How Do You Spot An Edge ?

[jamey1977]

I have gone through everything. Bet when you have an edge. Every handicapper says this. Well how do we know when we have an edge ? . Is it a race with 2 contenders and one goes to 3 to 5 and the other goes to 4 to 1 sort of like in The Blaine- Quality Road race.? Finding these types of betting for these races, takes forever. Might get off 7 plays in 2 weeks on 1 circuit. Or is the edge another matter.? How do we know when we have an edge? I am tired of putting money down and losing anyway. Everyone talks about an edge. How do we know ?

[Robert Goren]

I think have an edge when ever I think a horse has to fall down not to win and I am getting 2/1 or better. It is amazing how often they actually fall down or at least get blocked.;)

[TEJAS KIDD]

An edge is knowing something that the general public doesnt know.

For example.
A speed horse in a 6 horse field beats the gate, and the other 5 crash into each other leaving the gate. The speed horse goes wire to wire but barely holds on. Unless you watched the race, you wouldnt have known that. The general wagering public doesnt necessarily know what happened because all they'll see is the running line
1 1 1 1
The horse is worse than looked and will get overbet based on his prior performance.
Or a deep closer gets set up behind a 5 horse suicide duel. Today he's running in a paceless field.
General public wouldnt know how the race set up for him last time and his odds would be reflective of his most recent win.

[CincyHorseplayer]

The best edge is to use a betting strategy that has it's own built in edge.I only bet on horses to win at 2-1 or better.Because of that my average mutuel is 7/2 and has been for the most part since 2001.At a 30% clip you have better than a 40% ROI.The way I play exactas I get over a 60% ROI on a 25% hit rate.

That and pass races.Nothing turns your betting numbers around than not betting just to bet.

As far as actual in race edge,make your own betting lines.The edge will be staring you right in the face.

[Trotman]

jamey 1977 you mentioned about only getting off 7 plays in 2 weeks on 1 circuit, it sounds to me that you need more action than that and for me that's my type of play a very disiplined approach, but I do appreciate the action players because my prices get better :ThmbUp:

[thaskalos]

Edge = value, IMO. Your handicapping methods - whatever they may be - have to be able to put you on some horses that are not obvious to the wagering public. Many horses are WAY better than they look on paper.

Here is an example:

Speed horses that find themselves in races loaded with early speed, often finish way back at the wire...even though they might be 2nd or 3rd best in the race...especially if they have outside posts.

The "dynamics" of the race, can easily cause the second best horse to finish last, instead of second.

Put a couple of these badly tiring performances together, and this "quitting" speed horse can be completely ignored in a subsequent start.

But if this new race is devoid of early speed...our "badly tiring" horse can be as good a bet as a player can find in this game.

Look beyond the obvious...with your eye always on value.

[JustRalph]

The best edge is to use a betting strategy that has it's own built in edge.I only bet on horses to win at 2-1 or better.Because of that my average mutuel is 7/2 and has been for the most part since 2001.At a 30% clip you have better than a 40% ROI.The way I play exactas I get over a 60% ROI on a 25% hit rate.

you are my hero

[BombsAway Bob]

PP's are only 2/3rd's of the puzzle...
Trip & Track trends (Bias) are the hidden 1/3rd...
Mark Patterson @Mountaineer is doing the dirty work for us all here:
http://www.mtrracetrack.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=127:track-bias&catid=1:all-racing-news&Itemid=63 (http://www.mtrracetrack.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=127:track-bias&catid=1:all-racing-news&Itemid=63)
sample of his work...great info for the twice-a-week Mountain bettor :cool:
--------------
Fri, Jul 23 (fast) When up against the notorious dead-rail / dead -speed tag team, chalk players tap out quicker than Kimbo Slice. The reason is that they are selection oriented, and a course that punishes the kind of early acceleration and ground-saving trips that normally win races just isn't conducive to picking winners. Tonight's tickets reflected that truth as no (zero-zilch-nada) winner went favored, only two front-runners scored, and most winners swung wide.

