My Theory Works Again!

[Mike at A+]

Dow Jones was up about 50 points when Obama's televised speech started and declined steadily as he spoke. He boasted to a largely black audience about how he worked to equalize the penalties for possession of crack cocaine to be more in line with powder cocaine. He badmouthed the Bush administration again (what else is new) and took his typical shots at American businesses. When he was done, the Dow lost close to 90% of its gains and the Nasdaq and S&P went into the red giving up all their gains and more. I've been tracking this theory for over a year now and it is amazingly accurate (close to 90%).

If handicapping horses was this easy, I'd be retired long ago!

[jballscalls]

Dow Jones was up about 50 points when Obama's televised speech started and declined steadily as he spoke. He boasted to a largely black audience about how he worked to equalize the penalties for possession of crack cocaine to be more in line with powder cocaine. He badmouthed the Bush administration again (what else is new) and took his typical shots at American businesses. When he was done, the Dow lost close to 90% of its gains and the Nasdaq and S&P went into the red giving up all their gains and more. I've been tracking this theory for over a year now and it is amazingly accurate (close to 90%).

If handicapping horses was this easy, I'd be retired long ago!

how is this your theory? people said this about Bush when the market starting going bad towards the end of his time and the whole time Obama has been in office, probably goes back to the clinton years

[lamboguy]

how is this your theory? people said this about Bush when the market starting going bad towards the end of his time and the whole time Obama has been in office, probably goes back to the clinton years
every time clinton spoke it went up, and when clinton was out of the country it went down till he got back

[Mike at A+]

how is this your theory? people said this about Bush when the market starting going bad towards the end of his time and the whole time Obama has been in office, probably goes back to the clinton years
How is it my theory? Well, as I have a degree in Mathematics specializing in Probability and Statistics, I would say that I am more than qualified to conduct statistical studies. And since I always have a TV on while I'm working, it's fairly simple for me to gather the statistics necessary to conduct such a study. Judging from the typical contents of an Obama speech during market trading hours (KEYWORD: CONTENTS), it's obvious to me that my theory is valid.

BTW, neither Bush nor Clinton were as predictable as Obama. An Obama speech ALMOST ALWAYS contains some Bush bashing, demonization of American businesses and/or catering to blacks while Clinton and Bush focused more on positive things and solutions to problems that appealed to ALL Americans.

[mostpost]

Dow Jones was up about 50 points when Obama's televised speech started and declined steadily as he spoke. He boasted to a largely black audience about how he worked to equalize the penalties for possession of crack cocaine to be more in line with powder cocaine. He badmouthed the Bush administration again (what else is new) and took his typical shots at American businesses. When he was done, the Dow lost close to 90% of its gains and the Nasdaq and S&P went into the red giving up all their gains and more. I've been tracking this theory for over a year now and it is amazingly accurate (close to 90%).

If handicapping horses was this easy, I'd be retired long ago!
Of course it had nothing to do with the announcement that home foreclosures are up again. You act as if the only time the Dow goes down is when Obama speaks. Seems to me their have been plenty of times when he isn't speaking that it goes down, and times when it goes up.
Maybe we could apply your theory to the last years of the Bush administration. Did the Dow go down every time he spoke? Why, yes it did!!!
And when he didn't speak!!! And when he brushed his teeth!!!! And when he combed his hair!!!!

If you could get something this simple this wrong, I will be sure not to purcahse and A+ thorobreds products.

[GameTheory]

Of course it had nothing to do with the announcement that home foreclosures are up again. You act as if the only time the Dow goes down is when Obama speaks. Seems to me their have been plenty of times when he isn't speaking that it goes down, and times when it goes up.
Maybe we could apply your theory to the last years of the Bush administration. Did the Dow go down every time he spoke? Why, yes it did!!!
And when he didn't speak!!! And when he brushed his teeth!!!! And when he combed his hair!!!!

If you could get something this simple this wrong, I will be sure not to purcahse and A+ thorobreds products.Stereotypical liberal response #5: Make up something that isn't true ("you act as if..."), then condemn that, and then top with a little economic terrorism to taste.

