"How to Win the PICK 6: Horse Racing's Big $$$ Payout" by Steven Kolb

[HWright98]

I posted this in another thread, but it didn't get much response. Has anybody ever read "How to Win the PICK 6: Horse Racing's Big $$$ Payout" by Steven Kolb? All of the reviews seem really good; but I thought I'd ask a more trusted source in the people here.

[GameTheory]

If you're thinking of betting the P6 on a regular basis (the book will try to convince you there isn't anything else worth betting), I'd certainly recommend it. The author posts here.

[Force of One]

I have. Overall I liked it. I enjoyed the author's writing style and I thought he gave some good advice in areas (ex. his 30/30/40 Rule).

My only complaint was I thought he was a bit cavalier at times, basically talking about betting what I think most people would consider substantial money in a way akin to playing lotto tickets. Also, I think he overestimates realistic win percentages for anyone below an expert handicapping level, as well as how easily one can grow their bankroll. A quote "it's not easy, but it's not extremely difficult to win that $25,000". I strongly disagree. It's more than "not easy". Even hitting these bets very irregularly, it's not difficult at all to only win a few thousand even (and especially) with big carryover days when you are up against the syndicate type tickets.

I would say this book COULD be very dangerous to a newer handicapper who might think this is much easier said than done and could basically bet a year's salary on very low percentage bets with absolutely nothing to show for it.

On the positive side, I really like the organized approach he suggests as well as the good tips for tackling this bet sprinkled throughout.

[Steven Kolb]

Thanks for the nice words GameTheory & Force of One.
Quickly > The only way to attain wealth at the track is to be a Pick 6 winner. A repeat Pick 6 winner.
Steve Crist - (I agree & disagree w/ him on different subjects) says the Pick 6 is the best way to make money at the track. It's also the toughest. > Agreed.

The book has a chapter on wagers under $50, and another chapter on wagers up to $300. Aside form some personal stories, I rarely talk about huge wagers. I write a lot about the $32 wager. It's a classic starting point.
FYI - - The 30/30/40 Rule is incredible.

If Newbie came to the track with $100 and asked me what to do, I say play a wide variety of bets and have a good time, but save $32 for the Pick 6. I'd simply tell him to pick three favorites, and single two of them. Find three horses he likes at 9/2 odds or lower, and four horses he likes at odds between 5-1 and 12-1. (Ten total selections) Finish his ticket so that the remaining four legs have two horses in each race; any order he wants.

If it's Newbie's day (Go Newbie!!) it's possible those two singles will win, along with horses at 9/2, 5-1, 8-1 and 8-1. If it's a weekend at Del Mar, Newbie could be looking at a $25K to $50K payday. > > It's really that simple.

I would counsel Newbie to up his wager ($144 range) for awhile and see if he could nail another Pick 6.

Put your tickets together - such that a $25K+ Pick 6 can happen to you. When it does, reread my chapter - The 3% solution. It can change your life.

Oh... I've just started a Twitter account - - MrPick6 - stop by & say hi!

> Very best wishes to you and yours!

sk
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[Vinman]

Steve:

Yesterday I ordered two books from Amazon.....yours and the one by the guy who uses Excel for handicapping, which is something I've been doing for years.

I got started playing the Pick 6 in 1998. With a group of friends we managed to cash the first $1,000,000 guaranteed Pick 6 at Hollywood for $53,357.60 on an investment of $5,936. We also had 28 "consos" for $544 each. We used an A / B approach, needing at least 3 A's to win. We had 4. But to win big, we needed and got a healty dose of luck from the racing gods in the final leg when a firster we had, Bimbo's Kiss, ran down the 2-1 fave in deep stretch for a $55.00 win mutuel. Otherwise we're wearing do-do from head to toe.

What many folks may not remember about that Pick 6 is that it was heavily promoted in the DRF as a "mandatory payout", which appealed to us and obviously a lot of other folks, resulting in a Pick 6 pool that exceeded 3.3 million. After that they all got greedy with the 1MM guarantee promotions and dropped the mandatory payout provision so they could make more $$$ generating carryovers. As we saw over the years, the 1MM guarantees became a thing of the past, replaced by lesser guaranteed pool amounts as the SoCal tracks began failing to hit the 1MM.

In 2000 we were also very fortunate to hit the BC Pick 6 for $45,000+, on an investment of $17,988. Again we got a lift from the racing gods when War Chant got up at the wire in the Mile, the first leg, after clipping heels at the top of the stretch.

The Pick 6 indeed is a very hard bet to win. We stopped playing the BC P6 after getting clobbered in the 2003 BC at SA on an investment of $25,000+. Same thing happened in 2001 at the Belmont BC. But because it is so hard to hit, no racetrack score of any kind feels better when you manage to win it.

I'm looking forward to reading about the 3% solution, the 30 / 30 / 40 rule and about "Frittering", something I've been doing a fair amount of lately.

I'm actually looking to get back into the Pick 6 game. I'm sure your book will help.

