Chris Longshot
08-07-2010, 01:01 AM
RACE 1(MNRJUVNILE)
#2 SERVICE ACT-after maiden win on dirt, horse seemed to spin his wheels on the turf, I'll throw out the turf effort, seems to fit here, like the bullet work as well.
#3 ROAR AS THE WYNND- two decent efforts on turf but a have a sneaky suspicion this one might prefer dirt, Pease/Jolley always sneaky with these type of transfers, Im expecting speed from this charge and I think can suprise at long odds and be useful underneathe.
#6 CONGO- Pletcher charge broke maiden in last at Delaware, should be the chalk and figures to move foward just hope Pletcher's reputation doesn't drive the odds to to low.
#8 UNLEASH THE HUMOR- exits win at Penn National, which did turn out to be key, did drift in the stretch hardly encouraging and has been off a while but I think this horse could go off as a slight overlay due to the fact it was Penn National and the layup, could land in the exotics.
RACE 2(WVCHAIRMANSCUP)
#7 LOVE'S STRONG HEART-CT runner for red hot conditioner was wide in last, gets major upgrade to Joel Rosario, getta outta here, even if he doesnt make the trip, will be very formidable.
#10 JU JITSU JAX-Disapointed his public as chalk at Suffolk, horse has a style that will fit here outside and off the speeds, think he will benefit most from cutback, should be a player late.
#1 BLIND RIVER FOX-Bennet charge a shell of his former self over his Tampa form but should appreciate the change to dirt, Ill treat him as a Tampa shipper, the carpet at MNR should be to his liking, might have a slight conditioning edge, odds will be decent, dont overlook.
#3 ROCK TO BOP-Speedball ships in from CT, will be in duel early with Deadly Dealer, and has been known to spit it up as of late, but for some reason can see this horse hanging around, maybe if the one of the speeds break bad, reaching but useful underneathe nonetoless.
RACE 3(WVSECTRYST)
#5 SOUTHERN YANKEE-Inirio entry 3rd in the disapointing Ohio Valley won by another in here at 47-1, but does get his hometown rider Saez for this and was wide in last, odds should be good, look for dramatic improvement from this charge.
#10 DOWN TOWN ALLEN- Horse is a win machine what can you say, only concern would be the rider change why no McGowan, we get Petty instead but considering the speed and being the last to load this firecracker should explode out of the gate.
#3 OUR KHRYSTY- Beattie charge of MNR'S Fabulous Strike fame, return here with another runner who closed strongly in last at Penn National, 3rd start off the layoff, sharp 5f work, comes closing late.
#8 SIMPLIFY- has been less than impressive in numerous stake attempts, 3rd off the layoff and Assmussen horses do well here, just expect a better effort.
RACE 4(MNRJUVFIL)
#5 KNOCK OUT PRINCESS- Was green and closed strongly as chalk, like the bullet work at Keeneland, really like this horse 2nd out, very intriguing at nice odds.
#4 SURMOUNT- I know LOCK OF THE DAY right??? hoping a few speeds mainly the #1 hook up early on the front end with this one and set it up for my top pick but yes hard to make a logical stand against, obviously reaching but not taking 3/5. And remember folks this is the mountain, strange things happen here regulary.
#6 FASTATION- exits stakes races at LS, horse has shown consistency in top 2 spots in all career starts but horse has been known to find trouble might be dubious at too short a price, a factor nonetheless.
#7 MAGNIFICENT ME- impressive maiden winner at CD and was claimed, Michael low profile but is very capable I can assure you, see him landing for a minor piece.
RACE 5(WVPRESDNTS)
#7 ROMACACA- What can you say, the logical chalk, has a win over the turf course, will be tough to beat.
#10 MIMI'S SPECIAL SIX- failed as chalk in last, but has beem wide in last few efforts, #10 post is tough but with Parker aboard hoping that will be nuetralized somewhat, expecting a big effort from this charge but will have to step it up obviously.
#1 ZORI'S EYES- owns 2 turf wins, exits disapointing effort in the Firecracker, looking for this one to give a better effort for trainer Eric Reed but will have to step it up to compete with my top pick.
