The Jim Dandy

[OTM Al]

Don't have to go far to find today's race of the day. Looking forward to seeing this one up close. The "stars" may be running tomorrow, but the cast of characters here is far more challenging.

Aiden O'Brien has sent one of his second stringers over in Steinbeck. Don't sell him short as he's been running against better than the lest of this lot. Dirt of course is the question. Then we have two NY breds steping up from some very strong performances. Throw in some late bloomers and a couple that got sidetracked along the way and we have a very tough field.

I'm going with Afleet Express here off his win in the Pegusus. I look for him to be just off the pace and getting first jump on the field. Underneath I will use A Little Warm who I think will get run down in the lane. Going to use a wildcard here with Friend or Foe who looked great last out and beat some good competition. So the play is 2/5+8 and a 2+8 exacta box

[only11]

Don't have to go far to find today's race of the day. Looking forward to seeing this one up close. The "stars" may be running tomorrow, but the cast of characters here is far more challenging.

Aiden O'Brien has sent one of his second stringers over in Steinbeck. Don't sell him short as he's been running against better than the lest of this lot. Dirt of course is the question. Then we have two NY breds steping up from some very strong performances. Throw in some late bloomers and a couple that got sidetracked along the way and we have a very tough field.

I'm going with Afleet Express here off his win in the Pegusus. I look for him to be just off the pace and getting first jump on the field. Underneath I will use A Little Warm who I think will get run down in the lane. Going to use a wildcard here with Friend or Foe who looked great last out and beat some good competition. So the play is 2/5+8 and a 2+8 exacta box
Aikenite..

[PhantomOnTour]

Friend Or Foe is very interesting to me. He has the figs to compete but steps up from NY bred races and stretches out. Oddly, the horse I am seriously leaning against right now is Fly Down.

IMO, Aikenite has no shot.

[OTM Al]

Aikenite..

The point of me posting these threads in the handicapping section is to have some actual handicapping discussion. If we were just posing picks, there's a separate section for that. I agree with Phantom that he has no chance, but I'd like to hear your reasoning why you picked him.

[OTM Al]

Friend Or Foe is very interesting to me. He has the figs to compete but steps up from NY bred races and stretches out. Oddly, the horse I am seriously leaning against right now is Fly Down.

IMO, Aikenite has no shot.

I have to agree on Fly Down. I hated him in this and never considered using him. Far more tempted by the import and the other NY bred than him. I'm calling the Belmont a negative race. Let's see if I'm right....

Must admit though if I was betting by my heart, I'd go for Winslow, but he may not run anyway.

[horses4courses]

I think A Little Warm has what it takes to win today.

Good luck all!

[OTM Al]

I think A Little Warm has what it takes to win today.

Good luck all!

Reasons? To be fair I will nag everyone on this

[PhantomOnTour]

Fly Down came out of a very slow Belmont and a slow paced Dwyer, which he did well to close behind and win, but any sort of pace today may leave him far behind early....maybe too far. I see many stalker types getting the jump on him (Friend Or Foe, Afleet Exp., Stormy, Winslow, and A Little Warm). Word is that Zito will run Miners Reserve on Sunday, thus hurting Fly Down's chances of a hot pace to run at....I just can't have him here esp if he's the chalk.

[only11]

The point of me posting these threads in the handicapping section is to have some actual handicapping discussion. If we were just posing picks, there's a separate section for that. I agree with Phantom that he has no chance, but I'd like to hear your reasoning why you picked him.
Perfect race for a horse like Aikenite to win...
Miners Reserve and Winslows Homers will run tomorrow..field is down to 7..Friend or Foe steps up in class from racing NY Breds....Steinbeck who knows?/
Afleet Express will be a overbet as well as Fly Down..Zito hasnt had a winner at Spa yet..
Stormy's Majesty lightly race..
Aikenite broke his maiden here last year(Ice Box ran same race)..ran a huge race in the hopeful..A.he likes the track.
B.Ran a good 2nd in the derby trial in which Miners Reserve ran next to last..over match in the preakness...the Holy Bull race @ GP hes was 3-1 bobbled at the start dueled thru some suicidal fractions and tired...his bluegrasss stakes wasa complete throwout.. hes has some class running against the best 3year old in the
country....
C.his prep race for this was against a good field hes back at the SPA..he will be a overlay in a race where he could win easily..
A.Likes the track
B.Has some class
C.10-1 is worth the bet..

