Noob needs advice...

[Crush]

Hi!

I'm new to handicapping and have only 2 days worth of handicapping experience.

-I live in Toronto and attended Woodbine Racetrack yesterday and today. I won yesterday and today I broke even.

-I am a computer programmer/data analyst by profession. I have placed 1st place in 40 people competitions in World of Warcraft and have placed 1st regularly out of 16 people. Although it's a game I was good with the math system.

-My bets were all for 'show' and I like to bet the horse that I believe has the best odds that will finish in the top 3. I do not like betting favorites as they seem too risky. I witnessed people yesterday loose all their money on favorites. The whole crowed sighing then complaining.. it was funny hehe.. Betting favorites with such low ROI seems way, way too risky. Am I correct?

-I notice that the two most important things is #1 - If it has finished in the top 3 in its previous races, and #2, the horse is showing 'good form' when being paraded around for the audience to see. Each time the horse had its head down and was walking slow, the horse didn't do well in the race. I lose money on these. It's almost like you can visually see that the horse doesn't want to run. The horses that did well seemed to 'trot' a lot with its head high and head bopping up and down. I'm a noob so PLEASE correct me on these things if I'm wrong. These are just the things I noticed.

I really need advice on how to download from Brisnet and put the data into an application. A free application would be great. Any recommendations would be great. I have so many questions but I guess I need to first find out how to get my Brisnet data into a free application or spreadsheet and need help with that.

Thanks a bunch.

[therussmeister]

I don't do it, so I might be short on details, and have no opinion how good it is, but on Brisnet site, upper left you will see a link for free software. They offer several free handicapping programs for download. They also have the data in the right format for the software program of your choice.

[Greyfox]

For what it's worth,


You've got a lot of tools and skills that you bring to the game.
Before you plow into handicapping or building a program or reading any books on the topic, I'd encourage you to

Follow Pavlov's Dictum : "Observe and Observe"

Observe for a couple of weeks, make notes, and while doing so consider:
Why am I doing this?
What kind of a bettor-investor am I?
Do I enjoy this?
Then,
Give consideration to buying one or two handicapping books.
The best thing that you can do is keep your mind clear and open as long as you can before it becomes contaminated by the experts in the game.
Having said that, there are some excellent writers out there and not all are mainstream.

By the way, welcome to Pace Advantage.

You seem to have found it quickly enough.

[thespaah]

Hi!

I'm new to handicapping and have only 2 days worth of handicapping experience.

-I live in Toronto and attended Woodbine Racetrack yesterday and today. I won yesterday and today I broke even.

-I am a computer programmer/data analyst by profession. I have placed 1st place in 40 people competitions in World of Warcraft and have placed 1st regularly out of 16 people. Although it's a game I was good with the math system.

-My bets were all for 'show' and I like to bet the horse that I believe has the best odds that will finish in the top 3. I do not like betting favorites as they seem too risky. I witnessed people yesterday loose all their money on favorites. The whole crowed sighing then complaining.. it was funny hehe.. Betting favorites with such low ROI seems way, way too risky. Am I correct?

-I notice that the two most important things is #1 - If it has finished in the top 3 in its previous races, and #2, the horse is showing 'good form' when being paraded around for the audience to see. Each time the horse had its head down and was walking slow, the horse didn't do well in the race. I lose money on these. It's almost like you can visually see that the horse doesn't want to run. The horses that did well seemed to 'trot' a lot with its head high and head bopping up and down. I'm a noob so PLEASE correct me on these things if I'm wrong. These are just the things I noticed.

I really need advice on how to download from Brisnet and put the data into an application. A free application would be great. Any recommendations would be great. I have so many questions but I guess I need to first find out how to get my Brisnet data into a free application or spreadsheet and need help with that.