Vinman

[Steven Kolb]

I remember that big Hollywood Pick 6. I donated a few C-notes to Vinman's bank account.
Some good stories Vinman. I like how you say, "a group of friends." Sounds like you guys were a loosely formed syndicate; betting five figures, trying to take home six.
*
I appreciate that you ordered the book.

My two MAIN GOALS for my readers.

1) I really hope they ENJOY the read.

2) I really hope they gain at least one "insight" from all the hints and ideas I offer, and that the insight(s) takes them from being a 4 of 6, or 5 of 6 player; to winning the Pick 6 and collecting some five and six-figure paychecks. __ I really do.

Enjoy - and drop me a note after you've read it.

Take care.

sk

[RaceBookJoe]

I just ordered the book also...looking forward to reading it. rbj

[Steven Kolb]

Joe,

I suggest not skipping around. It's very readable - front to back.

Think about the 3% Solution. What it take to get there - and what it takes to stay there.

90% of this game is will power - The other 20% is inner strength.

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I know - - Yogi Berra.... :D
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sk
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[facorsig]

I ordered the book several weeks ago and will read over this weekend. If I am inspired, I will write a review on Amazon.com. I have written a few dozen over there on handicapping books.

Fred

[Trotman]

I have Stevens book and front to back a great read. What I got from the book was do you have it in you, which I can say for me, no being that I'm a comfortable grinder. I have hit the six and a few 5 of 6 and honestly this book should be part of your library because no two players are alike. On this forum we talk about everything from angles to takeout but in my mind if we discussed more on where we hit and talk about this in open forum then we get serious. :ThmbUp:

[John]

I ordered the book several weeks ago and will read over this weekend. If I am inspired, I will write a review on Amazon.com. I have written a few dozen over there on handicapping books.

Fred

I would appreciate it if you can give your review on this link.

Thanks.

:) :) :)

[Steven Kolb]

I hope you didn't order it via UPS ;)

Do you (or have you) live on the island? My Grandpa visited sometime during the cold war. If I dug thru my moms "stuff" I might find some pictures.

I wrote the book for the beginner to advanced intermediate player. Experts have enjoyed it - - "gave me a boost" - "made me more determined" - "liked your game plan."

I got dinged on being repetitive. On certain points I am. In defense of that; all too often, for ME to learn and understand something, I need to have it pounded into me. (Plus I have three teenagers...) I've been writing screenplays for the past year. I have a tendency to to over embellish a scene, and have to force myself to "cut back" and keep it simple. Guess it's just the way I'm wired.

Thanks for ordering the book. Enjoy the read. Pick up a key piece of the
Pick 6 puzzle, and hopefully I'll see you at the IRS window.

Take care Fred.

sk
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[Greyfox]

I got dinged on being repetitive. On certain points I am. In defense of that; all too often, for ME to learn and understand something, I need to have it pounded into me. .

Nothing wrong with that. :ThmbUp:
Some handicapping and betting ideas are worth repeating over and over.
If an author just says them once, there's a damn good chance the reader will skim over it and forget it.

[thaskalos]

Is this accurate?

400 pages on just the pick 6...with no handicapping advice at all?

It doesn't seem possible...

[Steven Kolb]

~
Visit the publishers website. Click the second "button."

www.howtowinthepick6.com

There are three excerpts.

There is a chapter on simple handicapping. The book is not
a lesson in handicapping - it is a book about winning the
Pick 6 and what to do once you become a winner.

I included some stories and "fun stuff" to keep it light, and
a crisp - enjoyable read.

Have a great and prosperous weekend.

sk
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[David-LV]

I also ordered the book from Amazon and if I can gain just one little grain of sand of knowledge on how to hit pick 6's then it is well worth reading the book.

Looking forward to my UPS man on AUG. 12th.

_______
David-LV

[Eddie W]

First you get a computer program, learn how to pick the right paceline
pickout the first 4 contenders.....And Have other great system to pick
out 2 horses a race....But first try it all paper always, before really
betting...

[Eddie W]

One more thing i forgot to say is you need to pick out first time starter's
on any given pick6 card...Or say bye bye to your money..And shiper's

[facorsig]

Yes, I live in Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk. I travelled earlier this week to the north end of the island through the city of Nogliki.

Actually, I do order my books for delivery by UPS. UPS sends them to a P.O. Box in Houston where they are repackaged for shipment by DHL. In my last assignment in the Middle East I could not order handicapping books, but yours was one of the first I ordered here.

I have written the review, but it is on another computer. I will post to Amazon and a link here.

[WJ47]

I have this book and I really enjoyed it. I really liked the scenarios and horseplaying adventure stories. I learned some stuff that I didn't know about the Pick 6. I thought the book was written in a very entertaining and easy-to-read style. And the 30-30-40 rule was a shocking revelation to me! I'm not really playing Pick 6 tickets right now because I can't pick my own rear end at Saratoga and Del Mar, but I'm looking forward to the fall meets.

[mistergee]

Is this accurate?

400 pages on just the pick 6...with no handicapping advice at all?

