Clement Hirsch Replay

[Watcher]

EuDrLFwiLL0

[andymays]

She moved earlier than normal and barely won. They keep saying she wasn't all out but she was all out!

[PaceAdvantage]

She moved earlier than normal and barely won. They keep saying she wasn't all out but she was all out!You almost got your wish Andy...

[Speed Figure]

She had to move early! that was by far the slowest pace in her pp's she's ran against!

[andymays]

You almost got your wish Andy...

Do you know how much fun I would have had with the Jerry Jam quotes? The board would be rockin for days.

Rinterval ran great and was coming back on at the end with Zenyatta all out under the whip.

[Tom]

I don't think she was all out.
She ran 53 feet further from the 3/4 home than the place horse.
If they ran around the tracks, no one catches her.

[PaceAdvantage]

Rinterval ran great and was coming back on at the end with Zenyatta all out under the whip.I was pretty shocked to see Rinterval come back at Zenyatta like that...not a terribly great sign if you ask me...Rinterval was passed by Dance to My Tune briefly but never backed off...

[andymays]

I was pretty shocked to see Rinterval come back at Zenyatta like that...not a terribly great sign if you ask me...Rinterval was passed by Dance to My Tune briefly but never backed off...

I sent Jerry an email congratulating him for the great try. I also said that if Bejarano moved a little sooner on her she may have won. She was coming back at Z in the end. Z was all out under the whip.

[Relwob Owner]

She moved earlier than normal and barely won. They keep saying she wasn't all out but she was all out!


Andy, arent your on the West Coast? I thought anyone who questioned Z's greatness was from the East????:)

[Tom]

The place horse should have had a lot of kick left - she did virtually NOTHING early on. :lol:

Turtle pace and Z spots her 53 feet......and she still can't get by. Looked like Z was pulling away again in the last strides.

[Zenyatta To Crush]

I was pretty shocked to see Rinterval come back at Zenyatta like that...not a terribly great sign if you ask me...
The only other race where this happened was her first Vanity win. She sometimes lets up a little when she takes the lead so early.

I'm going to avoid all Zenyatta related topics now because they are just going to turn into silly arguments. Zenyatta runs in so many paceless races and find ways to win from well off the pace and there are still people out there saying "She only beat Rinterval by 1/2 a length, how the heck is she gonna beat the likes of Blame and Quality Road?"

Its not even worth arguing about. I'll just wait until she wins the Classic before I discuss her again...although I'm sure there will still be naysayers even if she won the Classic for her 20th straight win.

[andymays]

Andy, arent your from the West Coast? I thought all of the Zenyatta "haters" were from the East?:)

I'm a synthetic hater without question. If I had the authority I would put everyone in jail for 4 years that put them in. I would scoop up all the sythetic crap and put it in the jail for them to run on every day. Then I would put it in their cells. Also in the bedding for padding and on the floor. If I could make toilet paper out of I would give them that too.

Other than that I try to be objective. ;)

[boogazie]

I watched the video a few times, I don't see Rinterval "coming back", looks like the margin stays the same towards the end of the race.

In the end, she won again, going very wide and against a slow pace. Some might try to overanalyze it like her near loss against Anabaa's Creation last year in the same race, but we all know how that turned out.

[PaceAdvantage]

I agree that Zenyatta wasn't going to lose even if the race were another quarter mile longer...she's just that good over the synthetics...an absolute freak...and it doesn't hurt that her competition is just plain sucky most of the time.

However, to extrapolate that to say she would be perfectly capable of beating Grade 1 males over a dirt surface is the height of insanity.

There is no way she wins the Whitney today...my opinion of course...

Too bad we have to live in the world of the theoretical when it comes to Zenyatta.

[Beachbabe]

I don't care for Jerry Moss; I'm not a big Shirreff's fan; and I was not a Zenyatta "goo-goo"; but the more I see her & the more I think about her races, the more of a believer I've become.
Its hard enough to go undefeated; to win 18 races in a row....but to do it with the running style of Zenyatta's is almost impossible.
Closers are prone to more ways to lose a race than any other type.
There's the trip for one...you can get blocked; have a horse stop in front of you; get carried very wide.
But even more importantly, there's the pace.
If what she's accomplished shows anything about Zenyatta, it shows she has tons of heart; she "knows" where the finish line is; and she likes to win.
And, to the handicapper as well as the fan, they are 3 great qualities you'd want in a horse.

[MickJ26]

So, everybody wins.
Del Mar gets their gate and a nice handle.
Thousands of fans go home happy.
Zenyatta gets another notch in her belt.
TVG passes out Kleenex to all their staff.
Two more to go before she retires 20-0.

[tucker6]

So, everybody wins.
Del Mar gets their gate and a nice handle.
Thousands of fans go home happy.
Zenyatta gets another notch in her belt.
TVG passes out Kleenex to all their staff.
Two more to go before she retires 20-0.

I'll say it again. Zenyatta retires 19-0. She never races at CD.

[boogazie]

Everything the connections have said and done so far this year (which has irritated many) seems to indicate that she is being prepped for a huge run in the BCC classic. Do you have inside information, what are you basing it your opinion on?

[jelly]

I'll say it again. Zenyatta retires 19-0. She never races at CD.



Agree,she'll never race again outside of california.

[letswastemoney]

Everything the connections have said and done so far this year (which has irritated many) seems to indicate that she is being prepped for a huge run in the BCC classic. Do you have inside information, what are you basing it your opinion on?
Have you ever read a direct quote from Moss or Shirreffs that she is being pointed towards the BC Classic? I've never seen one. I've only read the reporter assuming that's where they're pointing, but I have never read the spoken words of Zenyatta's connections saying they want the Classic.

[Beachbabe]

Agree,she'll never race again outside of california.

IMHO, I don't think the Moss' "unretired" her just to win a few races in Cal.
They want that HOY this year & with Blame & "LuckY" getting all this steam, they now know they're going to have to run a big one in the BC.
Now, if both those other two "fall on their faces" before Nov. then maybe they back out & figure they have the title wrapped up without the BC.

[horses4courses]

I have doubts that Zenyatta would have won the Whitney today.
It would have been a very stiff task.

The pace was slow, which would have hurt her chances.
10 furlongs is, also, a better distance for Z against the best horses.
Shirreffs would likely have added a rabbit to the Whitney field, had that race ever been on their radar.

Every race she has won this year in California, and Arkansas, was open to all
fillies and mares. The opposition tends to thin out when you are that good.
She hasn't dodged anyone. The connections don't feel the need to take the show on the road in search of the latest contender.

The BC Classic should be the ultimate test for Zenyatta this year.
If you are a serious contender for 2010 HOY, that's the place to be.
That race could well see her going for win #20.

That's when Team Zenyatta will open the marbles bag - winner take all.

[boogazie]

"My only influence is that we want to run her a couple of times in preparation for the Breeders' Cup," Shirreffs added. "The options aren't that many."

http://www.racingpost.com/news/horse-racing/del-mar-usa-zenyatta-chases-third-clement-hirsch/751911/

[Tom]

She will go east. They were emphatic today that the Pacific Classic is out, so nothing else coming up out west.
I say a start at Belmont, then CD, for either the Classic of Distaff, depending on her Belmont race.

I also predict QR will race once more then retire, same for Rachael, maybe twice more. Neither will be around in November.

Plan accordingly. :rolleyes:

[andymays]

She will go east. They were emphatic today that the Pacific Classic is out, so nothing else coming up out west.
I say a start at Belmont, then CD, for either the Classic of Distaff, depending on her Belmont race.

I also predict QR will race once more then retire, same for Rachael, maybe twice more. Neither will be around in November.

Plan accordingly. :rolleyes:

I think the Beldame is the one. We'll see. Then we can do the same thing all over again. ;)

[MickJ26]

What about the Spinster at Keeneland?
It's on poly and it used to be a prestigious race when it was on dirt.
It would give her Kentucky-cred.
Perfect.

[Tom]

I think the Beldame is the one. We'll see. Then we can
do the same thing all over again. ;)

To be fair, if Z meets RA at Belmont, and RA wins, will ANYONE bring up the speed bias of dirt that aided her win? Or will we hear a different song from the choir?

[andymays]

To be fair, if Z meets RA at Belmont, and RA wins, will ANYONE bring up the speed bias of dirt that aided her win? Or will we hear a different song from the choir?

Right now I'd give Z the edge. Last year I think RA would have beat the hell out of her.

[born2ride]

I think the Beldame is the one. We'll see. Then we can do the same thing all over again. ;)

I don't know. Shirreffs isn't one to ship to NY then straight to CD, and he certainly won't ship to NY, back to Cali, then on to CD. I'd bet her next race is her namesake, then she is off to CD.

[Hanover1]

I heard Moss say "at a 1-1/4 later in the year". They have their eyes on the prize.......And Pac Classic was emphatic NO.

[horses4courses]

A race in Sept/Oct including RA and Z would, imo, hurt both their chances in the BC Classic.

I'd be surprised if it happens....

[tzipi]

They should be both running in the Personal Ensign. A top race on a surface they both handle. Plus it's at Zens perfect distance. That would've been awesome.

[Shelby]

I'll say it again. Zenyatta retires 19-0. She never races at CD.

I humbly disagree.

[Wickel]

Rinterval ran great and was coming back on at the end with Zenyatta all out under the whip.

What race were you watching? She never felt the whip. She loped down the lane. She would have stayed in front another time around, even after showing a new dimension of racing closer to the pace than usual. What a mare. She very well may be the best on the plante!!.

[andymays]

What race were you watching? She never felt the whip. She loped down the lane. She would have stayed in front another time around, even after showing a new dimension of racing closer to the pace than usual. What a mare. She very well may be the best on the plante!!.


Are you Steve Andersen of the DRF? He said the same thing. He says he has the facts. Maybe I'm dillusional but I count 9 whips down to the wire.

http://www.drf.com/blogs/del-mar-zenyatta-legend-grows

Excerpt:

Here are the facts: Zenyatta won the Grade 1 Clement Hirsch Stakes at Del Mar on Saturday to extend her winning streak to 18, improve her career earnings to $6,254,580, win her fourth Grade 1 of the year, and win the Hirsch for the third consecutive year.

She only won by a neck over Rinterval, a filly who was graded stakes-placed at Arlington Park last month, and even seemed to loaf in the final sixteenth, according to jockey Mike Smith. Even when he rode her in deep stretch, Smith never resorted to the whip.
------------------------------------------

He whipped her about 9 times.

Do you watch the races or just read Steve Andersen?

[cj]

I heard Moss say "at a 1-1/4 later in the year". They have their eyes on the prize.......And Pac Classic was emphatic NO.

Racing like this all year on synthetics with no pace and no competition will not have her ready for a grueling mile and a quarter on dirt. Remember, she'll have to run 15 to 20 lengths faster early just to stay in the same zip code, and who knows if she'll have the same kick. Seeing all her races this year have been quarter horse races, I tend to doubt it.

[horses4courses]

Are you Steve Andersen of the DRF? He said the same thing. He says he has the facts. Maybe I'm dillusional but I count 9 whips down to the wire.

http://www.drf.com/blogs/del-mar-zenyatta-legend-grows

Excerpt:

Here are the facts: Zenyatta won the Grade 1 Clement Hirsch Stakes at Del Mar on Saturday to extend her winning streak to 18, improve her career earnings to $6,254,580, win her fourth Grade 1 of the year, and win the Hirsch for the third consecutive year.

She only won by a neck over Rinterval, a filly who was graded stakes-placed at Arlington Park last month, and even seemed to loaf in the final sixteenth, according to jockey Mike Smith. Even when he rode her in deep stretch, Smith never resorted to the whip.
------------------------------------------

He whipped her about 9 times.

Do you watch the races or just read Steve Andersen?


Must be another detrimental effect of synthetics, eh Andy?
Causes optical illusions in certain situations........

[jelly]

Are you Steve Andersen of the DRF? He said the same thing. He says he has the facts. Maybe I'm dillusional but I count 9 whips down to the wire.

http://www.drf.com/blogs/del-mar-zenyatta-legend-grows

Excerpt:

Here are the facts: Zenyatta won the Grade 1 Clement Hirsch Stakes at Del Mar on Saturday to extend her winning streak to 18, improve her career earnings to $6,254,580, win her fourth Grade 1 of the year, and win the Hirsch for the third consecutive year.

She only won by a neck over Rinterval, a filly who was graded stakes-placed at Arlington Park last month, and even seemed to loaf in the final sixteenth, according to jockey Mike Smith. Even when he rode her in deep stretch, Smith never resorted to the whip.
------------------------------------------

He whipped her about 9 times.

Do you watch the races or just read Steve Andersen?



Yea, I counted 9 or 10 times,about the same amount of times that Johnny V. looked back in the Whitney.

[andymays]

Must be another detrimental effect of synthetics, eh Andy?
Causes optical illusions in certain situations........

I just had to go back and watch it again. He went to the whip unless Calracing is messing with me and put up a doctored video to make me look bad. You never know nowadays. :lol:

[andymays]

Yea, I counted 9 or 10 times,about the same amount of times that Johnny V. looked back in the Whitney.

I guess this is a great example of Z worship. They see things that didn't happen just to perpetuate the legend. :eek:

She is great but there's no need to embelish.

[jelly]

It looks as if Steve Andersen didn't watch the race.

[sonnyp]

I just had to go back and watch it again. He went to the whip unless Calracing is messing with me and put up a doctored video to make me look bad. You never know nowadays. :lol:

you got a link for the replay ?

i thought he got after her excitedly when that horse inside came to her. i think smith felt in jeopardy and would like to see it again.

[andymays]

you got a link for the replay ?

i thought he got after her excitedly when that horse inside came to her. i think smith felt in jeopardy and would like to see it again.


www.calracing.com has free replays. They also have the head on view.

[cj]

you got a link for the replay ?

i thought he got after her excitedly when that horse inside came to her. i think smith felt in jeopardy and would like to see it again.

I use Race Replays. I watched the head on and she definitely feels the whip at least a few times. I'm not interested enough to actually count.

[sonnyp]

looks to me as though he hits her a number of times right handed and almost looks startled as that mare inside doesn't get left behind.

18 - 0 always impressive... this race against these ? not real impressive.

[kenwoodall2]

looks to me as though he hits her a number of times right handed and almost looks startled as that mare inside doesn't get left behind.

18 - 0 always impressive... this race against these ? not real impressive.
She was hand slapped on the neck.
JMO next is the Zanyatta Stakes, and if she wins that HOY.

[sonnyp]

She was hand slapped on the neck.
JMO next is the Zanyatta Stakes, and if she wins that HOY.


interesting...hand slapped. i don't think i've ever seen that unless the jock dropped his whip.

does mccarron have the "hand slap" as part of his curriculum at the jock school ?

[PaceAdvantage]

I also predict QR will race once more then retire, same for Rachael, maybe twice more. Neither will be around in November.

Plan accordingly. :rolleyes:First of all, it's Rachel. Second, if they wanted to retire Rachel, they had ample opportunity after she lost her first two.

Rachel isn't going anywhere except the winner's circle. Rachel is a better horse than Zenyatta on dirt.

Plan accordingly.

[PaceAdvantage]

To be fair, if Z meets RA at Belmont, and RA wins, will ANYONE bring up the speed bias of dirt that aided her win? Or will we hear a different song from the choir?I'll only bring this up: "That's what happens when you actually have to run against a quality, fast horse."

[thaskalos]

I'll only bring this up: "That's what happens when you actually have to run against a quality, fast horse."Pity that you will not be given the opportunity...

[PaceAdvantage]

Pity that you will not be given the opportunity...Given the track record of some on here, I like my chances.

[thaskalos]

Zenyatta faces all sorts of unfavorable pace set-ups...always finding a way to win...and still gets roundly criticized.

Quality Road benefits from a leisurely pace, and loses...and hardly a peep...

[PaceAdvantage]

Zenyatta faces all sorts of unfavorable pace set-ups...always finding a way to win...and still gets roundly criticized.

Quality Road benefits from a leisurely pace, and loses...and hardly a peep...Zenyatta is called the best horse in the world...some say greatest female ever...some say even best horse ever....

Nobody says that about Quality Road.

Therein lies your difference. A higher standard is met with more intense scrutiny.

[thaskalos]

Don't forget...he was #3 in the World Thoroughbred Rankings...

[PaceAdvantage]

Don't forget...he was #3 in the World Thoroughbred Rankings...Do you honestly think his race, coupled with Zenyatta's, moves her ahead of him in the rankings?

You know the answer to that question before I even ask it.

