remarkable, it takes much more raw talent than QR or Rachel's style of running.


Real horse racing fans are on here....the self deluded ones are the TVG-esque ones who fawn all over her and celebrate slow wins against restricted company....


Coming from dead last takes more raw talent? Really??????? How do you figure?

[FenceBored]

I think she will win the next series of Dancing With the Stars....

Been there, done that. Len already critiqued her and gave her a 10 during the last BC broadcast.

[Audioslavery]

[B][[I]B]


Real horse racing fans are on here....the self deluded ones are the TVG-esque ones who fawn all over her and celebrate slow wins against restricted company....


[B]Coming from dead last takes more raw talent? Really??????? How do you figure?

I don't think there is much of an argument there, the horse has to skip 4-5 wide in nearly every race, not to mention she has clicked heels with horses in the stretch on more than one occasion. She's an agile horse and has no problem scooting around traffic. To do it every time and still be the first one to the wire is incredible.

The TVG-esque fans are the fans that will keep the racetracks in business, so sit down and enjoy it instead of being so apprehensive.

[PaceAdvantage]

I don't think there is much of an argument there, the horse has to skip 4-5 wide in nearly every race, not to mention she has clicked heels with horses in the stretch on more than one occasion.In what race did she clip heels? That has never happened. She once was in a little bit of a jam with little room to maneuver, but she never clipped heels with any other horse.

[Relwob Owner]

I don't think there is much of an argument there, the horse has to skip 4-5 wide in nearly every race, not to mention she has clicked heels with horses in the stretch on more than one occasion. She's an agile horse and has no problem scooting around traffic. To do it every time and still be the first one to the wire is incredible.

The TVG-esque fans are the fans that will keep the racetracks in business, so sit down and enjoy it instead of being so apprehensive.


Wrong IMO. The TVG esque fans wont keep the sport in business....once Zenyatta retires, they will go away. What keeps racetracks in business are the day to day gamblers that the sport often pays no attention to....

Please xplain how having to go 4-5 wide means she has more raw talent? It may make her victories(94.7 of them in restricted races) more impressive but the correlation to her "raw" talent escapes me....

[FenceBored]

In what race did she clip heels? That has never happened. She once was in a little bit of a jam with little room to maneuver, but she never clipped heels with any other horse.

Not "clipped heels," "clicked heels." If you turn the volume waaaaay up as she turns for home you can hear her clearly say "there's no place like home, there's no place like home." Her ruby horseshoes then magically enable her to reach the finish line first.

[JohnGalt1]

I did not vote for the choices listed.

Zenyatta ahould be entered in both the--what I still call--the Distaff, and the Classic.

Whichever race Rachel chooses, Zenyatta's owner should choose.

Somebody's bluff should be called.

[Vinnie]

I am well aware that the following post is chalk full of supposition and conjecture at best because we don't at the moment have any idea of who will actually step foot in the starting gate come November 6th at the BC Classic. Hypothetically, say horses such as Z, RA, QR, Rail Trip, Blame and several other of the nations finest all reach the gate. If Quality Road runs the first half mile in 46 or 46.2 or 46.3, and just stays on with it pulling at the bridle like we have seen him in a couple of his monster efforts that he has actually put forth. Where in such a race would that put Zenyatta at the 1/2 mile stage? And, if she is too close or attentive to the pace (more so than normal), doesn't this also jeopardize her chances of producing that strong patented late run of hers? I am of the belief that if we can judge from her ordinary style of coming from way off the pace, she won't be anywhere in the picture and it will be simply too much to overcome to get it done with such a group. Of course, if I am wrong, I will bow to the Big Mare (and I do love Zenyatta by the way!)

I would love to hear commentary from anyone on the board with regard to this because I know that many on here have a far superior understanding of total pace than I do myself. :)

All the BEST and this isn't by any means intended to be a Zenyatta bash. I love the Big Mare.. :)

[andymays]

http://www.horseraceinsider.com/On-The-Line/comments/provincial-campaign-will-deny-zenyatta-her-rightful-place-in-history/#comments

[lamboguy]

she will win the hearts of evryone that knows anything about horseracing and those that wish they did

[Nikki1997]

I did not vote for the choices listed.

Zenyatta ahould be entered in both the--what I still call--the Distaff, and the Classic.

Whichever race Rachel chooses, Zenyatta's owner should choose.

Somebody's bluff should be called.

Somebody's bluff was already called and there's no reason to do it again.

I don't know why it is so difficult for some people to comprehend that Zenyatta's connections will not let what the other filly's connections choose for her, determine what they do for Z. If you think that Zenyatta's connections are going to choose a race based on what the other filly's connections choose, what a joke. I am amazed that this point continues to be ignored. The west coast connections do not care what is going on with the other filly. They do not care. They're focused on November 6th.

