Key Races

[vtbob]

As you know, whenever two or more horses from a given race go on to win their next outings, the race is considered (by some) a Key Race. That is, one which may have been more competitive than appears at first glance. One in which other horses should be given a second look. Some people think this is just coincidence at work. Others, me included, think the race yields significant handicapping information.

Here's a dramatic example. In the 3rd at Monmouth on 9/12/09, The Cognac Kid ran fifth in the race and didn't run again until the 6th at Monmouth on 5/31/2010. However, FIVE other horses from the September race went on to win their next outing. The Cognac Kid not only won the 6th at Monmouth on 5/31, but he paid a WHOPPING $210.20!

[Force of One]

For what it's worth, I take a slightly different approach:

When I keep my charts, I also note any horse that may not have won but ran competitively (say withing 2-3 lengths of the winner or overcame trouble to finish well). Also I mark down any type of changes of importance (shortening up, turf to dirt, drop in class, etc).
Class drops are especially important to me - if a horse drops from a Grade 3 to a $20k claiming race and wins, I think that could give an over-inflated picture of how "key" that performance was. If you are just noting "won next out" I think it could be misleading.....just my two cents.

[cj]

I think there is something to key races, but a horse laying off for nearly nine months then switching surfaces isn't one I'd want credit to a "key race".

[Fastracehorse]

I think there is something to key races, but a horse laying off for nearly nine months then switching surfaces isn't one I'd want credit to a "key race".

....................................or even the surface switch.

The point is that the horse came out of a key race - which in my mind doesn't become irrelevant because of the layoff.

Also, I don't ignore the surface switches - ALOT of horses can make them.

fffastt

[Fastracehorse]

For what it's worth, I take a slightly different approach:

When I keep my charts, I also note any horse that may not have won but ran competitively (say withing 2-3 lengths of the winner or overcame trouble to finish well). Also I mark down any type of changes of importance (shortening up, turf to dirt, drop in class, etc).
Class drops are especially important to me - if a horse drops from a Grade 3 to a $20k claiming race and wins, I think that could give an over-inflated picture of how "key" that performance was. If you are just noting "won next out" I think it could be misleading.....just my two cents.

........for me is to uncover price horses. This is done by finding horses that ran better than they LOOK in the PP's.

Emburs Song won a race at Kee and this has proven to be a lucrative key race just based on what I said above.

fffastt

[46zilzal]

Horses signal being competitive from their performances. When there are more than a few together, this concept evolved. Flawed, it is does not show the results it has been touted to show.

[Dan Montilion]

I have written my thoughts on the key race handicapping tool on my web site http://socaltrackrecord.com. Click on free commentary.

[JBmadera]

I have written my thoughts on the key race handicapping tool on my web site http://socaltrackrecord.com. Click on free commentary.

WOW!! Where the heck have I been - I loved the old nor cal track record, it was the bible for that circuit. I didn't even know that you were now down south.

jb

[Dan Montilion]

WOW!! Where the heck have I been - I loved the old nor cal track record, it was the bible for that circuit. I didn't even know that you were now down south.

jb
We are just now starting to get the word out. Thanks for the kind words about the Northern California Track Record.

[Tom]

Nice Dan! :ThmbUp:

[markgoldie]

I have been using a variation of this for years. In fact, Beyer in one of his early books credited his friend Steve Davidowitz with "inventing' the key race theory. This ws something of a revelation to me, since I was using a more comprehensive form of it for many years before Beyer's book came out.

In short, what I do is keep all charts. When a horse races from that chart, I go to it and mark the animal's performance as to +, -, or even. This is basically an analysis of how the horse performed relative to expectations. For want of a simpler yardstick, we may use odds' position versus the finish position.

This yields far more information than simply return winners from a given event. It may offer extreme value when horses who do not win, have consistently out-performed their expectations. When a new horse runs back from such a chart, I give him special attention. I dubbed this the "class-crossfile system." Takes some effort but will yield value.

[Fastracehorse]

I have been using a variation of this for years. In fact, Beyer in one of his early books credited his friend Steve Davidowitz with "inventing' the key race theory. This ws something of a revelation to me, since I was using a more comprehensive form of it for many years before Beyer's book came out.

In short, what I do is keep all charts. When a horse races from that chart, I go to it and mark the animal's performance as to +, -, or even. This is basically an analysis of how the horse performed relative to expectations. For want of a simpler yardstick, we may use odds' position versus the finish position.

This yields far more information than simply return winners from a given event. It may offer extreme value when horses who do not win, have consistently out-performed their expectations. When a new horse runs back from such a chart, I give him special attention. I dubbed this the "class-crossfile system." Takes some effort but will yield value.

...........I wanted to devise a numerical number ( speed figure ) to determine how well a horse ran in a key race ( any race ).

This would cut down the work; and actually be more effective because it would identify horses with value and ability, that might be glossed-over by key race theory.

That is why speed figures are so important.

fffastt

[Fastracehorse]

I have written my thoughts on the key race handicapping tool on my web site http://socaltrackrecord.com. Click on free commentary.

........that Steve was looking for signals pointing to future winners; and that this fact was 'lost' on most 'cappers. Improving speed by a horse on the turn vs. a key race winner would be a double-threat for value.

fffastt

[KingChas]

Been using this angle for years mainly at the Spa,with all the shippers.
Always seem to catch a couple nice ones from CD 2yr old races and MP turf races.

[Java Gold@TFT]

I use key races often in 2yo mdns. Last year I think the key race for them was run at Chirchill with Balktalk being the winner. I hit Dublin when he came to Sratoga after finishing 4th in that race. All 4 of the top finishers won next out and there may have been more below that I didn't find.

[Dave Schwartz]

I have written my thoughts on the key race handicapping tool on my web site http://socaltrackrecord.com. Click on free commentary.

Dan,

Good to hear about this. I'll certainly help spread the word.

It certainly makes me think of Ron Cox. What a good man he was.

You guys were partners at one time, right?

Dave

[Dan Montilion]

Dan,

Good to hear about this. I'll certainly help spread the word.

It certainly makes me think of Ron Cox. What a good man he was.

You guys were partners at one time, right?

Dave
Thanks Dave. Yes Ron was a good man. A truly outstanding handicapper and player. I was a subscriber to Ron's Northern California Track Record. At 28 I decided to try full time play called Ron, he became my mentor and eventually I became co-editor of the NCTR. Ron told me a story about you helping out his slightly diminished bankroll on the black jack table at one of the fine Reno casinos.

[xfile]

I have noticed positive results on horses exiting key races even if it finished last or next to last in that race. Of course there are a lot of other factors that need to be in place but with all things equal it is still a plus factor.