Thanks a bunch.
Observing horses in the post parade is a good start. Horses that look "fit and ready" are a place to get a foothold with regard ot making a betting choice.
Horses that look "washy" are throw outs for me. A stressed athlete never perfoms well.
Look for horses that are "on their toes", or look fresh and alert.
Beware of horses that throw their head about or look like the rider is struggling to control them during warmup. This activity makes the horse expend energy. Not good.
Favorites overall win about 33 to 35% of the races. Thye finish in the money about 50 or 60% of the time. But with show bets, the return is low.
My advice is to watch for "false" favorites and spot your show bets on those races. A false favorite may be a 6/5 shot in a maiden claiming race or low level claimer. I am not a show bet player at all. However I avoid short odds horses in these cheaper races. Just learn to read the conditions of the race.
And :jump: WELCOME to PA!!!!!!

[DRIVEWAY]

Just keep doing exactly what you're doing. Keep the wagers to a minimum and observe others doing similar to what your doing. Keep notes on the horses and the people in the paddock area. Go twenty times and then organize everything you've come accross and report back to us with your findings.

[Pell Mell]

And don't think your going to make money with the numbers game. The racing gods will beat the computer gods in the end.:cool:

[kenwoodall2]

I find 10%+ trainers are better at picking spots for their chargepi

[baldvin]

horse racing no easy game. things look easy but not. one thing work one wekk and next week dont work. my friend go broke. he think he see something that work in the betting and he make money for month or two and then in one day he go broke and have to leave vegas.

i don't think anybody beat this game.

[JustRalph]

And don't think your going to make money with the numbers game. The racing gods will beat the computer gods in the end.:cool:

excellent advice......if it was just numbers, everybody would be rich! :lol:

[kenwoodall2]

horse racing no easy game. things look easy but not. one thing work one wekk and next week dont work. my friend go broke. he think he see something that work in the betting and he make money for month or two and then in one day he go broke and have to leave vegas.

i don't think anybody beat this game.
Some who think outside the box do. Of course, in the box are many handicapping myths! Stats can seperate myth from reality. Also, casinos hand pix and names of big winners- racing goes not! Sre Finger lakes and 777 website for slots winners!

[PhantomOnTour]

Newcomers usually bring a simple approach to the game and it's an example that all of us studied players should learn from. We (well, me mostly) can often get too caught up in our pace & speed figs or trainer angles or trip notes to notice the two simple things the OP apparently focuses on: consistency and appearance on the track.

Good job, welcome to PA, and hope you learn to love the game like most of us do. It's the greatest game ever.

[Trotman]

Crush, beef, veggies and potatoes make a stew if you keep adding you have some kind of creation, what you call it who knows. Well IMO horse racing is pace and condition and the PP's give you that. All the other figures and numbers and angles give you the same result if you keep adding to the stew beyond beef, veggies and potatoes and that is who knows.

[Maxspa]

Crush,
I'm going to suggest that you get in touch with Ted Craven.
Ted Craven is from your area in Canada and is involved with computer handicapping. He has developed a computer program using the Sartin philosophy. I met Ted Craven last year at Saratoga and I can attest he is is a knowledgeable gentleman. Although very busy, I believe he will listen to your situation and give you some sound advice. He has an RDSS Group and a website but will not pressure you to join. You may want to log on at www.paceandcap.com. to judge for yourself if this approach has value for you.
The preceding is just my opinion and it is not my intention for you get involved with this group as a member!
Maxspa

[Force of One]

I would recommend picking up either "Ainsle's Complete Guide to Thoroughbred Racing" and/or Brad Free's "Handicapping 101". I think they are two very solid primers that will give you a well rounded knowledge base.

As for your initial observations, I feel they are a good start but too simplistic to start betting any serious money on. In my mind, appearance on the track is only valuable if an incredible extreme is showing either way, and even then I don't put all my eggs in that basket. I rely much more on handicapping fundmental (especially form and pace) to make my decisons.

One other bit of advice that might save you some time - don't look for that magic bullet formula that works all the time. Nothing does. Hammer the fundementals, stay disciplined to your game plan, work hard, and you can win.

