Hollywood Park Longshots (Closing Day)

[rmania]

It will be difficult to top yesterday's longshot picks (a $28 winner and a $60 winner) but here goes...

Race 5 - :9: Thunder Bubbles (20-1 M/L)

Race 10 - :6: Ata Honour (30-1 M/L)

Both are scheduled to be ridden by Julio Garcia but hey stranger things have happened..

[RaceBookJoe]

It will be difficult to top yesterday's longshot picks (a $28 winner and a $60 winner) but here goes...

Race 5 - :9: Thunder Bubbles (20-1 M/L)

Race 10 - :6: Ata Honour (30-1 M/L)

Both are scheduled to be ridden by Julio Garcia but hey stranger things have happened..

Those were some nice ones yesterday...great job. Would it be too much for me to ask your thought process in why you feel these longshots have a chance...or is that prying too much into your process? thanks rbj

[rmania]

Those were some nice ones yesterday...great job. Would it be too much for me to ask your thought process in why you feel these longshots have a chance...or is that prying too much into your process? thanks rbj
I don't mind sharing my thought process, I just have to be careful in what I say. I have kind of an unusual relationship with the owner of this website. Over the years he has never had an issue with my posting of longshot plays (espeiallly when then come through) but he often has issues when I discuss how I do it.

I guees if speak in typical handicapping terms I should be okay.

Race 5 - :9: Thunder Bubbles: His last two races (both at 1 1/16 miles) have seemingly been used to insert some sprinter speed. In fact, his adjusted 1/2 mile times for both of those races are faster than the rest of the field (at least their last race time). I like the switch from route to sprint when the horse has flashed speed in the routes.

Race 10 - :6: Ata Honour: Even though his last race was at PLN, the purse was more than today's purse so I don't consider this one to be a "cheap outsider".
And speaking of that last race, the adjusted final time was faster than any in this group.

Like I said..stranger things have happened.

[RaceBookJoe]

I don't mind sharing my thought process, I just have to be careful in what I say. I have kind of an unusual relationship with the owner of this website. Over the years he has never had an issue with my posting of longshot plays (espeiallly when then come through) but he often has issues when I discuss how I do it.

I guees if speak in typical handicapping terms I should be okay.

Race 5 - :9: Thunder Bubbles: His last two races (both at 1 1/16 miles) have seemingly been used to insert some sprinter speed. In fact, his adjusted 1/2 mile times for both of those races are faster than the rest of the field (at least their last race time). I like the switch from route to sprint when the horse has flashed speed in the routes.

Race 10 - :6: Ata Honour: Even though his last race was at PLN, the purse was more than today's purse so I don't consider this one to be a "cheap outsider".
And speaking of that last race, the adjusted final time was faster than any in this group.

Like I said..stranger things have happened.

I understand your position, and thank you for your reasonings on handicapping certain horses. I wish more people would explain why they pick a horse instead of just putting up a name or number. I like to try to understand the why's and not just the who's. I'm hoping to do the same with the Saratoga meet coming up. Here's to your horses finishing first. :ThmbUp:
rbj

[mistered7]

EARLY PICK 4
1--- :4: :7:
2--- :1: :7: :9:
3--- :2: :4: :6:
4--- :3: :4:

LATE PICK 4
7--- :6: :7: :9:
8--- :2: :5: :6:
9--- :2: :3: :7:
10--- :8: :13: :14:

[surfdog89]

I have to agree it is better for the players to post why they like there picks.
When people post numbers I just pass reading that post.

[redeye007]

they scratched your LS in the 10th :mad:

[rmania]

they scratched your LS in the 10th :mad:
Well let's just throw another one out there...

Race 10 - :1: I Owe Ume (30-1 M/L)

[BleedsDodgerBlue]

Noticed that both your picks were 5 year old maidens.
It's not that usual to FIND 5 year old maidens, and even more unusual for them to win.
Were you aware of their ages?

[Greyfox]

Well let's just throw another one out there...

Race 10 - :1: I Owe Ume (30-1 M/L)

How about playing # :2: I Owe Ume.

[rmania]

How about playing # :2: I Owe Ume.
Yeah, you're right..It's number 2...I was thinking the 1 post postion and it transfered to my typing. Sorry bout that.

[rmania]

Noticed that both your picks were 5 year old maidens.
It's not that usual to FIND 5 year old maidens, and even more unusual for them to win.
Were you aware of their ages?
Too be honest, I did not realize they were 5 yos. Was just going on their form.

[bigmack]

Over the years he has never had an issue with my posting of longshot plays (espeiallly when then come through) but he often has issues when I discuss how I do it.
That sounds hard to believe.

[jamey1977]

Too be honest, I did not realize they were 5 yos. Was just going on their form.
You can earn a living. You can pick those longshots. You need just 17 percent wins at 20 dollars average over a 3 month period. Can you achieve this? I'm going total longshot. Screw the 5 to 2's. I have 3 months to get 17 percent wins at 20 dollars average. I started on July 1st - South. Calif. circuit only. So far. 9 wins from 57 Longshot plays. 24 dollar average. I'm ready for long losing streaks. Some guy told me he lost 28 in a row, damn. He got out of it though. Heck 2 Longshot winners, you're out of any streak. How do you do ? Are you pro?

[PaceAdvantage]

That sounds hard to believe.It should.

Read over the latest "issue" I had with him and tell me if this at all jibes with what he just wrote above:

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=72555