It doesn't seem possible...
it is

[Charlie]

Steve.... your book definitely looks like a very interesting read. I say this because I was on Amazon and read the available pages. My question is simply this. I am a harness racing fan, but what harness tracks besides the Meadowlands offers Pic 6 wagering? Just wondering if it makes sense for me to purchase your book since there meet ends this Friday night. Any feedback would be appreciated. By the way, the payout on the Meadowlands Friday night Pic 6 will be a huge one and I certainly will be wagering.

[Greyfox]

For the vast vast majority of players, if they keep track on their monies over a lifetime, betting the Pick 6 will be a losing proposition no matter how any book author tells them to bet it. A nice dream, but a losing one for most.
Sorry Steve, I'm not buying.

[JustRalph]

For the vast vast majority of players, if they keep track on their monies over a lifetime, betting the Pick 6 will be a losing proposition no matter how any book author tells them to bet it. A nice dream, but a losing one for most.
Sorry Steve, I'm not buying.

2nd the motion

[Steven Kolb]

Charlie - Unfortunately, I am but a casual fan of harness racing, but if it's a nice sized pool and you know the track & trends & handicapping... make your bet an intelligent one that won't hurt.
_____
Greyfox - I hear and understand your note. A challenge for most players is the ability to "change." I do not know of any other way to attain wealth at the racetrack other than to be a repeat Pick 6 winner. I've had six-figure years and years where Murphy's Law beat me at every turn. Many, many ups and downs - good beats and bad...

I'll stand by this... If a new, or budgeted, player follows the advise in the book (many nuggets are dished out) they will have a far superior chance of winning the Pick 6 than an average player, or even a more vested player who won't change. Once their $32 (or ???) wager hits for a $20K - $40K + payday, they are shown a path to earn a six-figure income. Simple.

If they buy a new car, or take the in-laws on a trip around the world, they've stepped off the path. Money does "things" to people. Been there and "done things"... just ask my wife, (then again - she doesn't need a remender).

I wonder how many forum members know/believe that 40% of Pick 6 races at the major tracks are won by horses at ML Odds of 5-1 and higher? That's an average of two+ races in a P6 being won by horses at longer odds. And if they know that - do they assemble their P6 ticket accordingly? I don't have a firm answer to those two questions, but my best guess is -- few & no.

I believe there are many thousands of players who lose money on a steady basis chasing all the wagers available - WPS to 10 cent Superfectas'. It's fun to be foolish. Those who can change - and stay changed - have a chance to reap huge profits.

Greyfox: I've read and enjoyed many of your posts. Thanks. I'll end with a question that you need not answer here... perhaps another part of this forum if you desire.

If a player wants to "become wealthy" playing the horses, besides saying it's impossible ;) - - what types of bets would you tell him he should play to attain wealth?

My answer - - Play the Pick 6. Win the Pick 6. Then become a repeat Pick 6 winner. _ Straightforward, doable, and simple.

Take care & best wishes!

sk

[thaskalos]

Charlie - Unfortunately, I am but a casual fan of harness racing, but if it's a nice sized pool and you know the track & trends & handicapping... make your bet an intelligent one that won't hurt.
_____
Greyfox - I hear and understand your note. A challenge for most players is the ability to "change." I do not know of any other way to attain wealth at the racetrack other than to be a repeat Pick 6 winner. I've had six-figure years and years where Murphy's Law beat me at every turn. Many, many ups and downs - good beats and bad...

I'll stand by this... If a new, or budgeted, player follows the advise in the book (many nuggets are dished out) they will have a far superior chance of winning the Pick 6 than an average player, or even a more vested player who won't change. Once their $32 (or ???) wager hits for a $20K - $40K + payday, they are shown a path to earn a six-figure income. Simple.

If they buy a new car, or take the in-laws on a trip around the world, they've stepped off the path. Money does "things" to people. Been there and "done things"... just ask my wife, (then again - she doesn't need a remender).

I wonder how many forum members know/believe that 40% of Pick 6 races at the major tracks are won by horses at ML Odds of 5-1 and higher? That's an average of two+ races in a P6 being won by horses at longer odds. And if they know that - do they assemble their P6 ticket accordingly? I don't have a firm answer to those two questions, but my best guess is -- few & no.

I believe there are many thousands of players who lose money on a steady basis chasing all the wagers available - WPS to 10 cent Superfectas'. It's fun to be foolish. Those who can change - and stay changed - have a chance to reap huge profits.

Greyfox: I've read and enjoyed many of your posts. Thanks. I'll end with a question that you need not answer here... perhaps another part of this forum if you desire.

If a player wants to "become wealthy" playing the horses, besides saying it's impossible ;) - - what types of bets would you tell him he should play to attain wealth?

My answer - - Play the Pick 6. Win the Pick 6. Then become a repeat Pick 6 winner. _ Straightforward, doable, and simple.

Take care & best wishes!

skIs it prudent to try "to become wealthy", in a game where 98% of the players are trying to keep their heads above water?

If anybody were to come to ME for advice...I would tell them to study the game as much as they can...and then to invest a small amount as a bankroll, and try to grow it over time...using easier bets, which won't disappoint them so often.