Good luck!

[njcurveball]

I really need advice on how to download from Brisnet and put the data into an application. A free application would be great. Any recommendations would be great. I have so many questions but I guess I need to first find out how to get my Brisnet data into a free application or spreadsheet and need help with that.

Thanks a bunch.

You will find many different computer applications. I have tried most of them and the best out there is HTR. Do a search on HTR or Ken Massa and you will find the information you need to research further.

There is a large group of Access users who download racing data and do many forms of queries. Ken also has ways to query data without a database and there are a million other things.

HDW supplies the data and they are without the doubt the best provider out there and their data plus the factors only found in HTR are way ahead of the rest.

Good luck,
Jim

[chickenhead]

put 100% of your focus into learning Betfair, learn wagering and what your opportunities are entirely within that framework.

www.betfair.com

[raybo]

Check out my website for free Excel spreadsheet with automated importation of Brisnet files into Excel. There are help files and screenshots there for information about the spreadsheet.

AllData - Home (http://alldataexcel.weebly.com/)

[Crush]

Hey thanks for all the help. I've downloaded all the tools and am having trouble with them except for F.a.s.t.

I'm leaving right now for Woodbine. Here are my picks. Picks will change depending on how well the horse shows.

I'm only betting $10 for 'show' placing while I learn the game.

Race #6 - :4: or :7: (tie. will depend on odds/showing, etc. leaning on :4: though)

Race #7 - :1:, :2: or :7: (Leaning on :2: but odds will depend)

Race #8 - :8: looks interesting but will most likely sit this one out. Some analysis from you guys would be great on this one.

Race #9 - :8: for $5? I have no idea how to bet these kind of races. What do you guys do? I'll most likely sit this one out.

Race #10 - :1:, :7:, :10: (I actually thought of doing a trifecta box for this one hehe.. Will depend on odds and horse showing for which I pick. How would you guys bet this race?)

You can watch LIVE below. These races start at 3:30pm today (Monday). You can see the horses form and how they are showing before the race.

http://www.woodbineentertainment.com/Woodbine/Racing/Pages/liveracing.aspx

They post replays to the above races on Youtube here. They'll be up tonight. Sort the videos by 'date added' and look for Tbred for todays date.

http://www.youtube.com/user/WEGReplays

[shouldacoulda]

Nice picks. Looks like you were right on the 8th race @6.65-1. What ever you're doing is working.

[Crush]

Nice picks. Looks like you were right on the 8th race @6.65-1. What ever you're doing is working.

Hi thanks!

Well today was a good day. I still have yet to lose money at the track my 3rd time out. I made $6 today.

Here's how I bet:

Race #6 - WON! Odds were too high on :4:. Decided after viewing horses to bet a show on my back up choice :3:. Winning was 4.20! Nice!

Race #7 - Here's where we BLEW IT! We were SO SURE that :7: was going to win the race, we bet $2 box exactas for :7:,:2: :7:,:4: :7:,:6:. Since it was my first exacta bet and it was 0 minute to race and I was flustered, guess who FORGOT the combination he wanted most - 7,1. Yup sure enough I forgot that one. Despite me having written down and all I was too excited to run back to my seat and watch the race. I'm not sure how much I lost out. I wont make that mistake again though. Learning experience. I was like 'didn't i bet that combination??'. All my brother and I did after was kick ourselves for letting that one go.

Race #8 - Sat out and glad I did.

Race #9 - Sat out and glad I did.

Race #10 - WON (and lost). $10 show DH for :10:. Wow what a FUN race. I was jumping out of my seat cheering. The bet we LOST was a 2$ box exacta on horses :10:,:1:.

Now guys. We have a huge paying exacta on :10: and :1: boxed. Please see the below video and maybe you can hear us screaming in the background! It was sad to lose, but we admit the $2 was well worth the excitement. Maybe you can share some of our excitement today!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i8kqNwCM-Y0