Kevroc
07-30-2010, 12:30 PM
Going to make the breakdown threads weekly, here goes!
Del Mar .50 pick four
RACE 5 $50k MSW for Cal breds 3yo & up 6.5f Synthetic 9pm EST
:1: Cee's Pryme- Carla Gaines first time starter gets Rosario up. Working wonderfully and cannot be ignored. :ThmbUp:
:2: Bobb's N Paradise- Little known barn sends out this firster and the works show nothing special. Would be a surprise.
:3: Full Effect- 0 for 17 Mike Harrington 3yo Swiss Yodeler colt. This is his 11th try as a 3yo. Speed figures are steadily climbing and has hit the board in 6 of last 8 starts. This is not the kind of animal I like to put money on and if he wins, I call it an early night.
:4: Personalitary- Jenine Sahadi first time starter with Martin Garcia up. His workout on July 15th going 5f at SA was pretty darn good but, the last tune-up over the DMR course was very pedestrian. Singletary firsters are 2 for 18 and Sahadi is 0 for 4 with them. I'm going to pass.
:5: Shu Biz Danny- Another Swiss Yodeler horse. This gelding is sent out for the first time for Robert Troeger. A low percentage barn. The works are not that bad but, not eyepopping either. I'd like to see a race first before betting him.
:6: Armenian Star- jame Lloyd first time starter gets Nakatani. The sire is 9% with firsters and the barn is low percentage. The works suggest he may want to go longer. Let's watch a race before plunking down any cash.
:7: Gobbler's Knob- 6yo maiden is 0 for 24 lifetime. He has run some decent numbers but, has been put on the shelf many many times in his career. This guy is always an also ran and if he jumps up and bites me so be it.
:8: Absolutlypositivly- Out of all the runners that have already been to the gate, this one seems most eligible to improve in my opinion. Working bullets for Matt Chew and has run multiple 90 and above figs, including an 89 over this oval. Must use. :ThmbUp:
:9: C Tizz Run- Another Cee's Tizzy firster, this one has been working well and McCarthy has won 3 of his last 5 outings. The sire stats aren't there but, I think this one has potential to fire at first asking. :ThmbUp:
:10: Franconi- 2nd try for the other Matt Chew runner in here. He ran 3rd in his debut, closing 5wide and just missed by a half length. He gets a nice little 5 week freshening works a speed sharpening 4f and a stamina building 7f warmup. Do not ignore. :ThmbUp:
RACE 6 $25k Optional Claiming for Cal bred fillies and mares 3yo & up that have never won $10k other than MCS or which have never won 2 races or claiming price of $25k ($57k purse) 1mile 1/16 Turf
:1: Ashee- Coming out of sprint races, this 4yo Jeff Mullins filly is second off a layoff and stretching out for the first time. Also winless on the turf she just missed going 6f on the grass at Hollywood closing after a slow start. Mullins claimed her for $40k and is running her here NOT for a tag. He had her run two 4f drills and he is such an astute claiming trainer, you just can't ignore her. :ThmbUp:
:2: Powerofvoodoo- Barry Abrams sends out this 6yo daughter of Unusual Heat. This is her second back off a 3month layoff and she is in for the $25k price tag. She is 2 for 44 over the turf and 2 for 50 lifetime. She is a one run closer and she needs the perfect trip to score here. I'm betting that she doesn't get it.
:3: Lazered- SCRATCHED
:4: Caitie's Secret- Fresh off of her maiden victory going today's distance on the grass, comes this 3yo Benchmark filly for Sadler. She won her last race in frontrunning fashion and should be part of the pace today. Never worse than second in her three maiden attempts, she's working nicely in the mornings and figures to be right in the mix in her first attempt versus winners. :ThmbUp:
:5: Magic Launch- Bill Spawr brings this one right back after trying this same condition last time out at HOL. In that race, she led right down to the last call and tired in deep stretch. This is her third try against this tpe of field and second try with Garcia up. She figures to be a part of the pace and I honestly don't think she has the bottom to survive a stretch duel versus this group. She is worth a win bet as a saver at 10:1 on speed figures alone but, not using on pick four ticket.