[DeanT]

I am well aware that the following post is chalk full of supposition and conjecture at best because we don't at the moment have any idea of who will actually step foot in the starting gate come November 6th at the BC Classic. Hypothetically, say horses such as Z, RA, QR, Rail Trip, Blame and several other of the nations finest all reach the gate. If Quality Road runs the first half mile in 46 or 46.2 or 46.3, and just stays on with it pulling at the bridle like we have seen him in a couple of his monster efforts that he has actually put forth. Where in such a race would that put Zenyatta at the 1/2 mile stage? And, if she is too close or attentive to the pace (more so than normal), doesn't this also jeopardize her chances of producing that strong patented late run of hers? I am of the belief that if we can judge from her ordinary style of coming from way off the pace, she won't be anywhere in the picture and it will be simply too much to overcome to get it done with such a group. Of course, if I am wrong, I will bow to the Big Mare (and I do love Zenyatta by the way!)

I would love to hear commentary from anyone on the board with regard to this because I know that many on here have a far superior understanding of total pace than I do myself. :)

All the BEST and this isn't by any means intended to be a Zenyatta bash. I love the Big Mare.. :)

Pletcher talks about pace w/ QR, and Siegal looks at it here in the context of the B Classic. If TP believes what he said (and they do not find anything amiss with QR to explain the sub par effort) we might see a hot pace in the Classic.

http://www.breederscup360.com/archives/2010/workouts-will-lead-zenyatta-back/

[Relwob Owner]

Somebody's bluff was already called and there's no reason to do it again.

I don't know why it is so difficult for some people to comprehend that Zenyatta's connections will not let what the other filly's connections choose for her, determine what they do for Z. If you think that Zenyatta's connections are going to choose a race based on what the other filly's connections choose, what a joke. I am amazed that this point continues to be ignored. The west coast connections do not care what is going on with the other filly. They do not care. They're focused on November 6th.


I agree with everything that you said and frankly, you didnt break any new ground....I think people comprehend everything you said just fine and many, many people dont like they way Z's camp is doing things, including me. Her connections obviously have every right to do what they want but as fans, we have every right to analyze and criticize it.....

[wisconsin]

What's best for the horse is what suits the owners. I'm fairly certain that they want Zenyatta to win her 19th no matter what, so no tough spot is going to happen. Their ultimate goal is to go into the BC undefeated at 19-0 and become the wonder horse we all hope she is, winning her 20th against the best, in grand fashion. It would be a storybook ending, for sure.

She only has to prove herself one time, and that's all that will matter.

[Vinnie]

[QUOTE=DeanT]Pletcher talks about pace w/ QR, and Siegal looks at it here in the context of the B Classic. If TP believes what he said (and they do not find anything amiss with QR to explain the sub par effort) we might see a hot pace in the Classic.

DeanT:

Thanks a bunch for the link. I really appreciate it. It helped to provide some insight into what TP might be thinking going forward with QR.

Have a great day today.

[OntheRail]

Somebody's bluff was already called and there's no reason to do it again.
They're focused on November 6th.

I agree they announced their intentions to run in the Personal Ensign and Team Zenyatta said NO WAAY :eek: .

So they will cross enter the Distaff and the Classic and meet her in whichever gate she picks ;) .

[cj]

Pletcher talks about pace w/ QR, and Siegal looks at it here in the context of the B Classic. If TP believes what he said (and they do not find anything amiss with QR to explain the sub par effort) we might see a hot pace in the Classic.

http://www.breederscup360.com/archives/2010/workouts-will-lead-zenyatta-back/

If he believes it, he is making a mistake. Most likely this will be tried in the JCGC and the horse will be beaten more handily. The horse rated and was relaxed, going faster isn't going to help. Sure, if the horse fought rating and was rank it might help, but that wasn't the case here.

[DeanT]

If he believes it, he is making a mistake. Most likely this will be tried in the JCGC and the horse will be beaten more handily. The horse rated and was relaxed, going faster isn't going to help. Sure, if the horse fought rating and was rank it might help, but that wasn't the case here.

I could not agree more. This is a classic excuse in racing when a horse does not do well, and they do not know why.

I think QR had an off day; they all do sometime. Going ballistic fractions is a total overreaction, that will end up costing him.

If he does win the JCGC by going fast and hanging on and he tries it in the Classic, the mutuels on the Blame-Z exacta box just went down.