[WinterTriangle]

Zenyatta faces all sorts of unfavorable pace set-ups...always finding a way to win...and still gets roundly criticized.

Quality Road benefits from a leisurely pace, and loses...and hardly a peep...

I'm a huge Zen fan, but there is always something that could undo a horse. QR at a mile, doubt she'd beat him.

As a matter of fact, the race she ran today could have been a bit longer for her IMHO.

QR hugely talented horse and fast, but at shorter I think. Said that back when people were fantacizing the BCC field. Although just as under the wrong circumstances Zen could lose, under just the right circumstances, QR would win.

Watching In the Paint practically fall down stumbling out of the gate today is the way racing goes sometimes. I mean, I didn't think he would win, but heck, I didn't expect LAST. :D

[thaskalos]

Do you honestly think his race, coupled with Zenyatta's, moves her ahead of him?

You know the answer to that question before I even ask it.I will answer you honestly, and I hope you will answer in kind...

I am really not sure who the best horse is at a mile and a quarter...but one thing is certain. Quality Road is not as good as we all thought he is. And I feel alot better about Zenyatta's chances for a BC Classic victory now...than I did yesterday.

Now, my question to you:

Hasn't your opinion of Quality Road diminished, as a result of what you saw today...and doesn't it surprise you that he hasn't gotten more criticism for his defeat, on this forum?

[PaceAdvantage]

Why are you completely avoiding what you and I just both wrote a couple of replies ago?

The Whitney hasn't really changed my opinion of QR at all. If Quality Road were allowed to race vastly inferior horses as much as Zenyatta does, the Zenyatta fanatics would be proclaiming HIM the best horse to ever step on a racetrack.

"So what" that Quality Road just got beat today...at least he lost to a legitimate racehorse.

I know in my handicapping heart of hearts Zenyatta wouldn't have won the Whitney today. And I know she has little chance to win the BC Classic. I think Rachel could beat Zenyatta right now (on dirt) as well (hell, I thought Rachel could beat Zenyatta on dirt even after she lost her first two races of the year).

[thaskalos]

Why are you completely avoiding what you and I just both wrote a couple of replies ago?

The Whitney hasn't really changed my opinion of QR at all. If Quality Road were allowed to race vastly inferior horses as much as Zenyatta does, the Zenyatta fanatics would be proclaiming HIM the best horse to ever step on a racetrack.

"So what" that Quality Road just got beat today...at least he lost to a legitimate racehorse.

I know in my handicapping heart of hearts Zenyatta wouldn't have won the Whitney today. And I know she has little chance to win the BC Classic. I think Rachel could beat Zenyatta right now (on dirt) as well (hell, I thought Rachel could beat Zenyatta on dirt even after she lost her first two races of the year).Jesus...how many times are you going to refer to those idiotic comments about Zenyatta being the best horse in the world...or the best of all time...or the best to ever step on a racetrack?

NOBODY ever made those comments...they only exist in your imagination. There was one guy that I remember, who stated that "unlike Zenyatta...even Secretariat lost"...but this was obviously a novice, who has never posted here since.

I defy you to give me the name of EVEN ONE semi-regular poster...who has EVER claimed that Zenyatta belongs with Secretariat, Seattle Slew, Spectacular Bid, etc.

And yet...every time you want to prove a point...there you go with these wild exaggerations, which are clearly meant to deprive Zenyatta fans of any sense of reason.

[DeanT]

Funny to hear Shirreff's say this today. It's unlike him.

http://www.latimes.com/sports/la-sp-0808-dwyre-zenyatta-20100808,0,6960594.column

Even Shirreffs, who manages his words as carefully as he manages the career of his superstar, bristled a bit when reminded that the Eastern press had taken its shots at his mare this week, including one newspaper story that said: "The best horse in the country will run today, and so will Zenyatta." That was a reference to Quality Road, who ended up losing in the Whitney Stakes at Saratoga.

"Certainly, she's the best horse in the country," Shirreffs said.

[PaceAdvantage]

NOBODY ever made those comments...they only exist in your imagination. There was one guy that I remember, who stated that "unlike Zenyatta...even Secretariat lost"...but this was obviously a novice, who has never posted here since.

I defy you to give me the name of EVEN ONE semi-regular poster...who has EVER claimed that Zenyatta belongs with Secretariat, Seattle Slew, Spectacular Bid, etc.Here's a few right off the bat, albeit they do include the fact that she has to win this year's BCC first:

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showpost.php?p=944293&postcount=153

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showpost.php?p=858902&postcount=3

and here is Cratos saying she out and out belongs RIGHT NOW with the big boys you mention...no need to win another BCC:

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showpost.php?p=854482&postcount=40

Oh, and I do believe Steve Davidowitz pretty much said as much as well...

Is this another "Case Closed" moment for moi?

I mean, do you seriously think I just make shit up? There is a search function on this board. I just grabbed the first couple that came up...I'm sure I can find more for you...

[Stillriledup]

PA is right, 10 years from now, if you asked the 100 smartest people who seriously follow horse racing to name the top 20 horses of all time, Z would be in many people's lists and QR wouldnt be in anyone's list.

BC is less than 3 months away, its going to be interesting to see who shows up and who does not.

[delayjf]

Last year I think RA would have beat the hell out of her.

I think RA has the advantage at 1 mile to 1 1/16. At 1 1/8 it would depend on the pace and the track condition, RA would have the advantage on an off track. Z would rule at 1 1/4.

[JustRalph]

There is a video thread around here somewhere that has video of some 'the greats' from the past

These people who think zenyatta is one of the greats, need to watch some video

[andymays]

Funny to hear Shirreff's say this today. It's unlike him.

http://www.latimes.com/sports/la-sp-0808-dwyre-zenyatta-20100808,0,6960594.column

I like John Shirreffs but if they want to manage her as carefully as they have then she's always going to have detractors. They have campaigned for runnner up HOY for the last two years. I can guarantee you that most of the people who vote are not impressed so far this year. The next race had better be in New York or the doubts will continue.

[FenceBored]

To be fair, if Z meets RA at Belmont, and RA wins, will ANYONE bring up the speed bias of dirt that aided her win? Or will we hear a different song from the choir?

Yes, I'm sure you will.

[PhantomOnTour]

What horse do you folks think can beat Zen going 10f on dirt or poly?

[bks]

What David Flores did on Dance to my Tune entering the stretch of course goes unmentioned. He purposely floats Zenyatta out into the five-six path, when he began in the two-path. Of course it didn't matter, though it would have beat any other mare rallying into that dawdling pace.

On video, it looks like Zenyatta only beat a resurgent Rinterval by a neck. In reality, she beat the track (inside best yesterday), the pace and the tactics of Flores - in other words, pretty much what she's up against every race, and wins anyway.

Meanwhile, the new superhorse on this site (who recently supplanted the brilliant Zardana for that title) got an incredibly favorable pace set-up on a track that favors his style and at a trip he loves, and got passed pretty easily by a very nice horse, but one he was expected to hammer given the race circumstances.

Them's the facts.

And if Zenyatta goes to the Beldame and then Churchill, that will mean six races at six different tracks in four states this year, three on synthetic and three on dirt, all races Grade I [no matter what the actual competition looks like - Shirreffs doesn't control that] and the last against the top dirt males on the planet at a classic distance. That's a lock HOY campaign if she goes 6-6 in a year where 3-y-o Classic winners will not have historic accomplishments [LAL's injury makes this a certainty now].

Since I want a chance to look as stupid as the Z-diminishers here, too, here are some predictions:

1. QR will never win a G1 race at 1 1/4 miles, ever. He will be off the board if he runs in the BC Classic at 1 1/4 miles.

2. Zenyatta, if she runs in the BC Classic, will be first or second, and will unquestionably finish ahead of Quality Road if he goes in the BCC.

3. QR will not go in the BCC. He will win the Dirt Mile or Sprint if he enters. A nice achievement for a horse of his ability.

4. Rachel Alexandra will lose to Life at Ten in the Personal Ensign if both go.

5. Rachel will not go in the BC Classic. If she does, she will be off the board.

6. Rachel will go in the BC Distaff. She will lose. She will not race after that, and will retire having had a brilliant and historic career.

7. In four years, the progeny of the pairings of Curlin-RA and Zenyatta-Sea the Stars will produce eerily similar non-debates on this site with even greater thread proliferation, much to the pleasure of PA (except for the thread proliferation part).


:)

[MNslappy]

] [/color]NOBODY ever made those comments...they only exist in your imagination.I defy you to give me the name of EVEN ONE semi-regular poster...who has EVER claimed that Zenyatta belongs with Secretariat, Seattle Slew, Spectacular Bid, etc.

http://janeheller.mlblogs.com/mcenroe_not_serious.jpg

you cannot be serious

[Hanover1]

What David Flores did on Dance to my Tune entering the stretch of course goes unmentioned. He purposely floats Zenyatta out into the five-six path, when he began in the two-path. Of course it didn't matter, though it would have beat any other mare rallying into that dawdling pace.

On video, it looks like Zenyatta only beat a resurgent Rinterval by a neck. In reality, she beat the track (inside best yesterday), the pace and the tactics of Flores - in other words, pretty much what she's up against every race, and wins anyway.

Meanwhile, the new superhorse on this site (who recently supplanted the brilliant Zardana for that title) got an incredibly favorable pace set-up on a track that favors his style and at a trip he loves, and got passed pretty easily by a very nice horse, but one he was expected to hammer given the race circumstances.

Them's the facts.

And if Zenyatta goes to the Beldame and then Churchill, that will mean six races at six different tracks in four states this year, three on synthetic and three on dirt, all races Grade I [no matter what the actual competition looks like - Shirreffs doesn't control that] and the last against the top dirt males on the planet at a classic distance. That's a lock HOY campaign if she goes 6-6 in a year where 3-y-o Classic winners will not have historic accomplishments [LAL's injury makes this a certainty now].

Since I want a chance to look as stupid as the Z-diminishers here, too, here are some predictions:

1. QR will never win a G1 race at 1 1/4 miles, ever. He will be off the board if he runs in the BC Classic at 1 1/4 miles.

2. Zenyatta, if she runs in the BC Classic, will be first or second, and will unquestionably finish ahead of Quality Road if he goes in the BCC.

3. QR will not go in the BCC. He will win the Dirt Mile or Sprint if he enters. A nice achievement for a horse of his ability.

4. Rachel Alexandra will lose to Life at Ten in the Personal Ensign if both go.

5. Rachel will not go in the BC Classic. If she does, she will be off the board.

6. Rachel will go in the BC Distaff. She will lose. She will not race after that, and will retire having had a brilliant and historic career.

7. In four years, the progeny of the pairings of Curlin-RA and Zenyatta-Sea the Stars will produce eerily similar non-debates on this site with even greater thread proliferation, much to the pleasure of PA (except for the thread proliferation part).


:)

Was not aware LAL is on the shelf now-I miss something?
Regarding the foals 4 years from now, highly anticipated sale toppers that fizzle is the norm. Bloodstock only-racehorses doubtful.
Good luck with those pontifications. Do not be shocked to see different scenarios however.

[Tom]

I like John Shirreffs but if they want to manage her as carefully as they have then she's always going to have detractors. They have campaigned for runnner up HOY for the last two years. I can guarantee you that most of the people who vote are not impressed so far this year. The next race had better be in New York or the doubts will continue.

In 10 years, who will be remembered?
Z or RA?

Hell, she is still running and I can't even remember how to spell her name! :D

[Hanover1]

What horse do you folks think can beat Zen going 10f on dirt or poly?

QR at the top of his game would make her work, but she runs him down if Smith can stay awake. You lay15 lenghts off a blistering mile (around .33) and its almost to much to overcome.
Her conformation is perfect for routes-does it so easy and covers a ton of ground per stride-it would take the above unlikely scenario to unfold imo.

[Hanover1]

In 10 years, who will be remembered?
Z or RA?

Hell, she is still running and I can't even remember how to spell her name! :D

Perhaps in light of just how things have unfolded, most cannot mention one without forgetting the other.

[Hanover1]

I don't think she was all out.
She ran 53 feet further from the 3/4 home than the place horse.
If they ran around the tracks, no one catches her.

She did this one for fun. She makes Smith look good despite the move.
I watched the HD replay at home, and she appears tapped 3 times to get her attention, on the shoulder, and the rest was just shaking the stick at her to keep her on her toes. Easy for a good horse to get bored/lazy when its easy for them.
She EVER gets beat and my excuse will be Smith, not the mare.......

[cj]

Zenyatta faces all sorts of unfavorable pace set-ups...always finding a way to win...and still gets roundly criticized.

Quality Road benefits from a leisurely pace, and loses...and hardly a peep...

Well, except on rubber they aren't unfavorable.

On dirt, she had honest to fast paces both times, and the second time was against a high school JV team.

[cj]

Don't forget...he was #3 in the World Thoroughbred Rankings...

Those things are a joke. They have no idea how to rate our horses.

[chickenhead]

Zenyatta is an unknown quantity in a fast paced competitive dirt route, and she's either going to be a lot further back than normal or running must faster early than normal. The former puts a lot of pressure on Smith and some luck, the latter puts a lot of pressure on Zenyatta, she's gonna be a more tired than usual Zenyatta trying to gut it out.

Complain as everyone (including me) might about distilling everything down into one event, it'll be an absolutely electric event, and I hope it happens.

[cj]

PA is right, 10 years from now, if you asked the 100 smartest people who seriously follow horse racing to name the top 20 horses of all time, Z would be in many people's lists and QR wouldnt be in anyone's list.

BC is less than 3 months away, its going to be interesting to see who shows up and who does not.

The sad thing is that if she loses, her legacy will be gone because she hasn't had many challenges, and none on dirt. Imagine in 10 years when all the synthetics are gone, or at least most of them, and all she has to show is a bunch of wins on rubber.

[cj]

What horse do you folks think can beat Zen going 10f on dirt or poly?

On poly, probably none. ON dirt, the list is long.

[bks]

Should have said LAL's sickness, rather than injury. Apologies.

[Hanover1]

Should have said LAL's sickness, rather than injury. Apologies.

NP-was just taken a bit aback...so you feel that even if he rattles off the rest of the way, he cannot garner considerations for HOY? This assumes Z loses/non enters the BCC.....

[bks]

Right, with a Z loss/non-entry in the BCC, sure, he can win it. I'm saying that if Z wins her next two races, including the BCC, I don't see anything LAL can do to garner the honor.

Of course, a victory in the Woodward, the JCGC and a second in the BCC would give him a big chance. I love the horse, btw. Another example of a horse who has moderate figures on the synthetic capable of big runs on the dirt.

[Hanover1]

Right, with a Z loss/non-entry in the BCC, sure, he can win it. I'm saying that if Z wins her next two races, including the BCC, I don't see anything LAL can do to garner the honor.

Of course, a victory in the Woodward, the JCGC and a second in the BCC would give him a big chance. I love the horse, btw. Another example of a horse who has moderate figures on the synthetic capable of big runs on the dirt.

My version of someone who gets it.........

[DeanT]

They look to be the only two in the running so far. It will be interesting - but LAL would have to do something special if Z wins the Beldame and makes a good account of herself in the Classic. HOY is not only reserved for one year, voters look at the horse and his or her place in history, whether people like that or not. Someone would have to do something eye-popping to get Z off the top if she delivers anything resembling impressive in her last two starts.

IMO.

[cj]

They look to be the only two in the running so far. It will be interesting - but LAL would have to do something special if Z wins the Beldame and makes a good account of herself in the Classic. HOY is not only reserved for one year, voters look at the horse and his or her place in history, whether people like that or not. Someone would have to do something eye-popping to get Z off the top if she delivers anything resembling impressive in her last two starts.

IMO.

I don't buy that. If QR where to win the JCGC and the Classic he is HOY. If Rachel win the PE and the Beldame and the Classic, she is HOY. Certainly Blame is a contender.

I don't even think Z is at the top right now, Blame probably is. What has Z done THIS year that would put her at the top?

[joanied]

Should have said LAL's sickness, rather than injury. Apologies.

Glad you corrected your statement...scared the hell outta me:faint:

[DeanT]

I don't buy that. If QR where to win the JCGC and the Classic he is HOY. If Rachel win the PE and the Beldame and the Classic, she is HOY. Certainly Blame is a contender.

I don't even think Z is at the top right now, Blame probably is. What has Z done THIS year that would put her at the top?

If you were betting with a bookmaker on Blame for HOY right now, he would not be chalk.

There are a lot of races left so it is all conjecture. I stand by my opinion that someone will have to do something special (like sweeping the JCGC and BC Classic, which, imo, is impressive) and Z will have to lose, or race poorly.