Why the need tho get rich in a hurry? Impatience is not a virtue in this game.

I know that the pick-6 has made a lot of people "wealthy"...but the same can be said about the lottery.

[rrpic6]

2nd the motion

I beg to differ:2009.Wager Types: Pick-6 # of Bets Win % $1 ROI Wagered Payoff Profit/Loss 48 12.50% +1.02 $4161.00 $8399.20 $+4238.20
2010:
Wager Types: Pick-6 # of Bets Win % $1 ROI Wagered Payoff Profit/Loss 68 10.29% +0.23 $4041.25 $4974.70 $+933.45. *Does not include $4900 payout on a pick 6 ticket played last Sunday at an OTB on Saratoga for $128.

RR

[facorsig]

This is the link to my review:

http://www.amazon.com/How-WIN-PICK-Racings-Payout/product-reviews/0974402303/ref=cm_cr_pr_recent?ie=UTF8&showViewpoints=0&sortBy=bySubmissionDateDescending

For your review and feedback.

Fred

[Greyfox]

This is the link to my review:

http://www.amazon.com/How-WIN-PICK-Racings-Payout/product-reviews/0974402303/ref=cm_cr_pr_recent?ie=UTF8&showViewpoints=0&sortBy=bySubmissionDateDescending

For your review and feedback.

Fred

Thank you for the review which seems balanced.

Feedback?? Personally I'm not following the math in what you are reporting in the following statement:

"My own analysis suggests that to win 3% of Pick 6 wagers, it is necessary to capture 56% of the probability for each of the six legs."

I'd be interested in hearing from other mathematical minded types here on that stat. My own thinking is .56 x .56 x .56 x. 56 x .56 x .56
is an awfully small number. It is never going to yield the Pick 6 three percent of the time.
That's why there's an element of snake oil panacea in this whole pitch on how to play the Pick 6.
Telling the average Joe to spend $ 32 a day over the next 300 days is going to put him over $ 9,000 down at the races.
Possibly an interesting read, but very very few will make wealth with this book and far more will lose lose lose.

[Charlie]

Steve.. thanks for the reply. 2 weeks ago, I telephoned the Barnes and Noble Bookstores in my area. I was told no stores in my area (NH/Mass) stocked the Book, but they offered to order it for me. So yes, I ordered it, but only to be told 4 days later that the order couldn't be filled. Don't know why, but tomorrow is my birthday and my son is ordering the book through Amazon. I truly enjoy reading handicapping books. I have so so many, some excellent, some very bad. But anyway, I look forward to adding your book to my hadicapping library.

[Greyfox]

I'm not following the math in what you are reporting in the following statement:

"My own analysis suggests that to win 3% of Pick 6 wagers, it is necessary to capture 56% of the probability for each of the six legs."

I'd be interested in hearing from other mathematical minded types here on that stat. My own thinking is .56 x .56 x .56 x. 56 x .56 x .56
is an awfully small number.

I stand corrected on the above.
In theory you should hit the Pick 6 once every 33 times you play it on the above probabilities. The fact is you are highly unlikely to get that probability level on a $ 32 wager. Still a losing proposition.

[thaskalos]

I stand corrected on the above.
In theory you should hit the Pick 6 once every 33 times you play it on the above probabilities. The fact is you are highly unlikely to get that probability level on a $ 32 wager. Still a losing proposition. The amazing thing, is that the author seems to have written this book, with the "new, or budgeted player" in mind.

I can see the experienced, well-heeled player venturing into the deep waters of the pick-6...but to suggest that the new player, on a budget, should join him...is hardly sound advice IMO.

New players, with short bankrolls, should not be in this much of a hurry to get "wealthy", in this game...

[facorsig]

.56 x .56 x .56 x. 56 x .56 x .56
is an awfully small number.

0.56^6 = 3.08%

An awfully small number, but still 3%!

Fred

[David-LV]

Steve.... your book definitely looks like a very interesting read. I say this because I was on Amazon and read the available pages. My question is simply this. I am a harness racing fan, but what harness tracks besides the Meadowlands offers Pic 6 wagering? Just wondering if it makes sense for me to purchase your book since there meet ends this Friday night. Any feedback would be appreciated. By the way, the payout on the Meadowlands Friday night Pic 6 will be a huge one and I certainly will be wagering.

The Meadowlands fall harness meet starts on Saturday Oct.23rd and there will be harness racing every Fri. & Sat. until Saturday Dec.18th.

_________
David-LV

[Sinner369]

For all the Guys that read the book............Can you explain basically what is meant by this rule..........30 - 30 -40..............


Sinner

[garyscpa]

For all the Guys that read the book............Can you explain basically what is meant by this rule..........30 - 30 -40..............


Sinner

In the average pick 6 sequence, 30% of the winners will be M/L faves, 30% will be not fave but less than 5-1 M/L, and 40% will be 5-1 or greater M/L.

[Greyfox]

0.56^6 = 3.08%

An awfully small number, but still 3%!

Fred

facorsig...Fred....ahem....please read Post 31. (I corrected my earlier comment. I also said you are not likely to get .56 prob for each leg on most days just spending $ 32 every day over 6 races. A losing proposition.)

