Big Payout Race 8/3

[miy4ever]

MNR - Race #3

This is a "weaker horses' race", & it has a potential to pay big 2morrow, ie Ex in 3-digits (& if not 3-digits, then at least $50-$99 range).
Tri will be in 3-digits (around $300), & Spf in 4-digits (& if not 4-digits, then $700+).

#6 (Pure Reward) figures to win here. But other probable contenders are #1, #2 & #8 also.

So, $1 Ex (boxed) - 1,2,6,8 = $12.00.

[garyscpa]

You just took the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd favorite, along with the 6th favorite, according to the M/L, and you think it's going to pay big?

It may, but not to that ticket.

[miy4ever]

You just took the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd favorite, along with the 6th favorite, according to the M/L, and you think it's going to pay big?

It may, but not to that ticket.
You are right. They do have M/L odds in that order, but the betting public frequently gets fooled in such a race. So, the final odds will be such that these payouts will turn out to be big. #8 filly is such a threat 2morrow, & she will alter the payouts.
Thanx.

[miy4ever]

YAV - Race #6

#5 figures to win here.
$1 Ex - 5/1,2,4,7 = $4.00

Good Luck to all!

[garyscpa]

It's certainly possible, because even the the Mountainman makes the M/L there, the race often goes off at significantly different odds.

Especially since you left out the :3: horse. Deshawn Parker always gets bet down there, and if he doesn't, you need to bet on him.

[miy4ever]

Especially since you left out the :3: horse. Deshawn Parker always gets bet down there, and if he doesn't, you need to bet on him.
That's a good point. I'll keep that in mind 2morrow, before actual betting. Plus, depending upon scratches &/or changes, I might alter my final selections. We'll see. I'll re-post it before the race time. But thanx any way.

[miy4ever]

You just took the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd favorite, along with the 6th favorite, according to the M/L, and you think it's going to pay big?

It may, but not to that ticket.
Forgot to mention one thing in my 1st post. Those are 2 separate predictions, meaning 1) it will turn out to be a big payout race, & 2) my selections (1,2,6,8 boxed).
My only problem is that there are 2 "track debutants" in this race (#3 & #7), & both of them have performed poorly before, so if one of them surprises us 2morrow, then it's going to be a big payout. At this point, I've ignored them looking at their 2 previous poor performances, but I could be wrong. I'll re-post my final selections before the race time. I could use them in the 1st leg, too. We'll see.
Thanx.

[miy4ever]

FL - Race #9

$1 ExX - 4,6 = $2.00

DEL - Race #7

Show on #3 - The reason to select this colt for show is that he may/may not win, but the public is going to ignore him looking at his 40000 tag last out (& today's race is an MSW race), in which he had run an impressive race. Plus, the price is right(8/1 M/L), so a show should return at least 3 times the money.

Thanx & Good Luck to all!

[miy4ever]

DEL - Race #4

$1 ExX - 2,3,7 = $6.00

In this race, #4 & #8 should be thrown out. They don't figure to do well again today. Also, #4 seems to be a false underlay. I don't understand why the odd-makers gave him 7/2 (may be bcoz of J/T team?). This leaves us with remaining 6 runners. Out of them, #2, #3 & #7 need close attention. One of them will win, but #2 & #3 are short-priced. Only #7 is a real shot (M/L 15/1). Also, he is a "track debutant", so a surprise is awaiting!
As a cover-up, show on #7 should return 3 times (or may be more) money.

Thanx & Good Luck !

[miy4ever]

FL - Race #1

#3C (Y not Tony) should win here convincingly.

But the 2nd choice is difficult here, & that's where the money is.

So, $1 Ex - 3C/all = $5.00. If 3C gets scratched, then the whole scenario changes, & so will my selections for this race. I may pass it altogether in that case.

That's all for today. I found only 7-8 races (from Brisnet's free section - PDF files, & I do only MDNs & stakes races). Out of those, I passed 3-4 races since they were not beatable for/by me. The rest are here in this thread.

I'll re-post all these selections (if any changes in my strategy), before the race takes off. But as of now, they all look good. Only time will tell the truth.

Thanx & GL to all!

[miy4ever]

FL - Race #1

#3C (Y not Tony) should win here convincingly.

But the 2nd choice is difficult here, & that's where the money is.

So, $1 Ex - 3C/all = $5.00. If 3C gets scratched, then the whole scenario changes, & so will my selections for this race. I may pass it altogether in that case.

I'll re-post all these selections (if any changes in my strategy), before the race takes off. But as of now, they all look good. Only time will tell the truth.

Thanx & GL to all!

Only 2B has been scratched, as of now. Thus, it's now an 8-horse field. no change in selections.
$1 Ex - 3/all = $5.00.
It's 40 mins to go for this race, as of now.
Thanx.

[miy4ever]

DEL - Race #4

$1 ExX - 2,3,7 = $6.00

In this race, #4 & #8 should be thrown out. They don't figure to do well again today. Also, #4 seems to be a false underlay. I don't understand why the odd-makers gave him 7/2 (may be bcoz of J/T team?). This leaves us with remaining 6 runners. Out of them, #2, #3 & #7 need close attention. One of them will win, but #2 & #3 are short-priced. Only #7 is a real shot (M/L 15/1). Also, he is a "track debutant", so a surprise is awaiting!
As a cover-up, show on #7 should return 3 times (or may be more) money.

Thanx & Good Luck !