#3 KISS MINE- on a two race win streak himself, gets Albarado and looks formidable, likely second chalk.
RACE 6(HARNLTMEM)
#5 JOHN'S BURGER- Back in peak form and always seems to run to the level of his competition for the Ruberto barn, I am expecting another big effort from this charge.
#3 NATIVE RULER- likely chalk comes off two very impressive wins and is in solid form, stalking style fits well here, Theriot up which is key because he was here last year and knows the track, will be prevelant late obviously.
#9 DON'T DEFY ME- Sipp charge pulled off the upset at PID, gets confident class raise off solid effort and might be better on dirt, not sure but worth a shot at long odds.
#8 CAPTAIN CHEROKEE-horse 3 out of 8 lifetime, won last, was laid up for 48 days but horse has work steadily for the return and always have to respect Assmussen, wouldnt be a suprise.
RACE 7(WVAGOVNRS)
#3 DEMARCATION- McGhee charge overmatched in a G1 after solid win but still liked the confident raise, gets Rosario for this but hasn't raced for 56 days, but does show steady works I'll assume all systems go.
#4 ALMA D'ORO- unlucky shipper as encountered trouble as of late, 2nd off the layoff, Pletcher/Albarado strong in tandem, look for this one in the mix late.
#2 SHADOWBDANCING- Gore horse is well traveled and seems to fire most times just wondering when it will take its toll o this horse, been resembling a stalker as of late despite wins just wondering if this horse might be due for a stinker and at a short price, I want no doubts.
#7 Z HUMOR- failed as chalk in last, lots of break lines hardly encouraging, but do think the horse can turn it around more due to the connections who seem to fire so well at the Mountain so certainly wouldnt be suprised.
RACE 8(WVDERBY)
#6 GUNFIGHTER- Winner of 3 in a row exits a key race but will be downgraded due to statebred competiton, also Gomez choosing not to make the trip a negative but Pennington is very capable and has won on this charge at Philly. Anthony Dutrow enjoying breakout season and I believes has the keys to this one, scores at a price.
#5 EXHI- Pletcher charge goes for 4 in a row but the million dollar question is?? Is he just a synthetic horse??? Last try on dirt would have been respectable losing to the classy Odyseus, however he lost by 15 lengths, so this one is hard to read but have to think Pletcher wouldn't bring this one here if he didnt think dirt would suit this horse just fine, Ill expect a similar solid effort.
#2 THISKYHASNOLIMIT- 2nd to Concord Point in last, goes 3rd off the layoff, if this one can break clean, look for this one to make his prescence felt and possibly turn the tables on his opponent in the Iowa Derby, who beat him handily.
#3 SKIPSHOT- Exits solid victory at HOL in last 3rd off the layoff could be more to come for this animal, Rosario up encouraging but another horse where the dirt track is in question, otherwise a formidable foe.
On a side note was pondering, If some of the chalks (#3/#5/#7) regress on the dirt, which is possible, lets be honest, will say this despite CONCORD's romp on dirt at Prm, the WV DERBY could be very big balloons, just imagine a scenario where the #8 SHOOKSTOWN ROAD and TOH's GREY CAT are involved late, just a thought, I could be wrong.
RACE 9(WVSPEAKRCP)
#1 I AM KING- exits win on turf after disapointing finish in Waterford Park handicap, other than that effort, horse has been consistent and as mentioned earlier, Ruberto horses seem to rise to the occassion, Im looking for another big effort with Parker up.
#8 PICKAPOCKET- ironically charge has won 2 off the turf races, unlikely here but horse has competitive turf efforts on form but for this spot I'll place him second, which he has an affinity to do.
#5 TIMELESS FASHION- exits easy score in last, 4/7 on turf, owns a win over the turf course, Lopez stays, nothing not to like, watch tote though.
#7 HE'S LONG GONE- ran credibly off the claim for Paul Snatcko, got on track too late in last, can see this one come running late, especially if a pace collapse insues. Could land in the gimmicks at a very huge price.