[GameTheory]

There isn't any snake oil in this book as far as I can tell, and Greyfox you are not "getting" it because you haven't read it and making premature judgments about what is and isn't a losing proposition based on incorrect assumptions. (For instance, it doesn't say "spend $32 everyday and you'll soon be rich" -- nothing of the sort).

As far as newbies shouldn't be doing this, I think they'll have a better chance in some ways because they won't dig in their heels like some of the handicapping veterans in this thread assuming in can't work because they've decided the P6 is a sucker bet or whatever. And they won't let a lot of handicapping stuff get in their way either. I would suggest a fairly new player with a disciplined personality and one of the better pieces of software to pick contenders might do well with this approach. (Or anybody else that can drop their preconceptions and simply follow the advice, which seems impossible for a lot of people even if they form the intention to do so.) It seems a lot of negativity in this thread is coming from an attitude of "You can't win at this game, so certainly don't try anything ambitious." Maybe it is the attitude that is holding you back.

[Sinner369]

Thank You, garyscpa.....BUT why do you need a book to tell you this...........???

I played the Pick 6, Pick 8, Pick 9.......at various tracks and (to me) you should never bet such a exotic pool unless you have at least two singles (or more) before you even look at investing in such a "tough to get" pool........in other words.......don't play unless the race card looks like it will be a favorites day card........

[GameTheory]

Thank You, garyscpa.....BUT why do you need a book to tell you this...........???

I played the Pick 6, Pick 8, Pick 9.......at various tracks and (to me) you should never bet such a exotic pool unless you have at least two singles (or more) before you even look at investing in such a "tough to get" pool........in other words.......don't play unless the race card looks like it will be a favorites day card........
He is telling you that so you LEAVE OUT favorites because most people chase them and put far too many low-priced horses on their ticket, which gives them a high-priced ticket chasing a small payoff. He's telling you to make low-priced tickets chasing medium to high payoffs.

[Gapfire]

(For instance, it doesn't say "spend $32 everyday and you'll soon be rich" -- nothing of the sort).





If Newbie came to the track with $100 and asked me what to do, I say play a wide variety of bets and have a good time, but save $32 for the Pick 6. I'd simply tell him to pick three favorites, and single two of them. Find three horses he likes at 9/2 odds or lower, and four horses he likes at odds between 5-1 and 12-1. (Ten total selections) Finish his ticket so that the remaining four legs have two horses in each race; any order he wants.



It certainly appears that Mr. Kolb is advocating a $32 Pick 6 bet for newbies.

[Greyfox]

Greyfox you are not "getting" it because you haven't read it and making premature judgments about what is and isn't a losing proposition based on incorrect assumptions. (For instance, it doesn't say "spend $32 everyday and you'll soon be rich" -- nothing of the sort).

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Yeah right. Maybe Game Theory you should read what has been posted on this board.

In one post on page 1 of this thread, the author wrote:

"If Newbie came to the track with $100 and asked me what to do, I say play a wide variety of bets and have a good time, but save $32 for the Pick 6."

Then in post # 25 of this thread, he wrote:

"If a new, or budgeted, player follows the advise in the book (many nuggets are dished out) they will have a far superior chance of winning the Pick 6 than an average player, or even a more vested player who won't change. Once their $32 (or ???) wager hits for a $20K - $40K + payday, they are shown a path to earn a six-figure income. Simple."

[GameTheory]

I have read the thread. Please see what I said exactly. Please see what those quotes of yours are saying exactly.

Yes, he is advocated that bet. But he doesn't say you are going to get rich betting $32 bets and that you should bet $32 bets for the rest of your life. He is saying that's how you get started. See the phrase in the quote above "are shown a path", meaning that path opens up AFTER you've hit the first one for a half-decent payday. Until then, keep your wagers minimal. (Although he never advocates huge P6 wagers, but nevertheless isn't suggesting that $32 is all you ever want to spend.)

And his theoretical advice to the newbie on his first day at the track should be taken in the spirit it was offered, i.e. "Newbie, go have fun but consider the pick-6." This is a newbie that hasn't read the book, after all. You are trying to boil a 400 page book that you haven't read down to one statement. Is there some reason this author should not be given a fair shake?

[facorsig]

I took a different interpretation of the $32 wager comments. I have read another Pick 6 book, perhaps by Barry Meadow, which says that these lower valued tickets are disadvantaged against players with larger tickets. The conclusion from this other book was something akin to wagers less than a couple of hundred dollars were not competitive. Kolb is saying these smaller tickets are worthwhile.

I think Kolb makes a great case for limiting the number of favorites to cover, the problem becomes which races to single! My work since reading the book suggests I am singling the incorrect races. The book forced me to think about the number of favorites I have played in my limited P6 wagering history and I bet I've never played a ticket with fewer than 4 or 5 favorites.

