Santa Anita Derby

[Tom]

I am looking at this racce strictly ffrom a speed figure standpoint. I think Point given, I Love Silver, Crafty C.T. and Palmeiro will bounce.
I think Scorpion will improve to a high 90 Beyer and I think Early Flyer can improve.
Startac and Cherokee Kim arre no factors.
If Early flyer does improve, he should run from a 102-109, outside chance for higher. Scorpion will run 95-99, but probably not much higher. To win, Scorpion has to hope Early Flyer sends too early and "paces" himself out. Point Given will probably have enought to run second in any scenerio.
The bet here is Early Flyer to win and Scorpion to win, 60-40 and an exacta box of those two with Point Given.
If Ealrt sccratches in favor of the Cal Derby, this one becomes a watch race, unless Scorpion is 8-1 or better.
Tom

[PaceAdvantage]

It's too bad the track is going to be off for this one. I don't usually play off tracks, but I am going to handicap this one and post an opinion in a little while, complete with my figures.....


==PA

[PaceAdvantage]

No real surprises here...although Crafty CT came up a bit light on my numbers....

RAC50407.SAX DIST= 9 f CLASS=GST
PROGR NUM/NAME RS Q ODDS BL1 BL2 BL3 T1 T2 T3 TT LF DSL AP %E
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(1)POINT GIVEN S 3 2.2 3.19 1.57 0.00 47.7 71.1 109.6 56.35 52.36 21 54.88 51.73
(2)I LOVE SILVE S 4 4.5 8.34 6.08 2.15 48.7 72.0 110.0 56.66 53.02 21 54.54 51.05
(5)SCORPION E/P6 7.4 0.00 0.00 4.01 47.0 70.8 110.4 55.58 50.86 20 54.68 53.35
(3)CRAFTY C. T. E 8 13.4 2.57 3.90 5.99 47.5 71.6 110.8 54.96 51.77 35 54.45 52.27
(4)STARTAC P 3 37.2 8.78 9.63 9.50 48.8 72.7 111.5 55.19 51.96 28 53.86 51.72
(7)PALMEIRO E/P7 44.6 3.47 4.81 9.84 47.7 71.7 111.6 54.96 50.98 35 54.15 52.78
(8)CHEROKEE KIM S 0 297.7 12.96 15.79 16.78 49.6 73.9 113.0 54.28 51.66 28 53.10 51.38


Track is rated as sloppy right now....don't know how SA plays when it's soaked as I haven't been watching SA closely this meeting...if speed is going well, I think Scorpion might have a much better chance at huge odds. He would be my value play....I'm sure Point Given will not go off at high enough odds to warrant a bet. I Love Silver could also offer value. If Scorpion is anywhere near his M/L, he's a bet, as would be I Love Silver if he goes off over 9/2....Good luck everyone!!


==PA

[Tom]

Did I say Point given would bounce???
Bounce higher than ever, if anything.
What a performance.