GL Mountaineer players, hope this helps either way, with winners or eliminations LOL, feel free to offer your own insights on West Virginia Derby Day, I can surely use the help!!!! :D
#2 SERVICE ACT-after maiden win on dirt, horse seemed to spin his wheels on the turf, I'll throw out the turf effort, seems to fit here, like the bullet work as well.
#3 ROAR AS THE WYNND- two decent efforts on turf but a have a sneaky suspicion this one might prefer dirt, Pease/Jolley always sneaky with these type of transfers, Im expecting speed from this charge and I think can suprise at long odds and be useful underneathe.
#6 CONGO- Pletcher charge broke maiden in last at Delaware, should be the chalk and figures to move foward just hope Pletcher's reputation doesn't drive the odds to to low.
#8 UNLEASH THE HUMOR- exits win at Penn National, which did turn out to be key, did drift in the stretch hardly encouraging and has been off a while but I think this horse could go off as a slight overlay due to the fact it was Penn National and the layup, could land in the exotics.
RACE 2(WVCHAIRMANSCUP)
#7 LOVE'S STRONG HEART-CT runner for red hot conditioner was wide in last, gets major upgrade to Joel Rosario, getta outta here, even if he doesnt make the trip, will be very formidable.
#10 JU JITSU JAX-Disapointed his public as chalk at Suffolk, horse has a style that will fit here outside and off the speeds, think he will benefit most from cutback, should be a player late.
#1 BLIND RIVER FOX-Bennet charge a shell of his former self over his Tampa form but should appreciate the change to dirt, Ill treat him as a Tampa shipper, the carpet at MNR should be to his liking, might have a slight conditioning edge, odds will be decent, dont overlook.
#3 ROCK TO BOP-Speedball ships in from CT, will be in duel early with Deadly Dealer, and has been known to spit it up as of late, but for some reason can see this horse hanging around, maybe if the one of the speeds break bad, reaching but useful underneathe nonetoless.
RACE 3(WVSECTRYST)
#5 SOUTHERN YANKEE-Inirio entry 3rd in the disapointing Ohio Valley won by another in here at 47-1, but does get his hometown rider Saez for this and was wide in last, odds should be good, look for dramatic improvement from this charge.
#10 DOWN TOWN ALLEN- Horse is a win machine what can you say, only concern would be the rider change why no McGowan, we get Petty instead but considering the speed and being the last to load this firecracker should explode out of the gate.
#3 OUR KHRYSTY- Beattie charge of MNR'S Fabulous Strike fame, return here with another runner who closed strongly in last at Penn National, 3rd start off the layoff, sharp 5f work, comes closing late.
#8 SIMPLIFY- has been less than impressive in numerous stake attempts, 3rd off the layoff and Assmussen horses do well here, just expect a better effort.
RACE 4(MNRJUVFIL)
#5 KNOCK OUT PRINCESS- Was green and closed strongly as chalk, like the bullet work at Keeneland, really like this horse 2nd out, very intriguing at nice odds.
#4 SURMOUNT- I know LOCK OF THE DAY right??? hoping a few speeds mainly the #1 hook up early on the front end with this one and set it up for my top pick but yes hard to make a logical stand against, obviously reaching but not taking 3/5. And remember folks this is the mountain, strange things happen here regulary.
#6 FASTATION- exits stakes races at LS, horse has shown consistency in top 2 spots in all career starts but horse has been known to find trouble might be dubious at too short a price, a factor nonetheless.
#7 MAGNIFICENT ME- impressive maiden winner at CD and was claimed, Michael low profile but is very capable I can assure you, see him landing for a minor piece.
RACE 5(WVPRESDNTS)
#7 ROMACACA- What can you say, the logical chalk, has a win over the turf course, will be tough to beat.
#10 MIMI'S SPECIAL SIX- failed as chalk in last, but has beem wide in last few efforts, #10 post is tough but with Parker aboard hoping that will be nuetralized somewhat, expecting a big effort from this charge but will have to step it up obviously.
#1 ZORI'S EYES- owns 2 turf wins, exits disapointing effort in the Firecracker, looking for this one to give a better effort for trainer Eric Reed but will have to step it up to compete with my top pick.