[Gapfire]

I took a different interpretation of the $32 wager comments. I have read another Pick 6 book, perhaps by Barry Meadow, which says that these lower valued tickets are disadvantaged against players with larger tickets. The conclusion from this other book was something akin to wagers less than a couple of hundred dollars were not competitive. Kolb is saying these smaller tickets are worthwhile.

I think Kolb makes a great case for limiting the number of favorites to cover, the problem becomes which races to single! My work since reading the book suggests I am singling the incorrect races. The book forced me to think about the number of favorites I have played in my limited P6 wagering history and I bet I've never played a ticket with fewer than 4 or 5 favorites.

As you have read the book, and are now employing its strategies, it would be great to see you hit one.

[Vinnie]

As you have read the book, and are now employing its strategies, it would be great to see you hit one.

Indeed it would!! :) I want to say that it was Andy Beyer that said the following, however, it may have been someone else.

"I don't just want to win; I want to Win Big"! Something to that affect.

Love that saying.

[Steven Kolb]

HAPPY BIRTHDAY CHARLIE!! You don't look a day younger ;) Thank you for ordering the book. Note: Barnes & Noble is in tough times. They likely have a credit line w/ vendors and have reduced availability on many books. I hope they recover & prosper.
WJ47 - Thanks for saying you enjoyed the read. It was my intent from the beginning to make it an enjoyable read and not just a bunch of statistics.
thaskalos - "prudent to try & become wealthy?" Why not take a shot? No player should ever go overboard, but an educated - within their means -wager on a $100K + P6 - Hey, it just might be their (or your) day.
facorsig - Very nice review... thank you. Let me/us know how lowering your P6 "insurance" rate goes. Going from 5 or 6 paper fav's to just 3 isn't easy. I hope you reel in a nice paycheck; real soon.

GameTheory - You really do "get it." You replied to some of the posters far better than I ever could have. Thank you!

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[Steven Kolb]

The $32 is, IMO, a nice starting point for a serious Pick 6 wager. I used it as an example primarily because it typically involves ten selections (2x2x2x2x1x1 X $2 = $32) and is easier to understand the 30/30/40 Rule breakdown.

No player should ever gamble beyond their means.

The "NEWBIE" story below is from Post #4

I hope you "get" this. --- If Newbie were to win the Pick 6 once in two hundred (200) $32 attempts (doable with the layout shown below), and he won, say - $25,000... then he would have won at a rate of 0.5% (half of one percent).

So he lost 199 times at $32 each. Total lossses = $6,368
Gross total profit for winning at 0.5% rate = $18,632 __ ($25,000 - $6,368)

I look at his wager below, and if he maintained the $32 play, I believe he could win at least 2% of the time. That would be four $25K wins in 200 tries.
It would create $100,000 - $6,272 = a gross profit of $93,728.

Of course NOBODY would stay at $32 wagers after winning $25K. The book addresses what Newbie should do after he wins that $25K.

Again ---- the $32 wager is just a sample, a starting point. I could have used $8 or $96. The $32 layout is easiest to understand.

Now go win one!
_______________
:
If Newbie came to the track with $100 and asked me what to do, I say play a wide variety of bets and have a good time, but save $32 for the Pick 6. I'd simply tell him to pick three favorites, and single two of them. Find three horses he likes at 9/2 odds or lower, and four horses he likes at odds between 5-1 and 12-1. (Ten total selections) Finish his ticket so that the remaining four legs have two horses in each race; any order he wants.

If it's Newbie's day (Go Newbie!!) it's possible those two singles will win, along with horses at 9/2, 5-1, 8-1 and 8-1. If it's a weekend at Del Mar, Newbie could be looking at a $25K to $50K payday. > > It's really that simple.

[thaskalos]

It seems a lot of negativity in this thread is coming from an attitude of "You can't win at this game, so certainly don't try anything ambitious." Maybe it is the attitude that is holding you back.You might be right...thanks for the advice.

[plainolebill]

I bought the book and think it's well worth the modest price. I can easily throw away $32 with action bets so why not, instead, handicap and bet a pick 6 when the conditions are right?

[facorsig]

As you have read the book, and are now employing its strategies, it would be great to see you hit one.

Yes, this will be a fine moment. At the point where I can prove to myself on paper that I can consistently beat this wager with a statistically significant number of races, I will pull out the rubles. Until then, this is strictly a pencil and paper game, but fun nonetheless.

[pandy]

There are a lot of lottery players who lose more than $32 a week betting the lottery with no chance of winning, they would be much better off taking a $32 shot at the Pick 6, even if they don't know much about handicapping. I've always been surprised that the tracks don't market it to the lottery players that way.

[Vinnie]

I am definitely going to have to purchase Mr. Kolb's book. I rarely play the P6, but, when I do, I normally play fairly frugal tickets of the $24, 32 or 48 dollar varieties. Of course, as he (Mr. Kolb) stated earlier, if I did hit a decent one at some point, I would consider going a bit deeper on maybe a day where there is a decent carryover, strong card, etc.. I have never won the P6. I have won many 5 out of 6's, and a handful of them have been in the thousands. You never know, maybe if I had read his book, it might have been what was required to get me that magical 6 of 6 on one of those plays that I made in the past.

