The Lady's Secret

[Sericm]

Apparently Rachel Alexandar will be facing another bunch of tomoto cans in the Lady's Secret Saturday.

It will be interesting to know if the lack of competition will prepare her properly for the Breeder's Cup.

[cj]

I made it my "Race of the Week" (http://www.pacefigures.com/ROTW/Mth100724) for this week...not a good betting race obviously but I'm still a fan.

[Speed Figure]

I made it my "Race of the Week" (http://www.pacefigures.com/ROTW/Mth100724) for this week...not a good betting race obviously but I'm still a fan.
If Zenyatta was running in this race and not Rachel, you would have NEVER made it the race of the week!

[cj]

If Zenyatta was running in this race and not Rachel, you would have NEVER made it the race of the week!

Wrong, but nice try. She has been Race of the Week several times.

[thaskalos]

I made it my "Race of the Week" (http://www.pacefigures.com/ROTW/Mth100724) for this week...not a good betting race obviously but I'm still a fan. If Zenyatta was running instead of Rachel...you might still have made it "Race of the Week"...but would you still be a fan? :)

[cj]

If Zenyatta was running instead of Rachel...you might still have made it "Race of the Week"...but would you still be a fan? :)

I certainly don't dislike a horse as I've said many times. I'm no fan of the surface she runs on primarily, but I blame that on the connections along with the pathetic schedule she has run.

[Speed Figure]

Looks like anytime she was featured it always says Rachel/Zenyatta.

[sandpit]

This is a bigger walkover than RA's first two races this year. She may win this heat by a wider margin than Soumillion did on that G1 jumper last month in France.

If someone can find me a worse race worth $400K, please do so.

Here's the field:
Stage Trick - 3x winner at Philly Park 2 back, did manage 3rd in the G3 Obeah
Queen Martha - 2x loser has never started on the dirt
Ask the Moon - knocked out a whopping 58 Beyer at Monmouth last out, is 1-for-9 at the track
Hark - has one third place finish, in alw company, in 5 starts this year...ugh
Fabulous Babe - was third for in a $35K claimer two back...dbl ugh
Yes She's a Lady - a bench warmer in Pletcher's barn...need 9 furlongs about as much as her sire Yes It's True.

I hope she wins by 100 lengths.

As the old racetrack saying goes, "Keep yourself in the best company and your horse in the worst."

[cj]

Looks like anytime she was featured it always says Rachel/Zenyatta.

I don't remember the names of all her races to be honest, but I think there was one without her. Maybe I'm wrong, but I'll be sure to feature her later.

[cj]

This is a bigger walkover than RA's first two races this year. She may win this heat by a wider margin than Soumillion did on that G1 jumper last month in France.



I agree, it is almost as bad as some of Zenyatta's races this year. Oh wait, I forgot, St. Trinian's is an alleged world beater now.

[thaskalos]

I agree, it is almost as bad as some of Zenyatta's races this year. Oh wait, I forgot, St. Trinian's is an alleged world beater now. This is bait...but the Zenyatturds won't bite...

[Sericm]

Why is this turning into a Rachel/Zenyatta thread.

The question was: Do you thing this is the proper way to set her up for the Breeders cup? It has nothing to do with Zenyatta.

[tucker6]

The question was: Do you thing this is the proper way to set her up for the Breeders cup? It has nothing to do with Zenyatta.
Why not?? It worked for Zenyatta last year, so it has everything to do with Zenyatta.. Rachel is imitating greatness...

[classhandicapper]

This is pretty much as pathetically weak a spot as she could run in without embarrassing someone. It looks pretty bad anyway though because they are training at Saratoga and they are specifically "shipping out" for this spot when there will be opportunities in Saratoga.

But IMO, it's a very logical move. The purse is attractive, the race won't take anything out of her, and they don't have to ship very far to get her there.

Rachel's connections have obviously learned something from watching the brilliant management of Zenyatta.

If you start your horse's campaign off fairly early in the year, the only way you are going to have a horse that's peaking and 100% for the Breeder's Cup is to space the races, avoid distant shipping, and avoid a series of difficult spots. There is no reason to squeeze the lemon dry now chasing colts or other high quality fillies/mares if the goal is the Breeder's Cup.

[PaceAdvantage]

But IMO, it's a very logical move. The purse is attractive, the race won't take anything out of her, and they don't have to ship very far to get her there.It might be logical, but it is going to backfire sooner or later for whatever camp continues to utilize this "method."

You won't get to 100% by racing against shockingly inferior competition.

[alhattab]

It might be logical, but it is going to backfire sooner or later for whatever camp continues to utilize this "method."

You won't get to 100% by racing against shockingly inferior competition.

None of this matters. With the heat and storms expected here Saturday on the Jersey Shore coupled with Monmouth's luck (e.g., 2007 BC, last year's Haskell, announcement that the Gov thinks Monmouth's worth about two dead flies right smack in the middle of The Experiement and right before the biggest events of the year), any one of the following will likely occur:

1) they will cancel the card due to the heat
2) she will scratch or
3)

[Brogan]

None of this matters. With the heat and storms expected here Saturday on the Jersey Shore coupled with Monmouth's luck (e.g., 2007 BC, last year's Haskell, announcement that the Gov thinks Monmouth's worth about two dead flies right smack in the middle of The Experiement and right before the biggest events of the year), any one of the following will likely occur:

1) they will cancel the card due to the heat
2) she will scratch or
3)
You paint such a rosy picture.

[BluegrassProf]

Word from trackside: plenty of heat-related issues for runners @ Monmouth this PM, incl. heatstroke. Delaware = closed, obviously. Saratoga, on the other hand, looks nice and damp...

Safe trip to all.

[BluegrassProf]

Saratoga, on the other hand, looks nice and damp...Check that...Spa doesn't look so bad now. DMC seemed comfy enough.

[Tom]

I thought so, too. YouBet has Toga listed as FAST???

The 4 here at Monmouth looks drenched!

[WinterTriangle]

If you start your horse's campaign off fairly early in the year, the only way you are going to have a horse that's peaking and 100% for the Breeder's Cup is to space the races, avoid distant shipping, and avoid a series of difficult spots. There is no reason to squeeze the lemon dry now chasing colts or other high quality fillies/mares if the goal is the Breeder's Cup.

That seems like common sense.


Dunno if the BCC is the "goal" for RA....have the connections said that yet?

If so, this kind of campaign DOES make sense....for any horse who's goal is the BCC, whether that be Rachel, QR, Rail Trip, Zen, etc.

Congrats to Rachel Alexandra for winning today. Any bridgejumper who put even $2 on her to show was throwing their money down the toilet.

[tzipi]

Apparently Rachel Alexandar will be facing another bunch of tomoto cans in the Lady's Secret Saturday.

It will be interesting to know if the lack of competition will prepare her properly for the Breeder's Cup.

what's the point anymore. No one can run anywhere without there trashing going on.

[tzipi]

Apparently Rachel Alexandar will be facing another bunch of tomoto cans in the Lady's Secret Saturday.

It will be interesting to know if the lack of competition will prepare her properly for the Breeder's Cup.

To add on to it. Zenyatta runs against no one but "tomato cans" too ducking the top male races out there all the time,unless you count a polyturf race against turf horses as a real Breedes Cup "dirt" race. I can imagine the posts years ago when Ruffian was facing the same girls race after race and dint face the boys. Different world today with the internet. :)

[PaceAdvantage]

That seems like common sense.


Dunno if the BCC is the "goal" for RA....have the connections said that yet?

If so, this kind of campaign DOES make sense....for any horse who's goal is the BCC, whether that be Rachel, QR, Rail Trip, Zen, etc.I disagree completely. Running strictly against cream puffs until the big dance is a horrible way to prepare your horse to give 110% when it counts the most.

[sandpit]

I disagree completely. Running strictly against cream puffs until the big dance is a horrible way to prepare your horse to give 110% when it counts the most.

Exactly, nearly every top-class horse needs something to push them before their biggest test. (for those who are thinking of bringing up Zenyatta, her pace-disadvantaged running style and Mike Smith taking her to the outside fence most of the time are plenty to push her). Bernardini comes to mind a couple years ago. He had everything so easy against outclassed competition throughout the year, but when he looked Invasor in the eye, he had no answer.

[classhandicapper]

It might be logical, but it is going to backfire sooner or later for whatever camp continues to utilize this "method."

You won't get to 100% by racing against shockingly inferior competition.

Trying to stay fresh until fall didn't hurt Zenyatta's camp in the last two Breeder's Cups. In case you forgot, she won both of times. If that's the wrong way to get to the end of the year ready for a peak performance, two successes like that make for quite an aberration. :lol:

However, I disagree with your premise entirely. She didn't race against shockingly inferior competition. She's was simply vastly superior to solid competition that was much better than many are giving them credit for. It's not my fault that so many people still can't grasp the fact that the tools and measurements that are useful on dirt are not valid or comparable to those on turf and synthetic.

Taking it to the opposite extreme and shipping around to take on the best horses in the country (in her case Grade 1 older colts) etc... would have been suicidal. The evidence of what that kind of campaign does to a horse is apparent throughout the racing record. Many don't make it to the end of the year and of the remainder many are no longer 100% by year end. There are exceptions, but it's a stupid way to try to win the Breeder's Cup - especially with a mare against colts.

I am sure Rachel's connections are smart enough to plan a much easier campaign this time around because they have the year end goal of the BC. They won't try to maximize her accomplishments during the year like last year and be forced to stop on her when the lemon is dry. They'll keep her fresh, fit, against fillies and mares, and ready to fire a peak in the fall.

[classhandicapper]

Exactly, nearly every top-class horse needs something to push them before their biggest test. (for those who are thinking of bringing up Zenyatta, her pace-disadvantaged running style and Mike Smith taking her to the outside fence most of the time are plenty to push her). Bernardini comes to mind a couple years ago. He had everything so easy against outclassed competition throughout the year, but when he looked Invasor in the eye, he had no answer.

You don't want a horse walking around the track every time, but you don't want gut wrenching taxing efforts either.

[cpitt84]

I disagree completely. Running strictly against cream puffs until the big dance is a horrible way to prepare your horse to give 110% when it counts the most.

I think her last two races were more about giving confidence to her owners/trainers and fans than anything.

Unfortunately, this heat has made it difficult for horses to really prove themselves.

[tzipi]

A couple of the top horses last races were against cream puffs. Why is RA getting busted on?

[cpitt84]

A couple of the top horses last races were against cream puffs. Why is RA getting busted on?

I guess Horse of the Year requires different standards. Although her two losses in the beginning granted an easier race.

[tzipi]

I guess Horse of the Year requires different standards. Although her two losses in the beginning granted an easier race.

Man, I wish the internet was out when all the other greats in history lost close races(sometimes back to back) off their layoffs.

[WinterTriangle]

I disagree completely. Running strictly against cream puffs until the big dance is a horrible way to prepare your horse to give 110% when it counts the most.

So you think Rachel should have taken on a sturdier race then.......

[PaceAdvantage]

So you think Rachel should have taken on a sturdier race then.......Not at all. I think another easy race was called for given she lost her first two and only had her first win last time out.

[PaceAdvantage]

Trying to stay fresh until fall didn't hurt Zenyatta's camp in the last two Breeder's Cups. In case you forgot, she won both of times. If that's the wrong way to get to the end of the year ready for a peak performance, two successes like that make for quite an aberration. :lol:Yes, I forgot she won the BC Distaff and BC Classic. Thanks for reminding me. :rolleyes:

Luckily for her, she is dominant on that surface. Against similar Grade 1 competition on dirt (more likely superior and not similar), I think the 100% cream puff prep route will be one of the things that breaks her streak.However, I disagree with your premise entirely. She didn't race against shockingly inferior competition.Of course she did, for the vast majority of her races. Come on...at least admit that...It's not my fault that so many people still can't grasp the fact that the tools and measurements that are useful on dirt are not valid or comparable to those on turf and synthetic.But we've used those tools for Zenyatta twice on dirt, and again came up far short of "best evah" status...and we found ourselves (well, you found yourself) making other excuses as to why this just doesn't apply to Zenyatta. Her rather ordinary (and in one case, just abysmally slow) dirt numbers gather nothing but more excuses. Dirt or synthetic, it doesn't seem to matter.Taking it to the opposite extreme and shipping around to take on the best horses in the country (in her case Grade 1 older colts) etc... would have been suicidal. The evidence of what that kind of campaign does to a horse is apparent throughout the racing record. Many don't make it to the end of the year and of the remainder many are no longer 100% by year end. There are exceptions, but it's a stupid way to try to win the Breeder's Cup - especially with a mare against colts.Are we going to repeat all this again? Certainly I never advocated shipping around and taking on the best horses in the country race after race. Nobody would advocate that. Even Rachel's camp did not do that last year. They had some easy races thrown in every now and then...(all the wise asses can now chime in "You mean like the Woodward?")

[PhantomOnTour]

The sad thing is that if Rachel and Zen ever do race each other it will only be once. We had higher hopes earlier in the year. If this 'rivalry' took place 20-30 yrs ago they would have met more than once already.

[Shelby]

I was impressed by Queen Martha. At least she kept the race interesting for a bit.

[classhandicapper]

Yes, I forgot she won the BC Distaff and BC Classic. Thanks for reminding me. :rolleyes:

Luckily for her, she is dominant on that surface. Against similar Grade 1 competition on dirt (more likely superior and not similar), I think the 100% cream puff prep route will be one of the things that breaks her streak.Of course she did, for the vast majority of her races. Come on...at least admit that...But we've used those tools for Zenyatta twice on dirt, and again came up far short of "best evah" status...and we found ourselves (well, you found yourself) making other excuses as to why this just doesn't apply to Zenyatta. Her rather ordinary (and in one case, just abysmally slow) dirt numbers gather nothing but more excuses. Dirt or synthetic, it doesn't seem to matter.Are we going to repeat all this again? Certainly I never advocated shipping around and taking on the best horses in the country race after race. Nobody would advocate that. Even Rachel's camp did not do that last year. They had some easy races thrown in every now and then...(all the wise asses can now chime in "You mean like the Woodward?")

I'm not going to readdress all your points because we've been down this path multiple times. I'll just make a few comments and leave it at that.

I used to hate synthetic racing. For years I was also very lukewarm about turf racing because to me the results weren't consistent with my knowledge of dirt racing.

The one thing that synthetic racing forced me to do was to use all my energy to understand it better because so many high level horses were crossing back and forth between dirt and synthetic, turf and synthetic etc... and the comparable pace and final time figures were obviously all gibberish. I rarely had that problem with just dirt and turf because there are fewer crossovers.

It probably took me a little longer for much of it to sink in than some people that were more experienced and successful with turf handicapping, but when it finally did it set off so many pace/final time light bulbs I can't count them all. Synthetic racing was a blessing for me because it elevated my understanding of the game a huge multiple.

1. It's my view that many otherwise sophisticated handicappers are underrating the performances of high level synthetic stakes horses in CA relative to their dirt counterparts in the east. That goes for both the leaders of the division and their competition. They aren't "big and slow", they are distributing their energy in a way that maximizes their ability to win on those surfaces. That is usually not consistent with running as fast as on dirt. Generally (don't want to get too specific about pace issues), those high level horses that can handle dirt footing equally will run faster on it and those that prefer it will explode forward.

2. Zenyatta had two performances on dirt. She won both under complete wraps and one earned a figure of 104. I don't know whether she's as good on dirt as on synthetic because IMO there is insufficient evidence. However, she's clearly capable of running as lot faster than she has to date given a reasonable pace setup and a full effort.

3. I had no problem with the way Rachel was handled last year because she had no year end goal. However, IMO if she shipped around and took on colts 3 times this year like she did last year she would be a dead tired horse at the end of this year just like she was last year. The proof is in the fact that she needed such a long vacation before coming back. IMO, had they tried the Classic last year (assuming it was on dirt), she would have been one of the favorites to finish dead last. That's how done she was.

This year I think they should keep her close to home and give her a well spaced campaign with other high quality fillies and mares and let the chips fall where they may in terms of competition just like the Zenyatta camp. Then she'll be ready in November.

[Kimsus]

Glancing at some of the offbase(I struggled for a nice word)comments here, it seems that some of Rachel's fanbase is more concerned about Zenyatta than worrying about their own horse's mediocre race over soup(let's not say tomato since I like them) cans. Whatelse is new...Carry on. :confused:

[GMB@BP]

I disagree completely. Running strictly against cream puffs until the big dance is a horrible way to prepare your horse to give 110% when it counts the most.

why do you neglect to mention the entire first part of the year for Z was to get ready to face the Horse of the Year RA at Oaklawn, you conveniently make it sound like that never happened.

[FenceBored]

why do you neglect to mention the entire first part of the year for Z was to get ready to face the Horse of the Year RA at Oaklawn, you conveniently make it sound like that never happened.

Cut the dramatics. Moss/Shireffs said the Apple Blossom was their race from the getgo. They were going there before the $5m deal was ever broached, and they went there after it fell through.

[Kimsus]

I was impressed by Queen Martha. At least she kept the race interesting for a bit.

She's better than Zardana, I can't wait to jump all over her next race when her odds drop faster than the BP ticker.

[FenceBored]

She's better than Zardana, I can't wait to jump all over her next race when her odds drop faster than the BP ticker.

Does that mean it'll drop faster than Only11's bankroll in his contest with Da Hoss?

[GMB@BP]

Cut the dramatics. Moss/Shireffs said the Apple Blossom was their race from the getgo. They were going there before the $5m deal was ever broached, and they went there after it fell through.

So you think they should have gone somewhere else to face a better field?

It will be interesting to see if they run at Del Mar.

[GMB@BP]

She's better than Zardana, I can't wait to jump all over her next race when her odds drop faster than the BP ticker.

ehh, thats a stretch. What has that horse ever won, Zardana was at least able to pull down a grade 2 event at HP, along with some minor stakes on turf.

[Kimsus]

Does that mean it'll drop faster than Only11's bankroll in his contest with Da Hoss?

I wasn't aware of any contest between the 2, though it sounds sporting. I have my own bankroll to be concerned about. I just hope someone bet Rachel to show yesterday and collect the .10 of profit, better yet not cash the ticket and keep it as a keepsake.

[FenceBored]

I wasn't aware of any contest between the 2, though it sounds sporting. I have my own bankroll to be concerned about. I just hope someone bet Rachel to show yesterday and collect the .10 of profit, better yet not cash the ticket and keep it as a keepsake.

Read all about it:

Dahoss vs. Only11 (http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=73015)

[PaceAdvantage]

Glancing at some of the offbase(I struggled for a nice word)comments here, it seems that some of Rachel's fanbase is more concerned about Zenyatta than worrying about their own horse's mediocre race over soup(let's not say tomato since I like them) cans. Whatelse is new...Carry on. :confused:Why is it you only appear after a Zenyatta or Rachel event?

[PaceAdvantage]

why do you neglect to mention the entire first part of the year for Z was to get ready to face the Horse of the Year RA at Oaklawn, you conveniently make it sound like that never happened.That quote of mine you addressed applies to Rachel as well. In fact, it applies to all top quality racehorses.

So, I'm not sure why you are asking me that question, unless you misinterpreted and thought I was only speaking of Zenyatta.

[Kimsus]

Why is it you only appear after a Zenyatta or Rachel event?

Says who? I am here, do I have to post to announce I am reading the posts? BTW didn't one race yesterday? I thought it was self explanatory. Carry on...