[GaryG]

A LITTLE WARM for me. Came back in top form in that Del alw. Pressed a hot pace on a dull track and the final time was fast as well. That was just his 2nd two turner and it sets him up nicely. Worked well over the track and I see him stalking and getting first run.

[Grits]

Fly Down to win it. His distance--has won at it twice, has the highest figure at the distance. Nothing else in the race has won at the distance. Only horse, too, whose every start, with the exception of one, has been at 1 1/16th or greater. Runs well fresh. Training over the Oklahoma since late May. Good deal of speed in the race, he'll be at the wire when front end tires. Sleepers are Miner's Reserve and statebred Stormy's Majesty.

Good luck.

[woodtoo]

#3 Stormy's Majesty 15/1 has done nothing but win,is moving up in class but
distance wont be a problem.expecting a top 3 finish from this improving colt

[OTM Al]

Miner's Reserve is in this race. Only Winslow scratched

[JustRalph]

I smell Hot Pace......... which makes me favor Fly Down.

I also like Miners Reserve if he gets the ride and by that I mean a patient one

I think Afleet Express is the horse to beat and maybe the pace will put the other two in front of him...........

:9: :6: :2: :5:

[Rise Over Run]

I think Afleet Express jumps into the mix of the better 3 year olds with a big performance today in the Jim Dandy. I hope to see at least 3-1 on him.

[toetoe]

I think some of you are misreading Fly Down.

Don't blame the horse for JVel's Pat (Wegotall) Day-style ride in the Belmont Stakes. After being rated for over eleven furlongs, he made a courageous run at Drosselmeyer, who never beat him before, and probably never will again.

Fly Down is B.C. Classic material, and my pick today.

[Tom]

Fly Down - he's got a fast rabbit and he has the two best 3rd fractions at a dirt route. The pace should be fast and he should love it.

Aikenite ran a couple just a tad slower on poly and is the hold hm back go for one run late, he would be no surprise.

:2::4::9: box
:9:/:2::4:
:2::4:/:9:

:9: WP

[clore1030]

I have to go with A Little Warm. In his last six races, he has not been more than one length out of it at the wire. He's had two strong G2 finishes and while the last was against mostly lesser company, it was his first shot in three months since a nice Louisiana Derby.

I don't see him being far behind as they turn for home.

[gm10]

Stormy's Majesty and Aikenite have a good a shot as the shorter prices

[PhantomOnTour]

Here's the play:

TRI: :2: :3: :5: w :8: w :2: :3: :5: :6: :9:
WIN: :8:

Fingers crossed that Fly Down doesn't get me. Friend Or Foe had a nice work as well but all the talk is of Fly Down's work...maybe he's not fully cranked while looking to the Travers...?

[woodtoo]

Here's the play:

TRI: :2: :3: :5: w :8: w :2: :3: :5: :6: :9:
WIN: :8:

Fingers crossed that Fly Down doesn't get me. Friend Or Foe had a nice work as well but all the talk is of Fly Down's work...maybe he's not fully cranked while looking to the Travers...?

throw in a :2: :3: :5: exacta box I'm in :D

[Tom]

I have to go with A Little Warm. In his last six races, he has not been more than one length out of it at the wire. He's had two strong G2 finishes and while the last was against mostly lesser company, it was his first shot in three months since a nice Louisiana Derby.

I don't see him being far behind as they turn for home.

