Handicapping Question - Breaking

[Pacingguy]

I have a question regarding breaking. When I first started playing harness racing, one of the basic rules is never bet on a horse that broke the week before. Of course, there were exceptions, such as an obvious speed break when a horse jumped off of ridiculous fractions. Sure enough, they often jumped the following week.

Does this 'rule' have any type of merit anymore; epecially with pacers or do you just toss the race and look at the others? I see how thir rule may still apply with green horses and young trotters, but once you get into pacers, this rule doesn't seem to apply anymore?

Anyone have thoughts?

[markgoldie]

In 2008, I ran an extensive study on horse performance following a break in stride. The barometer I used was how the horse finished in his subsequent race realtive to his odds' position. That is, did the horse perform as well as the public expected, the same, or worse?

The answer is, worse by a substantial margin. The only exception is when a trotter adds the trotting hobbles in the subsequent race. These horses actually out-performed the bettors' expectation.

I should also say that the study was designed so that a re-breaking horse was not penalized for the full difference in finish vs. public expectation. For ex., if the public made the horse the favorite and he finished last due to a break, I would not consider the performance as a -7, let's say, where -7 would indicate 7 positions worse than expected (if he finished 8th). This would skew the exercise since horses who did stay flat would have to make up this -7 by a series of good + performances. Instead, I simply considered the break as a -1 performance. Even so, the aggregate was negative by over one position worse than expected.

So the short answer is, yes. Breaking is a bad sign for prospective performance.

[wilderness]

Years ago I used to play an "angle" based upon gender during the coldest months, in which I would play back after a break. At the time, there were perhaps a dozen or so plays at my home track.

Over the years, the occurrence of these plays has diminished drastically.

[willphorse]

I will usually look at see today's level of competition, and see how the horse fits. Usually a breaker, out of a good barn, will come back, as the trainer seems to "Fix" The problem.

Breakers are usually good overlays, especially if the "Shoe Fits" next out classwise. The trainer plays a HUGE roll in how the horse comes back.

Just my opinion, and how I handicap. Very curious to see others perceptions of this!

[toetoe]

Mark,

I loved a horse in Tuesday's tenth at Yonkers.

Art Star (?) was listed at 15/1, and I figured it was a two-horse race between him and the favorite on the rail. After a great effort from post :7: two weeks ago, last week's race from the same postage was practically a no-go. To me it was perfectly excusable, and the only reason I can imagine for the high morning line.

Anyway, he rallied to get second at 10/1, a neck shy of the favorite.



So, I guess I'm wondering how bullring darksiders coming off no-go's from postage :7: or :8: perform with subsequent postage relief.

[sonnyp]

one thing you guys should be taking into account in this discussion is the predicament faced by the connections of a horse back in to race off a break.

many horses in this situation are raced in a very conservative manner the next time out so as to avoid the "requalifying" rule. this rule states any horse making breaks in two consecutive races over a fast track must go thru a requalifying race before they can be entered in a betting race.

"just get him around the track" becomes a high priority so as to avoid the time consuming process of missing at least a week of racing to perform in a qualifier for the judges.

[Dick Powell]

Sonny, you took the words right out of my mouth. I love to see a horse that broke, then the next time out they just want to stay flat. If they draw well, they are very live and usually at generous odds since the race they stayed flat was usually an even, flat race. This rule, for me, applies to trotters that broke; not pacers.

[markgoldie]

Mark,

I loved a horse in Tuesday's tenth at Yonkers.

Art Star (?) was listed at 15/1, and I figured it was a two-horse race between him and the favorite on the rail. After a great effort from post :7: two weeks ago, last week's race from the same postage was practically a no-go. To me it was perfectly excusable, and the only reason I can imagine for the high morning line.

Anyway, he rallied to get second at 10/1, a neck shy of the favorite.



So, I guess I'm wondering how bullring darksiders coming off no-go's from postage :7: or :8: perform with subsequent postage relief.
At most half-mile tracks, unless a horse has extreme early speed, leaving from an outside post is a death sentence. Therefore, what you characterize as a "no-go" is mainly just good sense. When such horse draws inside, he will be extended to at least protect his position. This makes it seem like now he is "live," whereas he wasn't from the outside.

The answer as to how you now judge the horse's chances is too complex to go over in full. However, one thing you should keep in mind is that the outside post "no-go" can lead to some clues as to the horse's current form. You want to see some kind of forward movement. In fact, this concept of forward movement is key to handicapping half-milers. Since lengthages on HMTs are so compressed as compared to larger ovals, any loss of ground without movement should be viewed as an extremely negative sign. Some of your best value plays will be found by playing against dropping horses with lack of forward movement. A horse who drops lengths in the stretch while following along the rail is mulitple classes away from winning form.

[RaceTrackDaddy]

It is all about the individual horse itself.

Meadow Val used to race in the Meadows distaff invite trot week after week. She was very head strong and very sensitive to things that blow onto the track. She was a front running trotter who won more than she lost. The times she lost was due to her seeing a scrap of paper or hot dog wrapper that blew across the track.

I started to check the weather on her days of racing. Sure enough, in windy weather she would usually break. Over her career, she tended to be more of a luke warm favorite than odds on due to her irratic nature. I bet her on calm days and bet against her on windy, stormy days. That was back in the days of Herman Hylkema (who hired a teenager named David back in the 70's). That David is now in the hall of fame...Dave Palone.

There are other similar stories about track condition or injury. Horses break for a reason on most occassions. If you can determine the causation, you will have a key to that horse in future races.

[toetoe]

A horse who drops lengths in the stretch while following along the rail is mulitple classes away from winning form.


:ThmbUp: . I think Art Star showed a bit of movement in his bad 7-hole race.