:6: Road To Reason- McCarthy as we mentioned in the previous race is 3 for his last 5 and brings this one in fresh and gets Rosario as a fill in for Tyler. Her speed figures are steadily rising and her first try against winners was last time out versus this condition and she gave a decent account of herself fading late. I love these lightly raced types and I'm definitely using her, I hope she goes off at a price due to the low profile barn. :ThmbUp:
:7: Warren's Jitterbug- P Val in the irons! It took this one 9 tries to break her maiden but, this 3yo daughter of Affirmative has run just two races since then and they were a GI and a GII. missing by less than a length in the GI on the synthetic at SA and didn't run too poorly in the GII posting a 95 figure. First race back of a 3month layup but, her works are boring. I'm a little scared of her due to her class but, 1 for 11 with 6 2nds give me a bad case of seconditis and I'm going to pass and pray she doesn't beat me.
:8: Silver Heat- Another daughter of Unusual Heat, this 4yo Steve Knapp filly is trying this level for the fourth time. She is yet another one with some early zip and I really don't see any reason why she should rise up to beat these. An exotic possibility but, I cannot envision her on top.
:9: Justice Is Brief- 6yo AC Avila/Omar Berrio mare, she is coming off of a 12 month layoff. The workout tabs look very weak but, if she is able to run back to her 5yo form she can beat these. I respect Avila's prowess with these and I cannot leave off the ticket, even with the long absence. :ThmbUp:
:10: Roxy- Coming out of N2L races in NoCal and running low figures. Three straight frontrunning efforts and getting caught. Now we are asking her to break from the outside and hold the pace? Bill Morey is super capable but, I cannot endorse.
RACE 7 Cougar II Handicap GIII Stakes for 3yo & up 12f Synthetic
:1: Rendezvous- 4yo son of Victory Gallop is a typical VG runner, a stretch running type from Hollendorfer. Rosario gets the leg up. My fear is that there will not be enough pace to run at. He is very classy and a winner of a GII. Jerry's barn has been red hot though, and he takes the blinkers off today which makes me think that he may have him keyed up to be closer to the pace tonight. Expect him to sit off Temple City and respond late. :ThmbUp:
:2: Lifeline- Huge step up in class for this 4yo son on Pulpit. He has run three times since his maiden breaker back in Feb of 2009. It would be a tremendous surprise to step up and beat these.
:3: Unusual Suspect- Another stretch running type, I have the same concerns with him as I do with Rendezvous. He has a win over the oval but, this 6yo looks like his best days may be behind him. He fits on figures but, a do not think today's scenario suits him.
:4: Princess Taylor- Paddy Gallagher brings this one in for his 2nd try in the states. Scanning the form, I can't find his last win. He is a pace consideration but, completely outclassed and would be a surprise. I'd still throw a small win wager if he is totally ignored at the windows, just out of respect for Gallagher.
:5: Richard's Kid- Second off the layoff for Bob Baffert, this 5yo Lemon Drop Kid runner has been banging heads with GI company. He has earned almost $1M in his short career and is working lights out. Looks primed for a score, although the pace scenario is NOT optimal so I cannot single him. :ThmbUp:
:6: Temple City- A bit on the cheap side. Carla Gaines gave this 5yo Dynaformer horse a 10 month layoff and he came back ready and full of speed. His past races are not as classy as the others resumes in here but, his speed cannot be ignored. A real chance to steal it on the front end today. :ThmbUp:
:7: Delightful Kiss- Top earner in the field, this 6yo has amassed just over $1M in his 31 race career. A multiple graded stakes winner who is struggling to find his form. Just like the rest of the 6yo's in here, I am going with the younger legs in this marathon.
RACE 8 $25k Maiden Claiming 3yo & up 1 mile 1/16 Synthetic
:1: Promise No More- Only beaten one horse home in two lifetime starts, I see no reason to get excited over this guy.
:2: No Stadium- Carla Gaines second off layoff and has some speed. Was a beaten favorite first off layoff on the drop from MSW. He may have needed that race and deserves a second chance. :ThmbUp:
:3: Royal Dream- Coming off a five week freshening, this is the first try on the synthetic for the lightly raced 3yo David Hofmans colt. He showed good speed first time on the grass but, then when he tried again a month later he got tired quickly. The combination of the rest and the drop in for a tag should wake him up. A solid chance. :ThmbUp:
:4: One French Kiss- SCRATCHED
:5: Body Builder- Canani has been steadily dropping this guy down to score and he just can't do it. However, he has had excuses. Gate excuses. He broke poorly in both of his last two starts and Julio gave him a 5f drill from the gate and he did just fine, and then two speed sharpening 3f drills. Dangling the carrot at a $22.5k tag as well. If he breaks well, he has a shot. If alive, I'll use as a saver.
