ADW "Games People Play" Part 1

[Teach]

For over 50 years, at least once a week, I dutifully played "the trotters" at area race tracks, e.g., Rockingham Park, Foxboro Raceway, Hinsdale Raceway, Suffolk Downs and Plainridge Racecourse.

Now, as I fast approach my 70th birthday, I confine myself to wagering once or twice a week from my home with my PC. Yet, I sometimes notice strange wagering patterns as I wager through my ADW on the Internet (I occasionally noticed these same patterns when I went to the track). You could put these track-based activities under the heading of: "Games People Play".

An example of one of "The Games" I'm alluding to could be called false hype. Just the other day I was betting Monticello's afternoon harness card from my computer. When I looked at the Internet tote board on my computer screen, I was flabbergasted. A horse and driver (he was a provisional with few previous pari-mutuel drives) was going off in the early betting as the prohibitive favorite.

Well, I quickly checked the win-betting pool. There was less than $100 wagered at the time (in this day and age, more important wagering information can be gleaned from the "exotics" and "will pay" information).

Well, as far as that early-flash wagering choice; the horse soon faded into
a decided longshot.

What's the point of all this? It is that one must be aware of "Games People Play" on the Internet (most ADW accounts allow you to quickly and easily cancel bets). A bettor could easily toss a big wager out (most pronounced at smaller, less-bet tracks) and easily retract it (I might mention that this was done at the racetrack itself). It just seems that it easier in front of a keyboard and computer screen.

Oh, that longshot that opened up as the odds-on fave, he finished well up the track.

[lamboguy]

this is nothing new. this happened on a daily basis at the old bay state raceway in foxboro. as you know kenny weinbaum had his own room in the place playing the break with about 25 seconds to do it. he was over half the handle in that place before simulcasting even existed. at that time the owner of the place eddie andleman used to watch him and probably got a piece. kenny never walked into the place with .25 cents in his pocket.

[toddbowker]

Can you explain exactly how this was a "Games People Play" on the internet?

With $100 bet in the win pool ...

a) It wouldn't require a very large bet to make a horse the favorite, even a prohibitive one.

b) The bet could have just as easily been placed on-track, or at an OTB facility. Since it was small, it could have easily been canceled later without raising any flags.

c) The few ADWs that actually allow customers to cancel wagers also have limits as to the quantity and amount of allowed cancellations, and many ADWs don't allow cancellations at all. It's not any easier to cancel wagers through an ADW than it is on-track, and in some cases is more difficult.

d) This happens all the time, and especially at small tracks it can be a totally innocent occurrence because of the win pool size.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying it was impossible for it to have been done by an ADW customer, but to suggest that that it always has to be is a stretch.

[Hoofless_Wonder]

Last night's card for Austrailia (via Twinspires) had a couple examples of this:

- early $175 to $200 bet in one race, had a horse as the 3/5 favorite. Drifted up as post time approached, at least one large bet canceled, and the horse ended up going off at final odds of 17-1 (less than $200 on him to win).

- another horse with $150 in early money was even money early, with final odds near 6-1 and a total of $400 bet on him. On track reported to be closer to 50-1. Couldn't tell if a portion of the early money got canceled or not.

This of course is a known issue when betting tracks with smaller pools - just part of the game. I'm not sure which hub hosts the Austrailian pools (Woodbine?), but it's pretty common to see 1/2 to 2/3 of the total win pool money come down on the last two flashes, including the one after the start of the race. You simply can't use the tote as an accurate indicator of the final odds like you can where there are bigger pools.

I do think there may be the occasional bet to sway the odds of other players. I don't see or can confirm late cancellations very often. However, every now and then you do see a horse that starts off 3-5, drifts up to 4-1 and then wins. Makes me wonder if the bettor on the horse decided to tilt the pool early to discourage wagers on that horse, as in general the horse's odds gravitate more towards the on-track odds as post time approaches. Of course that's the opposite view of the "hype" effect.

[comet52]

I'm not sure which hub hosts the Australian pools (Woodbine?)

If I'm remembering right it's Hastings.

[horses4courses]

Last night's card for Austrailia (via Twinspires) had a couple examples of this:
You simply can't use the tote as an accurate indicator of the final odds like you can where there are bigger pools.



Give me any horse in Australia between 5-8 MTP, and I can tell you within a a point or two, what the closing odds should be in the US pool.

You're right that there is a major discrepancy between early and closing odds, due to low handle. It nearly always falls into line by post time, though.