Tues, Jul 20 (fast) Isn't it said that if you watch the last two minutes of an NBA contest, you've seen the whole game? Tonight's late double was like that, as the NJ Nets (a longshot) rallied around them in the feature, and the Lakers (a 6/5 chalk) wired the finale from the rail. Surface fair.

Mon, Jul 19 (fast) Off the turf tonight, but the mountain-main was fast. Five early-speed scores isn't all that unusual here, but when two of those are long odds and another almost 8-1, it's likely that front-runners had an edge. Two horses able to overcome the obvious bias raced close up and capitalized on speed-duels, and another sat patiently in second position while a breakaway leader exhausted herself and hit the wall.

Sun, Jul 18 (fast) Wow! What a difference from last night. No change in the weather, and, if anything, clockings were a tad quicker, but this evening, kickers ROCKED. And when closers weren't cleaning up, horses from several lengths back bid right around the speeds. As you would expect when fronts can't buy a win, the rail was a black hole and wide paths the fastest way to orbit the infield.

[cosmo96]

Good solid handicapping, and a little luck is the edge.

[Robert Goren]

Sometimes I might find a 2 or 3 yo first or second time starter who very greenly but looks like he might have been the best horse in the race. They usually get their act togather the next time they run.

[CincyHorseplayer]

you are my hero

Well do you agree or disagree?I can't tell.It's pretty simple,the math is right there.What's your approach?

[Canadian]

That and pass races.Nothing turns your betting numbers around than not betting just to bet.




My ultimate weakness. I don't know if I'll ever develope the disapline to do it. Oh how many times told myself I'm going to stay away from races.... only to find myself betting some dog track in god knows where. :bang:

[xfile]

Edge = value, IMO. Your handicapping methods - whatever they may be - have to be able to put you on some horses that are not obvious to the wagering public. Many horses are WAY better than they look on paper.

Here is an example:

Speed horses that find themselves in races loaded with early speed, often finish way back at the wire...even though they might be 2nd or 3rd best in the race...especially if they have outside posts.

The "dynamics" of the race, can easily cause the second best horse to finish last, instead of second.

Put a couple of these badly tiring performances together, and this "quitting" speed horse can be completely ignored in a subsequent start.

But if this new race is devoid of early speed...our "badly tiring" horse can be as good a bet as a player can find in this game.

Look beyond the obvious...with your eye always on value.
This post is 100% accurate and a proven way IMO

[Overlay]

In my experience, an edge does not necessarily have to consist of any one identifiable positive angle or factor. Instead, it can be a composite estimation of a horse’s winning chances, however derived (I prefer the use of performance statistics associated with a variety of fundamental handicapping factors), which the public then misjudges because of being too narrowly-focused.

For example, the public may assign too much importance to a single factor (such as a big figure or a hot jockey) that may be a positive indicator for the horse featuring it, but not to the extent that the public thinks. This leads to the relative bypassing of other horses in the race, none of which may be the one most likely winner, but which represent a better wagering proposition when comparing winning chances to odds than the horse(s) that the public is overbetting.

[misscashalot]

In my experience, an edge does not necessarily have to consist of any one identifiable positive angle or factor. Instead, it can be a composite estimation of a horse’s winning chances, however derived (I prefer the use of performance statistics associated with a variety of fundamental handicapping factors), which the public then misjudges because of being too narrowly-focused.

For example, the public may assign too much importance to a single factor (such as a big figure or a hot jockey) that may be a positive indicator for the horse featuring it, but not to the extent that the public thinks. This leads to the relative bypassing of other horses in the race, none of which may be the one most likely winner, but which represent a better wagering proposition when comparing winning chances to odds than the horse(s) that the public is overbetting.

