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Valuist
08-16-2003, 10:15 AM
Sunny, very hot and humid conditions

Leg 1: Beverly D
Going to go 3 deep to ensure being alive in the first leg. I think Dublino is the horse to beat, having closed strongly against a slow pace vs good fields. The UK bookmakers are giving Walzerkoenigin more respect than the US bettors so she could be value. I'm tempted to toss Heat Haze but it is Frankel. It should be pointed out Frankel is at Saratoga to saddle Spoken Fur.

(3,5,7)

Leg 2: NW1X
On paper, Duchossois' horse Without a Doubt looks to be the best but he has been a bit of a hanger, losing photos in his last 2, including at 3-10 odds. Price of Honour has the best chance of the others to beat Without a Doubt. Amoss is winning at 27% on the year and 31% in sprints. Whiting's horse could be dangerous off the layoff and Dylan's my Name is off a lifetime top # but I have to take a stand somewhere.

(10,11)

Leg 3: Million
I originally was thinking of singling Sulamani but the foot bruise and relative lack of respect by the UK bookmakers has made think twice about that. Storming Home is the top US horse (of a weak US turf division) but he is better suited (3 for 3) to 10 furlongs than Sulamani. Paolini finished 6th but beaten just a 1/2 length in last years after getting into traffic trouble in the stretch. And if Paolini has a chance, you have to use Olden Times, who finished in front of him at Ascot in June. Perfect Drift might be the best horse in the US....but thats on dirt. He's still unproven, IMO, on turf

(1,3,4,13)

Leg 4: Secretariat

Wide open race but I'm playing against a couple of favorites. I thought Evolving Tactics had a perfect trip being near a very slow pace and now has shipped back to the US from Ireland for the 2nd time in 27 days. I'm also leery of France (not just the country, either) who has never won past 7 furlongs. I think the horse to beat is Just Wonder, coming off an impressive win in the Cinema where he may have moved too soon and still won. The other horse I like is Californian, who spotted Evolving Tactics two lengths after a very slow 1:17 6f fraction then closed to be beaten only a neck. Gary Stevens replaces Desormeux, who is on Just Wonder

(6,9)

total ticket: (3,5,7) with (10,11) with (1,3,4,13) with (6,9) 48 tickets

Tennessee
08-16-2003, 10:43 AM
Thanks for the analysis, valueman.

I think Dylan's my name may repeat his last effort; it occurred with new trainer..but he's moving up the class ladder today and i think price of honor's the play. i'm not crazy about without a doubt but i can't just toss him.

ponyplayer
08-16-2003, 01:00 PM
My Arlington p4
8th - #3 Heat Haze, #7 Walzerkoenigin
9th - #10 Price of Honor, #2 Dove Above, #4 Prado Wells
10th - #4 Storming Home, #10 The Tin Man, #3 Paolini
11th - #3 Evolving Tactics, #1 Lismore Knight, #5 Bis Repetitas

$54 Bucks

Valuist
08-16-2003, 01:45 PM
Since Without a Doubt has been scratched from the 9th, I'm replacing him in the Pic 4 with Dove Above.

Tennessee-

Dylans My Name also was scratched out of the 9th.

freeneasy
08-16-2003, 03:38 PM
8th
#3 heat haze +
#5 dublino +
#7 walzerkoenigin

9th
#2 dove above
#4 prado wells
#6 afleet loyd
#10 price of honor +
#12 bold prospect
#13 sheridan lake

10th
#1 sulamani ++
#3 paolini
#4 storming home +
#10 the tin man +
#11 honor in war +

11th
#1 lismore knight +
#2 foufa's warrior
#4 france, screw france
#9 just wonder +

2,5,7 / 2,4,6,10,12,13 / 1 / 1,2,4,9 / $72

freeneasy
08-16-2003, 03:42 PM
3,5, / 10 / 1,4,10,11 / 1,9 / $16

linrom1
08-16-2003, 04:59 PM
Million

Olden Times gets his picture taken at +30/1.

Pefect Drift looks giant in this race also if the favorite Sulamani has an off day and Ken takes the scenic route.

Would like to play the P4, but, it looks like a set-up in the 9th for the locals to take the pot home.