For Zenyatta to go 19 for 20 in her career, with say a fast closing 3rd in the BC Classic against males, with a record number of grade ones, the only mare to win the Classic, and the highest money earning mare in thoroughbred history, it would be a shocking for her not to have a HOY on her resume; in fact, I think it would be bad for racing. Some people would treat their horse of the year vote as a coronation. I give that a ton of pull. Someone will have to do something really special. This sport has seen a lot of Blame's, QR's and LAL's, but very few Zenyatta's.

[Relwob Owner]

If you were betting with a bookmaker on Blame for HOY right now, he would not be chalk.

There are a lot of races left so it is all conjecture. I stand by my opinion that someone will have to do something special (like sweeping the JCGC and BC Classic, which, imo, is impressive) and Z will have to lose, or race poorly.

For Zenyatta to go 19 for 20 in her career, with say a fast closing 3rd in the BC Classic against males, with a record number of grade ones, the only mare to win the Classic, and the highest money earning mare in thoroughbred history, it would be a shocking for her not to have a HOY on her resume; in fact, I think it would be bad for racing. Some people would treat their horse of the year vote as a coronation. I give that a ton of pull. Someone will have to do something really special. This sport has seen a lot of Blame's, QR's and LAL's, but very few Zenyatta's.


I think much of the debate centers around what the Horse of the Year rewards and stands for.....I disagree with you about her finishing third and it being "bad for racing" not to have an HOY....I think it would be good for racing in the sense that a Horse of the Year is a horse who competes at a high level for the WHOLE year and doesnt just spend the year ducking others and preparing for one race.....

[cj]

If you were betting with a bookmaker on Blame for HOY right now, he would not be chalk.

There are a lot of races left so it is all conjecture. I stand by my opinion that someone will have to do something special (like sweeping the JCGC and BC Classic, which, imo, is impressive) and Z will have to lose, or race poorly.

For Zenyatta to go 19 for 20 in her career, with say a fast closing 3rd in the BC Classic against males, with a record number of grade ones, the only mare to win the Classic, and the highest money earning mare in thoroughbred history, it would be a shocking for her not to have a HOY on her resume; in fact, I think it would be bad for racing. Some people would treat their horse of the year vote as a coronation. I give that a ton of pull. Someone will have to do something really special. This sport has seen a lot of Blame's, QR's and LAL's, but very few Zenyatta's.

Blame wouldn't be the favorite because people don't think he can win from here on out. But, based on what they have done so far, him or Quality Road should be the favorites. Horses racing in restricted classes by age or sex only win when they do something very special and/or the older males and 3yos don't do much. Zenyatta has done nothing special this year.

So, if I get this right, you are saying she should win with another win and a good third in the Classic because of what she did in 2008 and 2009? There is no way that is going to happen. Weak campaigns are not rewarded because of accomplishments from years past. Without a Classic win, she has no shot at being horse of the year unless some rank outsider were to beat her in a close race with the other contenders flopping.

Like it or not, the Z camp is going all in on the Classic with about an AJ off suited.

[The Judge]

I think many feel that if Zenyatta lost at a 1 1/4 it would be because of a mistimed ride, back too far early, or bad racing luck. Even with this, she will be coming on at the end and simply run out of ground . I don't think so, I think she will fade and not reach the front horses. She will be forced to work too hard early and she won't have it (because of pace or being blocked early etc.). In the BC she was inside and and got into tons of trouble then had to go outside. She then ran the race of a lifetime. Against lesser she can afford to stay wide.

While I love this horse I don't think she is as good as she was last year.

I don't think she can run another race like the BC last year. I don't think she is the same horse. Assuming a large field she will have to go inside to have a chance. Every horse will be ready to run on BC day.

What this means (if I am correct) is that any very good horse that can beat her at 9f can beat her at 1 1/4. She just won't have it at the end and won't get into contention. If I am right the best bet "might be " place and show on BC day.

So far she has been a monster. As far as her not running against the best, hey, every owner/trainer knows her address if they want to drop by.

[DeanT]

I think much of the debate centers around what the Horse of the Year rewards and stands for.....I disagree with you about her finishing third and it being "bad for racing" not to have an HOY....I think it would be good for racing in the sense that a Horse of the Year is a horse who competes at a high level for the WHOLE year and doesnt just spend the year ducking others and preparing for one race.....
You're using a barometer for her that is not used for others.

For QR or Blame to do what you want her to do, they would have to race horses with two penis's.

She is a mare, so she races grade 1's against mares. She has a good chance to retire as the all time grade 1 winning mare. That is her barometer for HOY, not that she beats males on their home track.

You want her on dirt against mares, well you got it this year. They didnt cut a check any less, or only give a half a trophy because the field was soft. If you get it in the Beldame and she wins you will have two dirt grade ones.

Stop holding her to a different standard. She is a female horse who wins all her female races. That is what horse of the year is based on in almost all instances.

[cj]

Stop holding her to a different standard. She is a female horse who wins all her female races. That is what horse of the year is based on in almost all instances.

This is where history disagrees with you. There have been tons of mares with fabulous records that could never win horse of they year. Open races and the Triple Crown come first, and anyone outside of those categories wins by default.

Rachel won last year because she won the Oaks, the Preakness, and beat males including older three times. Even that said, had some handicap horse won several big G1 races and won the BC, I guarantee that horse would have won the award.

[DeanT]

Blame wouldn't be the favorite because people don't think he can win from here on out. But, based on what they have done so far, him or Quality Road should be the favorites. Horses racing in restricted classes by age or sex only win when they do something very special and/or the older males and 3yos don't do much. Zenyatta has done nothing special this year.

So, if I get this right, you are saying she should win with another win and a good third in the Classic because of what she did in 2008 and 2009? There is no way that is going to happen. Weak campaigns are not rewarded because of accomplishments from years past. Without a Classic win, she has no shot at being horse of the year unless some rank outsider were to beat her in a close race with the other contenders flopping.

Like it or not, the Z camp is going all in on the Classic with about an AJ off suited.

The bookies will take money on that. If you are right you will make some good cash.

[DeanT]

This is where history disagrees with you. There have been tons of mares with fabulous records that could never win horse of they year. Open races and the Triple Crown come first, and anyone outside of those categories wins by default.

Rachel won last year because she won the Oaks, the Preakness, and beat males including older three times. Even that said, had some handicap horse won several big G1 races and won the BC, I guarantee that horse would have won the award.

Favorite Trick?

[joanied]

Right, with a Z loss/non-entry in the BCC, sure, he can win it. I'm saying that if Z wins her next two races, including the BCC, I don't see anything LAL can do to garner the honor.

Of course, a victory in the Woodward, the JCGC and a second in the BCC would give him a big chance. I love the horse, btw. Another example of a horse who has moderate figures on the synthetic capable of big runs on the dirt.

Zen's biggest win margins came on dirt...and the bolded sentence is spot on...I absolutley hate synthetic, but I am tired of folks saying she's less than what she is because of the surface...especially since they all know she can sure as hell run on dirt...jeeze:faint: ...

I still haven't seen a head-on of the Clement, I can't find one that's on a free site...I have a free membership at Race Replays, which entitles me to squat...if anyone knows where I can see a head-on (free), I'd sure appreciate it...meantime, after watching the pan shot replay, and also watching again on my TV (I record all the big races), I think Mike tapped her twice, then the rest was just waving the stick....regardless, she ran the last 8th in a little less than 6 seconds...after a momentary 'loaf', she was accelerating again and was actually drawing away from Rinterval...if they had to go another 8th, Zen would have won by a couple of lengths...it's pretty obvious to me that she was accelerating just before they hit the wire.

to win on a surface she hates, running at those snail pace fractions, moving before she was comfortable to do so, racing way off the rail thanks to her being forced out (by some pretty good race riding)...don't know what more you can want...she once again finds a way to win.

Those that bash her BC Classic last year...don't forget she overcame quite a bit in that race too...having to weave through traffic, getting checked and having to sidestep to not run up on another horse...she just always finds a way...sometimes it ain't pretty, but she gets the job done...IMO, if they'd campaigned her on dirt, we'd have the same result...18 in a row.

She'll make the Classic...not sure if Rachel will, but one would have to assume she'll be there...and I don't think either mare should fear QR...if he was mine, I'd run him in the BC Dirt Mile anyway...but they will go for the BCC...IMO, Lookin at Lucky is as better horse than QR...and as long as he's 100% come BC time...he's gonna be awful tough. But, guess that gets us ahead of the game, it's still a little too early to start considering the Classic...although, it is fun to speculate!

I hope Zen goes to the Beldame...I'd love to see her in the PE with Rachel & Life at ten and a few other really good ones...but I can't see Zen & RA meeting until BC day...

Zenyatta, IMO, is a gift...one every race fan should cherish...I cannot understand how anyone can bitch about a 'good thing', regardless of the package it comes in, it's still a gift....and this one keeps on giving:ThmbUp:

[Relwob Owner]

You're using a barometer for her that is not used for others.

For QR or Blame to do what you want her to do, they would have to race horses with two penis's.

She is a mare, so she races grade 1's against mares. She has a good chance to retire as the all time grade 1 winning mare. That is her barometer for HOY, not that she beats males on their home track.

You want her on dirt against mares, well you got it this year. They didnt cut a check any less, or only give a half a trophy because the field was soft. If you get it in the Beldame and she wins you will have two dirt grade ones.

Stop holding her to a different standard. She is a female horse who wins all her female races. That is what horse of the year is based on in almost all instances.


I dont think I am the one holding her to a different standard....is it called "Filly and Mare of the Year?"....no, there is a separate award for that...

How has HORSE of the year been based on "a female horse who wins all her female races" as you suggest it is "based on in almost all instances"....


The barometer for Horse of the Year is just that....HORSE of the Year....not the filly who won the most races against fillies.....it is rewarded to the horse who has been the best against the best all year and through August she hasnt sniffed real competition....

Keep in mind you are supporting a horse who reportedly ran a 94 Beyer yesterday against a short, weak field....

[cj]

Favorite Trick?

He won eight races as a two year old, including the BC, while undefeated. The BC Classic winner, while I believe undefeated, had very little significant accomplishment before that race other than a dead heat with Silver Charm in a G3. Awesome Again would have been HOY if his connections had raced him against better horses more often. Still, he didn't get it and he WON the Classic. He didn't even get the Handicap Horse Eclipse.

That Eclipse went to Skip Away, a horse beaten handily in his last two starts. They certainly didn't give it to him anyway by factoring in his 1996 accomplishments. That is the point, it is Horse of the Year, not Horse of the Last Few Years and not Horse of the Breeder's Cup Classic.

[DeanT]

What about Azeri? She never raced boys when she won.

All I am saying is it is going to take someone doing something very good to get her away from the award if she races well. Cant we agree on that?

[DeanT]

Keep in mind you are supporting a horse who reportedly ran a 94 Beyer yesterday against a short, weak field....
If QR races his first quarter in 26.3 he too would run a poor Beyer.

[chickenhead]

I've never put great stock in anything people vote on. Also their categories don't make any sense (never have, but even less so now). They have a turf category, but no dirt category, and no synthetic category. Huh? Oh, one is kind of the default dirt category, unless theres a really good synthetic or turf horse, then they can win that too.

I know it's always lame for someone to pop into a thread and say "who cares", so I won't.

[Relwob Owner]

If QR races his first quarter in 26.3 he too would run a poor Beyer.


I am not a big fan of Quality Road....doesnt race much and I have thought he was overrated from the get go....you can look up my posts after the DONN when everyone proclaimed he was a superhorse...

a 94 against that field, whatever the pace was, was disappointing....

[cj]

Another example of a horse who has moderate figures on the synthetic capable of big runs on the dirt.

If you guys believe this, I hope you bet, and a lot. Sure, plenty of horses move from rubber and run big. But not very many with her style. I can't think of one, a big closer moving from rubber to dirt that suddenly runs big.

I'll just give a few clues...one, she doesn't hate the Delmar surface. It is completely ridiculous and another line (of countless lines) made up by the Z camp. Two, pace is irrelevant in synthetic routes. It doesn't really matter how slow they go, closers still have a chance if they are any good. This is especially true when your competition is a many time allowance losing sprinter from Arlington and another that hasn't won a race since before Zenyatta's career debut.

All this gift to racing stuff is silly. Running against these ridiculous fields, they may as well put her out for little kids to take pony rides. That would probably be more fun to watch.

[cj]

I am not a big fan of Quality Road....doesnt race much and I have thought he was overrated from the get go....you can look up my posts after the DONN when everyone proclaimed he was a superhorse...


Not everyone. I've never been on the Quality Road bandwagon.

[cj]

What about Azeri? She never raced boys when she won.

All I am saying is it is going to take someone doing something very good to get her away from the award if she races well. Cant we agree on that?

I can't agree. I think she has to win the Classic or lose to a nobody. The older horse award was won by Left Bank that year, a horse that won three races that year and didn't race after August 3rd. Like I said, it takes special circumstances.

Any of the following will win with a win in the Classic...

Blame, Quality Road, Rachel Alexandra, Lookin at Lucky, and even Blind Luck if somehow she was entered. If she loses to any of them in the Classic, she can't be HOY. Like I said, with her campaign, they are all in for the Classic. Hell, even Rail Trip can be added to that list, and I'm probably forgetting a couple others.

[cj]

If QR races his first quarter in 26.3 he too would run a poor Beyer.

He never would.

[cpitt84]

Not everyone. I've never been on the Quality Road bandwagon.

me either. I have always said that zenyatta would beat him in the BBC and I hope they both go so it will happen.

[thaskalos]

Like it or not, the Z camp is going all in on the Classic with about an AJ off suited. I disagree!

The Zenyatta camp is holding "pocket" Queens, on this one...

[DeanT]

He never would.

Of course not, he is a speed horse, which why reciting the final time of the race yesterday as some sort of gauge is ridiculous.

Back on point - what about this older division anyway. Does it not stink, or did Musket Man suddenly become a solid contender in every race he is in?

Dont people take that into account when looking at Blame? I mean really, Cigar, Skip Away, all the older greats, and ..... Blame? Something does not fit to me in this division.

[cj]

Of course not, he is a speed horse, which why reciting the final time of the race yesterday as some sort of gauge is ridiculous.

Back on point - what about this older division anyway. Does it not stink, or did Musket Man suddenly become a solid contender in every race he is in?

Dont people take that into account when looking at Blame? I mean really, Cigar, Skip Away, all the older greats, and ..... Blame? Something does not fit to me in this division.

I think Musket Man is pretty good, but certainly this crop is nothing exceptional in my opinion. I have noted I think those comparisons are very difficult in any case. It is solid and better than recent years though. For HOY where horses rank historically doesn't matter, just how they stack up against the others this year.

Do you agree any of those I listed will be HOY with a win? I don't see how they won't.

[DeanT]

Blind Luck and Rachel I believe are longshots in the BC Classic. As for Blame, QR and LAL, I agree with LAL because he would have then had a Curlin-type year and that would be tough to knock.

If Z gets pace compromised in the Classic and still thunders down the lane to a bang up second to QR or Blame, I can see her winning HOY. Some of the voters would have to know how to handicap and know she was the better horse that day, and answered every lick of criticism ever leveled at her throughout her career.

That's my story and I am sticking to it :)

[cj]

Blind Luck and Rachel I believe are longshots in the BC Classic. As for Blame, QR and LAL, I agree with LAL because he would have then had a Curlin-type year and that would be tough to knock.

If Z gets pace compromised in the Classic and still thunders down the lane to a bang up second to QR or Blame, I can see her winning HOY. Some of the voters would have to know how to handicap and know she was the better horse that day, and answered every lick of criticism ever leveled at her throughout her career.

That's my story and I am sticking to it :)

Of course they are longshots, but if they win HOY is won. I'm not sure I'd take Quality Road over Rachel as a bettor though.

As for the criticism, I think most agree she is a very good horse. The criticism is of the connections and hiding behind a synthetic surface and the FM tag this year. I'm very disappointed we didn't get to see her tested this year. Her season could have been special instead of the joke it has become.

[Saratoga_Mike]

Blind Luck and Rachel I believe are longshots in the BC Classic. As for Blame, QR and LAL, I agree with LAL because he would have then had a Curlin-type year and that would be tough to knock.

If Z gets pace compromised in the Classic and still thunders down the lane to a bang up second to QR or Blame, I can see her winning HOY. Some of the voters would have to know how to handicap and know she was the better horse that day, and answered every lick of criticism ever leveled at her throughout her career.

That's my story and I am sticking to it :)

So you believe the HOY voters should take into account her lifetime accomplishments and not just this yr's races?