If you have nothing of substance to say, why say anything?

[Mike at A+]

Of course it had nothing to do with the announcement that home foreclosures are up again. You act as if the only time the Dow goes down is when Obama speaks. Seems to me their have been plenty of times when he isn't speaking that it goes down, and times when it goes up.
Maybe we could apply your theory to the last years of the Bush administration. Did the Dow go down every time he spoke? Why, yes it did!!!
And when he didn't speak!!! And when he brushed his teeth!!!! And when he combed his hair!!!!

If you could get something this simple this wrong, I will be sure not to purcahse and A+ thorobreds products.
I think we knew all along that home foreclosures were up. I'm sure I heard it in yesterday's news cycle, long before trading opened today. That aside, I think I was very clear in defining the conditions of my study and my sample includes market performance DURING an Obama televised speech - PERIOD. Using "the last years of the Bush administration" isn't as convincing because of Democrat majorities which CONTRIBUTED to negative market performance. Remember Hillary's infamous quote about oil company profits "I'd take those profits ...". A big red flag goes up over the trading floor on statements like that especially from people that could be the next president. And as I said before, I have been personally tracking this theory for over a year and on many of those days the market was actually up before the speech and down after it. To further support my findings, the market OVERALL is UP over the past year and it is highly unlikely that Obama simply chose bad days to go on the TV.

Regarding A+ Thorobred products, I am quite happy with the clientele I have now. Business is good. And it's good because in the 20 years since I incorporated, I have treated the customer with the utmost respect, I don't make outlandish claims and I provide the support that people expect. So I won't lose any sleep over your closing remarks.

[JustRalph]

Mike, are you saying this drop occurred all during the time Obama was speaking on television? If so........ I find it fascinating and funny..........and I would absolutely understand your theory...........

[Mike at A+]

Yes that's exactly what I'm saying. It was up 50 at the start. When Fox stopped coverage of the speech it was up 5 and he spoke for a while after they cut away (they streamed it live on their website). When he stopped speaking, the Dow was down about 25, a negative swing of 75 points (or about .7%) during the speech. And I contend that it is HIS WORDS that affect the market. Bush bashing, demonization of American businesses and today he played to the audience praising his efforts to decrease penalties for crack cocaine. Very UNpresidential on all counts.

People, this is so freakin obvious that it's amazing that anyone would defend him.

[Native Texan III]

Even Paul the psychic octopus was presumed wrong, even in being right, that is statistically speaking.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/10567735

"An octopus credited with psychic powers has predicted Germany will beat Uruguay on Saturday, taking third place in the World Cup.

Paul, from the Sea Life Aquarium in the western German city of Oberhausen, is also being asked to predict the winners of the World Cup.

He has so far correctly forecast every World Cup game involving Germany."


"It’s definitely time to retire. I and all my profession are being humiliated by the apparent ability of Paul the psychic octopus (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/africa/10567735.stm) to predict the results of Germany’s World Cup matches. I’ve collected an alphabet of letters after my name from 35 years of analysing statistics and making predictions, and yet some soothsaying cephalopod, doubtless with few GCSEs, has got 6 out of 6 correct including the two defeats.
No interviews with Paul are currently available and so we don’t know his thought processes when his Delphic tentacle reaches out and picks the winning team, but he is probably not analysing the data on past performance which forms the basis for most football prediction systems. I recently tried my hand at this (http://news.bbc.co.uk/today/hi/today/newsid_8668000/8668153.stm) and suffered the derision of John Humphreys for my subsequent failure, and analysts at major banks also took time off from their money-making to make World Cup predictions. JP Morgan predicted England to win the Cup (http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/may/18/england-win-world-cup-jp-morgan) (although put Netherlands and Spain as 2nd and 3rd), while UBS, Goldman Sachs and Danske Bank all put Brazil as the most likely winner. Sadly this performance is unlikely to affect their bonuses.

