Uncoupled entries

[cnollfan]

Do any of the database guys have ROI stats for the longer-odds half of uncoupled entries in California, Kentucky or anywhere they are allowed? i.e. the same trainer has two different horses in a race as different betting interests.

Thanks!

[iwearpurple]

I have actually been testing this myself for a couple of months. I have only recorded results from races that I have analyzed for other reasons, and therefore my sample is way too small to draw any conclusions.

My sample is from only 124 races. However, it does show a positive ROI on the longer priced horses. 9 % win rate with ROI of 12%. The shorter priced horses win rate is 14% with neg ROI of (20%).

One of the races included (which I had the winner in addition to the exacta) was the Woodford Reserve Manhattan on Belmont Day at Belmont.

Christopher Clement horses ran 1-2. Winchester at odds of 21.40 won and Gio Ponti at odds of 1.05 ran second.

[BlueShoe]

Another entry angle to consider and research is when the seemingly stronger half of a coupled entry is an early scratch. Have had the impression for years that the supposed remaining weaker half of the entry wins far more often than just random chance would indicate. This would be very hard to research, since judgement as to which half of the entry is strongest would have to be made on raceday and then the research carried forward. Just seems to me that these types are often ignored and pop at very good odds.

[cnollfan]

Thanks.

[Rise Over Run]

Dr. Dutrow pulled one off in the 10th at Monmouth yesterday. 19-1 Full N Sassy wins, while second choice Conga Bell runs third.

[Robert Goren]

The west coast verison of this was in 6th race yesterday at Delmar with Jerry Hollendoffer. Lilly Fa Pootz won at 6/1 while U R all That I Am nosed its way into 5th at 7/5. ;)

[cnollfan]

Yes, based on the above examples and others, it seems like they win more than their fair share. That's why I thought it would be a good database query.

[iwearpurple]

Another big one. Claiming race, 3rd at Arlington on July 18th. 2 horses with a common trainer, Manny Perez (a 5% trainer), New Grange - odds 24-1 and Uno Pecador - odds 55-1.

Uno Pecador wins, pays 112.00 - 41.00 - 15.80.

Sad thing is, I really liked the place horse, Startingold, but missed the common trainer "angle". Exacta paid $1,211.40.

[billyball]

Canterbury 7-25 8th race. Trainer Mike Biehler sent out the winner Pioneer Edition $26.60. Also trained 6/5 favorite Not So Fast Festus who ran 3rd.

[Light]

This factor has become serious enough to scan before a race.

Woodbine 8th 7/24 $300k G2. Trainer Mark Frostad has a 7-1 and the chalk here, and his 7-1 beats his chalk for the exacta.

What's odd here is that the uncoupled entry had the same owners:Sam Son Farms. Maybe someone can enlighten me. Is the uncoupling here permitted because it is a stakes race or is this a Canadian thing?

[Light]

If anyone wants to follow/study this factor,you could go to Bris>programs>entries>in today>date> and look under trainers.

[miy4ever]

http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/intoday_kym.cgi?date=2010-07-26

I did today's compilation.

7/26/10 - MON
DEL-8 4(8/1) 6(2/1)
DEL-9 2(6/1) 7(3/1)
DEL-9 3(SCR) 5(8/1)
DEL-9 4(10/1) FOND(?)
FE-4 1(3/1) 3(7/2)
FE-5 8(12/1) 10(12/1)
PHA-2 2(15/1) 4(10/1) 6-3-1-4
PHA-3 2(SCR) 11(9/2) 11-10-6-5
PRM-2 5(6/1) 7(8/5)
PRM-8 3(3/1) 6(15/1)
RD-3 1(3/1) 5(8/5) 5-2-6-4
RD-5 1(12/1) 2(10/1) 4-6-3-5
SUF-4 3(8/1) 5(5/2) 5-4-3-6
TDN-2 2(2/1) 6(8/5) 6-5-2-3
TDN-6 3(12/1) 7(12/1) 2-6-5-3
YAV-7 2(8/1) 3(3/1)
YAV-9 5(5/1) 7(10/1)

I will update it, as the results will be out.

Thanx.

PS - The odds are M/L only.

[Robert Goren]

I think anybody who studies this will find some trainers seem do it alot more than others. I learned a long time ago that the Von Humels did it quite often.

[miy4ever]

This xls file is an updated version, with pay-offs. Still, a couple of results are awaited, so I'll attach a 3rd file, later on. Thanx.

PS - Only Del 8th race had a NICE payoff, in this list, so far.

[miy4ever]

The final file. Not much going on. YAV failed, as that was the only track remainig, in my previous file.