Nice! :ThmbUp:

I have no respect for anything beyond the top two - nothing early, less late.

[OTM Al]

I smell Hot Pace......... which makes me favor Fly Down.

I also like Miners Reserve if he gets the ride and by that I mean a patient one

I think Afleet Express is the horse to beat and maybe the pace will put the other two in front of him...........

:9: :6: :2: :5:

Hope you had a box on that one.

Afleet Express looked dead in the turn and next thing he's rallying again. Not sure if that says something about him or the competition. Good job those that hit!

[PhantomOnTour]

nice pick clore and gary g.

Zito aiming for this race with Miners Reserve and the next race with Fly Down....???

[only11]

A LITTLE WARM for me. Came back in top form in that Del alw. Pressed a hot pace on a dull track and the final time was fast as well. That was just his 2nd two turner and it sets him up nicely. Worked well over the track and I see him stalking and getting first run.
:ThmbUp: good call G

[Tom]

Sorry Gary, missed that pick! :ThmbUp::ThmbUp:

[only11]

nice pick clore and gary g.

Zito aiming for this race with Miners Reserve and the next race with Fly Down....???
Phantom was it me or did Afleet Express finish full of run(prep for Travers)

[PhantomOnTour]

Phantom was it me or did Afleet Express finish full of run(prep for Travers)
No one was really moving too well at the end...have to check the replays later. Off to Evd for a night of low class racin'!

[only11]

No one was really moving too well at the end...have to check the replays later. Off to Evd for a night of low class racin'!
How do you do it?God bless you,good luck!

[Java Gold@TFT]

I really don't think we saw the Travers winner today. Congrats to those that had this one.

[bisket]

i would consider only 1 horse for a play in the travers from this race: afleet express. i'll give fly down a mulligan in this race though. i think he's still a nice horse.

every route at saratoga today played very similar to this race. the order the horses were in turning for home pretty much held up. only the stalkers overcame the pace setters in the stretch. although i really hope both miner and a little warm move on because i think they will set up the travers almost perfectly for the horse i do like in that race.

[Grits]

I think A Little Warm has what it takes to win today.

Good luck all!

Nice work!!! And to GaryG also.:ThmbUp:

[clore1030]

Nice! :ThmbUp:

I have no respect for anything beyond the top two - nothing early, less late.

Thank you. I had forgotten to originally mention that the horse had also won at three different tracks. That says a lot to me about inner class and ability.

I didn't expect more than 3/1, so the price was quite satisfactory.

[toetoe]

If Fly Down is now officially a Clydesdale, I'm off his bandwagon. Where's the quick move he used to snatch the lead and draw off three(?) races back ? He barely got out of his own way today. (:Holding nose and :( .)

[GaryG]

Thanks guys.....and Grits too!

[JustRalph]

Hope you had a box on that one.

Afleet Express looked dead in the turn and next thing he's rallying again. Not sure if that says something about him or the competition. Good job those that hit!

I made my day with the place money on the :6: and a small exacta ticket.

At 15-1 I played the :6: w/p and my partners around me at Laurel (Cj's Dad and his buddy Gary) cashed on the Tri after intense numbers crunching and discussion between the three of us..... :lol:

Nobody was coming from behind today and we wrote Fly Down off prior to placing our wagers.

[theguarantee]

So Afleet Express tracked between 3rd/5th on the rail, then just before turning for home was said to be "all out" but really was losing ground and passed by nearly every horse, then out of nowhere he starts to gather steam and closes like a rocket for 3rd. Did I see that right? Wonder what the internal splits for the race and for AE were because I'm not sure I can seem to recall a horse running such a weird race. I find it kind of hard to believe that every horse behind him made their best move on the turn and completely flattened out as he re-passed...seemed to me that (Lezcano? I forget) kept asking and asking and only when all hope was lost did he finally click into gear.

