The Haskell

[theguarantee]

OK, I'll bite. This is a very competitive and tight field in my opinion.

Lookin at Lucky - Don't think the rail draw is the minus here that most seem to. Derby day it was murderous, here it might help in my opinion. Worked a couple bullets and I can't really find a knock since the Derby is an easy toss and his two best races arguably came on fast dirt.

Afleet Again - Thought his race in the Pegasus was completely heroic and I don't think the added ground will be a problem whatsoever. Really felt he and Afleet Express were developing into two of the better 3-year-olds in the country....AE's performance yesterday would probably be viewed as a negative for AA here, but I think this is one you definitely don't want to leave out underneath.

Ice Box - Did anyone see the interview last week on TVG where Zito said something like "I really think Ice Box will win the ______" for some reason I thought he said the Travers but it might've been the Haskell. Personally, I think IB is the toughest to figure in here. I just can't seem to convince myself he won't be running them all down late, at least for a piece.

First Dude - How far can Dominguez keep him on? I'm guessing he runs Our Dark Knight into the ground quickly, but both Super Saver and Trappe Shot are likely to take their best shot at him and for all the heart he runs with I think the task today is going to be too tall again. Can't blame anyone taking a stand here though.

Our Dark Knight - Over his head in my opinion, basically Ice Box's bunny.

Super Saver - I'm betting against here. For as nice of a horse as SS is, I just still feel he's a notch below most of these.

UptownCharlyBrown - Everyone's rooting interest. Think he's a solid but even runner, not expecting many of these to struggle getting the 8th so can't see including personally...but outside of my bets is definitely the one I'd pull for.

Trappe Shot - The buzz horse, super serious horse that would surprise no one. Very intrigued to see the odds. To me, if I can get myself to toss Afleet Again it looks like a race between LAL, Ice Box and Trappe Shot. I think Trappe Shot's speed could put him in perfect position to pounce on First Dude if Knight and SS soften him up first...and even if they don't he might just be too fast to hold off. Give the big edge over Lucky for this reason and to me it's Trappe Shot moving past Dude turning for home trying to hold off Ice Box, AA and Lucky.

tri:
2,8/2,3,8/1,2,3,4,8 is my idea right now, with a possibility of switching Ice Box and AA for the top spot..value wise though, I still can't get past AA.

[OTM Al]

Nice analysis. At heart I am a class handicapper and the class of this field by a long amount, at least IMO, is Lookin at Lucky. Trappe Shot is the buzz and that is why I would stand against him. He is good so far, but the waters just got really deep here. Afleet Again I think should be flattered by Afleet Express' effort yesterday. He's the only one I would bet back from that race. Want nothing to do with First Dude. He couldn't get it done vs a far weaker group than this one in the Belmont. Ice Box may be closing in the end, but as will be his lot often, I don't think he gets there. As for Super Saver, hes got Calvin, but this aint Churchill Downs. Were I to bet this race I think I would do a simple exacta box with Lookin at Lucky and Afleet Again. As it is I have a big $2 wager on Lookin at Lucky as I put a small amount of money whet my mouth was on each of my picks in today's Monmouth contest.

[PhantomOnTour]

This just isn't Ice Box's type of track and I agree with OTM Al about First Dude. No way he hangs around when they start rolling. Looks a lot like a Trappe Shot/Lucky exacta.

[bisket]

when looking at a race i always start by thinking like a trainer. who would i place in this spot?
:1: lucky- as al mentioned the best horse in the field is lookin at lucky. i'm worried about his form though. after the derby he didn't get up in his stall for a day or two. then ran back in two weeks and won the preakness at less than his best form. then shortly after starting to train for haskel he developed a fever and missed a few days of training. for these reasons i'm not real confident in him winning

:2: afleet again- over his head

:3: ice box- i rate him just a smidgen below lucky, but he only has a few light works. i'm thinking he's in this for conditioning looking towards the travers or bigger races this fall. plus he had pallet surgery after the belmont, and i don't play horses with this problem.

:4: first dude- if this were my horse i would have skipped the belmont and looked towards this race. i think this is the spot that he could beat this crowd. he didn't train for a month, and only has light works leading into this race. i don't think this horse has been managed correctly. i played him in the fla derby, and like him at this distance. i don't think the trainer wants this race as badly as others. so i'm not gonna play him, but i think he's capable of winning here.

:5: our dark knight- at first i didn't like him in this spot, and thought he was a wabbit for ice box. after watching nicky on tvg earlier i changed my mind. the only time i play inexperienced speed like this is when its hot..... he's hot. so i'm gonna take the plunge. i played coal play over browny a few years back in this race, and didn't regret it. eventhough brown got him just before the wire, but you only live once.