Yes very well said...also that It's a moving target. The amount of movement is greater if you narrow your outlook. And is dependent largely on the win %.
A 30% win can go 8 or more times btwn wins. The higher the roi, the more patience you have. You need to know this so as not give up with initial dry period. It's subtle, and it's your comfort level.

[JBmadera]

In my mind “edge” is a certain set of handicapping criteria which yield a positive ROI over time. To that end I use HTR Robot functionality to develop/test my spot plays.

[skate]

and pass races.Nothing turns your betting numbers around than not betting just to bet.




i like the above and what you said in your first post "seven races played in 14 days" or something similar.


As far as an edge is concerned, these are strong mostely because You have THE control. You limit and pounce.


So, if you cap like PA, you limit all...and go from there.

[CincyHorseplayer]

i like the above and what you said in your first post "seven races played in 14 days" or something similar.


As far as an edge is concerned, these are strong mostely because You have THE control. You limit and pounce.


So, if you cap like PA, you limit all...and go from there.

I have no preset number of races I allow myself to play.Betting an Ohio 7/7 card and Saratoga and a few stakes races from elsewhere I could bet as many as 10 races a day.On a single card though I might only bet 2-3 races.

I have my restrictions on bets though.Like I said I will not bet to win on any horse under 2-1.Horses I love under 2-1 I'll play top heavy in 1 or 2 exacta/DD combinations.I'll only bet 1% of my bankroll if it will pay 5% or better of my bankroll.Or 2% of my bankroll if it will pay 10% or better.

It just leaves me with good decisions.No edge=pass the race.If you're playing into a 40-65% ROI situation there is no haste to do it all right now.You pick your spots and wait knowing over time the numbers will favor you.

[rstone]

I have no preset number of races I allow myself to play.Betting an Ohio 7/7 card and Saratoga and a few stakes races from elsewhere I could bet as many as 10 races a day.On a single card though I might only bet 2-3 races.

I have my restrictions on bets though.Like I said I will not bet to win on any horse under 2-1.Horses I love under 2-1 I'll play top heavy in 1 or 2 exacta/DD combinations.I'll only bet 1% of my bankroll if it will pay 5% or better of my bankroll.Or 2% of my bankroll if it will pay 10% or better.

It just leaves me with good decisions.No edge=pass the race.If you're playing into a 40-65% ROI situation there is no haste to do it all right now.You pick your spots and wait knowing over time the numbers will favor you.

So I guess that means you avoid Perry Outz and his barrage of 2-5 shots day after day after day...which is probably the smart way to go :)

[CincyHorseplayer]

So I guess that means you avoid Perry Outz and his barrage of 2-5 shots day after day after day...which is probably the smart way to go :)

The last 2 days I've bet River Downs there were only 4 of 14 winners that paid 2-1 or better.I had 2 of them at 5-1 and 7/2.It's pretty bad.That's what started me on betting exactas heavily back in 1999.

[jonnielu]

I have gone through everything. Bet when you have an edge. Every handicapper says this. Well how do we know when we have an edge ? . Is it a race with 2 contenders and one goes to 3 to 5 and the other goes to 4 to 1 sort of like in The Blaine- Quality Road race.? Finding these types of betting for these races, takes forever. Might get off 7 plays in 2 weeks on 1 circuit. Or is the edge another matter.? How do we know when we have an edge? I am tired of putting money down and losing anyway. Everyone talks about an edge. How do we know ?

You have an edge when you have found a consistency, and are willing to develop the discipline that will enable you to exploit it for yourself. It doesn't have to be complicated, it doesn't have to be a big secret. If you believe that there are consistencies in the game that you can take advantage of, you are already ahead of 70% of bettors.

In the modern game, the racing secretary has plenty of similar horses to throw at you for every condition he has written. It is easy to put 4 sound contenders in every 8 horse field, and there never was such a huge difference in horses. 30 years ago, maybe. Everybody agrees that win betting is a tough game these days.