"Most remarkable predictions turn out to due to this kind of selective reporting, and at first I assumed we were only hearing about Paul’s success and not about the hundreds of other sea-creatures picking North Korea as the World Cup winners. But now Paul’s predictions are being publicised beforehand, without any Nostradamic ambiguity. "

http://understandinguncertainty.org/node/775?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+UnderstandingUncertainty+%28U nderstanding+Uncertainty%29

[bigmack]

If you could get something this simple this wrong.
Tell us, Brainiac, what did he get wrong?

[mostpost]

Tell us, Brainiac, what did he get wrong?
Post hoc ergo propter hoc.

(with thanks to Dan Bernstein)

[Robert Goren]

The real question is: Does he back up his theory with cash or does he just post it?

[Mike at A+]

The real question is: Does he back up his theory with cash or does he just post it?
And the real answer is that my wife would probably kill me if I started day trading with our 401-K. She lets me bet the horses, God bless her.

[rastajenk]

Depends on the take-out.

:faint:

[jballscalls]

And the real answer is that my wife would probably kill me if I started day trading with our 401-K. She lets me bet the horses, God bless her.

:ThmbUp: sounds like a good woman!

[Jay Trotter]

I would be very interested in looking at your statistical study -- I'm sure you've included some interesting parameters that a novice such as myself wouldn't have thought of! Please share your spreadsheets.

How is it my theory? Well, as I have a degree in Mathematics specializing in Probability and Statistics, I would say that I am more than qualified to conduct statistical studies. And since I always have a TV on while I'm working, it's fairly simple for me to gather the statistics necessary to conduct such a study. Judging from the typical contents of an Obama speech during market trading hours (KEYWORD: CONTENTS), it's obvious to me that my theory is valid.

BTW, neither Bush nor Clinton were as predictable as Obama. An Obama speech ALMOST ALWAYS contains some Bush bashing, demonization of American businesses and/or catering to blacks while Clinton and Bush focused more on positive things and solutions to problems that appealed to ALL Americans.

[Mike at A+]

I would be very interested in looking at your statistical study -- I'm sure you've included some interesting parameters that a novice such as myself wouldn't have thought of! Please share your spreadsheets.
Sorry, no "spreadsheets". I simply marked an arrow on my calendar pointing up or down on the days he spoke. The criteria was to note the Dow Jones level at the start of his televised speech and at the end. In close to 90% of the times I did this the arrow points down. On many days significantly especially when the anti-business rhetoric was harsh and threats of higher taxes on businesses were mentioned.

[Jay Trotter]

I'm gonna have to call "bullsh*t" on this thread!

Based on your inability to provide your data this is anecdotal heresay only and therefore unreliable at best.

Sorry:ThmbDown:


Sorry, no "spreadsheets". I simply marked an arrow on my calendar pointing up or down on the days he spoke. The criteria was to note the Dow Jones level at the start of his televised speech and at the end. In close to 90% of the times I did this the arrow points down. On many days significantly especially when the anti-business rhetoric was harsh and threats of higher taxes on businesses were mentioned.

[highnote]

I'm gonna have to call "bullsh*t" on this thread!

Based on your inability to provide your data this is anecdotal heresay only and therefore unreliable at best.

Sorry:ThmbDown:


I'll give Mike the benefit of the doubt, but I'd like to see the empirical data. It could be small sample bias or just noise. However, it wouldn't surprise me if it was true. Either way, it doesn't affect me. I trade stocks, not the market.

I do like to get the trend right, though.

When Bush took office on January 22, 2001 the S&P was at $1,342.90.

When Bush left office on January 20, 2009 the S&P was at $805.22 -- down 500+ points.

After 18 months of Obama the S&P is at $1,069.59 -- up over 250 points.

Historically, the stock market has done better with a Democrat in the White House than with a Republican and that's the trend I've been following this time around, too.

[NJ Stinks]

When Bush took office on January 22, 2001 the S&P was at $1,342.90.

When Bush left office on January 20, 2009 the S&P was at $805.22 -- down 500+ points.

After 18 months of Obama the S&P is at $1,069.59 -- up over 250 points.

Historically, the stock market has done better with a Democrat in the White House than with a Republican and that's the trend I've been following this time around, too.

What? The sky is not really falling?

Imagine that.