:6: super saver- the one horse that appears to have had this race on his radar from the middle of may. i like the way he's coming into this race, and will be in all my wagers.

:8: trappe shot- a horse thats overplayed like this with his line is an automatic throwout for me. all his wins in his allowance races were over horses that are all in the claiming ranks today. his last at monmouth couldn't have set up for him any better. he got a dream trip, and that field was less than stellar. no thanks

now i look at the race like a jock
i think there are 4 horses ( :4: :5: :6: :8: ) that could set the pace the first few fractions. when this situation develops two things could happen: a suicide pace or a slow pace. i think the pace will be slow, and they're gonna let dark knight get away from them. so thats why i like him for the first two spots.
if super saver is allowed to come up the rail i think he can overtake knight, but thats not a given. if lucky is on his "A" game he passes both of them in the stretch. if not he finishes 3rd.

ice box and first dude could ruin things for me. if they do i'll tip my cap and go to the next race.
heres the play
5$ ex box
:5: :6:
2$ tri box
:1: :5: :6:

[Stillriledup]

Good stuff, Afleet Again is a good pick to get into the exa or tri at a nice price.

[Hoofhearted]

And my reading of the race is,

First Dude: An old favourite of mine. Back to his right distance after running a poor race over the mile-and-half Belmont. A natural front-runner, if he gets an easy early lead he may well out-gun the two Derby winners.

Looking At Lucky : Huge chance. Drawn against the rails. Worthy favourite.

Trappe Shot : A horse of great potential. Still improving and winner of two big races recently. Can't have him at the odds though; maybe a Lay early -- Back back at the Off trade.

Uptowncharlybrown 16/1: A bit to find with the principals, but ran okay enough in the Belmont before tiring in the straight. Might sneak into a Place at decent odds.


My bets will be:

Win .................................. First Dude

Boxed Exacta ................... First Dude, Looking At Lucky

Outsider E/W ................... Uptowncharlybrown

[Stillriledup]

And my reading of the race is,

First Dude: An old favourite of mine. Back to his right distance after running a poor race over the mile-and-half Belmont. A natural front-runner, if he gets an easy early lead he may well out-gun the two Derby winners.

Looking At Lucky : Huge chance. Drawn against the rails. Worthy favourite.

Trappe Shot : A horse of great potential. Still improving and winner of two big races recently. Can't have him at the odds though; maybe a Lay early -- Back back at the Off trade.

Uptowncharlybrown 16/1: A bit to find with the principals, but ran okay enough in the Belmont before tiring in the straight. Might sneak into a Place at decent odds.


My bets will be:

Win .................................. First Dude

Boxed Exacta ................... First Dude, Looking At Lucky

Outsider E/W ................... Uptowncharlybrown


Charly is scratched i think.

[Hoofhearted]

So he is! Cheers Stillriled.

What is the situation now regarding the WPS in light of seven only runners?
Is it only Win and Show or or the full WPS, could anyone of you kind folks enlighten me?
Thanks in advance.

[tbwinner]

WPS betting still available, along with all exotics (exacta, tri, super).

[tbwinner]

I think Ice Box will take it home today. His 2nd in the KY Derby still has me reeling after that horrible trip. Zito's rabbit can and will run down First Dude on the lead.

My plays:
3 WP
Key 3 over 1/2/4/6/8 EX
136 ex box
Key 3 over 1/4/6/8 over ALL tri
Key 3 over 1/4/6/8 over 1/2/4/6/8 over ALL super

[OTM Al]

Was going to do a straight exacta but Trappe Shot worried me too much so 1/2+8 for $10

[WinterTriangle]

I put mine down in selections early this morning, but I'll reiterate/expand here:

"Never underestimate Zito's "rabbits"....I put a place wager on Miner's Reserve on Sat while at Oaklawn and in a few contests, had a feeling he might beat Fly Down. (remember Da Tara LOL) His rabbits are always better horses than people think, and historically, I was looking at "rabbits" who have done great things in stakes races, we only need to be reminded. Zito plus Elvis is a good longshot to use in exotics (our dark knight). Trainer is 55% ITM.


I think Ice Box needs longer distance. First Dude is a monster, but I had to leave off somebody, and I'm gonna bet he gets worn down.


Not happy about LAL post #1 and I've always had a sneaking suspicion he isn't *really* a dirt horse, but he's so talented and game he can pull it off (sort of like Jackson Bend always outran his pedigree and was ITM) so I can't rule out the possibility.