But, there are some things that remain the same, perhaps that is a testament to their overall strength, and that strength may be something that you can tap into.

Take for instance, the win percentage of the favorite. About 30%, and holding pretty steady throughout the history of pari-mutual wagering. Add in the other three choices, and we are up around 75% of winners, almost on a daily basis without even looking at a past performance line. Pretty consistent.

Add to that, the average North American win mutuel has been around 4-1 for that whole time also. All tracks, all conditions, all surfaces, the handicapper is spending most of his time trying to decide which of these 4 horses to bet, which one is the "best". Tossing, and re-tossing past performance minutia looking for an edge for one horse, out of 5.

The 5th horse? The 25 - 30% of winners that come from the field.

When, most of the time, the edge for 1 will be something that takes place after the gate opens today. Hard to find in the form, but you will run across some from time to time. But, there are probably several ways that you can make an edge for yourself with these consistencies, although any particular one in itself may not be a big edge.

For example, let's take the 3rd choice at 15% win rate. You could make this horses consistency into a serious edge for yourself even betting it all day, as long as you have a big enough bankroll to bet in progression. And your overall financial situation has you where you could not care less about winning or losing, or losing your whole bankroll. Your money would really be the bigger part of your edge.

If you don't have 17 $20,000 bankrolls laying around, then you would have to make your edge in knowing when to bet this horse and when to sit on your hands. You can be wrong half of the time, but you would have to develop your skill at least to that point to have made this a serious edge for yourself.

jdl

[rstone]

The last 2 days I've bet River Downs there were only 4 of 14 winners that paid 2-1 or better.I had 2 of them at 5-1 and 7/2.It's pretty bad.That's what started me on betting exactas heavily back in 1999.
Yeah, the entire Ohio 7/7 cards have been pretty chalk heavy the past couple of months(Except for "Longshot" Lyndon Hannigan winning three times in a row with the same horse at 105-1, 30-1, and 10-1 respectively :bang: ). Between the lack of horses and between Joe Woodard and Jamie Ness bringing in horses that just stomp the competition at River and Thistledown regularly, it's been hard to find some bettable races.

Another thing that's really frustrating is how fast the odds can change because there isn't much being bet and they take too long to calculate odds...plenty of times this summer I've bet a 4-1 shot with 1 MTP only to have them leave the gate at even money...

[ohbaby]

I think one of the strongest edges you can develop is learning to read the horses in the post parade. I'd say at least 7 out of 10 horseplayers have no clue on what a horse is telling you in their warmups. Hell, I doubt 7 out of 10 even bother to look at the post parade.

Sometimes horses just stand out in the PP. Caught that horse that beat Big Brown in the Preakness at 30-1, just on his looks in warmup.

Bernardini always looked great in the post parade.

There was a horse recently at Del Mar on the turf ALW NW1x, who looked like a champion in the warmups. He was 7-1. Then those blockheads on TVG noticed him and even though they did not pick him in their early selections. All said this horse would not lose. He got bet down to 7-2 and naturally won.

It isn't all that often they stand out tons the best, but when they do.....

In stakes like the Haskell recently, there were a few who looked great including Looking At Lucky, Ice box, who didn't run that well, and a few others. The key is when one stands above them all.

[riskman]

If you do not have a positive ROI then you do not have an edge.

[magwell]

This is a great thread thanks to all who posted so far.

[Hoofhearted]

Take for instance, the win percentage of the favorite. About 30% ...........

The 5th horse? The 25 - 30% of winners that come from the field ...........

For example, let's take the 3rd choice at 15% win rate .........................


A cautionary word to any gambler who might be bewitched into embarking on a "progression" or Martingale-style staking methodology based on Win Rate.

It can be hazardous to the pocket to think of Win Rate in terms of bare percentage alone.
One needs to consider the distribution of that probability as well. It is easy to confuse the subtle but hugely important difference between Win Rate and the fundamental mathematical concepts of distribution and "Degree Of Chance".

