Pick 4 Data

[Inglewood Flamingo]

Alright guys out there with stats and databases, I was wondering what statistics you can provide me on pick fours, possibly broken down by tracks and dates, the more recent the better. I am looking for the average payoffs, highest to lowest payoff range, versus the parlay, etc. Any info would be greatly appreciated. Thanks!

[sjk]

Sorry I can't help. When I set up my database years ago, there were not nearly as many exotic bets (2-3 trifectas/day on my local track) so I never have tracked exotic prices. Probably would have found it interesting if I had.

[Inglewood Flamingo]

sjk, Thank you any way. Anyone else?...

[sq764]

Can I ask why you would need this data? Its obvious that pick 4 payouts are very much an overlay as compared to win parlays for those 4 races.

[John]

I feel that Pick 4 are a security Blanket for the Pick-6 players.Tough to hit, good payoff, far better than a parlay

[sq764]

I think in about 95% of the cases, the pick 3, 4 and 6 is always a much better payout than the parlay.

I rarely see the opposite happen.

[ceejay]

8/15 at Saratoga, including a $50K carryover going in the Pick 6 paid $319 vs. $437 from the parlay. This Pick 6 was a 27% discount to the paralay. On the same day the P4 paid $83.50 vs. a $79.36 parlay (a 5% premium).

The P6 on 8/7 at Delmar paid $7,768.40. This is clearly a good chunk of change but the $2 Parlay was $13,351.90. The Pick 6 represented a 42% discount to the straight bets!

These paralays ignore breakage but the P6 was clearly poor value in these cases. I'm going to start tracking P6 and P4 payout manually in a spreadsheet for NYRA and SoCal.

[sq764]

Last night I hit an underlay (i thought) pick 3 at Penn National. 2 things that caught my thoughts..

1) The winners were $14.20/$4.60/$27.80 and it paid $310!!
The win parlay on that is $907..

2) The race before the pick 3 started was won by a 3/1 shot, and the pick 4 with this one and the horses above paid $2,200!!

[VetScratch]

Sq764,

At PEN, especially on weeknights, you are dealing with such small P3 and P4 pools that comparisons often look funny. Here are the races you cited:

R6: 8.20
R7: 14.20
R8: 4.60
R9: 27.80

$2-P3: 310.60 (pool = 4198)
$2-P4: 2414.80 (pool = 3354)
The P3 is equivalent to 10 $2-payouts.
The P4 is equivalent to 1 $2-payout.

[wolsons]

SQ764,

If I'm not mistaken, the Pick-3 parlay referred to in your post should have been worth $454 rounded off, not $907. The Pick-3 was still an underlay, but not quite as big.

Steve

[sq764]

Steve, you are right.. (I think I forgot to divide once more..)

I don't feel AS bad now :-)

[John]

STEVE WOLSONS:

Are you the Steve Wolsons, from "Power -on - line" fame. if you are welcome a board.

Regards

[Larry Hamilton]

There is another factor to consider, not mentioned yet, when comparing "fixed" bets to parlays. When you buy a fixed bet on a pick 3 for two bucks, you go to the window ONE time with your money in your hand and put it thru the window. If you are playing a three horse parlay, the first leg wins and pays 500 bucks, do you have the nads to put 500 bucks thru the window?

Consider what might happen on a monster pick 6....you have parlayed 5 in a row with a huge payoff coming in race 5. Now, do you go to the window and hand over your $5,000?

Parlay's value is nad-dependent.

[wolsons]

rocajack,

Yes I am, and thanks for the welcome!

Steve

[Larry Hamilton]

Someone called me and told me that some tracks actually offer a parlay ticket you fill out. MOney only changes hands one time (two if you win). Pretty slick.

[rmania]

Originally posted by ceejay
8/15 at Saratoga, including a $50K carryover going in the Pick 6 paid $319 vs. $437 from the parlay. This Pick 6 was a 27% discount to the paralay. On the same day the P4 paid $83.50 vs. a $79.36 parlay (a 5% premium).

The P6 on 8/7 at Delmar paid $7,768.40. This is clearly a good chunk of change but the $2 Parlay was $13,351.90. The Pick 6 represented a 42% discount to the straight bets!

These paralays ignore breakage but the P6 was clearly poor value in these cases. I'm going to start tracking P6 and P4 payout manually in a spreadsheet for NYRA and SoCal. Something to keep in mind is that P6 $$ reside in a single P6 pool and the payout has nothing to do with the actual odds of each winner.

