Top Jockeys

[BELMONT 6-6-09]

Speaking with a buddy who specializes in trifectas and superfectas made a good point in that he looks for top riders that he can use at a price for a key horse in his wagers. He showed me a number of instances when a top rider is ignored by the betting public and finishes in-the-money at huge prices and return double digit (most of the times ) in the place and show position. He says this is an ideal key horse to work around his trifectas and supers.

Interesting point. While looking through a bunch of back forms the evidence is clear and the top riders do get ignored and are live in some races, even though they are higher track program morning line odds of 10/1 or higher.

The hard part is finding the clues to uncover these "live" horses.

[Overlay]

I've found that factoring in the presence of a top rider (not as a stand-alone indicator, but as one part of the overall picture) can potentially make the difference between a non-bettable underlaid wager and a bettable overlaid wager, often (as you note) at good odds or payoffs.

[BELMONT 6-6-09]

I've found that factoring in the presence of a top rider (not as a stand-alone indicator, but as one part of the overall picture) can potentially make the difference between a non-bettable underlaid wager and a bettable overlaid wager, often (as you note) at good odds or payoffs.

The tough part of the handicapping puzzle with some of these horses is that they show little if no indicators they were about to run a good race at the odds. (examples include not dropping in class, no back class indicators, recent form dull, including workouts etc.). I am not saying that every selection is without merit from a positive handicapping stand point, however, it seems that some of the these selections show nothing except why is the top rider(s) taking this mount especially when it is not the regular outfit that he rides for.

[Pell Mell]

The tough part of the handicapping puzzle with some of these horses is that they show little if no indicators they were about to run a good race at the odds. (examples include not dropping in class, no back class indicators, recent form dull, including workouts etc.). I am not saying that every selection is without merit from a positive handicapping stand point, however, it seems that some of the these selections show nothing except why is the top rider(s) taking this mount especially when it is not the regular outfit that he rides for.

I catch a lot of winners in the course of a year using that same angle. The fact that one can see no logical reason why the jock takes the mount is precisely the reason to bet it.

I often wonder what the trainer tells the jock or his agent to convince them to take the mount especially when your sure the jock could have ridden one of the contenders if he wanted.

I do have a few things I research before making these bets because there are a lot of top jocks that take a mount that looks to have no chance and runs just the way he should, nowhere.

The jock move that baffles me is when you see a horse that looks good but the jock who normally rides it takes a different mount and the jock that rode that one jumps on the one that the first jock got off . I see this a lot at tracks in the northwest.:confused:

[BELMONT 6-6-09]

I catch a lot of winners in the course of a year using that same angle. The fact that one can see no logical reason why the jock takes the mount is precisely the reason to bet it.

I often wonder what the trainer tells the jock or his agent to convince them to take the mount especially when your sure the jock could have ridden one of the contenders if he wanted.

I do have a few things I research before making these bets because there are a lot of top jocks that take a mount that looks to have no chance and runs just the way he should, nowhere.

The jock move that baffles me is when you see a horse that looks good but the jock who normally rides it takes a different mount and the jock that rode that one jumps on the one that the first jock got off . I see this a lot at tracks in the northwest.:confused:

I agree. We all know that horses are not machines and they are affected by daily occurances and so on...it seems that what is on paper is not what is real for some of these horses in terms of what is considered winning form.

[thaskalos]

The jock move that baffles me is when you see a horse that looks good but the jock who normally rides it takes a different mount and the jock that rode that one jumps on the one that the first jock got off . I see this a lot at tracks in the northwest.:confused:The jock moves that baffle me...are the ones where a leading jockey is found on a horse that is taking an obviously "negative" class drop for today's race.

A horse gets claimed for $25,000 while running a very good race...only to be found, in it's NEXT START, in a $10,000 claimer...often after a short layoff.

The horse almost always loses - often badly...and at short odds - and I always wonder why leading jockeys accept mounts such as these...

[Robert Goren]

The jock moves that baffle me...are the ones where a leading jockey is found on a horse that is taking an obviously "negative" class drop for today's race.

A horse gets claimed for $25,000 while running a very good race...only to be found, in it's NEXT START, in a $10,000 claimer...often after a short layoff.

The horse almost always loses - often badly...and at short odds - and I always wonder why leading jockeys accept mounts such as these... Money

[Pell Mell]

The jock moves that baffle me...are the ones where a leading jockey is found on a horse that is taking an obviously "negative" class drop for today's race.

A horse gets claimed for $25,000 while running a very good race...only to be found, in it's NEXT START, in a $10,000 claimer...often after a short layoff.

The horse almost always loses - often badly...and at short odds - and I always wonder why leading jockeys accept mounts such as these...

Because horses in that situation are usually trained by one of the leading trainers at the meet.;)

[BELMONT 6-6-09]

The movements of jockeys between mounts can be quite confusing at times and seemingly nothing but an educated quess as to why the top jock would accept a mount. I believe a jock that rides for a smaller outfit is worth note (sometimes?), especially when his contract trainer has a horse in the race.

[1GCFAN]

Perfect example of your post jumped up and bit me Sunday. I bet and left for a trip and thought all the time I was gone of how Dominguez would probaby jump up and knock be out of the Tri.



1 1/16 Miles (Inner turf) | 3 Year Olds And Up | Allowance Optional Claiming ($50,000) | Purse: $55,000

6 Followmyfootsteps Dominguez RA 29.00 12.40 5.40
1 War Hoot Lezcano J 5.50 3.00
9 Mikoshi Leparoux J R 3.00

Times in 5ths: :234 :481 1:122 1:364 1:43

Times in 100ths: :23.87 :48.35 1:12.59 1:36.82 1:43.18

Scratched: Callide Valley, Glenwood Canyon, Midnight Mischief, Retriever and The Roundhouse

Also ran: Rock in Bage (BRZ), Uncle Indy, Conservative, Austintatious, Slambino and Peace Wine

Winning Trainer: Voss Thomas H - Owner: Merriefield Farm

$2 Exacta (6-1) Paid $161.00

$2 Trifecta (6-1-9) Paid $584.00