Without going into the mathematics of it, in the quoted example of a Win Rate of 15% the 99.9% Degree of Chance for this event to occur is 52/1 (A 100% Degree Of Chance doesn't exist). This means there is a "worse case scenario" that it could take 52 plays on 15% Win Rate shot before you hit. Even with a 33% Favourite win rate, the 99.9% Degree Of Chance is 24/1. Careful how you go, guys. ;)


Back to the topic of the thread, I have no doubt that an "edge" is found when you find value. Finding value in turn means finding an element that the general betting public has overlooked.

[Canadian]

Without going into the mathematics of it, in the quoted example of a Win Rate of 15% the 99.9% Degree of Chance for this event to occur is 52/1 (A 100% Degree Of Chance doesn't exist). This means there is a "worse case scenario" that it could take 52 plays on 15% Win Rate shot before you hit. Even with a 33% Favourite win rate, the 99.9% Degree Of Chance is 24/1. Careful how you go, guys. ;)


Actually I'd love to see you go in to the mathmatics of it. Perhaps in a a differnent thread. I know I've heard of it discussed before but couldn't find it. I want to be able to figure out my worst case scenerios with my 5% shots or my 10% or what ever.... for that matter my best case scenerios. Any help would be appriciated.

[Hoofhearted]

Hello Canadian,

The Degree Of Certainty of an event happening is perhaps best determined by the logarithmic expression .....................
log 1 - DC / log 1 - p = N
where:
N is the number of events,
DC is the Degree Of Certainty,
p is the probability ( Win Rate)

Thus in your instance, a 10% Win Rate would have a 99.9% Degree Of Certainty to happen of 66/1. Of course it could happen on your very first play, too. The Degree Of Certainty is the worse case scenario, but it should be borne in mind. :)

[Hoofhearted]

Thinking .............

If you are uncomfortable using logarithmic functions, perhaps a table I have come across would be of more practical use to you.

Take the RED column as an example. A coin toss, where the Win Rate (probability) of "heads" coming up will be 50% (One in Two) or 1/2. Scroll to the bottom of the chart and you will see the 99.9% Degree Of Chance of it happening is 10/1.

http://i305.photobucket.com/albums/nn225/icebreaker_010/DegreeOfChance.jpg

[Canadian]

Thinking .............

If you are uncomfortable using logarithmic functions, perhaps a table I have come across would be of more practical use to you.

Take the RED column as an example. A coin toss, where the Win Rate (probability) of "heads" coming up will be 50% (One in Two) or 1/2. Scroll to the bottom of the chart and you will see the 99.9% Degree Of Chance of it happening is 10/1.

http://i305.photobucket.com/albums/nn225/icebreaker_010/DegreeOfChance.jpg


Thank you. That's exactly what I am looking for.

[TheBid9]

First off, your edge is selectivity. The most powerful tool/weapon a handicapper possesses is the discipline to pass a low percentage race. Then find your favorite and ascertain whether or not he's legit. If he is you can pass or work him into your wagers. You can still exploit a race with a live favorite. Then create your betting line. I create mine intuitively and only include my contenders. I don't account for every horse in the race. This procedure has worked well, for me, for decades! An edge is knowledge and self discipline. Keeping wagering records can provide you your edge. They'll point you to your "profitable" tracks, distances, surfaces and wagers!

[classhandicapper]

Most of my plays involve me thinking a horse is either better than he looks on paper or way more likely to run well than the typical horse.

If I am keying against a horse, the opposite is true.

I am starting to think that of the two, so many people have good information it's getting harder to find a horse that's better than he looks. On the flip side, so many astute handicappers dismiss or under rate the importance of trainers, it may actually be getting easier to find value by knowing that a horse is way more likely to either fire his "A" race or run a new peak than the other horses because of the preparation by a great trainer.