Place & Show - #7
$1 ExX - 2,3,7 = $6.00
$1 TrX - 2,3,7 = $6.00
Dime Spf - 2,3,7 (1st 3 legs)/all = $3.00.

Thanx & GL to all!

[miy4ever]

DEL - Race #7

Show on #3 - The reason to select this colt for show is that he may/may not win, but the public is going to ignore him looking at his 40000 tag last out (& today's race is an MSW race), in which he had run an impressive race. Plus, the price is right(8/1 M/L), so a show should return at least 3 times the money.

Thanx & Good Luck to all!

Since there is a scratch in this race (#6), now #3's chances increase, & so the odds will be lower than my expectation. Still, it should return a 2-2.5 times the money, on a show bet on #3.

Thanx & Good Luck!

[miy4ever]

Only 2B has been scratched, as of now. Thus, it's now an 8-horse field. no change in selections.
$1 Ex - 3/all = $5.00.
It's 40 mins to go for this race, as of now.
Thanx.

Super-flop! It came 5-6-3.

[miy4ever]

DEL - Race #4

$1 ExX - 2,3,7 = $6.00

In this race, #4 & #8 should be thrown out. They don't figure to do well again today. Also, #4 seems to be a false underlay. I don't understand why the odd-makers gave him 7/2 (may be bcoz of J/T team?). This leaves us with remaining 6 runners. Out of them, #2, #3 & #7 need close attention. One of them will win, but #2 & #3 are short-priced. Only #7 is a real shot (M/L 15/1). Also, he is a "track debutant", so a surprise is awaiting!
As a cover-up, show on #7 should return 3 times (or may be more) money.

Thanx & Good Luck !

As I check the odds (6 mins before the PT), public has brought #7 down to 5/2. So, he's lost the value. But Exacta has still some value, ranging from $19 to $48. Let's see what happens.

[miy4ever]

Place & Show - #7
$1 ExX - 2,3,7 = $6.00
$1 TrX - 2,3,7 = $6.00
Dime Spf - 2,3,7 (1st 3 legs)/all = $3.00.

Thanx & GL to all!

:ThmbUp: #2 won paying 13.80 (I didn't bet tho')! :ThmbUp: Show on #7 returned $2.80. :ThmbDown: Was wrong about #4's M/L odds. He placed! :ThmbDown: #3 finished 4th.

Still 4 more races to go for the day.

Thanx.

[miy4ever]

Since there is a scratch in this race (#6), now #3's chances increase, & so the odds will be lower than my expectation. Still, it should return a 2-2.5 times the money, on a show bet on #3.

Thanx & Good Luck!
:ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:
#3 showed, but as I had re-predicted, he didn't pay as much (even tho' the final odds were 9/1). Only $3.20! Not 2-2.5x. But no regrets!

Still 3 more to go.

Thanx & GL!

[miy4ever]

FL - Race #9

$1 ExX - 4,6 = $2.00

:ThmbDown: FL failed me today in both the races (R1 & R9). I'm not trying to find an excuse for my failure, but as I read the chart, #2, #3 & #4 had bumped into each other at the start.

Still 2 more to go.

[miy4ever]

YAV - Race #6

#5 figures to win here.
$1 Ex - 5/1,2,4,7 = $4.00

Good Luck to all!

Bad judgement again.

Still 1 more to go. Hope this one doesn't disappoint me as FL & YAV.

Thanx.

[miy4ever]

MNR - Race #3

This is a "weaker horses' race", & it has a potential to pay big 2morrow, ie Ex in 3-digits (& if not 3-digits, then at least $50-$99 range).
Tri will be in 3-digits (around $300), & Spf in 4-digits (& if not 4-digits, then $700+).

#6 (Pure Reward) figures to win here. But other probable contenders are #1, #2 & #8 also.

So, $1 Ex (boxed) - 1,2,6,8 = $12.00.

Looking at loses today, I changed my mind.
Will go with 6,8 (boxed) only, to save some money. Also, show on 8.
Still 1hr & 10 mins to go for the 3rd race. Will post 1 more final post for the outcome of the race.

Thanx all for viewing my disastrous day. Didn't lose much tho'.

[miy4ever]

MNR - Race #3

This is a "weaker horses' race", & it has a potential to pay big 2morrow, ie Ex in 3-digits (& if not 3-digits, then at least $50-$99 range).
Tri will be in 3-digits (around $300), & Spf in 4-digits (& if not 4-digits, then $700+).

#6 (Pure Reward) figures to win here. But other probable contenders are #1, #2 & #8 also.

So, $1 Ex (boxed) - 1,2,6,8 = $12.00.
:ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: First prediction was right. It did pay big. Ex $116, Tri $413.80 & Spf - $1174.20. All are within my range. How close one could get, I wonder !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

:ThmbDown:
As for my selections, #4 washed it out. The result is 4-6-2-1.

Not bad, even tho' I didn't win.
Thanx to all for viewing.

[miy4ever]

Hey guys, honestly, didn't realize until I said to myself JUST NOW that at least lemme check what were the final odds? That's when I found out that #8 was scratched. That was my trump card. No wonder, I didn't hit it. Wasn't around for a couple of hours. Now I may say to myself, "not bad at all." It was just a bad luck that I didn't alter my selection, coz I didn't know the scratches. May be ignorant, may be busy. For any reason, but the outcome was definitely affected by that change, IMO.

Thanx finally.