[mostpost]

[QUOTEMike@A+]Regarding A+ Thorobred products, I am quite happy with the clientele I have now. Business is good. And it's good because in the 20 years since I incorporated, I have treated the customer with the utmost respect, I don't make outlandish claims and I provide the support that people expect. So I won't lose any sleep over your closing remarks.[/QUOTE

Yeah, I've been thinking about my "Closing remarks" and I have decided they were inappropriate. I was trying to be humorous, but it obviously did not come across that way. I'm sure you have a good product. And I have no doubt you are a reliable business man. Anyway, my remarks probably gained you some customers. In case you haven't noticed, not a lot of people here agree with me. :D

Back to your theory. It may be true that the Dow generally falls during an Obama speech. That does not mean the speech is what caused it to fall.
As I said to BigMack earlier: Post hoc ergo propter hoc.

[Mike at A+]

I'm gonna have to call "bullsh*t" on this thread!

Based on your inability to provide your data this is anecdotal heresay only and therefore unreliable at best.

Sorry:ThmbDown:
Call it whatever you like. But I know first hand that my claims are true and whether you believe me or not will not affect my life in the least. But if you're really interested in proving me wrong, you could probably go on the internet and download the intraday index data as well as the dates and times of Obama's speeches and see for yourself.

As for those who point to market performance during the Bush years of 2001 through 2009, you conveniently left out a "little thing" known as 9/11.

And as for mostpost's comment "It may be true that the Dow generally falls during an Obama speech. That does not mean the speech is what caused it to fall", I would agree if it wasn't such a reliable indicator (85-90% according to my observations). But the correlation is overwhelmingly glaring in the world of probability and statistics.

[GameTheory]

Call it whatever you like. But I know first hand that my claims are true and whether you believe me or not will not affect my life in the least. But if you're really interested in proving me wrong, you could probably go on the internet and download the intraday index data as well as the dates and times of Obama's speeches and see for yourself.

As for those who point to market performance during the Bush years of 2001 through 2009, you conveniently left out a "little thing" known as 9/11.

And as for mostpost's comment "It may be true that the Dow generally falls during an Obama speech. That does not mean the speech is what caused it to fall", I would agree if it wasn't such a reliable indicator (85-90% according to my observations). But the correlation is overwhelmingly glaring in the world of probability and statistics.Seems like common sense to me. When the top guy gets on TV and starts railing against "fat cats" there is a reaction. Maybe it is only temporary, and maybe it is not. I don't see why anyone would deny it.

It seems like Obama and his team actually finally realized their words have consequences about a month ago when several prominent business leaders said publicly Obama was "anti-business". Within days Geitner was making the business talk show rounds (Kudlow and others) saying new things like, "we know it is business that creates jobs" -- stuff you've NEVER heard from them. Along with "capital gains is only going up 5%, and the Bush cuts for the lower income brackets won't expire -- don't worry business, we're really on your side!" (You can tell Geitner is very conflicted, because he is much more a free-market person than Obama but is on a short leash.)

[Mike at A+]

Dow down 17 points at start of Obama speech in Detroit.
Dow down 23 points at end of speech.

Nothing drastic but another down arrow to add to my records.

[BlueShoe]

So how can one profit from this? Obvious answer is to short the Dow by buying an inverse ETF such as DOG or DXD just as he walks up to the podium and selling it when he is finished and walks away. Hmmm, wonder how that would work out long term. Since never a day seems to pass without this guy making a speech, sure would get lots of action playing this idea.

[Mike at A+]

So how can one profit from this? Obvious answer is to short the Dow by buying an inverse ETF such as DOG or DXD just as he walks up to the podium and selling it when he is finished and walks away. Hmmm, wonder how that would work out long term. Since never a day seems to pass without this guy making a speech, sure would get lots of action playing this idea.
I know some people who claim to make a living daytrading. I'd much rather bet the horses. But tracking this angle is easy enough as the market numbers are everpresent on the bottom right of the screen while his speeches go on. I noticed the trend well over a year ago and wondered if it was just coincidence. One year later it looks pretty solid to me. But my only market exposure is my 401-K which is well balanced and as I said before, I'd be foolish to start gambling with it given my inexperience.