In hindsight, this was a race that if you handicapped to the most rudimentary degree was pretty easy. Warm/Reserve run the exact same race going an extra 1/16, nothing changed at all it seemed. If you pinned either as the one to beat the exacta was a cake walk and the tri I think was 344 with the second most logical horse underneath. I marked Miner as "arguably as good as Warm" and used Afleet/Miner on top, opting for value and getting nothing in return for it.

[Grits]

I made my day with the place money on the :6: and a small exacta ticket.

At 15-1 I played the :6: w/p and my partners around me at Laurel (Cj's Dad and his buddy Gary) cashed on the Tri after intense numbers crunching and discussion between the three of us..... :lol:

Nobody was coming from behind today and we wrote Fly Down off prior to placing our wagers.

Sounds like you guys had fun today. Glad you did!!! Thank the Lord for that sleeper.:lol:

[OTM Al]

I made my day with the place money on the :6: and a small exacta ticket.

At 15-1 I played the :6: w/p and my partners around me at Laurel (Cj's Dad and his buddy Gary) cashed on the Tri after intense numbers crunching and discussion between the three of us..... :lol:

Nobody was coming from behind today and we wrote Fly Down off prior to placing our wagers.

Excellent. I honestly believe that the Belmont was a bust this year as far as the top ones doing anything again, so every one is a bet against to me and that trend will continue in tomorrow's big race.

[theguarantee]

Excellent. I honestly believe that the Belmont was a bust this year as far as the top ones doing anything again, so every one is a bet against to me and that trend will continue in tomorrow's big race.


You going to start another thread for that one?

I'm in agreement about the Belmont for the most part, foaming at the mouth at the other Afleet's morning line odds...but I do like Ice Box, a horse I didn't like Belmont day and never really understood the appeal of that day...think this distance and track are in his favor.

[OTM Al]

You going to start another thread for that one?

I'm in agreement about the Belmont for the most part, foaming at the mouth at the other Afleet's morning line odds...but I do like Ice Box, a horse I didn't like Belmont day and never really understood the appeal of that day...think this distance and track are in his favor.

Nope, but you can. I found one that I think is a bit more interesting, but why don't you start this one off yourself. I'll post my ideas.

[cnollfan]

In hindsight, this was a race that if you handicapped to the most rudimentary degree was pretty easy. Warm/Reserve run the exact same race going an extra 1/16, nothing changed at all it seemed. If you pinned either as the one to beat the exacta was a cake walk.

Agree, in hindsight. I bet Miner's Reserve to win as the lone speed with Calvin and hedged him in the exacta under -- Fly Down, period. Looking back, at close to $100, why not A Little Warm, also?

[Fager Fan]

I realize this will be viewed as a "sure, you say that now" post given that I'm posting after the race, but I'm puzzled why anyone would like the O'Brien horse. The guy has a horrible record running over here on dirt. He might be a great at figuring out European turf horses, but he has not a clue about dirt horses and dirt racing. Then there's the issue with the horse running about 8 days ago. That's a bit uncommon even for a horse who does nothing more than walk to a hundred yards from his barn, but for one to fly in from overseas? He was the easiest toss for the win in the field, by far.

[Bettowin]

ESPN just had the Jim Dandy in the top ten on the "play of the day". ( #9 )Showed the stretch run and the winner. Great for racing?

Probably not because the announcer said after the fact "I don't know who that was and why it was in the top ten"

Kinda sums it up for the sport.

[Grits]

ESPN just had the Jim Dandy in the top ten on the "play of the day". ( #9 )Showed the stretch run and the winner. Great for racing?

Probably not because the announcer said after the fact "I don't know who that was and why it was in the top ten"

Kinda sums it up for the sport.

BTW, maybe not. Its more indicative of the sports commentator's stupidity and how woefully incompetent he is at his job. Most likely, he's not the production manager of the program, and therefore not in the position of deciding the "plays of the day."

Just a dude readin' a teleprompter.:lol: