A second look at the Lady Secret

[Jasonm921]

I made the trek to Monmouth ...purposefully making it there by the 8th race because it was just too damn hot. Masses huddled in the few A/C spots on the track. With that being said if Rachel wasn't there the place would have been closed. Now in regards to the race...at first glance it looked so/so. We can take heat into account but if you look back at the times for the day...that was one SLOW track. I want to see the numbers not just from Beyer but also thorograph on this one, it may be better than it appeared.

[rastajenk]

Looks like she earned a 110. Not bad at all, although it will surely get the Beyer-is-biased crowd whipped into a cappucino-like froth. :)

[cj]

Looks like she earned a 110. Not bad at all, although it will surely get the Beyer-is-biased crowd whipped into a cappucino-like froth. :)

My opinion is that is a horrible figure.

[Jasonm921]

100 Degree day.....How many horse have received a 110 Beyer in the past two years.

[Jasonm921]

If she would have won by 20 lengths her Beyer would have been in the upper 120's.

[Bullet Plane]

If Rachel received 110, then that would give Queen Martha a 105, which seems very high for that filly- her last was a 92, albeit on turf. It would also give Ask the Moon a 92 which would be an eight point top over anything she's been able to run in the last two years.

On the other hand, Rachel is certainly capable of attaining that figure.

[Jasonm921]

PS my photos are up on my site if any one is interested.

[Robert Goren]

100 Degree day.....How many horse have received a 110 Beyer in the past two years. It was a 100 degree day for the others horses too. Beyers is a comparative number to how fast the other horses ran. A 110 Beyers means she ripped the other horses running at Mth yesterday a new one. I will leave others to judge whether she did that.

[The_Knight_Sky]

PS my photos are up on my site if any one is interested.



My photographic efforts will not match Jay's, so I took a series of video clips.

1) Rachel's arrival
2) The post parade
3) The stretch run with Mr. Asmussen
4) The winners circle celebration

Hoping the heatwave subsides by next weekend.
It's been uncomfortable in the grandstands which is mostly not winterized,
or I should say "summerized".

http://i27.tinypic.com/fmj2o9.jpg (http://theknightskyracing.blogspot.com/2010/07/videography-rachels-ladys-secret-stakes.html)

http://theknightskyracing.blogspot.com/2010/07/videography-rachels-ladys-secret-stakes.html

[Grits]

http://www.drf.com/news/article/115098.html

Remaining at home for awhile. The last paragraph of the story is great!

Rachel Alexandra looked quite healthy when she came off the horse van just before 9 a.m. Sunday. After a brief visit to her stall - where she buried her head in a bucket of water - she took a stroll around the walking ring to get her bath and then took a few more turns before
returning to her stall where she perched herself at the back to look out a window.

I love this horse.:lol:
Smart girl that she is--she knows how to dismiss the masses.:lol:

[classhandicapper]

My opinion is that is a horrible figure.

I concur and hinted at that last night, but I didn't want to throw any fuel on a fire before I took a better look and had a chance to discuss it with you a little.

[Grits]

Knight Sky, WOW, thanks so much for posting. Fine videos!

Still love the white in those eyes!! One can't see them as well watching the live feed on TVG.

Thanks again.:ThmbUp:

[The_Knight_Sky]

Knight Sky, WOW, thanks so much for posting. Fine videos!

Still love the white in those eyes!! One can't see them as well watching the live feed on TVG.

Thanks again.:ThmbUp:


Thanks for stopping by.
That's the best I could do with a Point-n-Shoot camera.

I thought I saw Ernie Munick in the paddock,
so I'll be waiting for a HD version from him in a few days.
But for now... Mr. Asmussen signing my program - a Monmouth Park tradition ;)
http://i29.tinypic.com/25p6zpu.jpg

[46zilzal]

My opinion is that is a horrible figure.
not to mention her lugging in

[Jasonm921]

This was addressed. She ran straight the other filly came out.

[joanied]

jason & the Knight Sky...thanks so much for the videos and the photos:ThmbUp: :jump:

I thought Rachel looks maginficent in the paddock...she seemed pretty cool, although, no doubt, every horse was suffering the heat...I really liked the way calvin had her on a loose rein down the backstretch, just like he's done with her so many times...she was just galloping on her own, and seemed very happy...Calvin did just enough to put a little daylight between Rachel and the others...which was perfect.
She:jump: won...and I thought except for maybe she turned her head out just a tiny bit (although someone else did say the other horse was coming out), that she looked great...ran straight and true. Too bad the track was playing so slow all day...but I read she did the last in 12 and a tick.

She's baaaaaack:)

[JeremyJet]

My opinion is that is a horrible figure.

What do you come up with, CJ? The field was strung out, so a big figure makes sense.

Regards,

JeremyJet

[Hedevar]

What do you come up with, CJ? The field was strung out, so a big figure makes sense.

Regards,

JeremyJet

Jeremy Jet,

Do you get your name from the classy Illinois Bred from back in the day?

[PhantomOnTour]

She got a 105

[JeremyJet]

Jeremy Jet,

Do you get your name from the classy Illinois Bred from back in the day?

Yes, I'm old school.

Regards,

JeremyJet

[JeremyJet]

She got a 105

Who got a 105? RACHEL? They changed it?

Regards,

JeremyJet

[Spendabuck85]

Who got a 105? RACHEL? They changed it?

Regards,

JeremyJet


From DRF.com:
Rachel Alexandra received a 105 Beyer Speed Figure -adjusted from a preliminary figure of 110 - for the effort.

http://www.drf.com/news/article/115098.html

[WinterTriangle]

Knight Sky, great vids.

Also, the photo you have at the top of your page of Belmont is fantastic! it really captures a whole lot, like being there, people in background under trees, horses, beautiful flower gardens, everything. Perfect perspective.

I don't mind saying I would have liked a RA T-shirt. :) Anyone know what they looked like?

Not surprised she was looking out back window...she is not a gregarious horse, from what I read about her personality, she is somewhat a loner, rather inward looking/self-contained, not to get athropormorphic. ;)

[Grits]

Knight Sky, oh my goodness. You didn't only do well with Rach, you got the sport's best looking trainer, too. Steve's so easy on the eyes. And I've heard more women say this, so I know I'm not alone here.

Still, he's got to shed some pounds. Your video of him walking from the stands, he's lookin' pudgy. Putting on weight and it ain't lookin' good. He's young, in his forties, he doesn't wanna start putting it on this early.

Please KS, next time he's at Monmouth, pass him a message from his female watchers--
"Steve, give it a rest with the carbs and other fats or you're gonna have to take up jogging alongside Rachel in the a.m.":faint:

You fellas, can say all you want about that jockey . . . that Italian chick. The ladies have favorites in the sport, too.

[cj]

What do you come up with, CJ? The field was strung out, so a big figure makes sense.

Regards,

JeremyJet

In my opinion, even a 105 is pushing it. It gives the winners of the the other two routes career bests by 8 and 11 points. I did expect both improved a little, but not that much.

It also gives the third horse to Rachel an 87, a number she had not reached in her previous 9 starts since returning from a layoff and turning 4. However, it is much more reasonable than a 110.

5 points might not seem like that big a deal, but at 1 1/8 miles it is nearly three lengths.

[JeremyJet]

I appreciate the heads-up. Thanks.

Regards,

JeremyJet

[Jasonm921]

Was Andy scared that he was going to catch some heat for the 110 so he bowed down to the Zenyatta crowd and lowered it? How do you give a number and then 12 hours later change it? Is this the dosage index? Should be an exact mathematical formula.

[cj]

Was Andy scared that he was going to catch some heat for the 110 so he bowed down to the Zenyatta crowd and lowered it? How do you give a number and then 12 hours later change it? Is this the dosage index? Should be an exact mathematical formula.

Part of it is, the science, and part of it is art. He didn't just change the Lady's Secret, he changed all the route races on the card I would guess. I'd recommending reading Picking Winners if you don't understand figure making. Even if you don't use Beyer figures, it will help you understand the strengths and weaknesses of figures.

[Jasonm921]

The science is based on time/class/distance compared with the time/class/distance of the rest of the card. This should be somewhat static. If you want to add variants for wide turns (ie. Thorograph) that is fine but it seems a five point change is a bit much.

[sandpit]

Was Andy scared that he was going to catch some heat for the 110 so he bowed down to the Zenyatta crowd and lowered it? How do you give a number and then 12 hours later change it? Is this the dosage index? Should be an exact mathematical formula.

I asked him at a seminar once about adjusting figures, and he said is not all that uncommon, particularly if a race is the only one at the distance/surface for the day. I can't imagine he looked at Zenyatta's numbers and used that as a factor for determining RA's final figure.

[Bullet Plane]

The science is based on time/class/distance compared with the time/class/distance of the rest of the card. This should be somewhat static. If you want to add variants for wide turns (ie. Thorograph) that is fine but it seems a five point change is a bit much.

His preliminary guess would be based on his projections for the race. After they see who actually wins, they have to go back and adjust those projections. The time/class/distance just gets you pre-preliminary figures.

It's always an educated guess. So, sometimes there is a question or uncertainty about the final figures. So, then, they have to go back and adjust some of the figures after the horses run again.

I like the Davidowitz book on the subject. And, as has already been mentioned, the Beyer books are great too.

I dabble in it, but don't have the kind of time it takes to make my own speed figures. I barely get time to handicap. But, one of the big reasons I like to follow this board is because CJ often has some excellent takes on the speed figures.

[Tom]

Was Andy scared that he was going to catch some heat for the 110 so he bowed down to the Zenyatta crowd and lowered it? How do you give a number and then 12 hours later change it? Is this the dosage index? Should be an exact mathematical formula.

He does it because he is good, and because he pays attention to details. The 110 was preliminary - on Saturday night. I don't think anyone ran back in the meantime.

[classhandicapper]

What do you come up with, CJ? The field was strung out, so a big figure makes sense.

Regards,

JeremyJet

The problem with the "strung out" theory of making figures is that dominant speed types tend to "put away" inferior horses running with them or chasing them because a superior horse can set a very fast pace or make a very fast move while racing well within itself but that pace is way too fast for the inferior horses.

Imagine yourself chasing a world class miler's pace for the first quarter of a mile. I don't know about you, but I would have to go all out just to stay in touch and wouldn't even finish the race even though when traveling at an appropriate pace for me I could easily finish the mile. Same thing.

So when figure makers look at past figures and make projections, if they don't have a reasonable way of estimating the pace and it's impact on the inferior horses in situations like this, they tend to vastly overrate the dominant winner because they can't understand how the other horses could possibly run that slow (therefore they project a super fast race to bring the others into line). The reality is that they often did run that slow because they were torched, but not because their ability changed.

I hope that makes sense because it's a huge issue for some figure makers that causes them to inflate figures in some instances.

[classhandicapper]

From DRF.com:
Rachel Alexandra received a 105 Beyer Speed Figure -adjusted from a preliminary figure of 110 - for the effort.

http://www.drf.com/news/article/115098.html

More logical give or take. :ThmbUp:

[JustRalph]

I hope the 2nd place horse runs on Dirt next time and I am very interested in what kind of performance that horse throws next out.

[horses4courses]

I hope the 2nd place horse runs on Dirt next time and I am very interested in what kind of performance that horse throws next out.

Automatic alibi exists for a poor performance next out.
Bounce theory has it covered, ala Zardana.

[Kimsus]

Automatic alibi exists for a poor performance next out.
Bounce theory has it covered, ala Zardana.

We need guys like JustRalph in the game, you know the wiseguy money, don't help him too much. He was impressed, let's hope he puts money on it next time she runs.

[Fager Fan]

The science is based on time/class/distance compared with the time/class/distance of the rest of the card. This should be somewhat static. If you want to add variants for wide turns (ie. Thorograph) that is fine but it seems a five point change is a bit much.

Think 5 points is a bit much? Did you see what they did with Blind Luck's Delaware Oaks? It was 115 and he knocked it down 20 points.

[OntheRail]

We need guys like JustRalph in the game, you know the wiseguy money, don't help him too much. He was impressed, let's hope he puts money on it next time she runs.

Funny Rachel's not in the race Queen Martha wins by 11... she ran a respectable race and you'd be all up on her about her win. Well maybe not as RA seems to be your lighting rod. ;)

[horses4courses]

My post wasn't directed at Ralph.
The runner-up to Rachel yesterday (forgive me, but I've forgotten her name), may well turn into a high class mare. I have my doubts.

What I do know is this, though.
Anyone who has accused Zenyatta of beating-up on tomato cans needs to realize that Rachel has done some catching up in that category this year.

I won't hold it against connections of any potential champion picking their spots leading up to the BC. It all about who gets the marbles that day.

Judging by appearances, though, I doubt that Camp Z is losing any sleep.

[JustRalph]

We need guys like JustRalph in the game, you know the wiseguy money, don't help him too much. He was impressed, let's hope he puts money on it next time she runs.

What in the sam hell are you talking about ? Was I not clear enough? We are talking about the figure given to RA , in this thread, and watching how the 2nd place runner comes back based on the number she earned yesterday, may or may not validate the number given to Rachel.

Did everybody else get the inference I made in the post ? Or was I too vague?

I in no way was advocating betting on the damn horse (who's name escapes me) but I was suggesting that if she runs back near the number from yesterday, that it may validate that she improved on Dirt from her previous outings which I believe were in Europe etc...........therefore providing some provenance to the Beyer's awarded. As to your wisecrack
He was impressed, let's hope he puts money on it next time she runs.

I have only been playing about 9 yrs but I do pretty damn good....... I don't make figures etc...... but for the record........kiss my ass!!

[Fager Fan]

The horses who have beaten Rachel (or finished near) have all come back to run well next out.

Martha had 1 start here prior, on turf, getting a 92. She's a Rahy, and the best Rahy ever was the dirt runner Serena's Song.

[The_Knight_Sky]

Knight Sky, great vids.

Also, the photo you have at the top of your page of Belmont is fantastic!

it really captures a whole lot, like being there, people in background
under trees, horses, beautiful flower gardens, everything. Perfect perspective.



Thank you so much. I think I got lucky with that one.
That was taken on Champagne Stakes Day at Belmont Park 2008.
The stars aligned perfectly for that.

Even a balding degenerate PA member entered that scene.
If it weren't for that paddock, Belmont Park would be a very boring place
to take pictures, IMHO.





I don't mind saying I would have liked a RA T-shirt. :)
Anyone know what they looked like?



I have one. I haven't taken pics of it though.
But I may and I might. :D

[The_Knight_Sky]

Please KS, next time he's at Monmouth, pass him a message from his female watchers--

"Steve, give it a rest with the carbs and other fats or you're gonna
have to take up jogging alongside Rachel in the a.m.":faint:




So basically you want me to put my life on the line.

I'm only in the welterweight division. http://i29.tinypic.com/2qs4f47.gif FYI