[DeanT]

So you believe the HOY voters should take into account her lifetime accomplishments and not just this yr's races?

I believe it is a mix of where the horse stands in historical terms (eg Rachel winning last year and being rewarded for perhaps the best 3YO F season we will ever see), if they are the best horse, and the year they had.

In historical terms she would stand out as one of the best, if not the best mare ever. For her year she would have four grade ones on two surfaces and a pace compromised BC second place. As for who is the better horse, if she was second in the BC to a horse like Blame, and everyone with a lick of common sense knows she wins easily if the half goes at par time, then she wholly deserves being labeled the best horse of 2010. Blame getting it ahead of her when we know she is a better horse would be simply the wrong thing to do.

IMO.

[cj]

I believe it is a mix of where the horse stands in historical terms (eg Rachel winning last year and being rewarded for perhaps the best 3YO season we will ever see), if they are the best horse, and the year they had.

In historical terms she would stand out as one of the best, if not the best mare ever. For her year she would have four grade ones on two surfaces and a pace compromised BC second place. As for who is the better horse, if she was second in the BC to a horse like Blame, and everyone with a lick of common sense knows she wins easily if the half goes at par time, then she wholly deserves being labeled the best horse of 2010.

IMO.

I don't get this...Blame isn't exactly a front runner. If the pace is slow he will be as disadvantaged as she is. Since when is a defect (no early speed) rewarded?

[DeanT]

I don't get this...Blame isn't exactly a front runner. If the pace is slow he will be as disadvantaged as she is.

Submit QR instead, it is just an example. Let's say she gets bodychecked and comes second to Blame, where everyone knows she would have won if the race was fair.

[BluegrassProf]

If Z gets pace compromised in the Classic and still thunders down the lane to a bang up second to QR or Blame, I can see her winning HOY. Some of the voters would have to know how to handicap and know she was the better horse that day, and answered every lick of criticism ever leveled at her throughout her career.
You mean, every criticism except that one kinda big one about fairly cupcakey seasons leading up to big year-end races? Gawrsh, that one sure seems to me like a tougher one to shake...perhaps I'm mistaken.

Ah well. At least I still have my health.

[bisket]

On poly, probably none. ON dirt, the list is long.
name 3 or 2 or how about just one that would beat her on dirt? let us know before a race..... not just how wonderfully you can analyze a race afterwards. you know actual handicapping comes beforehand... not afterwards :lol:

[BluegrassProf]

I believe it is a mix of where the horse stands in historical terms (eg Rachel winning last year and being rewarded for perhaps the best 3YO F season we will ever see), if they are the best horse, and the year they had.And the reason that context works is that it's a season; Rachel's 3yo season was a single season, or single year. Is that making sense? It's a season season season, or in layfolk's terms, a "year." It's Horse of the Year - or Horse of the Season, if you prefer - I'm really not sure how it can be simplified...

[DeanT]

You mean, every criticism except that one kinda big one about fairly cupcakey seasons leading up to big year-end races? Gawrsh, that one sure seems to me like a tougher one to shake...perhaps I'm mistaken.

Ah well. At least I still have my health.

It's Horse of the Year, not owner and trainer decision making award of the year.

People who handicap are able to judge the quality and talent of a horse, and one would hope they are some of the people voting.

[cj]

name 3 or 2 or how about just one that would beat her on dirt? let us know before a race..... not just how wonderfully you can analyze a race afterwards. you know actual handicapping comes beforehand... not afterwards :lol:

Easy...

Blame, Rachel Alexandra, Blind Luck, Rail Trip, Quality Road, Musket Man, Lookin At Lucky, Battle Plan.

[horses4courses]

And the reason that context works is that it's a season; Rachel's 3yo season was a single season, or single year. Is that making sense? It's a season season season, or in layfolk's terms, a "year." It's Horse of the Year - or Horse of the Season, if you prefer - I'm really not sure how it can be simplified...

Wow......
Could we please be a little more condescending?

[BluegrassProf]

Wow......
Could we please be a little more condescending?:D Doubtful.

Srriously: heartfelt apologies for my shameful ball-busting - it's flat-out exhaustion talking, I promise... :blush:

[Rackon]

Easy...

Blame, Rachel Alexandra, Blind Luck, Rail Trip, Quality Road, Musket Man, Lookin At Lucky, Battle Plan.

:lol:

Actually, it wouldn't be that easy.

Any horse can be beat under the right circumstances. Including Zenyatta.

However...

Assuming everyone is sound, ready and experiences no horrible racing luck, I don't see Musket Man, Blind Luck, QR, Rail Trip, RA or Battle Plan beating Z on dirt at a mile and a quarter. LAL and Blame need their A games to do it, and I've always had concerns about QR, a lovely horse I like a lot, at mile and a quarter.

So...IMO, not so easy.

[cj]

:lol:

Probably not so easy.

Any horse can be beat under the right circumstances.

Assuming everyone is sound and no horrible racing luck, I don't see Musket Man, Blind Luck, QR, Rail Trip, RA or Battle Plan beating Z on dirt at a mile and a quarter. LAL and Blame need their A games to do it, and I've always had doubts about QR, though a lovely horse, at mile and a quarter. I'd love to know why he didn't fire yesterday.

It is all opinion. I have seen nothing in Z's two dirt races that lead me to believe it is her preferred surface. I'm about 99% sure it is not.

[Rackon]

It is all opinion. I have seen nothing in Z's two dirt races that lead me to believe it is her preferred surface. I'm about 99% sure it is not.

We shall agree to disagree.;)

[FenceBored]

Battle Plan has been retired off an injury he sustained in the Stephen Foster.

[cj]

Battle Plan has been retired off an injury he sustained in the Stephen Foster.

And he could probably still take her on dirt.

[speed]

It is all opinion. I have seen nothing in Z's two dirt races that lead me to believe it is her preferred surface. I'm about 99% sure it is not.

Dont think she was asked to do much running in either dirt race. So perhaps it is.
Hope they all get to the Breeders healthy and it may be 1 of the better classics in years.

[horses4courses]

And he could probably still take her on dirt.

cj,

If you were making book on the BC Classic, what odds would you quote on Zenyatta?
High odds, I would assume, as you might give Mr.Ed a good shot at beating her on dirt..........

[Cardus]

It was another embarrassing race call of a Zenyatta race.

Trevor was compelled to rationalize why Zenyatta barely got up to win with his "it's the way that she does it" line. What a load of garbage.

How any Zenyatta fan feels comfortable touting her today is beyond me.

[thaskalos]

And he could probably still take her on dirt. Have you ever considered comedy as a career?

[cj]

cj,

If you were making book on the BC Classic, what odds would you quote on Zenyatta?
High odds, I would assume, as you might give Mr.Ed a good shot at beating her on dirt..........

Right now, I'd make her about 5 to 1.

[cj]

Have you ever considered comedy as a career?

It was meant as a joke.

[horses4courses]

Right now, I'd make her about 5 to 1.

Fair enough.
Just a point higher than what's currently available in London.

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/ante-post-racing/flat/breeders-cup-classic

[thaskalos]

It was meant as a joke. That's why I said what I said...I thought it was funny!

[tucker6]

Right now, I'd make her about 5 to 1.
to come out of the starting gate or to win? I'd say her chances of getting into the starting gate are worse than her winning.

[cj]

to come out of the starting gate or to win? I'd say her chances of getting into the starting gate are worse than her winning.

I've written recently I think she'll be retired. She doesn't look like near the same horse to me. For further proof, what is there to be gained by running next in the Lady's Secret? The connections know she isn't the same...in my opinion.

[cj]

That's why I said what I said...I thought it was funny!

I try...it gets confusing without those emoticons. I just can't use them though, the little guy would have my ass.

[horses4courses]

I've written recently I think she'll be retired. She doesn't look like near the same horse to me. For further proof, what is there to be gained by running next in the Lady's Secret? The connections know she isn't the same...in my opinion.


I can't agree with that.

Guessing as to her preparedness right now, I'd say she is 70-80%.
Will she be fully cranked up by November?
I believe that she will be.....

[cj]

I can't agree with that.

Guessing as to her preparedness right now, I'd say she is 70-80%.
Will she be fully cranked up by November?
I believe that she will be.....

There is no way a horse is 70 to 80% prepared and still winning, even against pathetic fields. At 70 to 80% she couldn't win a high priced claimer. Do you actually know the difference between a G1 performer and claimer in terms of time on the clock?

[horses4courses]

There is no way a horse is 70 to 80% prepared and still winning, even against pathetic fields. At 70 to 80% she couldn't win a high priced claimer. Do you actually know the difference between a G1 performer and claimer in terms of time on the clock?

You're the clock expert.
I've only been watching G1 races for over 40 years.
I have learned this.....horses are not 100% wound up all the time.

You, also, contradict yourself, oh Wise One.
5-1 on a horse winning the BC Classic who you think will be retired?
Shame on you.....

Keep a firm hand on your stopwatch there, my friend.
Claimers break track records on your freeway-like dirt tracks with regularity.

[Wickel]

I watched the replay of the Clement Hirsch several times on TVG, where there was an isolated shot down the lane of Zenyatta. Smith hit her one time late; the rest of the time he was flagging her. When you watch the regular replay at normal speed, he appears to hit her about seven or eight times, but he's actually flagging her.

[cj]

You, also, contradict yourself, oh Wise One.
5-1 on a horse winning the BC Classic who you think will be retired?
Shame on you.....


Why offer 10 to 1 or 20 to 1 when the same people will bet her at 5 to 1?

[PaceAdvantage]

For Zenyatta to go 19 for 20 in her career, with say a fast closing 3rd in the BC Classic against males, with a record number of grade ones, the only mare to win the Classic, and the highest money earning mare in thoroughbred history, it would be a shocking for her not to have a HOY on her resume; in fact, I think it would be bad for racing.It wouldn't make a hill of beans difference for racing, IMHO.

[PaceAdvantage]

Easy...

Blame, Rachel Alexandra, Blind Luck, Rail Trip, Quality Road, Musket Man, Lookin At Lucky, Battle Plan.Careful...you're gonna cause some to bust a gasket with that list...

On a side note, I still don't get all the hype building around Lookin' At Lucky.

If there is one horse I think Zenyatta can beat off that list, it's LAL...

[cj]

Careful...you're gonna cause some to bust a gasket with that list...

On a side note, I still don't get all the hype building around Lookin' At Lucky.

If there is one horse I think Zenyatta can beat off that list, it's LAL...

I've always thought he was the best 3yo, but his Haskell really moved him up in my eyes.

[bisket]

i think the only horse that could win no matter how the race sets up is zenyatta. now if she's victim of some race riding, being blocked in the stretch etc. it think three from your list could win if the race sets up for them: quality road, blame, and lucky. now its doubtful to me that lucky and blame will be able to sustain form.

i can tell you the type of horse that i'll be building my exotic around because i think the race could very well set up for this type: arson squad and awsome gem. i think an even type runner could take this race. all of the pace is suspect at 1 1/4 mile and if zenyatta gets blocked or something it could fall into an even runners lap. sort of how arson squad beat rail trip in the gold cup. pace slows so they can get the distance, and in the stretch an even runner keeps plugging away at 12 sec per fur and gets past....... drosselmeyer!!!!

when pace slows to the degree that has happened on many occassions this year it becomes a test of stamina. an even runner excels at this... not speed!!! (zardana and unrivaled belle over rachel) i don't agree with albert stall in regards to his quote that blame has overcome pace. he has recieved the pace he needs... slow because i don't see a turn of foot in blame. just a nice sustained even run. although his odds won't be worth the play in the classic

the play is only worth it at the odds i think i'm going to get. the thought process...... play the race not the horses.

[pandy]

Beachbabe has it right, closers are at a distinct disadvantage, and in this race, the pace was unbelievably slow but it doesn't matter to a super horse.

[MNslappy]

how much does pace matter to closers on that surface?

[FenceBored]

i think the only horse that could win no matter how the race sets up is zenyatta. now if she's victim of some race riding, being blocked in the stretch etc. it think three from your list could win if the race sets up for them: quality road, blame, and lucky. now its doubtful to me that lucky and blame will be able to sustain form.

i can tell you the type of horse that i'll be building my exotic around because i think the race could very well set up for this type: arson squad and awsome gem. i think an even type runner could take this race. all of the pace is suspect at 1 1/4 mile and if zenyatta gets blocked or something it could fall into an even runners lap. sort of how arson squad beat rail trip in the gold cup. pace slows so they can get the distance, and in the stretch an even runner keeps plugging away at 12 sec per fur and gets past....... drosselmeyer!!!!

when pace slows to the degree that has happened on many occassions this year it becomes a test of stamina. an even runner excels at this... not speed!!! (zardana and unrivaled belle over rachel) i don't agree with albert stall in regards to his quote that blame has overcome pace. he has recieved the pace he needs... slow because i don't see a turn of foot in blame. just a nice sustained even run. although his odds won't be worth the play in the classic

the play is only worth it at the odds i think i'm going to get. the thought process...... play the race not the horses.

You want a nice even runner who keeps putting up the 12 sec. furlongs, therefore you don't like Blame (who keeps putting up the 12 sec. furlongs). Got it. :ThmbUp:

[Robert Fischer]

how much does pace matter to closers on that surface?

tons

you run the risk of almost any horse finishing well on turf and holding off the closer given that horse has an easy slow lead. Slow paces often bother a turf "speed" horse less as they can often rate. Following that point, at a distance of ground(beyond the soft routes like yesterdays mile&1/16th) a group of horses actually specialize at controlling moderate paces.

[Cratos]

I agree that Zenyatta wasn't going to lose even if the race were another quarter mile longer...she's just that good over the synthetics...an absolute freak...and it doesn't hurt that her competition is just plain sucky most of the time.

However, to extrapolate that to say she would be perfectly capable of beating Grade 1 males over a dirt surface is the height of insanity.

There is no way she wins the Whitney today...my opinion of course...

Too bad we have to live in the world of the theoretical when it comes to Zenyatta.

This is not to start an argument because I am both a big Zenyatta fan and a Quality Road fan, but if Zenyatta was in the Whitney and it was run exactly like it was last Saturday I see Zenyatta getting the distance in 1:48 flat easily.

Blame got the distance in 1:48.88 I think and if he did that would put Zenyatta about 5 lengths ahead of him at the finish of the Whitney.

[joanied]

I've always thought he was the best 3yo, but his Haskell really moved him up in my eyes.

If he hadn't gotten sick...twice, we would have seen him at Saratoga, IMO...Baffert ain't scared, and he would have run him...but, I've been a Lucky fan since he won his 2nd start...and I agree with you, cj...I also think he's the best 3 yr old out there. Baffert will have him 110% come BC day...and IMO, he'll be the one giving Zenny some troubles.

[DeanT]

I've written recently I think she'll be retired. She doesn't look like near the same horse to me. For further proof, what is there to be gained by running next in the Lady's Secret? The connections know she isn't the same...in my opinion.

She looks to me to be tailing off too, but how much? Hard for me to tell. What do you think?

I think the Lady's Secret of 2008 was her best race (imo), mainly because she was in the right spot and had some pace. I think she runs a huge Beyer there if asked to run, or in against something that makes her work. If that race happens today I figure she is three or four lengths worse at the very least.

JMO.

[bisket]

This is not to start an argument because I am both a big Zenyatta fan and a Quality Road fan, but if Zenyatta was in the Whitney and it was run exactly like it was last Saturday I see Zenyatta getting the distance in 1:48 flat easily.

Blame got the distance in 1:48.88 I think and if he did that would put Zenyatta about 5 lengths ahead of him at the finish of the Whitney.
answering a couple posts in this...

fence: maybe i didn't explain myself all that well. i put blame in the same catagory with arson squad and awsome gem; just he's gonna be 5-1 or so and those two will be 20 to 30-1. i just think with this type of odds scenerio i like arson and awesome as a much better value. now i'm not saying my play will be on these two. i'm just saying looking at how races have been run this year this type of runner will be an attractive play.

cratos
i'm quite sure zenyatta could have dusted that crowd on that particular day.

[tucker6]

Some of the commentary from the Z crowd is truly astounding. It's like reality has been banned from existence. I don't know if it's sarcasm or plain stupidity. Please use the emoticon next time to let me know. Thanks!

[bisket]

tons

you run the risk of almost any horse finishing well on turf and holding off the closer given that horse has an easy slow lead. Slow paces often bother a turf "speed" horse less as they can often rate. Following that point, at a distance of ground(beyond the soft routes like yesterdays mile&1/16th) a group of horses actually specialize at controlling moderate paces.

i have a name for horses like blame. its inspired by the ground ball "with eyes" that makes it between two infielders in baseball. i call them a tweener.. they need a soft pace thats fast enough to cook the speed for some reason or another, but not fast enough to give the closer an advantage. i just think zenyatta is sort of like kelso in that all this just doesn't matter when it comes to her.

