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View Full Version : Speaking of morning line oddsmakers...


markgoldie
07-18-2010, 01:42 PM
Today's (7/18) Race #5 Monmouth:

#8 Glazed Wings is installed as the 5-2 early line choice. By what rational method of handicapping is this possible??

horses4courses
07-18-2010, 01:53 PM
Apart from having a trainer who is sharp off the claim, and a 28% rider at the meet, there is little to recommend this one off the layoff.
I figure he should be twice those odds......

xfile
07-18-2010, 02:09 PM
A morning line is what the oddsmaker believes is how the betting public will go at that particular track. In a sense the oddsmaker is actually handicapping the betting public. Each track's oddsmaker has his reasons and beliefs of what his track's players will do. This would included popular trainers, jockey, etc and is all part of making the line.

xfile
07-18-2010, 02:20 PM
From the Arlington Park website:
"Keep in mind that the morning line odds do not reflect the odds maker's selections, they are merely a prediction of how the betting public will wager on the race. Although I do my best to calculate accurate early odds, some races are tougher to assign odds values on than others."

http://www.arlingtonpark.com/node/10222

markgoldie
07-18-2010, 02:25 PM
Understood. But the public also handicaps a wee bit. This particular horse has never won past 5.5 f, tries a route for the first time when 6f seems to be too long. Doubles in claiming price, is off 58 days with one walking workout. Is rated next to last on the Brisnet Prime Power algorithm, etc.

So the track handicapper thinks this horse will be the favorite. Okay. Fine. WHY?

xfile
07-18-2010, 02:26 PM
Why don't you email him and ask him

markgoldie
07-18-2010, 03:07 PM
I did. He said he knew the horse would get beaten by 20 lengths as he did, but he thought he might get some value betting against him.

cj
07-18-2010, 03:19 PM
I did. He said he knew the horse would get beaten by 20 lengths as he did, but he thought he might get some value betting against him.

Are you seriously saying the morning line maker admitted he made a line to try to create better value for himself? I find that hard to believe, but if true that is a pretty serious knock on his integrity.

markgoldie
07-18-2010, 03:27 PM
Since no ML oddsmaker would ever say such a thing, I thought this was pretty obvious as a joke. But apparently not. Okay. IT WAS A JOKE. :D :D

Overlay
07-18-2010, 05:14 PM
Obviously, manipulating the morning line for the linemaker's own benefit would be unethical. But don't linemakers skew the line all the time for the track's benefit by placing artificial lower and upper limits on ML odds in order to promote betting action on all the interests in the race (even if they're supposedly predicting how the public will bet, rather than giving their own opinion of each horse's chances)?

Robert Goren
07-18-2010, 06:02 PM
He did go off at 7/2. As they say in the poker world "dead money".

tribecaagent
07-18-2010, 06:17 PM
Today's (7/18) Race #5 Monmouth:

#8 Glazed Wings is installed as the 5-2 early line choice. By what rational method of handicapping is this possible??

Mark, Brad Thomas is the track handicapper and morning line odds maker. He's as smart, sharp, and straight as they come.

Robert Fischer
07-18-2010, 06:29 PM
good thread


I like an oddsmaker to handicap the PUBLIC, not the horse. :ThmbUp:

cj
07-18-2010, 06:37 PM
Since no ML oddsmaker would ever say such a thing, I thought this was pretty obvious as a joke. But apparently not. Okay. IT WAS A JOKE. :D :D

I did think you were joking of course, but you never know.

markgoldie
07-18-2010, 08:05 PM
He did go off at 7/2. As they say in the poker world "dead money".
Yeah, 7-2. Think this means the ML has more effect than we think??

thaskalos
07-18-2010, 08:16 PM
Yeah, 7-2. Think this means the ML has more effect than we think??Doubtful...but it might mean that, in some cases, the linemaker knows more than we give him credit for...

exiles
07-18-2010, 08:35 PM
Today's (7/18) Race #5 Monmouth:

#8 Glazed Wings is installed as the 5-2 early line choice. By what rational method of handicapping is this possible??

I believe the morning line at Monmouth is made by Brad Thomas probably the best handicapper and most knowledgeable person in the business, so if BRAD says 5/2 5/2 it is.

fmolf
07-18-2010, 09:32 PM
i have found other m/l's at monmouth that i scratch my head when i see them but i never ever look at the morning line after the initial paring of the field.I think perhaps he is used to monmouth when the pools were a lot smaller with less sophisticated monies in them.