UTCB has scratched, which is good, he wasn't on my ticket. With outside post he would have had to do something much better than we've seen, and so far, I haven't been impressed, he seems to find trouble. Afleets are doing very well this year so far, but I feel this one will be huffing and puffing for the distance.


Trappe Shot for the win is a suckers bet, I think he may not be up to snuff after his last.

Super Saver is rested, has a good post, and I thought he was best at the distance. Trainer is 51% ITM and will have him ready.


6-1 w/5-8

[PhantomOnTour]

At this point in the betting the value lies with the Derby winner

[bisket]

if super stays over 10-1 add 10$ to win on him. won't put this in until race time though.
the odds warrant a 3 horse ex box for 2$
:1: :5: :6:

[Learned Hand35]

At this point in the betting the value lies with the Derby winner

I have no numbers and I might just be imagining it, but isn't Monmouth one of Bo-rail's east coast tracks that he seems to like?

[bisket]

10$ win :5:

[Tee]

Ice Box looked great in the post parade. Me thinks he will put in a nice late run today. We'll see how much running the rest of em do early/late to determine his placing.

[broadreach]

Awesome acceleration from Lookin at Lucky :ThmbUp:

[WinterTriangle]

6-1 w/5-8



Looks like my "I had to throw somebody out" (First Dude) nudged my Super Saver out for the trifecta. :( Only got chalky exacta

Long reign LAL

I didn't see the whole race, had to go outside. did the afleet runner even get close, I'm thinking no. does anyone have full order of finish and could you post it including 5th, 6th, 7th

[OTM Al]

Class will out and Lucky has the most of any 3yo this year. Do owe my friend Donny for convincing me to use Trappe Shot in the exacta though. Not sure what it paid and it can't be much, but better than losing.

[bisket]

baffert had him ready to run. i have doubts about any of these 3 year olds getting a share this fall though.

[only11]

Ice Box the new DOLLAR BILL!

[Hedevar]

baffert had him ready to run. i have doubts about any of these 3 year olds getting a share this fall though.

We'll remember this statement.

[bisket]

nice to see baffert knows the game like da bisket..... zenyatta's 10 lengths better on the dirt

wooohoooooooo!!!!!
first mare to win back to back classics. remember you heard from da bisket first

[WinterTriangle]

We'll remember this statement.

And many will remember otherwise: how, instead of congratulating when he makes a correct statement, that you chose instead to enter topics to criticize when he's wrong. :ThmbDown:

BTW, where was your analysis in the topic?

Didn't show up to give that.

[WinterTriangle]

Ice Box the new DOLLAR BILL!

Not at 1-1/4 or +. A Classic distance.

[Hedevar]

There is no way that Zenyatta is 10 lenghts better than Looking At Lucky on dirt. How would you know? Based on Zenyatta's performances on dirt at Oaklawn. All two of them. Against who?

I don't make predictions here, I bet Winter. You want to make predictions and defend bisket that is your business.

[only11]

Not at 1-1/4 or +. A Classic distance.
WT hes going to win a big race this year semms a bit off form...maybe next race turf?

[Edward DeVere]

There is no way that Zenyatta is 10 lenghts better than Looking At Lucky on dirt.

Actually, Baffert said that Zenyatta is 10 lengths better on dirt than on synthetic. Hyperbole but we know what he meant.

This was after he said that LOL is much better on dirt than synthetic.

Baffert, like most right-thinking people, is not a fan of synthetics. He has said on numerous occasions that "synthetic takes a horse's brilliance away."

[Hedevar]

How many predictions did bisket make? Looks to me like he bet $10 to win on the 5 and had a bunch of exacta boxes with a 6-5 shot. Did any win?

[WinterTriangle]

WT hes going to win a big race this year semms a bit off form...maybe next race turf?

I don't know, Only11. He may be a dud.

I said in LAL topic, and in others over time here, I am a fan of the truly classic horse. 1-1/4 (and above) is for me, a minimum classic distance.

It's why our most famous classic race, the KY Derby, is 1-1/4. (Unfortunately, it was shortened from 1-1/2. Just like the JCGC was originally 2 miles :ThmbDown: )

The Melbourne, Arc d'Triomphe, Ascot Gold Cup, Belmont, BCC, Epsom Derby(English Derby), St. Leger, etc are all longer.

[bisket]

good play al. sounds like you ended the day on a positive note in these last two races.

[classhandicapper]

I guess last year's 2YO champion that made his reputation running slow races on synthetic surfaces in CA is actually a much better horse than his synthetic figures suggested. :sleeping:

[cj]

I guess last year's 2YO champion that made his reputation running slow races on synthetic surfaces in CA is actually a much better horse than his synthetic figures suggested. :sleeping:

I've been a fan all along, but it is because he is better on dirt. I'm not sure how you can say he is the same horse on both if that is the implication.