[Relwob Owner]

i have a name for horses like blame. its inspired by the ground ball "with eyes" that makes it between two infielders in baseball. i call them a tweener.. they need a soft pace thats fast enough to cook the speed for some reason or another, but not fast enough to give the closer an advantage. i just think zenyatta is sort of like kelso in that all this just doesn't matter when it comes to her.


94 Beyer
111 Beyer


Explain "soft pace that is fast enough to cook the speed for one reason or another"...

[carlonr]

Have you ever read a direct quote from Moss or Shirreffs that she is being pointed towards the BC Classic? I've never seen one. I've only read the reporter assuming that's where they're pointing, but I have never read the spoken words of Zenyatta's connections saying they want the Classic.


Owner Jerry Moss, a Grammy Award winner and founder of A &M Records, added, "It's all sweet. Having this horse is a miracle. It's so great the fans turn out for her."

Asked if Zenyatta might return later in the meet for the $1 million Pacific Classic (gr. I), Moss said, "I don't think so. This was her spot (at Del Mar). We want to run a mile-and-a-quarter later this year (in the Breeders' Cup) and save her for that."


http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/58287/zenyatta-streak-at-18-with-hirsch-three-peat

[carlonr]

53 feet further than the second place horse! 5 or six lengths!

[cj]

i call them a tweener.. they need a soft pace thats fast enough to cook the speed for some reason or another, but not fast enough to give the closer an advantage.

Blame got the distance in 1:48.88 I think and if he did that would put Zenyatta about 5 lengths ahead of him at the finish of the Whitney.

I'm trying to figure out which of these is more ridiculous.

[horses4courses]

I'm trying to figure out which of these is more ridiculous.

I agree with that. Those statements make little sense.
Blame would have been more effective closing into a faster pace.
He did just fine, under a less than ideal scenario.

It looks like he will be even more effective at a longer distance, and he has shown that he likes Churchill.
A strong contender for the BC Classic.

[FenceBored]

answering a couple posts in this...

fence: maybe i didn't explain myself all that well. i put blame in the same catagory with arson squad and awsome gem; just he's gonna be 5-1 or so and those two will be 20 to 30-1. i just think with this type of odds scenerio i like arson and awesome as a much better value. now i'm not saying my play will be on these two. i'm just saying looking at how races have been run this year this type of runner will be an attractive play.


Gotcha, strictly a value question.

[Headbanger]

tons

you run the risk of almost any horse finishing well on turf and holding off the closer given that horse has an easy slow lead. Slow paces often bother a turf "speed" horse less as they can often rate. Following that point, at a distance of ground(beyond the soft routes like yesterdays mile&1/16th) a group of horses actually specialize at controlling moderate paces.

You couldn't be more wrong here, as turf races come down generally to the last 3 furlongs and synthetics play much like that. Slow paces matter much more in dirt racing, as often times, slower paced dirt races give more staying power to the front runners that set the pace, compared to turf and synthetic racing where closers and classier horses are able to run down speeds in slow paced races because the fields are more compact and turn of foot is a much bigger factor on turf and synthetics, so in reality, pace in synthetic and turf races means very little I have figured out, at least much less when comparing to dirt races.

[Headbanger]

I'm trying to figure out which of these is more ridiculous.

Sharp Post

[Robert Fischer]

tons

you run the risk of almost any horse finishing well on turf and holding off the closer given that horse has an easy slow lead. Slow paces often bother a turf "speed" horse less as they can often rate. Following that point, at a distance of ground(beyond the soft routes like yesterdays mile&1/16th) a group of horses actually specialize at controlling moderate paces.

You couldn't be more wrong here, as turf races come down generally to the last 3 furlongs and synthetics play much like that. Slow paces matter much more in dirt racing, as often times, slower paced dirt races give more staying power to the front runners that set the pace, compared to turf and synthetic racing where closers and classier horses are able to run down speeds in slow paced races because the fields are more compact and turn of foot is a much bigger factor on turf and synthetics, so in reality, pace in synthetic and turf races means very little I have figured out, at least much less when comparing to dirt races.

You are saying some very insightful things here.
I did a very vague job of illustrating my perspective, so I can certainly see where you are coming from. I'll try to expound, if we still see things very differently, then so be it - variety of opinion is healthy :ThmbUp:.

First I am looking at races such that are similar to the Clement Hirsch.-







One Dominant Power(Z) and "the pack"
Dominant Power is a one-run deep closer
a "dangerous" short-route turf or synth distance(such as 1m&1/16th) where none of " the pack" give stamina concessions to "the Power"
this 3rd qualification is important, because it is subtly surface related. - Among similar dirt races, "stamina-free" situations are rare. Perhaps the environment with which stamina-free dirt races occur is unstable.


further, because of the (lack of)balance of powers between the Dominant Power and The Pack, the objective of the pack should be forced to play the hand of SlowPace strategy.
As this strategy element relates to surface, In general we should see the Synth/Turf "pack" adapt better to this strategy than their dirt counter parts. The blade runners should be more rateable, while the dust-busters(;) ?) are more likely to include runners who can't rate/must sprint. The synth/turf crowd also stands a probability of being able to rate a slow targeted pace without being hurt away from the comfort-zone of many dirt "high-cruisers" who expend energy with rankness seemingly worse while rated than w/ loose reigns.

If "Zenyatta" is so dominant over the pack, then pack strategy and tactics logically are important.

A final point which I believe is important, but am again using a lot of subjective support for is the danger of the "slow pace specialist" in these types of races. These pace-setting types who counter-intuitively thrive on a surface that is more friendly to closers.
These situational pace-setting "thieves", able to steal a race should it come up "paceless", and/or suit them in track dimensions, rail placement, weather, etc... When these types or even their "Jr." versions get their dream setups with painfully slow fractions they force a horse who may be 15 lengths better under "average" circumstance to be all out for a couple lengths or less.

[WinterTriangle]

Some of the commentary from the Z crowd is truly astounding. It's like reality has been banned from existence.

I feel that way about QR getting 1-1/4. :) I think he's a dynamite horse but for that distance I'm just not convinced....today

[WeirdWilly]

Until Zenyatta wins two G1s in the same day against 12+ horse fields while carrying 250 lbs and giving the other horses a 5 second head start, she's a pony ride nag!

:lol:

Whether or not she is the greatest racehorse ever, I still can't understand all the Z dissing.

What's cool is people who will NEVER visit this board (like women) have fun watching her. Is that bad for horse racing? Or should enjoyment of the "Sport of Kings" be limited to us middle-aged and up guys who can come up with a million and two race scenarios where this cool lass can be beat by the "boys"?

[WeirdWilly]

There is a video thread around here somewhere that has video of some 'the greats' from the past

These people who think zenyatta is one of the greats, need to watch some video

The ladies love Zenyatta, and I love the ladies, so by default, I love Zenyatta.

[tucker6]

I feel that way about QR getting 1-1/4. :) I think he's a dynamite horse but for that distance I'm just not convinced....today
Agreed WT. I've always felt his best was between 8-9F. My point on Zenyatta is the same. I believe she's a very good horse who runs on a surface that supports her style, but that style is not equally translatable to dirt. I get the sense from some that she is the best at all distances and on all surfaces. That simply is impossible.

[bisket]

I'm trying to figure out which of these is more ridiculous.
rookie

[bisket]

You are saying some very insightful things here.
I did a very vague job of illustrating my perspective, so I can certainly see where you are coming from. I'll try to expound, if we still see things very differently, then so be it - variety of opinion is healthy :ThmbUp:.

First I am looking at races such that are similar to the Clement Hirsch.-







One Dominant Power(Z) and "the pack"
Dominant Power is a one-run deep closer
a "dangerous" short-route turf or synth distance(such as 1m&1/16th) where none of " the pack" give stamina concessions to "the Power"
this 3rd qualification is important, because it is subtly surface related. - Among similar dirt races, "stamina-free" situations are rare. Perhaps the environment with which stamina-free dirt races occur is unstable.


further, because of the (lack of)balance of powers between the Dominant Power and The Pack, the objective of the pack should be forced to play the hand of SlowPace strategy.
As this strategy element relates to surface, In general we should see the Synth/Turf "pack" adapt better to this strategy than their dirt counter parts. The blade runners should be more rateable, while the dust-busters(;) ?) are more likely to include runners who can't rate/must sprint. The synth/turf crowd also stands a probability of being able to rate a slow targeted pace without being hurt away from the comfort-zone of many dirt "high-cruisers" who expend energy with rankness seemingly worse while rated than w/ loose reigns.

If "Zenyatta" is so dominant over the pack, then pack strategy and tactics logically are important.

A final point which I believe is important, but am again using a lot of subjective support for is the danger of the "slow pace specialist" in these types of races. These pace-setting types who counter-intuitively thrive on a surface that is more friendly to closers.
These situational pace-setting "thieves", able to steal a race should it come up "paceless", and/or suit them in track dimensions, rail placement, weather, etc... When these types or even their "Jr." versions get their dream setups with painfully slow fractions they force a horse who may be 15 lengths better under "average" circumstance to be all out for a couple lengths or less.
you have an excellent understanding of what i'm talking about. i just want to add one point about dirt. sometimes when speed is trained for slower pace on dirt it takes them out of their "game". as we all know when a horse gets out of their comfort zone you cannot expect their best effort. this particular group of speed horses has shown on numerous occassions that they just don't give a good effort when rated. at least not an effort that puts them in the winners circle in the classic!! i still have horse in mind that's not on anyone's radar right now. i hope upon hope he finishes second or third next out$$

to headbanger
yes it is true that when speed is rated it will have more stamina in the stretch, but i don't think their chances of victory in these situations matches the return on investment anymore. this particular group has shown a propensity to let horses past that they should beat. play them at short odds going 1 1/4 mile.... no thanks. especially when it happens at 1 1/8 mile.

[bisket]

If he hadn't gotten sick...twice, we would have seen him at Saratoga, IMO...Baffert ain't scared, and he would have run him...but, I've been a Lucky fan since he won his 2nd start...and I agree with you, cj...I also think he's the best 3 yr old out there. Baffert will have him 110% come BC day...and IMO, he'll be the one giving Zenny some troubles.
i was nervous when it happened on one occassion. now that its happened twice. i'm afraid lucky may just be a little worn. he's been in training since last summer without a break, and unlike all the older horses he's already been through the triple crown series. if he's able to make the classic with a top effort he's one heckuva horsey.

[Vinnie]

I feel that way about QR getting 1-1/4. :) I think he's a dynamite horse but for that distance I'm just not convinced....today

WT:

I echo your sentiments, however, I would still be worried about QR if facing him gong forward even at the distance of 1 1/4. First off, right off the bat, I have to give Blame and his connections 100% their due for getting up and beating QR on the square. No excuses, he won the race fair and square. He (Blame) did an awesome job and he beat QR outright, no doubt about it. I just thought that it was a strangely run race in the fact that how in the world does QR run an almost pedestrian 48 flat or so in the half and end up in roughly a time of 148.88 at a distance of 1 1/8th? This is a horse that has run considerably faster and set two track records at this same distance. Johhny V himself said that QR never really got into the bit as he usually does which I believe that he too found to be strange. When I watch the replay of the race, I truly wonder if QR was ever truly comfortable in the race this past Saturday. Of course, these awesome horses aren't machines. (I am glad that they are not!) :) I just thought that oddly enough, QR didn't seem to be all that interested in the running of the majority of this race. I could easily be wrong in my assessment of course. Heck, I truly do hope that he still makes it into the BC Classic race because hopefully he is in very good health and can be there. Do most folks think that it could possibly be a good idea to consider entering a "Rabbit" in there to assist him or to help insinuate him into that type of pace where he seems to most excel and give the type of effort that he is truly capable of giving? I am just very curious to hear what many on this board's take on such a thing might be? :)

Once again, major kudos go out to Blame and his connections on a truly fabulous effort in winning the Whitney.

[PaceAdvantage]

rookieMaybe you should take him on in a handicapping contest...you know...only11 vs. dahoss style...

[PaceAdvantage]

It's sad that the very same Zenyatta die hards that live in the world of the theoretical feel perfectly comfortable mocking those of us who also theorize in the opposite direction.

You guys all act as if you have some sort of facts on your side when you say she would have beaten Quality Road and Blame by five lengths in the Whitney, but you have absolutely nothing factual to back that up with concerning her performances (or lack thereof) on dirt against top class company.

Her two dirt races at Oaklawn, if anything, show she would have been destroyed in the Whitney. Yet folks like Cratos and da bizkit theorize she would have won by five...and then have the nerve to criticize folks like me who theorize the opposite.

Too bad her connections continue to keep us in the dark...racing in the Personal Ensign would have been a big help in settling which theory is correct.

[GaryG]

If Moss doesn't wuss out it will all hit the fan at CD. That she would have beaten Blame and QR by open lengths is patently absurd. Remember all of those threads about RA ducking everybody?

[Robert Fischer]

Her two dirt races at Oaklawn, if anything, show she would have been destroyed in the Whitney. Yet folks like Cratos and da bizkit theorize she would have won by five...and then have the nerve to criticize folks like me who theorize the opposite.

With all due respect, I don't know what races you are watching...
she looked like a monster in the Apple Blossom at Oaklawn.

After watching the Whitney and the way Blame was able to win from off the pace...
One of two scenarios played out in the Whitney -

A) Blame ran a tremendous race, the only one to make a move all race and beats grade I QR
or B) Blame benefited from a tired QR in a race that Benefited good closers
In scenario B) Zenyatta with anything similar to her Apple Blossom condition absolutely imbibes the field, presumably by 2 or more lengths.

Scenario A) Blame is the HOY

[Headbanger]

With all due respect, I don't know what races you are watching...
she looked like a monster in the Apple Blossom at Oaklawn.

After watching the Whitney and the way Blame was able to win from off the pace...
One of two scenarios played out in the Whitney -

A) Blame ran a tremendous race, the only one to make a move all race and beats grade I QR
or B) Blame benefited from a tired QR in a race that Benefited good closers
In scenario B) Zenyatta with anything similar to her Apple Blossom condition absolutely imbibes the field, presumably by 2 or more lengths.

Scenario A) Blame is the HOY

You can't be serious about her Apple Blossom races can you be? Because if you are, I hope you bet, and bet a lot. The first year she won the Apple Blossom it was over a weak field considering Brownie Points was second in there and she was a decent stakes horse who reliably ran beyers in the low to mid 90s. The big "attraction" horse that day was Ginger Punch who was never really that much to begin with and Ginger Punch didn't run a step that day. Fast forward to this year where she faced one of the worst possible Grade 1 fields on dirt you could imagine as she beat Taptam and Be Fair...as for those two, let me just we aren't talking about Personal Ensign and Winning Colors. She looked impressive in the two Apple Blossoms because she beat up on absolute crap, but when comparing her to the stopwatch she wasn't so good.

[DeanT]

You can't be serious about her Apple Blossom races can you be? Because if you are, I hope you bet, and bet a lot. The first year she won the Apple Blossom it was over a weak field considering Brownie Points was second in there and she was a decent stakes horse who reliably ran beyers in the low to mid 90s. The big "attraction" horse that day was Ginger Punch who was never really that much to begin with and Ginger Punch didn't run a step that day. Fast forward to this year where she faced one of the worst possible Grade 1 fields on dirt you could imagine as she beat Taptam and Be Fair...as for those two, let me just we aren't talking about Personal Ensign and Winning Colors. She looked impressive in the two Apple Blossoms because she beat up on absolute crap, but when comparing her to the stopwatch she wasn't so good.

Robert does quite well betting this game.

I wonder: Why are you looking at her competition when in both her Apple Blossom's she did absolutely no running? Are you not able to extrapolate her wins and say "sure she raced a poor Ginger Punch that day, but she would have destroyed her even if she was good because she barely ran a half furlong to beat her?"

Why do we care who is in a field when she wins those races while doing absolutely no running?

It's like someone watching Usain Bolt win all his pre-olympic races in 10.1 without breaking a sweat, saying they are bad races and that he did not beat anybody, and fading him in the Olympics.

I could see the opine before she won the BC, coming home in 22.4 through traffic, proving without a doubt she can go faster than many gave her credit for throughout her career up to that point (me included, to be quite frank), however to do that after that makes me scratch my head.

[Headbanger]

Robert does quite well betting this game.

