Handicapping Process

[tapout]

I have lost any methods in finding contenders.Can anyone help with a list of starting factors ?

[eastie]

a good place to start would be to throw out whomever Only 11 likes :)

[Robert Goren]

To steal a line from Pace. "This is going to get good"

[andymays]

The condensed version is:

Start by reading the PP's from the bottom up starting with workouts since raced.

Then video replays.

Then relevant workout reports.

Then visual inspection in the post parade.

Then the odds.

Then if the race is on Polytrack throw everyone out that you like and bet on another horse! ;)

[markgoldie]

Forget all methods of determining contenders. It's all incorporated in the line. The only way to find success is to handicap the handicappers. Find out where they make the occasional mistake and exploit it.

Another way of putting this is to exploit angles. Gather as many useful ones as you can and stash them in your arsenal. Then, when you look at a race, view it from the potential angle/value perspective. If there's nothing there, PASS the race. And remember- even if you have spotted a viable angle horse, make sure you get the proper odds. Many times a horse that sports a favorite angle will be fairly priced and therefore, there is no mistake in odds.

[teddy]

I am running at 5% profit on my wagers, with an 9% rebate.

Usually I start with smaller fields with a fav that is under even money. I assess him and decide if the fav is legit, if he is not then I bet the other contenders to win and pitch him or put him second in the exacta. My other bet is to show on the horse I like most to hit the board. If i dont like the fav then its a great bet because I often get $3 to $4 on my show horse when he runs out. I am actually a 4% loser on my bets before rebates. That is why I know my method is solid and wont get copied. Thats my best angle yet. Really I incorporate alot of pace analysis to see if my show horse will get a good run at them. He must be a stalker also or close closer. No deep closers and no post position 1 horses ever.

[dansan]

eeni meeni mini moe works some :lol: times

[Overlay]

Rather than arriving at contenders by completely throwing out any horse that doesn't survive a preliminary set of elimination criteria, I prefer to develop a betting line for the full field using probabilities associated with all my factors (such as distance, surface, speed, pace, class, and condition) in order to determine the fair-odds level that makes each horse an acceptable risk.

If I had to identify any particular subgroup as "contenders", it would be those with fair odds that were lower than their random probability of winning based on the field size of the race (lower than 6-1 in a seven-horse field, 7-1 in an eight-horse field, etc.).

[kenwoodall2]

I find contenders in many ways, but the only relevent ones are overlays. You have to keep watching the tote to determine win % probability then which ones are overlays.

[Red God]

I have lost any methods in finding contenders.Can anyone help with a list of starting factors ?

My personal first step:
Scratch out every horse that has lost in any type of claiming race. This sort of thing can eliminate entire fields. So be it. Goodbye to the losers. Then I start handicapping the race if there are any leftovers after the carnage. If nothing is left, I move on to the next race.

[Stillriledup]

The condensed version is:

Start by reading the PP's from the bottom up starting with workouts since raced.

Then video replays.

Then relevant workout reports.

Then visual inspection in the post parade.

Then the odds.

Then if the race is on Polytrack throw everyone out that you like and bet on another horse! ;)


This is a fantastic post. I couldn't agree more. Handicapping Del Mar has nothing to do with actual handicapping. You can watch a ton of videotape, you can spot horses who are full of run with trouble and you can spot horses who died in the stretch with perfect trips and none of that matters, because the horses that are good 'bet againsts' seem to be winning and the horses you want to follow are not. DMR has done well creating carryovers, they have rendered the conventional handicapping process moot, all the stuff that you have learned about handicapping doesnt' mean anything.

[JustRalph]

I have lost any methods in finding contenders.Can anyone help with a list of starting factors ?

why do I think this is a joke?

[Pace Cap'n]

why do I think this is a joke?

You mean you've never lost your methods?

[Robert Goren]

You mean you've never lost your methods?No, but I have lost my way several times. The last time was with a recently divorced lady. I think she was a natural red head, but my memory is blurred by consuming too many Colorado bulldogs with her.

[JustRalph]

You mean you've never lost your methods?

ummmm...........define what the hell that means first ?

if you mean have I ever completely lost how to handicap a horse race ....then no I haven't. I have had some bad streaks, but kept on pluggin and adjusting.

I just think the question asked to start the thread is a little "wide open" and vague your honor .............

[Dave Schwartz]

What is a "Colorado bulldog?"

[thaskalos]

I have lost any methods in finding contenders.Can anyone help with a list of starting factors ?Eliminate all horses which have neither - finished 1st or 2nd...or within 5 lengths of the winner...nor were within 2.5 lengths of the leader at the SECOND call...in either of their last two races - assuming that the class and the distances are the same as today's.

If the horse is DROPPING in class today...you may go to the third-race-back...in order to "qualify" the horse.

Of the remaining horses...note the Beyer figures of their last three races - and circle the highest one. The three highest figures are your top 3 contenders in the race.

[Pace Cap'n]

ummmm...........define what the hell that means first ?


Sorry, just another lame attempt at humor on the internets.

[ManeMediaMogul]

...Handicapping Del Mar has nothing to do with actual handicapping. You can watch a ton of videotape, you can spot horses who are full of run with trouble and you can spot horses who died in the stretch with perfect trips and none of that matters, because the horses that are good 'bet againsts' seem to be winning and the horses you want to follow are not. DMR has done well creating carryovers, they have rendered the conventional handicapping process moot, all the stuff that you have learned about handicapping doesnt' mean anything.

This is a total bunch of crap.

My daughter has played the Pick Six at Del Mar on three different carryover days this meeting. Using my selections as a guide, she has had 5 winners twice and 4 once.

I handicap the same way whether I am at Garrison Savannah in Barbados or Belmont Park in New York...River Downs in Ohio or Keeneland in Kentucky.

[wes]

What is a "Colorado bulldog?"


A kool blue with balls!!!!

wes

[Robert Goren]

What is a "Colorado bulldog?"

1 shot vodka (http://www.drinksmixer.com/desc28.html)
1 shot Kahlua® coffee liqueur (http://www.drinksmixer.com/desc292.html)
milk (http://www.drinksmixer.com/desc48.html)
1 splash Coca-Cola® (http://www.drinksmixer.com/desc264.html)



In a shaker mix Vodka, Kahlua, and milk. Pour into a rocks glass and add a splash of Coca-Cola.
Very hard to drink just one

[Knute Chapman]

If I were to give a person who was completely new to horseracing a quick and relatively easy way to come up with the most likely contendors in a race, I would tell them to mark off the first four or five horses listed in order of their morning line odds because over 80% of all winning horses come from this group. Then you can begin to handicap these horses to find out if one of them is worth a wager.