[classhandicapper]

I've been a fan all along, but it is because he is better on dirt. I'm not sure how you can say he is the same horse on both if that is the implication.

I think he's very similar on both surfaces. His figures may be faster on dirt, but part of that is related to 3YO development and part is related to the figures not being transferable.

IMO he's also a horse that is not especially brilliant but is especially game and is generally only giving what is required to win. That will allow him to beat horses that look similar numerically on a fairly consistent basis.

[cj]

I think he's very similar on both surfaces. His figures may be faster on dirt, but part of that is related to 3YO development and part is related to the figures not being transferable.

For me, he is more a grinder type and doesn't have that quick burst of speed. That gets him his troubled trips, and that is a lot more likely to happen on rubber where the pace is slow and the fields bunched. Therefore, I think he is better on dirt, ala Curlin.

[classhandicapper]

For me, he is more a grinder type and doesn't have that quick burst of speed. That gets him his troubled trips, and that is a lot more likely to happen on rubber where the pace is slow and the fields bunched. Therefore, I think he is better on dirt, ala Curlin.

I just edited my last comment and now see that you said similar things. :lol:

I agree that's he somewhat like Curlin, but I also think Curlin was very similar on all the surfaces. Just his figures were different.

[bisket]

I just edited my last comment and now see that you said similar things. :lol:

I agree that's he somewhat like Curlin, but I also think Curlin was very similar on all the surfaces. Just his figures were different.
in curlin's case as far his race on poly track is concerned. i find it hard to believe that a horse could run his FASTEST FINAL TIME at 1 1/4 mile, and not like the surface he's running on. there are many people that aren't aware of this fact who still to this day make excuses for him. he was beat by a faster horse!!! his is a case that shows that speed figs just don't work quite as well on poly and turf.

[kid4rilla]

First Dude is pretty damn gutty. Always seems to re-rally when headed.

Think we'll see him in the mile for BC. I'd like to see him in the grass mile.

[JustRalph]

First Dude is pretty damn gutty. Always seems to re-rally when headed.

Think we'll see him in the mile for BC. I'd like to see him in the grass mile.

exactly where I think he belongs. Might be pretty damn tough there.

[cj]

in curlin's case as far his race on poly track is concerned. i find it hard to believe that a horse could run his FASTEST FINAL TIME at 1 1/4 mile, and not like the surface he's running on. there are many people that aren't aware of this fact who still to this day make excuses for him. he was beat by a faster horse!!! his is a case that shows that speed figs just don't work quite as well on poly and turf.

It shows me you know little about adjusting for the speed of the surface a horse is running on.

It is true speed figures alone don't work as well on synthetics and turf, but with pace figures in combination they work just fine.

[classhandicapper]

in curlin's case as far his race on poly track is concerned. i find it hard to believe that a horse could run his FASTEST FINAL TIME at 1 1/4 mile, and not like the surface he's running on. there are many people that aren't aware of this fact who still to this day make excuses for him. he was beat by a faster horse!!! his is a case that shows that speed figs just don't work quite as well on poly and turf.

I think you have to adjust for speed of the surface on any given day, but I thought he made a huge wide somewhat premature move in the Classic and wasn't beaten badly by a couple of very good horses. Had he moved just a tad later and lost a little less ground, he probably would have been right there and everyone would think much more of his effort.

When he ran on the turf, he got totally left at the start and was 15 lengths off in an even paced race but still ran a decent second. He lost to a former BC winner.

If he wasn't as good on those other surfaces, it wasn't by much and certainly not by as much as perceptions.

[jefftune]

Trappe Shot had an awful trip in the Haskell - broke slow, went four wide on the stretch turn. I can't wait to bet him next time he runs. If he meets Lookin At Lucky again it will be MUCH closer.

-Jeff Tune
www.angelfire.com/pa/tune (http://www.angelfire.com/pa/tune)

[bisket]

It shows me you know little about adjusting for the speed of the surface a horse is running on.

It is true speed figures alone don't work as well on synthetics and turf, but with pace figures in combination they work just fine.
so let me get this straight..... he ran faster in the classic than his race at belmont with lawyer ron running out front early pushing the pace in a ONE TURN RACE. so your adjustment is that his belmont race was slower....?

class handy. i agree. all i'm saying is i don't think curlin lost his turf and poly races because he didn't like the surface. the premature move in the classic is exactly the reason i thought he lost. horses can accelerate faster on poly, but can't sustain their momentum like they can on dirt.