I wonder: Why are you looking at her competition when in both her Apple Blossom's she did absolutely no running? Are you not able to extrapolate her wins and say "sure she raced a poor Ginger Punch that day, but she would have destroyed her even if she was good because she barely ran a half furlong to beat her?"

Why do we care who is in a field when she wins those races while doing absolutely no running?

It's like someone watching Usain Bolt win all his pre-olympic races in 10.1 without breaking a sweat, saying they are bad races and that he did not beat anybody, and fading him in the Olympics.

I could see the opine before she won the BC, coming home in 22.4 through traffic, proving without a doubt she can go faster than many gave her credit for throughout her career up to that point (me included, to be quite frank), however to do that after that makes me scratch my head.

Because when you face abysmal fields, you really don't have to do much running to beat them. Common sense just goes out the window when dealing with Zenyatta fans. It's quite simple, she's a synthetic specialist who from her numbers is simply not as good on the dirt. She's a wonderful horse but until she proves it, in no way, shape, or form can she be considered a better horse on dirt.

[DeanT]

Because when you face abysmal fields, you really don't have to do much running to beat them. Common sense just goes out the window when dealing with Zenyatta fans. It's quite simple, she's a synthetic specialist who from her numbers is simply not as good on the dirt. She's a wonderful horse but until she proves it, in no way, shape, or form can she be considered a better horse on dirt.

I never mentioned dirt or synth. But since you did. How do you judge where a horse is better or worse on those surfaces in a small data study?

From my study I judge horse's ability on each surface (for handicapping the races) in three areas. If a horse moves from synth to dirt, like Zenyatta, I look at:

1. How fast she went - clearly with her as a deep closer this is taken with a grain of salt sometimes, but it is an obvious factor
2. How she traveled over the surface - horses who hate a surface are rank, or simply do not look comfortable
3. Turn of foot - self explanatory
4. How she finished - I, like everyone, has seen a dirt horse completely stop the last sixteenth on the guck. They dont finish well because they have been through a war on the stuff.

Imo, (I know you put it as an inarguable doctrine that she is much better on synth and is a synth specialist, however I am allowed an opinion):

1. Speed fig: She went a 104 without even working at the AB. That is in line, with those splits what one would expect her to run on synth. I think everyone can agree she won that race easily.
2. How she traveled: She traveled excellently over the dirt. She looked comfortable and happy. It was like she was at Hollywood Park
3. Turn of foot: 10 and a half seconds in an eighth of a mile around the turn inhaling the field in this year's AB says she has that down just fine.
4. Tired at the end? I think she could have competed in an iron horse triathalon after her two AB wins. She was anything but reaching for the wire.

So yes, you could be correct. But, imo, there is ample evidence you are not.

[Steve R]

[snip]...1. How fast she went - clearly with her as a deep closer this is taken with a grain of salt sometimes, but it is an obvious factor...[snip]
I don't understand this statement. Are you implying that her deep closing style precludes fast times? If so, there are many examples that contradict such a scenario. Buckpasser equaled the track record in the Travers coming from at least 12 lengths back and getting the first half mile in :49.4. Assault ran within three ticks of the track record in the Pimlico Special coming from 14 back with 4f and 6f splits of :51 flat and 1:15.2. Am I misinterpreting what you are saying?

[DeanT]

I don't understand this statement. Are you implying that her deep closing style precludes fast times? If so, there are many examples that contradict such a scenario. Buckpasser equaled the track record in the Travers coming from at least 12 lengths back and getting the first half mile in :49.4. Assault ran within three ticks of the track record in the Pimlico Special coming from 14 back with 4f and 6f splits of :51 flat and 1:15.2. Am I misinterpreting what you are saying?

Sure deep closers win in fast times. Some deep closers win by twenty; we see that at MNR in a cheap claimer. They are shot out of a cannon and race their last two panels like they are running away from a fire, not at all unlike a speed horse races when he is rolling - just at a different part of the race. I think we can both agree that this mare does not race like that. She has the talent to beat a 5 claimer field at River Downs by 30, but she wont. That, imo, is what some people have a really hard time with, with this mare.

[JustRalph]

closers with big numbers and track records usually get those numbers at the benefit of someone else ? No ?

In other words.....somebody up front is doing the work for them

[bisket]

steve and dean:
i just think many handicappers that rely heavily on speed figures just feel a closer is slow. in alot of cases this is true, but not all the time. a horse like zenyatta is different, and many speed handicappers just don't understand. what makes zenyatta different? its the fact that she has an incredible turn of foot. many horses display this on poly, but can't transfer that turn of foot to dirt. in her case this is absolutely not true.

with zenyatta in her dirt races its not necessarily something you can see by looking at splits because she didn't need to run fast. if as a handicapper you have the ability to visually see this turn of foot without seeing times you know she doesn't have a problem with the surface. she only accelerated for 200 yards or so in her dirt races.

i honestly think many people that have a "huge data base" just need to see it in the splits 4 or five times before they are aware what a horse is capable of doing. :lol: i really only need to see something once from a horse to know she can do it. i get good odds on many of my plays. if the data base guys can get by playing 3/5 all the time.... more power to them. i know today what they figure out next month. i know in alot of cases that drives the data base guys up the wall. i really enjoy it though. i can see that you can visually see something and have the guts to play it. that makes it much easier to have a positive roi in these days of computer programming. i essentially think thats the big difference between handicappers that see zenyatta's ability, and those that don't..... believe what you see and have the guts to play it

[PaceAdvantage]

steve and dean:
i just think many handicappers that rely heavily on speed figures just feel a closer is slow. in alot of cases this is true, but not all the time. a horse like zenyatta is different, and many speed handicappers just don't understand. what makes zenyatta different? its the fact that she has an incredible turn of foot. many horses display this on poly, but can't transfer that turn of foot to dirt. in her case this is absolutely not true.

with zenyatta in her dirt races its not necessarily something you can see by looking at splits because she didn't need to run fast. if as a handicapper you have the ability to visually see this turn of foot without seeing times you know she doesn't have a problem with the surface. she only accelerated for 200 yards or so in her dirt races.

i honestly think many people that have a "huge data base" just need to see it in the splits 4 or five times before they are aware what a horse is capable of doing. :lol: i really only need to see something once from a horse to know she can do it. i get good odds on many of my plays. if the data base guys can get by playing 3/5 all the time.... more power to them. i know today what they figure out next month. i know in alot of cases that drives the data base guys up the wall. i really enjoy it though. i can see that you can visually see something and have the guts to play it. that makes it much easier to have a positive roi in these days of computer programming. i essentially think thats the big difference between handicappers that see zenyatta's ability, and those that don't..... believe what you see and have the guts to play itI love the "you're all idiots" type of reply. You and classhandicapper seem to have that market cornered.

[Robert Fischer]

[surely]You can't be serious about her Apple Blossom races can you be? Because if you are, I hope you bet, and bet a lot. The first year she won the Apple Blossom it was over a weak field considering Brownie Points was second in there and she was a decent stakes horse who reliably ran beyers in the low to mid 90s. The big "attraction" horse that day was Ginger Punch who was never really that much to begin with and Ginger Punch didn't run a step that day. Fast forward to this year where she faced one of the worst possible Grade 1 fields on dirt you could imagine as she beat Taptam and Be Fair...as for those two, let me just we aren't talking about Personal Ensign and Winning Colors. She looked impressive in the two Apple Blossoms because she beat up on absolute crap, but when comparing her to the stopwatch she wasn't so good.

I am serious... and don't call me Shirley ;)


Differing opinions can prove to be a positive catalyst. :ThmbUp:


(the following will be referring to the "9 April 2010" Apple Blossom)

One possible major discrepancy is the amount of importance(or value) we place on Zenyatta's rivals in the Apple Blossom.
-I don't automatically consider that because rivals "ABC" project to likely performances of "XYZ" then such and such must be true of our Focus-Horse...

My rule of thumb:ThmbUp: is that unless one or more horses "duel" with the focus-horse at some point in the race (my definition of "duel"= two or more horse who compete while having a similar setup), I put very little consideration into the matchups of the rivals.

Some exceptions:
When the evaluated focus-horse is unknown to me (possibly a new horse, or major changes, or maybe a long layoff/injury etc..)- even so, should the new horse show something unique from the replay and chart alone, I may again make little use of rival's projections.

Also, I do attempt to know an excessive amount of information about each relevant horse(in no way do I advocate not caring to know the field), my time invested and extensive watch lists are borderline obsessive. I just don't necessarily treat all races as a direct matchup of projected abilities.

The way that the Apple Blossom was run, there wasn't much for me to compare to the others - she basically stalked them from the rear and powerfully swooped past with a well-timed run, while looking like the powerful giant that she has in her big races. Zenyatta never challenged a specific horse in the AB, she simply devastated the mediocre pack. Because there was no challenge, and she simply executed a timing-based move with unfathomable limits to the extent of her "speed" against a mediocre pack, only subjective estimates can be made regarding her ability that day.

Rather than guess at "speed" or worse grossly underestimate it by projecting a figure somewhere between her history and the runner-ups, I choose to instead focus on her physical condition and studying her physical movement(?)(coming up blanks with the word i want, biomechanics is a geeky overkill version)
AND maybe most important, whether or not she handles the DIRT surface well.

It is redundant for me to analyze abstracts like final time, speed, fractional splits, etc, when I know Zenyatta so well already, and I did not happen to see a change in her physical look.

Watching her run over the Oaklawn dirt surface, it was clear to me that Zenyatta handled that surface as well as she does synthetic. There was no stalling or hesitation when asked for run. There was none of the tell-tale action where a horse appears to maintain typical stride turnover rate - while moving worse and slower. No "Struggling" appearance- another tell-tale sign. Obviously there was no "slipping" (losing ground prior to the turn), OR unusual tiring OR need for constant scrubbing/encouragement/asking from the jockey in odd places. If there was ANYTHING to nitpick it was her sluggish start. Most importantly, Zenyatta displayed the same action over dirt as in her synthetic races.

[Shelby]

Until Zenyatta wins two G1s in the same day against 12+ horse fields while carrying 250 lbs and giving the other horses a 5 second head start, she's a pony ride nag!

:lol:

Whether or not she is the greatest racehorse ever, I still can't understand all the Z dissing.

What's cool is people who will NEVER visit this board (like women) have fun watching her. Is that bad for horse racing? Or should enjoyment of the "Sport of Kings" be limited to us middle-aged and up guys who can come up with a million and two race scenarios where this cool lass can be beat by the "boys"?

I'm a woman and I visit this board..........

;)

[ohbaby]

I am serious... and don't call me Shirley ;)


Differing opinions can prove to be a positive catalyst. :ThmbUp:


(the following will be referring to the "9 April 2010" Apple Blossom)

One possible major discrepancy is the amount of importance(or value) we place on Zenyatta's rivals in the Apple Blossom.
-I don't automatically consider that because rivals "ABC" project to likely performances of "XYZ" then such and such must be true of our Focus-Horse...

My rule of thumb:ThmbUp: is that unless one or more horses "duel" with the focus-horse at some point in the race (my definition of "duel"= two or more horse who compete while having a similar setup), I put very little consideration into the matchups of the rivals.

Some exceptions:
When the evaluated focus-horse is unknown to me (possibly a new horse, or major changes, or maybe a long layoff/injury etc..)- even so, should the new horse show something unique from the replay and chart alone, I may again make little use of rival's projections.

Also, I do attempt to know an excessive amount of information about each relevant horse(in no way do I advocate not caring to know the field), my time invested and extensive watch lists are borderline obsessive. I just don't necessarily treat all races as a direct matchup of projected abilities.

The way that the Apple Blossom was run, there wasn't much for me to compare to the others - she basically stalked them from the rear and powerfully swooped past with a well-timed run, while looking like the powerful giant that she has in her big races. Zenyatta never challenged a specific horse in the AB, she simply devastated the mediocre pack. Because there was no challenge, and she simply executed a timing-based move with unfathomable limits to the extent of her "speed" against a mediocre pack, only subjective estimates can be made regarding her ability that day.

Rather than guess at "speed" or worse grossly underestimate it by projecting a figure somewhere between her history and the runner-ups, I choose to instead focus on her physical condition and studying her physical movement(?)(coming up blanks with the word i want, biomechanics is a geeky overkill version)
AND maybe most important, whether or not she handles the DIRT surface well.

It is redundant for me to analyze abstracts like final time, speed, fractional splits, etc, when I know Zenyatta so well already, and I did not happen to see a change in her physical look.

Watching her run over the Oaklawn dirt surface, it was clear to me that Zenyatta handled that surface as well as she does synthetic. There was no stalling or hesitation when asked for run. There was none of the tell-tale action where a horse appears to maintain typical stride turnover rate - while moving worse and slower. No "Struggling" appearance- another tell-tale sign. Obviously there was no "slipping" (losing ground prior to the turn), OR unusual tiring OR need for constant scrubbing/encouragement/asking from the jockey in odd places. If there was ANYTHING to nitpick it was her sluggish start. Most importantly, Zenyatta displayed the same action over dirt as in her synthetic races.

It's obvious now Z is a bit of a freak. It's like she has no ceiling. This was my mistake in rating her before the BC. She runs just fast enough to win. So most of her speed ratings are based on her competition. Her numbers were very slow leading up to the Breeders Cup due to the company she kept or should I say chased away. It's obvious now it's all a game to her. She is just playing on the racetrack. Whether or not there is a speed duel, or fast fractions means very little to her because she is not depended on pace. She the best and and will find a way even if it means going 7 wide. She will never win big. She reaches the front and she thinks the games over, she's just playing.

[PaceAdvantage]

It's obvious now Z is a bit of a freak. It's like she has no ceiling. This was my mistake in rating her before the BC. She runs just fast enough to win. So most of her speed ratings are based on her competition. Her numbers were very slow leading up to the Breeders Cup due to the company she kept or should I say chased away. It's obvious now it's all a game to her. She is just playing on the racetrack. Whether or not there is a speed duel, or fast fractions means very little to her because she is not depended on pace. She the best and and will find a way even if it means going 7 wide. She will never win big. She reaches the front and she thinks the games over, she's just playing.This thesis will certainly be put to the test in the BC Classic this year. Don't like that she's only getting one shot on the dirt like this against the best of the best, but whatever...

I keep harping how the Personal Ensign against Rachel at Saratoga would have been a superb and useful test for Zenyatta in preparation for the Breeders' Cup Classic. I think Z's connections are missing a golden opportunity.

[pandy]

Bisket and Ohbaby, you are correct. She is toying with them and the figures are lower because of the pace and the slow surfaces she runs on. Zenyatta is faster on dirt, the So. Cal tracks are like quicksand compared to most dirt tracks. Speed can be measured incrementally and Zenyatta just happens to run extremely fast late. She is the opposite of horses like Ruffian and Seattle Slew, who ran them off their feet early and coasted home while slowing down. But she is just as fast, only late instead of early.

As for shipping to Saratoga, it would've been great but at this point they are obviously trying to protect the undefeated record and shipping across country less than three months before the big dance isn't the smartest way to get ready for the Classic and keep the undefeated record in tact at the same time.

[Robert Fischer]

I keep harping how the Personal Ensign against Rachel at Saratoga would have been a superb and useful test for Zenyatta in preparation for the Breeders' Cup Classic. I think Z's connections are missing a golden opportunity.
I think there is a lot of wisdom to this opinion. :ThmbUp:


Once Again, we ultimately return to a key issue:

=Your opinion of ZENYATTA's ability on DIRT factors heavily in the strategy

carefully mapping Zenyatta's road to the Breeders Cup

[born2ride]

Bisket and Ohbaby, you are correct. She is toying with them and the figures are lower because of the pace and the slow surfaces she runs on. Zenyatta is faster on dirt, the So. Cal tracks are like quicksand compared to most dirt tracks. Speed can be measured incrementally and Zenyatta just happens to run extremely fast late. She is the opposite of horses like Ruffian and Seattle Slew, who ran them off their feet early and coasted home while slowing down. But she is just as fast, only late instead of early.

As for shipping to Saratoga, it would've been great but at this point they are obviously trying to protect the undefeated record and shipping across country less than three months before the big dance isn't the smartest way to get ready for the Classic and keep the undefeated record in tact at the same time.

I'm not sure what you're referring to when you say Zenyatta is faster on dirt. What data is there to back this up?