:6: Party At My Place- Snatched up by Mike Mitchell in his debut, he broke slowly and was never a factor. The works are nothing special and Mitchell has him right back up for sale after 5 weeks off. The barn is 40% in maiden claimers over a 57 race sample. I cannot allow Mitchell/Garcia to beat me in the finale. :ThmbUp:
:7: Dave's Ruler- Hess and Rosario team up here but, this one has never been supported at the windows. He does drop in for a claim for the first time here and is fresh but, the drills are very eratic and he has never shown any ability. I've got to pass. If alive in pick four and this guy is getting steam... then I'd put over my selections in exactas.
:8: Stimulus Package- Buried in his prior six starts and all versus this bottom level. Would be a shocker.
:9: Hamonic Motion- Went off at 126:1 in debut and ran like it. Gets the 10lb bug Velazquez and comes out of an unknown barn. He would be a shocker as well.
:10: Casa O- Sadler and Bejarano team up with this guy. he stretched out to 9f in his last effort and just missed by a half length. He's back 6 weeks later after a nice rest and should be primed to go get 'em. :ThmbUp:
:11: Lunar Halo- Machowsky is steadily dropping this 4yo Malibu Moon gelding. He didnt run as a 2yo or 3yo and isn't showing much on the track. He passed tired rivals in his last effort which was the first with the blinkers on. The workouts look decent but, we are asking him to stretch out and break the trend of fading speed figures versus a level that he hasn't shown any ability against.
:12: Tizexchange- Neil French 3yo is 0 for 5 and has never hit the board. He might have some bottom because he has run this distance a few times but, he has been as low level as you can be right from the start of his career and showed up first off a layoff last time out with front bandages on. If he is game, he should have a clear run on the outside but, looks very unlikely.
:13: Leyva Man- Anyone who sees my write-ups will notice that I always speak glowingly of Joy Scott. She doesn;t get many mounts but, she always rides her heart out. This cal bred looks like a seconditis type and is 0 for 14. I think the horse is well meant, he has gotten decent support in the past and unlike most of the others he ran as a 2yo and has been battling ever since. He has the bottom to outlast the field and $25k is the cheapest tag he has ever been in for. If this pace falls apart, I'll be lookin' for Joy zooooming by! :ThmbUp:
TICKET
5) 1-8-9-10
6) 1-4-6-9
7) 1-5-6
8) 2-3-6-10-13
$120
Del Mar .50 pick four
RACE 5 $50k MSW for Cal breds 3yo & up 6.5f Synthetic 9pm EST
:1: Cee's Pryme- Carla Gaines first time starter gets Rosario up. Working wonderfully and cannot be ignored. :ThmbUp:
:2: Bobb's N Paradise- Little known barn sends out this firster and the works show nothing special. Would be a surprise.
:3: Full Effect- 0 for 17 Mike Harrington 3yo Swiss Yodeler colt. This is his 11th try as a 3yo. Speed figures are steadily climbing and has hit the board in 6 of last 8 starts. This is not the kind of animal I like to put money on and if he wins, I call it an early night.
:4: Personalitary- Jenine Sahadi first time starter with Martin Garcia up. His workout on July 15th going 5f at SA was pretty darn good but, the last tune-up over the DMR course was very pedestrian. Singletary firsters are 2 for 18 and Sahadi is 0 for 4 with them. I'm going to pass.
:5: Shu Biz Danny- Another Swiss Yodeler horse. This gelding is sent out for the first time for Robert Troeger. A low percentage barn. The works are not that bad but, not eyepopping either. I'd like to see a race first before betting him.
:6: Armenian Star- jame Lloyd first time starter gets Nakatani. The sire is 9% with firsters and the barn is low percentage. The works suggest he may want to go longer. Let's watch a race before plunking down any cash.
:7: Gobbler's Knob- 6yo maiden is 0 for 24 lifetime. He has run some decent numbers but, has been put on the shelf many many times in his career. This guy is always an also ran and if he jumps up and bites me so be it.
