pletcher/velasquez

[sligg]

It's apparent that this trainer/jockey is winning at a torrid pace. The question is how can you make money betting this combo?

From the start of the meet (July 23) to August 18 I have tabulated the results:

Bets: 83
Wins: 30
W%: 36.1
ROI: 28.9%

Not bad betting every Pletcher entry.

To improve the numbers bet every entry that goes off as the post favorite with Velasquez as the jockey:

Bets: 38
Wins: 22
W%: 57.9
ROI: 48.9%

There are further enhancements that can increase the numbers.

There is no handicapping involved. Either this trainer is using the juice or he knows how to place his horses. There were no profits on the place and show slots.

A similar study using Bailey and various trainers showed no profits.

Comments please.

[WINMANWIN]

I have been picking my spots with Pletcher. I have been fortunate to catch him at times, and been burnt when I excluded
Him. He was running sometimes 4 to 6 a day, and generally
has at least 2 or more the whole meet on most cards. It's like
most days at the track, When trainers Run multiple steeds on the same card, I pay attention to there charges that day. Many times
Pletecher steeds, figure in many races, and the Capping becomes difficult, But if you can toss him and others, and Cap Right, At times, Thats when we can make Money. After all, we cant bet them All :eek:Or maybe, According to the stats,I should have been on Pletcher every race. :confused:

[hurrikane]

I like Pletcher and follow him and his jockeys daily.

But I would'nt throw a lot of money at him on a whim..

last 10 days with Val

6/22 42.50 .95 ROI and that's with an 18.00 winner skewing the numbers.


Just saying to be careful...past results are not an indication of future perfomance. :D

[WINMANWIN]

Originally posted by hurrikane@HTR
I like Pletcher and follow him and his jockeys daily.

But I would'nt throw a lot of money at him on a whim..

last 10 days with Val

6/22 42.50 .95 ROI and that's with an 18.00 winner skewing the numbers.


Just saying to be careful...past results are not an indication of future perfomance. :D

I agree Kane, And that $18.00 bucko Winner was a DQ that made me a Happy Capper that day. BTW, that last sentence you wrote,
Is in Every Prospectus, and does have Merit....:(

[Observer]

Originally posted by sligg
It's apparent that this trainer/jockey is winning at a torrid pace. ... To improve the numbers bet every entry that goes off as the post favorite with Velasquez as the jockey:

Comments please.

I'm sure it's understood .. but please make sure you are betting John Velazquez .. Velazquez with a Z, as opposed to Velasquez with an s .. which would be Cornelio Velasquez.

[sligg]

Pletcher has never used Valasquez.

Betting Pletcher's entries that were not the post time favorite:

Bets: 45
Wins: 8
W%: 17.8
ROI: 12.1%

So betting Pletcher, favorites, non-favorites; or just betting every entry-there is a profit. That is impressive.

The problem with data bases and statistics is they are compiled after the fact and there's no assurance the numbers will hold up.

After the Saratoga meet will Pletchers numbers carry over to Belmont? No one wins forever. Hot trainers come and go and it's difficult to predict who the next hot trainer will be before the facts. Like the stock market, horse racing fact: Past results are not indicative of future results.

All this research is flawed from the outset-what a waste of time.

Another angle I'm researching: Bet the highest weighted horse who has the best last race Beyer number. Limited number of plays but so far at Saratoga the ROI is about 40%.

Angles, angles, angles. Isn't horse racing wonderful. I could write a doctoral thesis on angles that have died.

[hurrikane]

Sligg,

not sure why you think it is worthless.
not sure why you think Pletcher has never used Valazques

last year at the Spa with Valaz( he was his go to guy with only 10 other race run by other jockies..you guess the ROI)

15/67 $150 1.11 ROI.

you might think he aims for the spa every year. A lot of top trns do..it's their time to show off their wares and explain all those fees. Lots of owners schmooosing and throwing money around.

[andicap]

Originally posted by hurrikane@HTR
Sligg,

not sure why you think it is worthless.
not sure why you think Pletcher has never used Valazques


Maybe he plugged VALASQUEZ into his DB and came up empty.
Its Velasquez.

:D :D :D :D

I know its an honest typo but the guy does deserve to have his name spelled right.

[hurrikane]

could also be a costly typo.

allways check your results gentlemen(and ladies)

we are, afterall, human. (well, most of us :D )