[pandy]

Her move on the Apple Blossom in '08, in her 4th career start, was powerful, she made up 8 lengths so fast I couldn't believe what I was seeing. At that point I felt she was faster on dirt and I still believe that. These weird tracks out west are not good showcases for a fast horse, they are slow tracks so they make horses look slower than they really are. I don't see how anyone who watched that race can think she's a synthetic specialist. The people who own her live in California, that's why she races there, but they know she is faster on dirt. The bottom line is, whether your fast early or late, running on a deep and slow surface like Del Mar or Pro Ride slows you down. I know some people try to compare synthetics to turf, but it's not a good comparison because some turf courses are extremely fast when firm as the final times show.

[born2ride]

Her move on the Apple Blossom in '08, in her 4th career start, was powerful, she made up 8 lengths so fast I couldn't believe what I was seeing. At that point I felt she was faster on dirt and I still believe that. These weird tracks out west are not good showcases for a fast horse, they are slow tracks so they make horses look slower than they really are. I don't see how anyone who watched that race can think she's a synthetic specialist. The people who own her live in California, that's why she races there, but they know she is faster on dirt. The bottom line is, whether your fast early or late, running on a deep and slow surface like Del Mar or Pro Ride slows you down. I know some people try to compare synthetics to turf, but it's not a good comparison because some turf courses are extremely fast when firm as the final times show.

The opening pace in the '08 AB was faster than most of her other 8.5f races but it slowed down throughout resulting in one of her slowest finishing times at this distance. Making up 8 lengths was, IMO, as much a result of her running faster than her competitors as it was her competitors slowing down. Pointing to her making up 8 lengths against a slowing pace doesn't make her fast, it just means she's running faster than others. This does not take into account the surface, which I don't think will help bolster the statement that she is faster on dirt.

[cj]

This thesis will certainly be put to the test in the BC Classic this year. Don't like that she's only getting one shot on the dirt like this against the best of the best, but whatever...

I keep harping how the Personal Ensign against Rachel at Saratoga would have been a superb and useful test for Zenyatta in preparation for the Breeders' Cup Classic. I think Z's connections are missing a golden opportunity.

Yes, but how can Shirreffs be expected to leave both his other horses in the hands of an assistant?

[JustRalph]

Yes, but how can Shirreffs be expected to leave both his other horses in the hands of an assistant?
:lol:

[tucker6]

Yes, but how can Shirreffs be expected to leave both his other horses in the hands of an assistant?Ship them all to Belmont and have a traveling rodeo.

[PaceAdvantage]

She is the opposite of horses like Ruffian and Seattle Slew, who ran them off their feet early and coasted home while slowing down. But she is just as fast, only late instead of early.This comment makes little sense. If she is just as fast as Slew and Ruffian (your quote, not mine), then why isn't that reflected in the final time?

Don't tell me it's the surface. They run fast on turf. How long did Secretariat own the 1 1/2 mile record on BOTH dirt and turf? That's just one example.

Since I keep hearing how synthetics are very similar to turf, then a mare who is just as fast as Seattle Slew and Ruffian (again, your quote, not mine) should be making some sort of dent in the stopwatch.

[pandy]

How do you not get this? She's a deep closer. Most great horses like Slew, Ruffian, etc., are not deep closers so they can record faster times because they go as fast as they can as long as they can. Since Zenyatta is a closer, she only runs fast late and therefore is going to record a final time that is relevant to the pace. This is just basic stuff. You are over emphasizing speed figs. I don't see how anyone cannot understand this. Perhaps because it's so rare for a great horse to be a deep closer. She was 17 lengths behind in the classic and won easily, at 10 furlongs, that race was much more impressive than any race Quality Rd ran, even though he has higher figures. I saw Ruffian run twice in person and she was the fastest horse I ever saw and probably the fastest horse that ever lived for 6 furlongs to a mile, but Zenyatta could beat her at 10 furlongs because most horses, even great ones, are slowing down in a 10 furlong race (except Secretariat, maybe). That's why Zenyatta wins, she is accelerating and still fresh while the rest of the horses are understandably slowing down, and she's obviously not even all out when she does it.

[pandy]

I just hope these horses all make it to the Classic. Blame was powerful winning last week over Quality Road, I'd have to think that if anyone's going to give Zenyatta a battle it will be Blame.

[KingChas]

Her move on the Apple Blossom in '08, in her 4th career start, was powerful, she made up 8 lengths so fast I couldn't believe what I was seeing. At that point I felt she was faster on dirt and I still believe that.

I agree Pandy........... :ThmbUp:

Here the links are again since nobody watched when I posted last time, or maybe they just didn't see what they wanted to see. ;)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3X9171jxrlE

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1I9_Tx9t7z0&feature=related



Of course you know what's next,
She can probably only win on dirt at Oaklawn Park,
Poetry in motion Gentlemen. :kiss:

[PaceAdvantage]

How do you not get this? She's a deep closer. Most great horses like Slew, Ruffian, etc., are not deep closers so they can record faster times because they go as fast as they can as long as they can. Since Zenyatta is a closer, she only runs fast late and therefore is going to record a final time that is relevant to the pace. This is just basic stuff. You are over emphasizing speed figs. I don't see how anyone cannot understand this. Perhaps because it's so rare for a great horse to be a deep closer. She was 17 lengths behind in the classic and won easily, at 10 furlongs, that race was much more impressive than any race Quality Rd ran, even though he has higher figures. I saw Ruffian run twice in person and she was the fastest horse I ever saw and probably the fastest horse that ever lived for 6 furlongs to a mile, but Zenyatta could beat her at 10 furlongs because most horses, even great ones, are slowing down in a 10 furlong race (except Secretariat, maybe). That's why Zenyatta wins, she is accelerating and still fresh while the rest of the horses are understandably slowing down, and she's obviously not even all out when she does it.I understand perfectly about pace dependent closers. It is you who claimed that Zenyatta is "just as fast" as Seattle Slew and Ruffian, not me. That's the part I don't understand.

Exactly how do you come to the conclusion that in a race with Seattle Slew and Ruffian, those two will decelerate quickly enough at the end to allow Zenyatta to catch them?

Zenyatta will be at a huge disadvantage because she will be far, far, FAR behind the likes of a Seattle Slew or a Ruffian early on. How are you so sure they couldn't outlast Zenyatta? What in the world has Zenyatta done that proves to you empirically that she is just as fast, if not faster than Seattle Slew and Ruffian (again, your words).

[born2ride]

How do you not get this? She's a deep closer. Most great horses like Slew, Ruffian, etc., are not deep closers so they can record faster times because they go as fast as they can as long as they can. Since Zenyatta is a closer, she only runs fast late and therefore is going to record a final time that is relevant to the pace. This is just basic stuff. You are over emphasizing speed figs. I don't see how anyone cannot understand this. Perhaps because it's so rare for a great horse to be a deep closer. She was 17 lengths behind in the classic and won easily, at 10 furlongs, that race was much more impressive than any race Quality Rd ran, even though he has higher figures. I saw Ruffian run twice in person and she was the fastest horse I ever saw and probably the fastest horse that ever lived for 6 furlongs to a mile, but Zenyatta could beat her at 10 furlongs because most horses, even great ones, are slowing down in a 10 furlong race (except Secretariat, maybe). That's why Zenyatta wins, she is accelerating and still fresh while the rest of the horses are understandably slowing down, and she's obviously not even all out when she does it.

Having checked out Zenyatta's pp's in detail today, her final time is not always relevant to pace. Do the math on her 8.5f races to calculate her splits, I was surprised to see how fairly consistent they are. I'd not be surpised to find the same is true at her 9f races. AB '08 had a faster pace than the Milady '08 yet she ran a slower time in the AB. Go figure. And no she doesn't only run fast late, she put up some decent splits in the Lady's Secret.

Too funny to think Zenyatta could beat Ruffian at 10f. It'd not only not be close, but Ruffian would break her spirit.

[Charlie D]

AB '08 had a faster pace than the Milady '08 yet she ran a slower time in the AB. Go figure.





Deceleration of leaders will play a part in the first, it will be exaggerated which means Zen can waltz on by instead of having run fast to get on past..

In later slow pace, means horses are sprinting towards finish and Zen goes whoooshh.


See saw effect.

[Headbanger]

Having checked out Zenyatta's pp's in detail today, her final time is not always relevant to pace. Do the math on her 8.5f races to calculate her splits, I was surprised to see how fairly consistent they are. I'd not be surpised to find the same is true at her 9f races. AB '08 had a faster pace than the Milady '08 yet she ran a slower time in the AB. Go figure. And no she doesn't only run fast late, she put up some decent splits in the Lady's Secret.

Too funny to think Zenyatta could beat Ruffian at 10f. It'd not only not be close, but Ruffian would break her spirit.

Ruffian and Zenyatta don't even belong in the same sentence, heck, Zenyatta would have trouble running down Winning Colors at any distance who was a spectacularly talented filly in her own right.

[DeanT]

And no she doesn't only run fast late, she put up some decent splits in the Lady's Secret.

This is a key line in understanding her, in my opinion. She ran a strong figure that day (I think it was her best career fig, but that is only an opinion, because Beyer tells us she ran faster in the Classic), that we would expect each race from a grade 1 horse, and showed us she is an extremely talented horse. She was put into a position that day to race like an "S" horse, and not a deep closer. She is more than capable of running a strong figure in any race, if she is put in a position to stalk and pounce, like we see hundreds of times a week in our sport. In 17 of her 18 starts, she was not in that stalking position, she was passing an entire field (like the Breeders Cup), and looking at her final fig in those instances, is specious.

[KingChas]

Let's be honest,

She has had a lot of hand rides home in her career.
They have a tendency to obliquen the final times & speed figs.

Recent races, I just think she's old enough and smart enough,too just do enough.

She has it figured out. ;)

[Charlie D]

I just think she's old enough and smart enough,too just do enough


She is being asked to win the horse race, not race against a stopwatch. Just a shame she is not being asked against better opposition in other parts of country or World.

Maybe later eh!!

[KingChas]

Just a shame she is not being asked against better opposition in other parts of country or World.

Maybe later eh!!

Churchill Downs on Nov 06 2010

Bring it on!!

[Cratos]

How do you not get this? She's a deep closer. Most great horses like Slew, Ruffian, etc., are not deep closers so they can record faster times because they go as fast as they can as long as they can. Since Zenyatta is a closer, she only runs fast late and therefore is going to record a final time that is relevant to the pace. This is just basic stuff. You are over emphasizing speed figs. I don't see how anyone cannot understand this. Perhaps because it's so rare for a great horse to be a deep closer. She was 17 lengths behind in the classic and won easily, at 10 furlongs, that race was much more impressive than any race Quality Rd ran, even though he has higher figures. I saw Ruffian run twice in person and she was the fastest horse I ever saw and probably the fastest horse that ever lived for 6 furlongs to a mile, but Zenyatta could beat her at 10 furlongs because most horses, even great ones, are slowing down in a 10 furlong race (except Secretariat, maybe). That's why Zenyatta wins, she is accelerating and still fresh while the rest of the horses are understandably slowing down, and she's obviously not even all out when she does it.

Your explanation is absolutely correct because final time is a function of pace. This occurs in a horse race because distance is fixed and as a race progresses a “closer” running with respect to the pace of the race has less distance to accelerate.

However I disagree that Ruffian was the fastest horse between 6f and 1 mile; that honor in my opinion goes to the great Dr. Fager.

Also I am not saying that Ruffian would have beaten Zenyatta at a 1 ¼ mile distance, but I am saying that it would have been a close race. Remember Ruffian never lived to maturity; she was a big long striding 3yo filly when she met her demise in her match race against Foolish Pleasure and Ruffian won the CCA Oaks when it was run at 1 ½ miles in very respectable time.

[cj]

Of course a closer's final time is dependent on pace. However, I would argue Zenyatta has had several chances with nice pace setups to record fast final times and she hasn't done so.

[DeanT]

Of course a closer's final time is dependent on pace. However, I would argue Zenyatta has had several chances with nice pace setups to record fast final times and she hasn't done so.

I cant remember, but I hope you do: What did you give her in the lady's Secret in her 8th career start that born2ride mentioned. How were her late figs that day, and her overall fig that day?

[BluegrassProf]

Just a shame she is not being asked against better opposition in other parts of country or World.Churchill Downs on Nov 06 2010

Bring it on!!Rightio! 'Cause in any year's-worth of racing (and most especially in a test of true greatness), the Breeder's Cup is - as any decent myopic would tell us - all that matters.

Stellar. :ThmbUp:

[cj]

I cant remember, but I hope you do: What did you give her in the lady's Secret in her 8th career start that born2ride mentioned. How were her late figs that day, and her overall fig that day?

I have that as a 108 speed figure, one of her best. The pace was on the slow side, so overall it is her best race on my numbers. She used to be pretty consistent in the mid 100s, but with the Classic excepted when she had a very fast pace to run into her last 9 races have been 100 or lower.

I think some of that is the competition and some is the jockey not riding out to the wire. Still, she is not putting up all time great numbers even for females, and that includes the Classic. I consider that a great trip and she had a decent number, but nothing earth shattering.

[Cratos]

Of course a closer's final time is dependent on pace. However, I would argue Zenyatta has had several chances with nice pace setups to record fast final times and she hasn't done so.

Maybe she did or maybe she didn’t have that opportunity, but given the shape of a typical race running curve, this is a nontrivial calculation.

I don’t see Zenyatta as much as a very fast horse as she is a very classy horse. I don’t believe she has the natural speed of another great closer, Forego because Forego could get the 7f in 1:21 and change; I don’t see Zenyatta doing the same.

[Charlie D]

She comes late onto scene so she stops clock not long after passing what are moderate opposition, this is probably not really a race dynamic for putting up Fast figs.

[DeanT]

I have that as a 108 speed figure, one of her best. The pace was on the slow side, so overall it is her best race on my numbers. She used to be pretty consistent in the mid 100s, but with the Classic excepted when she had a very fast pace to run into her last 9 races have been 100 or lower.

I think some of that is the competition and some is the jockey not riding out to the wire. Still, she is not putting up all time great numbers even for females, and that includes the Classic. I consider that a great trip and she had a decent number, but nothing earth shattering.

Thanks.

That is where the rubber meets the road with this mare, imo. Was this race her best - might be. Was it her best because she was closer and did not have to run by a field in the 8 path? Was she at a bottom? Did she run a good number because she got an excellent trip? If it was a faster pace she stayed in contact with, and if you believe she runs to a target (like she showed she needs so often), does a faster pace and better competition ahead of her stretch her out, and she runs a huge number?

I believe she runs big in this race with a good horse or two to chase and a pace.

Others dont believe that.

Who's right?

The only way to settle it is to have her race horses that (on paper at least) are better than her, and has some pace, is in contact and has a target to run with/to. And she has not left home much at all, to even have that chance.

I think that is the crux of everything when we discuss this mare: She has not tried the best several times in her life, to see if what we are seeing is real, or Memorex.

This was a hell of a race for her, though, imo. She actually raced like a normal horse unlike any time in her career, and converted nicely, like a good grade 1 horse should. Being closer to the splits did her no harm at all late.

O3OnUmOaIhI

[PaceAdvantage]

The only way to settle it is to have her race horses that (on paper at least) are better than her, and has some pace, is in contact and has a target to run with/to. And she has not left home much at all, to even have that chance.

I think that is the crux of everything when we discuss this mare: She has not tried the best several times in her life, to see if what we are seeing is real, or Memorex.Exactly. It's amazing how these discussions twist and turn.

I ask Pandy just how he figures Zenyatta is as fast as Seattle Slew and Ruffian, and he runs right back and questions me as if I lack even the most rudimentary of handicapping knowledge.

On top of being completely frustrating, it's also a little bit insulting. And I wonder if the inability to explain away some of Zenyatta's most glaring deficiencies (other than, "it's different this time") is the reason behind these tactics.

Zenyatta reminds me of the stock market tech boom at the end of the 90s. You had all these companies with outrageous stock prices that never earned dime one in actual profits. Yet when people would question such insanity, they were told by supposed experts "it's different this time. Earnings don't matter."

That's the vibe I'm getting from some of Zenyatta's most ardent fans. Somehow, with her, "it's different this time." It doesn't matter the class of horses she is beating (often times, just barely)...it doesn't matter the rather pedestrian figures she is putting up (on both surfaces) for a supposed "best ever" horse (whether that be "best ever" female or one of the "best ever" period).

I have news for you...It's not different this time until actually proven otherwise...and the jury is still definitely out when it comes to that proof.

I would challenge anyone to name one TOP horse (and by that, I mean the BEST horse currently in training) that she has beaten over THAT horse's preferred surface.

Since she has only met THE BEST horses currently in training once (in the 2009 Breeders' Cup Classic), this is an easy task. There wasn't one horse in that race who was considered one of THE BEST horses in the country, that was also RUNNING ON THEIR PREFERRED SURFACE.