#3 KISS MINE- on a two race win streak himself, gets Albarado and looks formidable, likely second chalk.
RACE 6(HARNLTMEM)
#5 JOHN'S BURGER- Back in peak form and always seems to run to the level of his competition for the Ruberto barn, I am expecting another big effort from this charge.
#3 NATIVE RULER- likely chalk comes off two very impressive wins and is in solid form, stalking style fits well here, Theriot up which is key because he was here last year and knows the track, will be prevelant late obviously.
#9 DON'T DEFY ME- Sipp charge pulled off the upset at PID, gets confident class raise off solid effort and might be better on dirt, not sure but worth a shot at long odds.
#8 CAPTAIN CHEROKEE-horse 3 out of 8 lifetime, won last, was laid up for 48 days but horse has work steadily for the return and always have to respect Assmussen, wouldnt be a suprise.
RACE 7(WVAGOVNRS)
#3 DEMARCATION- McGhee charge overmatched in a G1 after solid win but still liked the confident raise, gets Rosario for this but hasn't raced for 56 days, but does show steady works I'll assume all systems go.
#4 ALMA D'ORO- unlucky shipper as encountered trouble as of late, 2nd off the layoff, Pletcher/Albarado strong in tandem, look for this one in the mix late.
#2 SHADOWBDANCING- Gore horse is well traveled and seems to fire most times just wondering when it will take its toll o this horse, been resembling a stalker as of late despite wins just wondering if this horse might be due for a stinker and at a short price, I want no doubts.
#7 Z HUMOR- failed as chalk in last, lots of break lines hardly encouraging, but do think the horse can turn it around more due to the connections who seem to fire so well at the Mountain so certainly wouldnt be suprised.
RACE 8(WVDERBY)
#6 GUNFIGHTER- Winner of 3 in a row exits a key race but will be downgraded due to statebred competiton, also Gomez choosing not to make the trip a negative but Pennington is very capable and has won on this charge at Philly. Anthony Dutrow enjoying breakout season and I believes has the keys to this one, scores at a price.
#5 EXHI- Pletcher charge goes for 4 in a row but the million dollar question is?? Is he just a synthetic horse??? Last try on dirt would have been respectable losing to the classy Odyseus, however he lost by 15 lengths, so this one is hard to read but have to think Pletcher wouldn't bring this one here if he didnt think dirt would suit this horse just fine, Ill expect a similar solid effort.
#2 THISKYHASNOLIMIT- 2nd to Concord Point in last, goes 3rd off the layoff, if this one can break clean, look for this one to make his prescence felt and possibly turn the tables on his opponent in the Iowa Derby, who beat him handily.
#3 SKIPSHOT- Exits solid victory at HOL in last 3rd off the layoff could be more to come for this animal, Rosario up encouraging but another horse where the dirt track is in question, otherwise a formidable foe.
On a side note was pondering, If some of the chalks (#3/#5/#7) regress on the dirt, which is possible, lets be honest, will say this despite CONCORD's romp on dirt at Prm, the WV DERBY could be very big balloons, just imagine a scenario where the #8 SHOOKSTOWN ROAD and TOH's GREY CAT are involved late, just a thought, I could be wrong.
RACE 9(WVSPEAKRCP)
#1 I AM KING- exits win on turf after disapointing finish in Waterford Park handicap, other than that effort, horse has been consistent and as mentioned earlier, Ruberto horses seem to rise to the occassion, Im looking for another big effort with Parker up.
#8 PICKAPOCKET- ironically charge has won 2 off the turf races, unlikely here but horse has competitive turf efforts on form but for this spot I'll place him second, which he has an affinity to do.
#5 TIMELESS FASHION- exits easy score in last, 4/7 on turf, owns a win over the turf course, Lopez stays, nothing not to like, watch tote though.
#7 HE'S LONG GONE- ran credibly off the claim for Paul Snatcko, got on track too late in last, can see this one come running late, especially if a pace collapse insues. Could land in the gimmicks at a very huge price.
GL Mountaineer players, hope this helps either way, with winners or eliminations LOL, feel free to offer your own insights on West Virginia Derby Day, I can surely use the help!!!! :D