[Nikki1997]

To Ontherail:

Yeah, Z's connections should uproot this mare this late in the year to accommodate a horse who has already been pulled from an agreed upon meeting. Wonder what you'd say if the circumstances were reversed. I'll just bet I could pretty much script that. :lol:

If Zenyatta is healthy, she'll go in the Classic. It will be up to the other horse's connections to decide where she goes.

[bisket]

zenyatta will dance through the paddock
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sFtjE96uOKk

than goes out and kicks arse, and has something special in store for the damater can club....
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ubvV498pyIM

da bisket makes his exotic wager. i have all three horses that finish 1st, 2nd, and 3rd in my wager, but somehow i don't collect :faint:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=omB-HVs6sRw

zenyatta wins hoy
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ud_XPH6Eix4

this replay gives you some appreciation of the trip she overcame. especially taking into consideration how much shorter santa anita's stretch is compared to churchill downs.

[ronsmac]

If she can maintain her fitness , she's a virtual lock in the breeders cup classic. I thought she should have run in it two yrs. The final 3/8ths that she routinely runs will bury anything in the race. She's a horse that speed figures are totally irrelevant. If the pace is fast enough she will put up a big number, if slow she'll put up a mediocre number but will win regardless.

[OntheRail]

To Ontherail:

Yeah, Z's connections should uproot this mare this late in the year to accommodate a horse who has already been pulled from an agreed upon meeting. Wonder what you'd say if the circumstances were reversed. I'll just bet I could pretty much script that. :lol:

If Zenyatta is healthy, she'll go in the Classic. It will be up to the other horse's connections to decide where she goes.
Yes Mikki/Nikki asking that they actually do something with the mare is just aghast and beyond reason. The PE is only 60 some odd days out from BC they could let her calm her nerves and get over any jet lag and give her a chance to retain some water if they had shipped in for it. Hey maybe Sherriffs is also afraid to fly as well... and that's why he can't do a east/west campaign for a month or so :lol: . As for scripting anything you'd be wrong on that as well... ;) .

[joanied]

I think she will win the next series of Dancing With the Stars....

:D Guess you don't know...she WAS on that stupid show (I don't watch it)...they had a clip of her to music...if nothing else, at least it gave horse racing a 30 second spot of national TV:ThmbUp:

[horses721]

To Ontherail:

Yeah, Z's connections should uproot this mare this late in the year to accommodate a horse who has already been pulled from an agreed upon meeting. Wonder what you'd say if the circumstances were reversed. I'll just bet I could pretty much script that. :lol:

If Zenyatta is healthy, she'll go in the Classic. It will be up to the other horse's connections to decide where she goes.

This is no longer about Rachel and Zenyatta meeting but more about Zenyatta continuing the career trend of racing against short fields of inferior filly opponents in the state of California. For all you Zenyatta defenders why not run in the Pacific Classic instead of the Hirsch if she is so great? If you think your horse is that good, do what Rachel has done 3 times and compete against the boys? You west coast crybabies will continue putting the blinders on and refuse to acknolwwdge she has had it made her whole career by racing on an unknown surface(polytrack) to almost all other fillies in this country and never having to leave her barn for almost her entire career. 2 trips to Oaklawn doesn't make her a world traveler.
The funniest thing I always read is that Zenyatta hates poly and loves the dirt. If that is so, why doesn't the trainer run her more on dirt? He has no problem shipping his other great filly to dirt tracks to try and defeat Rachel(here is where you use the excuse that Zenyatta doesn't like to travel). I think Zenatta is very good but I and many others will not know how great she is because I'm sure many of the past greats would have loved to spend their entire careers living in the same barn and never having to travel just like Zenyatta. Then again for all you Zenyatta apologists, she is the only horse in history that doesn't like to travel so lets call her greatest and create excuses for her to stay home.

[Relwob Owner]

zenyatta will dance through the paddock
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sFtjE96uOKk

than goes out and kicks arse, and has something special in store for the damater can club....
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ubvV498pyIM

da bisket makes his exotic wager. i have all three horses that finish 1st, 2nd, and 3rd in my wager, but somehow i don't collect :faint:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=omB-HVs6sRw

zenyatta wins hoy
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ud_XPH6Eix4

this replay gives you some appreciation of the trip she overcame. especially taking into consideration how much shorter santa anita's stretch is compared to churchill downs.


It is Horse of the Year, not Horse of the Day.....

[depalma113]

zenyatta wins hoy
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ud_XPH6Eix4

this replay gives you some appreciation of the trip she overcame. especially taking into consideration how much shorter santa anita's stretch is compared to churchill downs.

What was so difficult about her trip? The was on the rail until they came out of the far turn and than she moved out into the middle of the track. Smith couldn't have asked for an easier route.