On the other hand, parlay wagers are those where $$ won are rolled over into the next race win pool.

So let's say the last leg of a P6 was won by a 10/1 shot. If you were still alive with a 6 horse parlay, the aggregate amount of $$ going into the win pool of that race would probably turn that 10/1 shot into an odds-on favorite.

[John]

STEVE WOLSON

You have done some great work over the years.Especially for the weekend players who don't have the time to spend pouring over the racing form. Your methods work for me when I Can concentrate on your rules and look for the best play.

I have just about everything you wrote "Best Bets" "Turf Factor" "Speed Scam" "Jockey Factor" "Beat The Maidens" Etc. All of these have good merit.

Your latest "The Win Factor" I have not ordered yet.I will as soon as I come out of this lousy losing streak. Your flier is very intriguing.

I know by your work that you possess a great wealth of Handicapping knowledge to contribute to this board. I hope the members take advantage of it.

Best regards to you Steve.

[ceejay]

Originally posted by Larry Hamilton
There is another factor to consider, not mentioned yet, when comparing "fixed" bets to parlays. When you buy a fixed bet on a pick 3 for two bucks, you go to the window ONE time with your money in your hand and put it thru the window. If you are playing a three horse parlay, the first leg wins and pays 500 bucks, do you have the nads to put 500 bucks thru the window?

Consider what might happen on a monster pick 6....you have parlayed 5 in a row with a huge payoff coming in race 5. Now, do you go to the window and hand over your $5,000?



No, but poor value is poor value.

[formula_2002]

Originally posted by sq764
Can I ask why you would need this data? Its obvious that pick 4 payouts are very much an overlay as compared to win parlays for those 4 races.

Has anyone seen a pic 4 overlay recently??


Joe M

[sq764]

Well, let's look at yesterday's Arlington Pick 4..

You had winners of :

$5.40
$4.20
$7.60
$32.00


My calucalations put the win parlay somewhere around $689..

The pick 4 paid $3,505!


I think this might fit the 'overlay' category..

[formula_2002]

sq764

If one's edge in the win pool were -15% the fair value for that pic 4 was $18,093.
if your win pool edge were 0%, the fair value is $9444,
if your win pool edge were +10%, the fair value is $6450.

the calculation for the pic 4 fair value with 0% win pool edge is;

1/(odds+1) x 1/(odds+1) X 1/(odds+1) x 1/(odds+1).
leg1--------------leg2--------------leg3------------leg4

I have an interactive pic 4 calculation table on my web page

Joe M

[sq764]

Well I thought this thread involved comparing win parlays with the actual pick 4 payout. You asked about win overlays as compared to parlays.

$3500 is quite an overlay when compared to the parlay payout.

[formula_2002]

Originally posted by sq764
Well I thought this thread involved comparing win parlays with the actual pick 4 payout. You asked about win overlays as compared to parlays.

$3500 is quite an overlay when compared to the parlay payout.

You are correct sq about defining the thread.
But you can't call the $3500 an OVERLAY, unless you attemp to calculate fair value..The pic 4 here, altought exceeding the parlay payoff, may be considered a BETTER return by comparison, but not an overlay.

.

Joe M

[VetScratch]

SQ764,

The concept of overlays is kind of a moot point with respect to multi-race gimmicks except daily doubles.

Overlay detection is accomplished by comparing "value-odds projections" that you trust against actual pari-mutuel odds.

At best, you might pick one or more overlay candidates in the first leg of your P3 or P4.

In any case, attempts to estimate whether a P3 or P4 will be a good value would require toteboard payouts. I have never seen either P3 or P4 payout projections on any of the Internet totes. Have I missed one?

Of course, after the fact, you can easily determine whether your P3 or P4 was a better bet than an imaginary parlay, because if the gimmick payout is really large, the parlay payout is largely imaginary.

How many times do "most" of us walk up to the window pondering whether to launch a 4-race parlay or play a P4? At that level of confidence, I would play both up to the point of risk/reward common sense.

[sq764]

You can catch some pick 3 probables on Youbet.com.. They have a lot of tracks that show the pick 3 will-pays but not all.

I do find it interesting to compare the pick 3 will pays with the ML odds. You can find some interesting 'hot' horses that way.