Even if I glean one facet from his book (which I have a feeling that I will) that may be the missing ingredient when I formulate my general P6 wagers, it will have made reading it fully worthwhile. :)

[Jay Trotter]

Mr. Kolb, I have my copy of your book -- bought and paid for!

Since you are an active member here I wouldn't mind seeing a few demonstrations of your selection process -- pick a card and lay it out as if there was a big carry-over.

Start with the $32 ticket and then take us to your current structure.

Thanks,

Trotter:ThmbUp:

[Jay Trotter]

Looks like we got the big carryover at Del Mar for tomorrow --- hopefully, we can see the process!

Trotter:ThmbUp:

[Steven Kolb]

Hey Trotter!

A most excellent idea!

A few weeks ago my kids gave me a Wacom for my birthday.
My intent is to use it exactly as you request - to demonstrate
what I do in preparation for assembling my Pick 6 wagers.
I had planned to post it on my site and youtube.com

However, I have yet to use it. With any luck, I'll get it all figured
out and be able to put a respectable presentation together. It will
happen, confidently sooner than later.

When I'm ready (or think I am), I'll post here first and hopefully
receive comments and suggestions to improve the presentation.

Writing paragraph after paragraph breaking down tomorrow's
Pick 6 carryover at Del Mar... no thanks. That's why I wanted
the Wacom.

Soooo.... coming (eventually) to a forum near you, an entertaining
webcast of, "How to WIN the PICK 6"

May your Del Mar mortal lock (Unico Lider??) hit the wire first, allowing
you to reel in a big one on Friday evenings Pick 6 C/O.

Thanks for the nudge Trotter.

Best wishes, and thank you for ordering the book.

sk
.
.

[goforgin]

Also bought the book. I'll give it a try. Del Mar 20AUG10. Please don't critique my handicapping too much.:D
1/1/2/2/2/2. 10 horses. 16 x 2 = $32.
R3 - Unable to split the #4 and #7. 8-5 and 9-5, one will be the favorite.
R4 - Looks open with the #4 at ML FAV 3-1. Take a shot with the #3 and #9. 5-1 and 7-2. Raced each other last out, maybe the small drop will help one of them.
R5 - Like the #10 ML Fav, but is AE and may not draw in. Will then go with the #4 and #6. 5-1 and 6-1.
R6 - Make a stand with #7, the 5-2 ML FAV. Not sure what the drop signals, but needed a single. Feast or famine.
R7 - #7, my 2nd single. Hope sythetic win transfers to the grass. Looks like has a littte back class, and 9-2.
R8 - #3 and #5 at 5-1 and 7-2. Try to beat the #11 ML FAV parked on the outside. Hoping the post is too much to overcome.
#4, #7 // #3, #9 // #4, #6 // #7 // #7 // #3, 5
Two ML FAV's, four others at 9-5 to 9-2, and four at 5-1 to 6-1. The positive is I only selected 2 ML FAV's, but the negative is nothing above 6-1. Hope form holds true and the medium prices hit.
Good luck to all.

[Steven Kolb]

goforgin

Overnights have really changed the Pick 6 series.
I'd really liked R5 #1 - but he scratched, drawing in
the dangerous (beatable???) Get Funky
I may single R8 #5 ..... repeat: may...

If possible - wait till late scratches are announced.
One key scratch can really alter ticket composition.

Later today - if you can - edit those selections. You've
definately got the idea. And yes - often to keep from
doubling the wager amount, you need to make the
"do or die" - "feast or famine" decision.

Thank you for getting the book.

Looking forward to your edit.

sk
.
.

[Jay Trotter]

My Contendars based on first elimination -- no particular order:

r3: 3,4,7
r4: 1,3,4,9
r5: 6,7,9,10
r6: 1,4,6,7,10
r7: 1,2,4
r8: 2,3,5,11

Trotter:cool:

[goforgin]

Edits. Steven, having read your book, I fortunately had a back-up plan in the event of the scratches. Unfortunately, I have a busy afternoon, the Illinios Racing Board has blocked interent wagering to the major tracks and getting around Chicagoland (i.e. construction-land) on time :bang: .......well the back-up plan needs a few more "smoke" tests to rid the OTB gremlins. But, I think I did pretty good given the circumstances.
#4, #7 // #3, #9 // #5, #6 // #7 // #6 // #3, 5
I'll try to beat Get Funky in R5, but now with the shorter field it's a little dicey. R7, maybe the Texas invader can pull it out now that the #7 is scratched.
Good luck to all.

[Jay Trotter]

My Ticket:

7,3 // 4,9 // 9,10 // 4,10 // 4 // 3, 11

[rrpic6]

The last time I tried to conform to someone else's pick 6 structure, it really bit me in the arse. I made a $4.00 pick 6 ticket on Belmont Stakes day to "honor" a gentleman from Turfway Park that claimed to have hit quite a few pick 6's by playing only a $4.00 ticket. I ended up with 4 of 6. The pick 6 payed over 900K that day!