CONCLUSION:- Total 17 races. Even the minimum $2 WIN bet on each one of the longer shots will be $34 cost. The return would be $24.60(Del-8) + $7.60(Pha-3) = $32.20 !!

[cnollfan]

Thanks.

[miy4ever]

Here are the "uncoupled" entries for 7/27 - Tuesday.

Note that YAV-9 has 3 uncoupled horses for the same trainer !!

Thanx.

[Light]

The final file. Not much going on. YAV failed, as that was the only track remainig, in my previous file.

CONCLUSION:- Total 17 races. Even the minimum $2 WIN bet on each one of the longer shots will be $34 cost. The return would be $24.60(Del-8) + $7.60(Pha-3) = $32.20 !!

I think the ROI is better if you filter the plays although betting blindly did better than most people could with handicapping. First I'd remove all non TB races. The 2 Yav races were quarter horses and I think that last Del race is not TB's as a rule.

I also think you want to bet this in the classic sense when there is a trainer with a chalky horse and his other entry is x-1 and up. The Delaware $24 horse fit that profile. Most of the others did not. For example a couple of races where both trainers horses were bombs doesn't make sense to bet. I think the idea is that the trainer knows one of his horses will be bet,so he makes sure the longer shot wins.

[miy4ever]

Nice observation, & conclusion, Light!

Basically, I was just following the thread, & did some input. I have never played, so far, like this. I'm a paper-n-pen guy (Of course, I use computer for "Excel" & internet usage). No software. Only PP's. That too, "free" from Brisnet's link (PDF version). In short, no overhead costs!

And you are also right about Q-horses @ DEL & YAV.

Thanx.

[iwearpurple]

Light

I think that you should include the "bombs". My small sample of 124 races done before this thread started included winners of 43.00, 36.00, 44.00, 40.00, and 35.00.

I would agree that all non TB races should be eliminated, and I would also eliminate races where 1 of the horses scratched.

[miy4ever]

Hey guys, here is the file with results. As it had happened yesterday, today also only 2 races with winners. Out of these 2, 1 paid big & another small. Still 5 races are awaited, so I'll post one more file, later on.

Thanx.

[miy4ever]

The final file. Nothing more interesting than yesterday, although there are 2 (PRM-8 & YAV-5) BIG winners, only YAV-5 is a longer shot of the 2 uncoupled entries.

Overall 24 races, so $48 on WIN bets, on each one of the longer shots, returned $29.60 (YAV-5) + $6.80 (YAV-9) = $36.40.

As Light has mentioned not to include "both bombs", we are left with 3 lesser races (eliminate FP-8, SUF-9 & TDN-7). Also, as per IWEARPURPLE's thought, eliminate "SCR" races, so 3 more to be eliminated (DEL-8, FP-2 & RD-14), leaving us a total of 18 races, $36 wagered. This returned $36.40 !!

Thanx.

[miy4ever]

This factor has become serious enough to scan before a race.

Woodbine 8th 7/24 $300k G2. Trainer Mark Frostad has a 7-1 and the chalk here, and his 7-1 beats his chalk for the exacta.

What's odd here is that the uncoupled entry had the same owners:Sam Son Farms. Maybe someone can enlighten me. Is the uncoupling here permitted because it is a stakes race or is this a Canadian thing?

LIGHT, I have asked the WB's website the same question, & am expecting their reply. I'll post it as it's delivered.

[miy4ever]

Well Light, the WB website never responded, but drf.com did today, as below:

Hi I. S.,

Woodbine instituted a rule change in 2003 stating: “In all stake & handicap races in which the gross purse is $100,000 or more, starters shall be considered a separate betting interest irrespective of common owner or trainer.”

Regards,

Mike @ DRF

[Light]

Thanks miy4ever.

[Stillriledup]

Garret Gomez stiffs Desert Flight in Monday's 3rd race at Hollywood. I guess he was under instructions to not try so that the other horse from that trainers barn could get a loose lead?

If you bet Desert Flight you didnt get your money's worth.

But, i guess that's part of the handicapping process, knowing when a guy isnt going to give his best effort.

[Dahoss9698]

Garret Gomez stiffs Desert Flight in Monday's 3rd race at Hollywood. I guess he was under instructions to not try so that the other horse from that trainers barn could get a loose lead?

If you bet Desert Flight you didnt get your money's worth.

But, i guess that's part of the handicapping process, knowing when a guy isnt going to give his best effort.

Yeah, he stiffed so the favorite, who ran off the screen could win. How is it possible for someone to be this clueless?