I believe there was a manual written on that, called 'Mr Trifecta'.

[VetScratch]

Sq764,
How do the P3 will-pays help you before the first leg of your P3 since they only appear before the 3rd leg?

Using will-pays, as you describe, is a last-leg angle for toteboard handicappers. I thought we were talking about evaluating P3 and P4 payouts.

[sq764]

I misread the comment.. I thought the statement was that there were no will pays before the 3rd leg on any internet wagering sites..

[ceejay]

Originally posted by formula_2002
Has anyone seen a pic 4 overlay recently??


Joe M
I'm talking discount/premium, not overlay/underlay.

Over the last few weeks (data from drf.com) at Saratoga and Delmar, 3 of the 22 (14%) Pick 4's were a discount to the parlay. Most recent were 8/16 saratoga and 8/14 del mar. On the other hand, 4 of the 22 samples were premiums of over 100%, all at Del Mar.

4 of the 16 P6's that were hit were discounts to the parlay! 5 of the 6 carry-over's that were hit were premiums, 1 (saratoga 8/15 mentioned above) was a discount.

[VetScratch]

In general, aren't huge-premium parlay payouts largely imaginary when you consider what your bet on the 3rd, 4th or 6th legs would have been?

[Tom]

Anything with 6 or more legs, I step on it quick!:D

[formula_2002]

Originally posted by VetScratch

In any case, attempts to estimate whether a P3 or P4 will be a good value would require toteboard payouts.

Of course you are correct about that.

But if you calculated how many pic 4 overlays you could expect, based upon previous pic 4 results, you could get an idea if it were a bet you would want to make.

By the time you accumulate sufficient data to make such a decision, I think hell will have been frozen over for some time.

Joe M

[ceejay]

Originally posted by formula_2002
Of course you are correct about that.

But if you calculated how many pic 4 overlays you could expect, based upon previous pic 4 results, you could get an idea if it were a bet you would want to make.

By the time you accumulate sufficient data to make such a decision, I think hell will have been frozen over for some time.

Joe M

How many samples would you expect are needed for statistical significance?

[formula_2002]

Originally posted by ceejay
How many samples would you expect are needed for statistical significance?

An example;
0 volatility in the win pool odds
pick 4 odds =200-1
you break even in the win pool

99% certain to win 1/2 of 1 % of your bets
would require you to tabulate 50 million pic 4's with those exacta condition.

see

"TABLE DETERMINES CONFIDENCE LEVELS FOR YOUR DATA"
on my web page

The # of races required for review can be less if you decrease the odds and increase your win pool profit capability..

[hurrikane]

I believe the P4 to be one of the best bets in racing. like anything you have to have some parameters.

a meaningfull pool. anyone betting a p4 at pen, or ct, or any other minor track is going to take it in the shorts. How can you produce profits fighting for a $5,000 pool. Minimun pool of 20k. I'd even go higher.
I am of the mind that no exotic bets a minor tracks are worth the play. Pools are too small and I always feel they should pay higher than they do. This is the one place I play win only.

You have to know how to structure tickets based on the types of races in the p4. every play is different.



Damn Joe, I thought you moved on to greener (crap table) pastures.

Ok, everyone..all together now

GO TO MY WEBSITE!.

Gee, really missed you Joe.

[sq764]

I totally disagree with you that all exotic bets into small pools are bad.

In actuality, they can be fantastic.

I play Rosecroft (small harness track in MD for any that don't know). I believe pools don't exceed $4 or 5K.. And if you watch the exacta pays closely, you can make a killing. I have hit 3/1 over 4/1 paying $100.. And the win overlays are there too, especially for longshots. A horse at Meadowlands that would be 15/1 may be 45/1 at a track like Rosecroft.

[John]

Can you say the same for the trifecta.

I got this e-mail from a friend, Yesterday.

John,
I hate to moan and groan but I got screwed over so bad Saturday, it almost made me quit racing.

It happened in race 5 at Ellis Park on Saturday. Check it out on Equibase.
Believe it or not, I had the trifecta. The winner paid $98.40!!! It was a ten
horse race. The winner was 48-1, the second horse was even money, and the third
horse was 8-1. Before they put up the prices, Nicky asked me if would take
three thousand dollars for the ticket. How much do YOU think it should have paid.

The $1 trifecta paid $939.00
Bob

[sq764]

And that trifecta poll had $102,000 in it..