:8: Absolutlypositivly- Out of all the runners that have already been to the gate, this one seems most eligible to improve in my opinion. Working bullets for Matt Chew and has run multiple 90 and above figs, including an 89 over this oval. Must use. :ThmbUp:
:9: C Tizz Run- Another Cee's Tizzy firster, this one has been working well and McCarthy has won 3 of his last 5 outings. The sire stats aren't there but, I think this one has potential to fire at first asking. :ThmbUp:
:10: Franconi- 2nd try for the other Matt Chew runner in here. He ran 3rd in his debut, closing 5wide and just missed by a half length. He gets a nice little 5 week freshening works a speed sharpening 4f and a stamina building 7f warmup. Do not ignore. :ThmbUp:
RACE 6 $25k Optional Claiming for Cal bred fillies and mares 3yo & up that have never won $10k other than MCS or which have never won 2 races or claiming price of $25k ($57k purse) 1mile 1/16 Turf
:1: Ashee- Coming out of sprint races, this 4yo Jeff Mullins filly is second off a layoff and stretching out for the first time. Also winless on the turf she just missed going 6f on the grass at Hollywood closing after a slow start. Mullins claimed her for $40k and is running her here NOT for a tag. He had her run two 4f drills and he is such an astute claiming trainer, you just can't ignore her. :ThmbUp:
:2: Powerofvoodoo- Barry Abrams sends out this 6yo daughter of Unusual Heat. This is her second back off a 3month layoff and she is in for the $25k price tag. She is 2 for 44 over the turf and 2 for 50 lifetime. She is a one run closer and she needs the perfect trip to score here. I'm betting that she doesn't get it.
:3: Lazered- SCRATCHED
:4: Caitie's Secret- Fresh off of her maiden victory going today's distance on the grass, comes this 3yo Benchmark filly for Sadler. She won her last race in frontrunning fashion and should be part of the pace today. Never worse than second in her three maiden attempts, she's working nicely in the mornings and figures to be right in the mix in her first attempt versus winners. :ThmbUp:
:5: Magic Launch- Bill Spawr brings this one right back after trying this same condition last time out at HOL. In that race, she led right down to the last call and tired in deep stretch. This is her third try against this tpe of field and second try with Garcia up. She figures to be a part of the pace and I honestly don't think she has the bottom to survive a stretch duel versus this group. She is worth a win bet as a saver at 10:1 on speed figures alone but, not using on pick four ticket.
:6: Road To Reason- McCarthy as we mentioned in the previous race is 3 for his last 5 and brings this one in fresh and gets Rosario as a fill in for Tyler. Her speed figures are steadily rising and her first try against winners was last time out versus this condition and she gave a decent account of herself fading late. I love these lightly raced types and I'm definitely using her, I hope she goes off at a price due to the low profile barn. :ThmbUp:
:7: Warren's Jitterbug- P Val in the irons! It took this one 9 tries to break her maiden but, this 3yo daughter of Affirmative has run just two races since then and they were a GI and a GII. missing by less than a length in the GI on the synthetic at SA and didn't run too poorly in the GII posting a 95 figure. First race back of a 3month layup but, her works are boring. I'm a little scared of her due to her class but, 1 for 11 with 6 2nds give me a bad case of seconditis and I'm going to pass and pray she doesn't beat me.
:8: Silver Heat- Another daughter of Unusual Heat, this 4yo Steve Knapp filly is trying this level for the fourth time. She is yet another one with some early zip and I really don't see any reason why she should rise up to beat these. An exotic possibility but, I cannot envision her on top.
:9: Justice Is Brief- 6yo AC Avila/Omar Berrio mare, she is coming off of a 12 month layoff. The workout tabs look very weak but, if she is able to run back to her 5yo form she can beat these. I respect Avila's prowess with these and I cannot leave off the ticket, even with the long absence. :ThmbUp:
:10: Roxy- Coming out of N2L races in NoCal and running low figures. Three straight frontrunning efforts and getting caught. Now we are asking her to break from the outside and hold the pace? Bill Morey is super capable but, I cannot endorse.
RACE 7 Cougar II Handicap GIII Stakes for 3yo & up 12f Synthetic
:1: Rendezvous- 4yo son of Victory Gallop is a typical VG runner, a stretch running type from Hollendorfer. Rosario gets the leg up. My fear is that there will not be enough pace to run at. He is very classy and a winner of a GII. Jerry's barn has been red hot though, and he takes the blinkers off today which makes me think that he may have him keyed up to be closer to the pace tonight. Expect him to sit off Temple City and respond late. :ThmbUp:
:2: Lifeline- Huge step up in class for this 4yo son on Pulpit. He has run three times since his maiden breaker back in Feb of 2009. It would be a tremendous surprise to step up and beat these.
:3: Unusual Suspect- Another stretch running type, I have the same concerns with him as I do with Rendezvous. He has a win over the oval but, this 6yo looks like his best days may be behind him. He fits on figures but, a do not think today's scenario suits him.
