Lookin at Lucky the best 3 yr old

[Mineshaft]

this year and theres no discussion about it, end of story..

[Audioslavery]

Unbelievably dominant performance there, Quality who? :lol:

If we can get Quality Road, Lucky, Zen, and Rach in the gate this Fall, I might lose it!

[sonnyp]

do they head to the travers ???

[Mineshaft]

do they head to the travers ???




i would say yes then the Breeders Cup Classic

[sonnyp]

this is what racing could and should be like......not this rachel/zenyatta b.s.

people should stop caring where those 2 go or what they do. goldikiva is the best of that division by a long way anyway !

[Tom]

Looking at Lucky?
Quality Road might say Looking at Lunch.
Nice win over suspect horses.

[bisket]

i don't know what baffert has against saratoga, and new york in general. i could be wrong, but i don't think you'll see lucky there next.

[only11]

i would say yes then the Breeders Cup Classic
Synthetic horse yeah ok,hes better on dirt..Homer was impressive should be a great Travers..

[horses4courses]

i don't know what baffert has against saratoga, and new york in general. i could be wrong, but i don't think you'll see lucky there next.

You could be right.
He won't be afraid of any of the 3yos in the Travers, though.
If the horse is ready, they could run.

[bisket]

baffert hedged on the travers..... said two times he likes the surface at monmouth. theres an opportunity there for monmouth?

[sonnyp]

baffert just interviewed said lucky is much much better on dirt.

as far as next stop....pacific classic is out cause of polycrap and he (baffert) is heading to saratoga with peagrim tomorrow.

if lucky comes out o.k. the travers looks like its very possible.

[bisket]

funny how two people can watch the same interview and get two different outcomes?

[sonnyp]

i was thinking the same thing. we'll see. i hope he goes travers

with nothing out west (he did say pacific classic is out) i'd say the travers
is the obvious.

[bisket]

i was thinking the same thing. we'll see. i hope he goes travers
i'd like to see him there as well. he's been one of my favorite horses since last fall, and i think he can definately take that race.

[only11]

IS LLL better then Silver Charm?

[bisket]

IS LLL better then Silver Charm?
he's a ways to go to get to that level. i still think with a different jockey he could have won the derby...... baffert said he was going to run him as a 4 year old so he'll get the chance to prove it. he does remind me of silver charm in the way he runs. once he gets his head in front its over. nobody has ever passed him once he gets the lead.

[MickJ26]

I don't know, Baffert has always brought his best horses to New York.
Congaree, Indian Blessing, Midnight Lute, Silverbulletday, Bob and John.
Lookin at Lucky just had a two month layoff, why wouldn't he go in the Travers?

[bane]

I don't know, Baffert has always brought his best horses to New York.
Congaree, Indian Blessing, Midnight Lute, Silverbulletday, Bob and John.
Lookin at Lucky just had a two month layoff, why wouldn't he go in the Travers?

(coughs) PLETCHER (Coughs)

[WinterTriangle]

Looking at Lucky?
Quality Road might say Looking at Lunch.
Nice win over suspect horses.

LAL is 10-7-1-1 and I think it would be a stretch to call him lunch. He's won 5 G1's. Place and show were in G1s ---omni-surface horse, makes him more talented than the one-dimensionals who can only run on one surface IMHO.

QR wins are at 6.5F, 1 mile, 1-1/8.

BOTH are suspect at what I consider a truly classic distance of 1-1/4.

[bane]

LAL is 10-7-1-1 and I think it would be a stretch to call him lunch. He's won 5 G1's. Place and show were in G1s ---omni-surface horse, makes him more talented than the one-dimensionals who can only run on one surface IMHO.

QR wins are at 6.5F, 1 mile, 1-1/8.

BOTH are suspect at what I consider a truly classic distance of 1-1/4.

LAL is a good horse, don't get me wrong but this horse has been racing in Cali.=, so whats the average field size he has gone up against?

[Hanover1]

Could just be rounding into form...seen the bottom yet? perhaps close, but not there yet.......

[Vinnie]

Quality Road is a monster period.. The horse is phenomenal. On the dirt, and on a Fast Track, I just don't think that any horse can deal with him and that is up to the 1 1/4 mile distance IMHO. :)

[WinterTriangle]

LAL is a good horse, don't get me wrong but this horse has been racing in Cali.=, so whats the average field size he has gone up against?

bane, are you asking me or telling me? You could look it up as well as anybody.