'nuff said.

[DeanT]

Sure, I agree with a lot of that. It's a perfect storm of opinion, for the perfect storm of modern racing.

If Cali only had two tracks synth and they left SA dirt, we'd know. If she was trained by another trainer, or owned by a factory stable, she would have long shipped all over and for at least a few times we'd have seen it.

But we have not.

The polarization on that is pretty stunning, but not surprising I guess. Steve Davidowitz - long a respected capper on this board and others - says he loves her and she is the best mare ever. Suddenly, with that opine, he is no longer a respected handicapper to some, he is a dummy. The same works the other way. People who do not think she can run a huge number and beat great horses are also considered idiots to some.

She kind of reminds me, with this perfect storm, like a hyped UK horse. We never seem to know how good the horse is, in terms of speed figs, or versatility to run on dirt or synth, when looking at him or her in terms of US racing. It is all opinion. And that opinion can be super-polarized. It degenerates to not debate, but an exercise in who can yell the loudest, or call the other person a dummy.

Maybe that is why I am fascinated by this debate so much - I am in between. I do not think she is the best horse ever or even the best mare ever, but to the best of my handicapping ability (no jokes please!) I think she is faster than she has shown, and is probably the best horse currently in training, if she runs her race.

[PaceAdvantage]

The polarization on that is pretty stunning, but not surprising I guess. Steve Davidowitz - long a respected capper on this board and others - says he loves her and she is the best mare ever. Suddenly, with that opine, he is no longer a respected handicapper to some, he is a dummy.This isn't true. I don't recall anyone on here saying such a silly thing...perhaps I missed those posts...I do not think she is the best horse ever or even the best mare ever, but to the best of my handicapping ability (no jokes please!) I think she is faster than she has shown, and is probably the best horse currently in training, if she runs her race.I have no doubts this could be true. I just haven't seen anything to allow me to come to that conclusion. And that's all it boils down to...

[DeanT]

This isn't true. I don't recall anyone on here saying such a silly thing...perhaps I missed those posts...I have no doubts this could be true. I just haven't seen anything to allow me to come to that conclusion. And that's all it boils down to...

Hyperbolic by me, so guilty as charged. However, on the Davidowitz thread there was some odd comments. Someone thought whomever posted it, it was a joke, because he could not be so out of it to say something like he did. Others thought that he was in the tank for synthetic tracks, and is not a good writer anymore, as the only way he could say such a thing.

This horse brings out this stuff, on both sides.

[wisconsin]

These boards just go back and forth, and then back and forth again. We all know what she needs to accomplish, but she only has to do it once, at the true classic distance, against the best horses in training. She does not have to run in any dirt prep, either. It's pretty clear to me that she is going to be pointed easily for the 19-0 mark and go for the dramatic storybook finish at Churchill and claim the coveted 20 win unbeaten mark against the best there is. She will be in a position to make history, and leave a true legacy that would not be forgotten. Until she proves it, and I think she will, there is no sense in these circular arguments.

[PaceAdvantage]

She will be in a position to make history, and leave a true legacy that would not be forgotten. Until she proves it, and I think she will, there is no sense in these circular arguments.I agree 100%. If she wins the BC Classic at Churchill against the kind of field that is expected, she will indeed make a believer out of me.

[bisket]

this article was on drf's web page today, and my thoughts came instantly to this discussion. with horses moving from surface to surface handicappers just aren't gonna get the amount of concrete information on a horses ability in the pps as many handicappers are accustomed to. you have to rely more heavily on what your able to see in replays. what your looking for is not so much the path a horse raced in etc., but looking to see if a horse is running comfortably and these type of things. speed figures, computer programming, and the data they can store, have been around so long that many handicappers have become so accustomed to not even taking any of this into consideration.

knowing the horses, and knowing what to look for as far as if a horse is comfortable running on a surface, and these type of things have always been a big part of my handicapping. i started handicapping prior to speed figs and computer data. programming and figs have only helped me to become better while using these other type of handicapping tools. i enjoyed this article as it discusses how data first became part of the handicapping process. this particular statement i think highlights what many handicappers i feel have discarded in recent times to their own detriment.

" He had played favorites, information, and rumor. In learning from his mistakes, he wrote, “I came to the conclusion that form, dashed strongly with knowledge of the personality of the horse, was the true guide.”

DASHED STRONGLY WITH KNOWLEDGE OF THE PERSONALITIY OF THE HORSE

here's the link. its about the man that invented past performances and started the form. i really enjoyed it...

http://drf.com/news/frank-h-brunell-father-form

[bisket]

Of course a closer's final time is dependent on pace. However, I would argue Zenyatta has had several chances with nice pace setups to record fast final times and she hasn't done so.
did she finish in front of the other horses in those races? i think many others have said this, but maybe it needs to be said again. she's not running for a speed figure. she's running to win the race. thats what floats this particular mare's boat...... winning!!! the best trait a horse can have in my opinion.

[PaceAdvantage]

did she finish in front of the other horses in those races? i think many others have said this, but maybe it needs to be said again. she's not running for a speed figure. she's running to win the race. thats what floats this particular mare's boat...... winning!!! the best trait a horse can have in my opinion.What horse is running for a speed figure?

[BluegrassProf]

I agree 100%. If she wins the BC Classic at Churchill against the kind of field that is expected, she will indeed make a believer out of me.I actually think there's a point to be made here.

On the question of ability: I think it is from this issue that part of the current debate springs - depending on your method of analysis (from very literal speed figs, etc. to performance-initiated presumption or whatever), you're either expecting a classic win by Zen in the BC, or a sound defeat by those she's likely to face (by at least one, I suppose). Personally - and this is contrary to what the vocal few think about me - I actually do think Zenyatta has the ability to squeeze out a win at Churchill. *gasp!* That's right: with respect to her ability, I'm (at least to a reasonable extent) "a believer." Now, I won't yet again get into why I think that this is the case, but suffice it to say that I think things might work in her favor at CD (other commentary from other threads). Now, that said - and here is where a second, grander disparity exists - I do not think that a win in Nov. will catapult Zenyatta into the mythical realms of hyperbole; in fact, while I gladly define her as a truly exceptional horse, given the reality of her career as it stands quite clearly, that's as far as I can go...for me, prompting to do so takes far more than what we've been given, and far more of what Zenyatta has deserved from the start.

That grander issue (at least for me) is the second question we're faced with, and that is Zenyatta's place in the pantheon of historic thoroughbreds of NA, or the issue of greatness. It is here that my opinion differs from many: to stake a place in my pantheon, a horse must race the best, in the best races/racecourses, in a relatively consistent manner over time (make no mistake, this isn't about always facing the best over and over and over and travelling for every damned race - no horse EVER does that - so don't turn it into that sorta thing; it's about an at least minimal attempt to face some legitimate competition, preferably at more than one historic track from coast to coast). A athlete must be repeatedly tested...this is the mark of greatness in sport: the ability to be tested to a level justified by one's ability, to face challenges [reasonably] outside your comfort zone, and to rise triumphantly to the challenge. Zenyatta, through the behavior and decisionmaking of her connections, has denied for me her place on the mantle of greatness in American racing. And please, refrain from the "but that's not HER fault!" respose - well, of course it's not, but fault is absolutely irrelevant.

What if Zen had been tested more regularly? What if she would've entered a dirt classic with a decent runner or two? What if she had travelled, at least a little? These questions are typically met with, "well, they wanted the big ol' BC." And that's a TERRIBLE answer - it (absurdly) legitimizes the poor sport of those cupcakey campaigns that denied all of us something far more dramatic, and robbed a nation of fans from seeing a rising star over multiple years. Can you imagine how Zenyatta would look if she had undertaken a more substantive career? Good gravy, it could've been something absolutely astounding. But it wasn't, and believe it or not, that matters.

It matters because it represents a substantive record; it matters because her performances to date are based inherently on the races she's run previously - change even one, and it alters its entire face. It matters because greatness has meaning, and I for one should hope that it stays that way. Saying, "well, she totally coulda won eeeeeeverything!" is not a legitimate response; it's not reality. Besides, it's probably not true - a more substantive campaign may have included a defeat or two, fluke or not - but as if it would've mattered, at least if her greatness is all that so many feel it is...but think of it: what if all of those what-ifs weren't what-ifs? And what if - just what if - Zenyatta had risen to the challenge, dominating consistently with all the peerless athleticism and grace we so long to see? You know what that'd be?

Greatness.

At the end of the day, while I have few doubts about Zen's ability, her place among the greats of TB racing is far from confirmed. With respect to her greatness, I'm no "believer."

As I've said before (and will continue to say), a win in the BC will give us an exciting race to remember and a win by a horse to remember. But while it might largely answer the question of ability on dirt, it absolutely doesn't change one itoa what we've been given, and it certainly confirms no place in the pantheon. In my house at least, those are reserved for something truly extraordinary.

[Relwob Owner]

What if Zen had been tested more regularly? What if she would've entered a dirt classic with a decent runner or two? What if she had travelled, at least a little? These questions are typically met with, "well, they wanted the big ol' BC." And that's a TERRIBLE answer - it (absurdly) legitimizes the poor sport of those cupcakey campaigns that denied all of us something far more dramatic, and robbed a nation of fans from seeing a rising star over multiple years. Can you imagine how Zenyatta would look if she had undertaken a more substantive career? Good gravy, it could've been something absolutely astounding. But it wasn't, and believe it or not, that matters.That is one of the best paragraphs I have read on here in a while...it addresses so many of the things that Zenyatta supporters seem to ignore and I would love to hear some of her supporters answer it and while doing so, not mention Rachel Alexandra anywhere in their response....

[DeanT]

That is one of the best paragraphs I have read on here in a while...it addresses so many of the things that Zenyatta supporters seem to ignore and I would love to hear some of her supporters answer it and while doing so, not mention Rachel Alexandra anywhere in their response....

That has been addressed in my and your discussions Relwob. We agree for the most part on it. i.e. if she is in Pletchers barn we are not having this discussion. If she is in that type barn, she is started sometime early or mid year as a 3YO (they knew she had talent). She is pointed to some stakes and she is raced. We both agree that she would not be here as a 6YO. But we would have seen her race everywhere.

The barn had a plan. She was a growthy filly and they did not compromise her early, and they have not chased males all over with her. She has her routine and that's what she does.

It's also why you and me did not jump in on the Rachel topic, busting Jackson's cajones for not racing her tougher this year. Jackson has a filly he is not sure is 100%, does not want to take on boys right now, and wants to race in the Classic. That is the same as Z's group is doing (racing against females until the Classic, so they tell us). It's the way it is. It does not mean it is right or wrong, but that's the way it is.

They don't want to kink this mare, because she is the only really good horse they have. They do not throw her to the wolves. I am ok with that. If I had a good horse like that I would not do too much different. And I would not care one bit if people are writing about it in the press.

PS: Forgive me for mentioning Rachel :)

[Tom]

That is one of the best paragraphs I have read on here in a while...it addresses so many of the things that Zenyatta supporters seem to ignore and I would love to hear some of her supporters answer it and while doing so, not mention Rachel Alexandra anywhere in their response....

Seems to me the RA crowd is the one obsessesed.
For whatever reasons we like Z, you guys have been unable to stop dwelling on her. I ignore nothing - her career is what it is. If you don't like it, don't bother watching her race. Simple.

[PaceAdvantage]

Seems to me the RA crowd is the one obsessesed.
For whatever reasons we like Z, you guys have been unable to stop dwelling on her. I ignore nothing - her career is what it is. If you don't like it, don't bother watching her race. Simple.If "liking" were the only issue, there would be nothing to write about. We all like Zenyatta. What's not to like? She's a win machine and a ham to boot before and after the race. A real show stopper who has a personality rarely if ever seen before on the racetrack.

No arguments so far...from anyone...

You know that's not what is driving this debate Tom...a simple like or dislike. Nobody dislikes Zenyatta.

[thaskalos]

If "liking" were the only issue, there would be nothing to write about. We all like Zenyatta. What's not to like? She's a win machine and a ham to boot before and after the race. A real show stopper who has a personality rarely if ever seen before on the racetrack.

No arguments so far...from anyone...

You know that's not what is driving this debate Tom...a simple like or dislike. Nobody dislikes Zenyatta.What is it that drives this debate then?

The few lunatics that put Zenyatta at the same level as Secretariat and Spectacular Bid?

[andymays]

If "liking" were the only issue, there would be nothing to write about. We all like Zenyatta. What's not to like? She's a win machine and a ham to boot before and after the race. A real show stopper who has a personality rarely if ever seen before on the racetrack.

No arguments so far...from anyone...

You know that's not what is driving this debate Tom...a simple like or dislike. Nobody dislikes Zenyatta .

Why do I get the feeling you're gonna have to say that a few hundred more times.

[cj]

What is it that drives this debate then?

The few lunatics that put Zenyatta at the same level as Secretariat and Spectacular Bid?

There are more than a few...many more.

[chickenhead]

A lot of people really like Zenyatta. She's a very neat horse.

A subset of those people think she's such a neat horse that they overstate how great she really is (or has to this point proven herself to be, lets say). And they feel the need to bring up how overstatedly great she is, every time she gets brought up.

A different subset of other people have any good feeling somewhat, or completely overwhelmed by their dislike for her connections, her campaign, the surfaces she runs on, the horses she runs against, and probably other things I don't remember. Which they feel the need to bring them up, every time she gets brought up.

Some of us would rather just really like Zenyatta. She's a very neat horse.

[pandy]

Note to pace advantage, I apologize if I sounded condescending, I respect everyone's opinions and the truth is there is no way to know which horses are greater than the other. Regardless of what anyone says or thinks, Zenyatta's place in history is sealed and she will be regarded as one of the greatest horses of all time by pundits and historians.

[Charlie D]

she will be regarded as one of the greatest horses of all time by pundits and historians.



Why???

[speed]

Note to pace advantage, I apologize if I sounded condescending, I respect everyone's opinions and the truth is there is no way to know which horses are greater than the other. Regardless of what anyone says or thinks, Zenyatta's place in history is sealed and she will be regarded as one of the greatest horses of all time by pundits and historians.

Zenyatta does things i have never seen another horse do. But to be considered an all time great shouldn't you face the best there is, or the best of your sex on a regular basis. How about even the best at your home track.

I will always say she had the ability to be 1 of the best but never had enough chances to prove it.

[Charlie D]

But to be considered an all time great shouldn't you face the best there is,





I would say yes.


Anyone with any understanding of horse racing knows this has not occured.


Edited to add.


The same scenario applies to other horses in training too.

[Charlie D]

You could also apply the "not faced the best there is" to horses no longer in training too. I believe.


So how can you determine which is or is not the "greatest of all time".

[Tom]

Why do I get the feeling you're gonna have to say that a few hundred more times. You could tie it with nobody like synthetics and have a daily double! :rolleyes:

[Tom]

What is it that drives this debate then?

The few lunatics that put Zenyatta at the same level as Secretariat and Spectacular Bid?

That is nuts - no matter what she does from here on out, she will NOT be the greatest ever, or maybe even the best FM ever. She might be the most memorable, though. For my money, if she goes to CD and loses, it diminished not a bit in MHO.

[PaceAdvantage]

For my money, if she goes to CD and loses, it diminished not a bit in MHO.I agree...it wouldn't diminish what she has accomplished, and in fact, a respectable finish would only enhance her reputation in my opinion...I certainly won't be on here knocking her if she ends up 2nd or 3rd or anywhere close in this year's BC Classic...but I bet you there are plenty of folks who read this board who would think that I would...that's how sorry and PERSONAL this whole debate has become at times...

And a win would launch her into the stratosphere....

[InsideThePylons-MW]

And a win would launch her into the stratosphere....

Unless the field comes up weak, they go a very slow pace and she only earns a 97 Beyer on her victory. :)

[PaceAdvantage]

Unless the field comes up weak, they go a very slow pace and she only earns a 97 Beyer on her victory. :)Not bloody likely...

[FenceBored]

Not bloody likely...

Yeah, everybody knows that the Beyer folks rig the numbers for races like the Ky Derby and Classic so they're never under 100 (110 for the Classic).

JUST KIDDING.

[letswastemoney]

I predict a 115-120 beyer for whoever wins the Classic

[JustRalph]

I gotta say, I am not sure we have seen the bottom on Zenyatta yet?

I think she was all out to win the Classic....but I would really like to see her run closer up a couple times and see if she can keep going. This is one of the reasons I hate what the connections have done with her. In not experimenting a little and moving around to take on the best, we get questions like this. A dis-service to her legacy (whatever it will be) if you ask me. There is no shame in losing a couple.