:4: Princess Taylor- Paddy Gallagher brings this one in for his 2nd try in the states. Scanning the form, I can't find his last win. He is a pace consideration but, completely outclassed and would be a surprise. I'd still throw a small win wager if he is totally ignored at the windows, just out of respect for Gallagher.
:5: Richard's Kid- Second off the layoff for Bob Baffert, this 5yo Lemon Drop Kid runner has been banging heads with GI company. He has earned almost $1M in his short career and is working lights out. Looks primed for a score, although the pace scenario is NOT optimal so I cannot single him. :ThmbUp:
:6: Temple City- A bit on the cheap side. Carla Gaines gave this 5yo Dynaformer horse a 10 month layoff and he came back ready and full of speed. His past races are not as classy as the others resumes in here but, his speed cannot be ignored. A real chance to steal it on the front end today. :ThmbUp:
:7: Delightful Kiss- Top earner in the field, this 6yo has amassed just over $1M in his 31 race career. A multiple graded stakes winner who is struggling to find his form. Just like the rest of the 6yo's in here, I am going with the younger legs in this marathon.
RACE 8 $25k Maiden Claiming 3yo & up 1 mile 1/16 Synthetic
:1: Promise No More- Only beaten one horse home in two lifetime starts, I see no reason to get excited over this guy.
:2: No Stadium- Carla Gaines second off layoff and has some speed. Was a beaten favorite first off layoff on the drop from MSW. He may have needed that race and deserves a second chance. :ThmbUp:
:3: Royal Dream- Coming off a five week freshening, this is the first try on the synthetic for the lightly raced 3yo David Hofmans colt. He showed good speed first time on the grass but, then when he tried again a month later he got tired quickly. The combination of the rest and the drop in for a tag should wake him up. A solid chance. :ThmbUp:
:4: One French Kiss- SCRATCHED
:5: Body Builder- Canani has been steadily dropping this guy down to score and he just can't do it. However, he has had excuses. Gate excuses. He broke poorly in both of his last two starts and Julio gave him a 5f drill from the gate and he did just fine, and then two speed sharpening 3f drills. Dangling the carrot at a $22.5k tag as well. If he breaks well, he has a shot. If alive, I'll use as a saver.
:6: Party At My Place- Snatched up by Mike Mitchell in his debut, he broke slowly and was never a factor. The works are nothing special and Mitchell has him right back up for sale after 5 weeks off. The barn is 40% in maiden claimers over a 57 race sample. I cannot allow Mitchell/Garcia to beat me in the finale. :ThmbUp:
:7: Dave's Ruler- Hess and Rosario team up here but, this one has never been supported at the windows. He does drop in for a claim for the first time here and is fresh but, the drills are very eratic and he has never shown any ability. I've got to pass. If alive in pick four and this guy is getting steam... then I'd put over my selections in exactas.
:8: Stimulus Package- Buried in his prior six starts and all versus this bottom level. Would be a shocker.
:9: Hamonic Motion- Went off at 126:1 in debut and ran like it. Gets the 10lb bug Velazquez and comes out of an unknown barn. He would be a shocker as well.
:10: Casa O- Sadler and Bejarano team up with this guy. he stretched out to 9f in his last effort and just missed by a half length. He's back 6 weeks later after a nice rest and should be primed to go get 'em. :ThmbUp:
:11: Lunar Halo- Machowsky is steadily dropping this 4yo Malibu Moon gelding. He didnt run as a 2yo or 3yo and isn't showing much on the track. He passed tired rivals in his last effort which was the first with the blinkers on. The workouts look decent but, we are asking him to stretch out and break the trend of fading speed figures versus a level that he hasn't shown any ability against.
:12: Tizexchange- Neil French 3yo is 0 for 5 and has never hit the board. He might have some bottom because he has run this distance a few times but, he has been as low level as you can be right from the start of his career and showed up first off a layoff last time out with front bandages on. If he is game, he should have a clear run on the outside but, looks very unlikely.
:13: Leyva Man- Anyone who sees my write-ups will notice that I always speak glowingly of Joy Scott. She doesn;t get many mounts but, she always rides her heart out. This cal bred looks like a seconditis type and is 0 for 14. I think the horse is well meant, he has gotten decent support in the past and unlike most of the others he ran as a 2yo and has been battling ever since. He has the bottom to outlast the field and $25k is the cheapest tag he has ever been in for. If this pace falls apart, I'll be lookin' for Joy zooooming by! :ThmbUp:
TICKET
5) 1-8-9-10
6) 1-4-6-9
7) 1-5-6
8) 2-3-6-10-13
$120