East Coast STAKES races, on dirt:
fields of 7, 12, 20 (KY Derby can't count as a normal field size), 7

West Coast Stakes races, on synth:
6, 9, 11, 13 (BCC), 7, 10

I'll throw out the BCC and KY Derby since the field sizes are rather abnormal, and I get: 8.66 field size average on both West Coast synth and East Coast dirt.

So, what is your point?;)

Quality Road is a monster period.. The horse is phenomenal. On the dirt, and on a Fast Track, I just don't think that any horse can deal with him and that is up to the 1 1/4 mile distance IMHO. :)

Up to, or including?
If he can't run 1-1/4 then he is not eligible to run in what is considered the topmost classic distance races, here and abroad.

[bisket]

Quality Road is a monster period.. The horse is phenomenal. On the dirt, and on a Fast Track, I just don't think that any horse can deal with him and that is up to the 1 1/4 mile distance IMHO. :)
lets see..... the last "monster" that is comparable to quality road would be.... lawyer ron? a monster at 1 1/8 mile and did give curlin all wanted in a 1 turn 1 1/4 mile, but a back of the field speed horse when raced at 1 1/4 mile going 2 turns. just what has quality road done to make you think he's any different than the lawyer. i think the fact that pletcher won't race him past 1 1/8 mile until the classic speaks volumes in relation to his stamina. he'll set the race up perfectly for the real classic stamina type..... zenyatta!!

[cj]

Preliminary Beyer for LAL is 105 according to Formulator.

[Vinnie]

Preliminary Beyer for LAL is 105 according to Formulator.

CJ:

If you have done the figures for the Haskell and wouldn't mind sharing, do you believe that the 105 for LAL is accurate for todays race? :)

Thanks.

[cj]

I'll share, but I'm nowhere near that fast. I'll have it early Tuesday.

[Vinnie]

Thanks CJ:

Just curious to see if the 105 will be close to where you will gauge the figure.

[Steve R]

Preliminary Beyer for LAL is 105 according to Formulator.
My figure correlates with a Beyer equivalent of 103. I had his Preakness with a Beyer equivalent of 102. I think he is many lengths behind the better older runners at this stage and I think this crop remains very weak.

[PaceAdvantage]

Preliminary Beyer for LAL is 105 according to Formulator.Yawn...monster my ass...

[David-LV]

Quality Road is a monster period.. The horse is phenomenal. On the dirt, and on a Fast Track, I just don't think that any horse can deal with him and that is up to the 1 1/4 mile distance IMHO. :)

Are we going to start that again, who is better?

What does all this who is better talk really prove?

Can't we just enjoy watching these great horses run. :)

__________
David-LV

MONMOUTH=A SCORE AT THE JERSEY SHORE.

[Vinnie]

I guess that I am just overly impressed with the abilities of this fine horse. I didn't mean to try to get a "who is better" of any sort going. I apologize if that is what you gleaned from my post. :)

Have a super evening..

[bisket]

My figure correlates with a Beyer equivalent of 103. I had his Preakness with a Beyer equivalent of 102. I think he is many lengths behind the better older runners at this stage and I think this crop remains very weak.
at this point in time thats the way i see it. although i have a suspicion that at 1 1/4 mile his figures will be a few lengths better. i think he has more ability than we've seen. i think one of the things that poly track has improved in our horses is to teach young horses to relax. then in the stretch run fast enough to win. you don't see many of them running on the lead like a scaredy cat, and blowing a field away by open lengths. relax..... get the lead in the stretch, and don't let anyone pass. i don't know if that puts lucky in the same league with quality road and zenyatta, but i don't think we have seen his best.

[alhattab]

this year and theres no discussion about it, end of story..

Given this is how the thread started why is everyone bothering to discuss?

[menifee]

Lookin at Lucky is probably the best 3yr old right now, but Paddy O'Prado might give him a run for his money.

Lucky won 2G1's (Haskell and Preakness) 1 G2 (Rebel) 3rd in Santa Anita Derby.

Paddy's won 2G2's (Colonial and Virginia), 1 G3 (Palm Beach) 2nd in Blue Grass (G1), 3rd in Kentucky Derby (G1)(should have been 2nd if not for KD).

Lucky's a faster horse, but Paddy's much more versatile (Turf, Dirt and Poly). Lucky's run better figures. From a historical perspective, they are in a weak class.

[WinterTriangle]

Lookin at Lucky is probably the best 3yr old right now, but Paddy O'Prado might give him a run for his money.

On turf.

Except that LAL probably isn't planning any turf races.


Most of the pedigree analysts thought paddy would be great on turf and indeed they were right it seems.

[Sericm]

(coughs) PLETCHER (Coughs)

Pletcher doesn't have a horse in his barn that could beat Lucky on the dirt at a mile and a quarter. As far as racing in Cali-his three best Beyers tossing out the Kentucy Derby are:
Oaklawn-102 Dirt
Pimlico-104 Dirt
Monmouth 105-106? Dirt.

No Jockey in the world could have overcome that start in the Kentucky Derby and he was still sixth.

Baffert has always run at New York. See him in the Travers or maybe the Jockey Club Gold Cup at Belmont. The only horse between him and the Breeders Cup Classic is possibly Zenyatta or a Euro which we don't know about.

[PaceAdvantage]

The only horse between him and the Breeders Cup Classic is possibly Zenyatta or a Euro which we don't know about.What? Seriously, is this an alternate universe where up is down and fast is slow? :lol:

[depalma113]

What? Seriously, is this an alternate universe where up is down and fast is slow? :lol:

Bizzaro World

[TheBid9]

I don't understand why these threads start out on a specific topic and transform into three others! Lucky's race, yesterday, was a pleasure to watch. He was smooth, responsive and won it at will. He did everything that Baffert and Garcia could have asked of him. As far as I'm concerned, he established himself as the best three year old in training. But what does that have to do with Zenyatta or Quality Road? Here we go again! Distances, Beyers.... apples and oranges! I understand forums are an exchange of opinions but what do you get by comparing a 3 year old to an older and stronger horse(Quality Road). I don't get it. Well I'm staying within the thread...Lucky, right now, is the best three year old in training!

[alhattab]

LAL is 10-7-1-1 and I think it would be a stretch to call him lunch. He's won 5 G1's. Place and show were in G1s ---omni-surface horse, makes him more talented than the one-dimensionals who can only run on one surface IMHO.

QR wins are at 6.5F, 1 mile, 1-1/8.

BOTH are suspect at what I consider a truly classic distance of 1-1/4.

I agree about Lookin' at Lucky going 1 1/4 miles. My view is his pedigree doesn't exactly scream it. Yeah he won the Preakness but wasn't dazzling. I hope he runs in the Travers as I'll be looking to bet against him, but I don't think he will.

BTW I thought First Dude was going to run close to last but he came again to get third. He's pretty game- see Preakness- reminds me a bit of Hard Spun. King's Bishop?

[classhandicapper]

I think LAL is a very solid 3YO.

He's a very game 8 for 11 and in his 3 losses he had horrible trips. He was the champion 2YO on synthetic and seems equally comfortable on dirt. His figures on each surface have been moving forward slowly (trip adjusted). I don't think we've seen his best yet. By year end he should fit nicely with some of the better older horses even if he's not quite up to them.

[PaceAdvantage]

I think LAL is a very solid 3YO.

He's a very game 8 for 11 and in his 3 losses he had horrible trips. He was the champion 2YO on synthetic and seems equally comfortable on dirt. His figures on each surface have been moving forward slowly (trip adjusted). I don't think we've seen his best yet. By year end he should fit nicely with some of the better older horses even if he's not quite up to them.This is an analysis I can hang my hat on. Definitely the best 3yo out there at the moment...that's not even debatable anymore...

I simply took issue with him being capable of running with the bigger names out there at the moment...

[KingChas]

I still think by the end of the year(BC) Trappe Shot will be the one.
If you don't get out of the gate or near the front end at MP you are still screwed.
Yes, the, new track surface hasn't changed things that much.
TS still would not have beaten LOL in the Haskell, if he had gotten a better start.
But my point is this horse made two quick class jumps in a short period of time.
(IMO) He will get better,given a little more rest in between races. ;)

[lamboguy]

one thing i can say is ROBERT BAFFERT=great trainer. he knew he had 1 horse to beat to win the HASKELL and he made sure he beat him. LOOKING AT LUCKY has the look of a horse that is getting better.

congradulations to those that are connected with the horse and those that bet him, he's a nice one.

[alhattab]

http://blog.timesunion.com/horseracing/lookin-at-lucky-wont-run-in-travers/5174/

[horses4courses]

Let's face it.
Lucky is not the first to need a good dose of penicilin after a weekend on the Jersey Shore...... ;)

[alhattab]

Let's face it.
Lucky is not the first to need a good dose of penicilin after a weekend on the Jersey Shore...... ;)

Now more than ever apparently!

Thanks for the laugh that was a good one