I'll make 2 separate $32 tickets. The first is designed to hit for 50K and over (by not using obvious chalks). The other ticket is strictly for you boys that never bother to use any insight but look for the computer to spit out your plays. BTW..this ticket is chock full of chalks!

Leg A::5:
Leg B::3:,:5:
Leg C::6:,:8:
Leg D::5:,:7:
Leg E::2:
Leg F::3:,:5:

---------------------------

Leg A::4:
Leg B::3:,:9:
Leg C::6:,:10:
Leg D::7:
Leg E::2:,:4:
Leg F::5:,:11:

Good Luck!

RR

[Steven Kolb]

Selections - on the main forum page.
.

[Charlie]

Steven.... I just received your book. I didn't go through Amazon, but rather once again tried Barnes and Noble. This time I was successful. The reason being is that my daughter gave me a Barnes and Noble's gift card for my Birthday. Well anyway, from the little I read, it appears quite interesting. Eventually, I will do a thorough read and when the Meadowlands reopens, I'll be ready. Good fortune with your sales.

[RaceBookJoe]

My book just got here finally. I think the only thing that will take longer for US Media Mail to deliver will be for me to hit a pick 6 haha. I am actually not a pick 6 player...sometimes for fun i fill out a pick 6 ticket and have actually hit a few big hits on paper, most recent last week at Saratoga that ended up as a $41K carryover. The only time i actually made a pick 6 wager, it was a carryover at Del Mar on closing day a couple years back. It was a huge carryover, did my best to keep my ticket within my price range which turned out to be my undoing. I lost the 1st race by a length, hit 4 straight then lost the last leg by 2 lengths. The 2 horses that beat me were in my contender list, i just made the wrong cuts...both were trained/ridden by Sadler/Talamo :bang: OH well there is always a carryover somewhere. rbj

[formula_2002]

http://www.bris.com/cgi-bin/static.cgi?page=trktkout&header=off :)

[formula_2002]

traver's day pick 6

odds (1/(odds+1))/1.19
3.45 0.188839581
7 0.105042017
1.05 0.409920066
4.7 0.147427392
2.45 0.243575691
7.8 0.095492743
2.78829E-05 = $35868 dollar odds to 1

$2 pick six paid $25884.00
you need not only to beat the takeout but the underlay odds :)
and that is not even factoring in the long to short odds biase.

what page of the book details that fact?

[Charlie]

Steven ..... So Far (~page 100), I am finding your Book a very interesting read. Like I've said before, I have many many books on both Harness and Thoroughbred Handicapping, some bad and some good. I am sure that yours will be placed into my GOOD category and well worth its initial investment. By the way, in my opinion 2 informative books concerning the Thoroughbreds are Lehane's Calibration Handicapping and Brad Free's Handicapping 101. Mention of this is made because of a chapter in your book which talks of the importance of learning your trade. But actually, although I have always liked both, I still favor Harness racing.

[shots]

~
Visit the publishers website. Click the second "button."

www.howtowinthepick6.com

There are three excerpts.

There is a chapter on simple handicapping. The book is not
a lesson in handicapping - it is a book about winning the
Pick 6 and what to do once you become a winner.

I included some stories and "fun stuff" to keep it light, and
a crisp - enjoyable read.

Have a great and prosperous weekend.

sk
.
Good quick read. Gives some new insights I hadn't read before. Steven's stories reminded me of "Teach" in the PA harness forum, both can tell good stories.

[Steven Kolb]

Hey Shots! - - Thanks for the kind words!

I am happy the book arrived. :ThmbUp:
Hope you have a take on today's Del Mar Pick 6.
I think it's a straightforward and winnable series.

My LongShot of the day is Race 9 #8 w/ P. Val from off the pace.

Good luck to you and yours!

sk
:

[Charlie]

Steven ... truly enjoyed your book. It's well worth the money. Although it's concerned soley with the Pick 6, doesn't it make sense to tackle Belmont's late PICK 4 on Saturdays? It's worth a guaranteed $300,000. What's your feeling concerning this wager?

[Steven Kolb]

Hey Charlie - thanks for the nice comments.

Yes I play the Pick 4's & 3's. However, to keep my marriage a happy one, I have a budget. (I used to be wild and crazy & it almost cost me a wonderful lady.)

Ideally I'll cap the P6 - make my wager at the OTB / track / TwinSpires: and get on with what I should be doing. The P4 is evaluated if the P6 is too tough.

Best guess is 85% of my $$ = P6 --- the remainder goes to P4's and "gambling" (yuk)

FYI - Thursday - Oct 14th - is a very playable P6 double C/O at Belmont. Some short fields and some possible strong singles.

Take care!

sk

-

[Charlie]

Steven, thus far I have played 4 pic 6s and have had 5 of 6 twice. This is using only $32.00 wagers. In fact in one of these at Golden Gates, I lost the first race by a nose and won the next 5. The winners recieved I believe ~7,000 each while I received $67.00. Oh so close......

[Spiderman]

Do you also reveal tax liability? if someone does not have a need to itemize, he must report losses v. winnings on Schedule A and lose his/her standard deduction. I have learned that winning could be losing.