So do we now say 'minimum pool of $150,000?'

and thus put us all at Belmont, Aqu, Sar, Delmar, Santa Anita and Hollywood??

Doesn't sound very interesting to me.

[hurrikane]

There is no doubt you can find overlays and nice payouts at the minor tracks. But overall I don't believe so.

this I suppose will take a little study. I don't play chariot races but know Roscroft very well (simulcast). How many $100 exactas you think they have there in a night. Crap, maybe one a week. But that's anouther story.

My point was..and going back to the pick 4. If are you going to bet into a P4 pool at Pen you are going to lose. Last night the pool in the two p4s at PEN were $938 and $1380.

How can you possibly expect to make any money when the pool is that small.

so, my original statement was

you have to have a meaningful pool

you have to know how to structure bets.

I stand by that.

[sq764]

I agree with your statement on pick 4's and supers, but to say all exotics is just an inaccurate statement.

For example, here are the exacta payouts for Saturday at Saratoga:

$33.40
$31.40
$144.00
$11.00
$18.20
$70.50
$34.40
$53.00
$175.00
$82.00

(average payout of $65.29)

Here are Rosecroft's Saturday exacta payouts:

$187.80
$50.60
$13.60
$90.80
$63.60
$158.20
$38.60
$61.60
$18.00
$7.00
$8.40

(Avg payout $63.47)

[hurrikane]

sq,
I can't really comment on roscroft as I don't play, follow or care about the chariot races.

The key I suppose to all of this is being able to see the payouts before you bet.
With an exacta you can say this combination has value because you can see the payout before you bet.

With the Px races (and even the Triple)you don't have that luxury and the only way to assure some meaningful payout is if there is a meaningful pool to play into.

[sq764]

I agree with you.. I was just disputing the notion of saying ALL exotic bets into small pools are a bad idea. I think its the opposite, as you can find major overlays if you watch the payouts closely.

I always get a chuckle out of those people that think winning $100 at Del Mar or Saratoga is better than $100 at Rosecroft or Charlestown.

They spend the same in my town..

[ceejay]

Another carry-over payout that is a discount to parlay 8/21 at Saratoga. $53K carryover, $20811 payoff, $21139 parlay. 2% discount.

[sq764]

What would it calculate to if you took the money paid for 5/6 out of the equation?

[Jeff P]

I believe the P4 to be one of the best bets in racing. like anything you have to have some parameters.

a meaningfull pool. anyone betting a p4 at pen, or ct, or any other minor track is going to take it in the shorts.
How can you produce profits fighting for a $5,000 pool. Minimun pool of 20k. I'd even go higher.
I am of the mind that no exotic bets a minor tracks are worth the play. Pools are too small and I always feel they
should pay higher than they do. This is the one place I play win only.

Hurrikane-

Have to take a contrarian stand against here. I genuinely enjoy going after pick 3s and pick 4s at minor tracks like Emerald, Turf Paradise, Turfway, etc. I find there is often value to be had- mainly because the number of other players chasing the pot is always smaller. Have cashed some nice ones - a handful of times ending up with the only winning tickets and sweeping the pool. Occasionally I'll manage to cash a pick 3 at a minor track with 2 of 3 or get paid while having only 3 of 4 on a pick 4.

Knowing a minor circuit well can give you an edge over other simulcast players who don't take the time to learn the intricacies of your particular circuit.

Of course, you still have to understand how to structure your tickets and know when to go for it and when to sit and watch.

[ceejay]

Originally posted by sq764
What would it calculate to if you took the money paid for 5/6 out of the equation?

I don't know how to implement that type of evaluation. It seems like there would be too many variables.

[sq764]

Isn't the 5/6 payout a fixed portion of the pool along with the amount of winning tickets?

[ceejay]

That part's easy, but you lose the parlay in which leg? You lose the parlay with 5 of 6. Or do you take 1/6 of your profits from the parlay out each leg?

If you bet a $2 pick 6 that wins you don't get the 5 of 6 and that is what I'm comparing to so my evaluation is internally consistent.

My goal here is to establish what odds rannges (if any) we would expect discounts, and the best premiums.

[freeneasy]

santa anita, holly, gg, bm, and dm. just pic up a card. thing is if you want to play a 3 race parlay with 3 horses in each leg then you have to fill out 27 seperate tickets.