Belmont vs Saratoga

[soupman2]

I am obviously a lurker on this site. But, you have taught me a lot. Once upon a time I bet birthdays, favorite numbers, and when the sun would come up. I now try to manage my "bankroll" and keep records. I make bets based on potential return now. This year I have more than doubled the amount that I bet at Belmont. This follows a year that I was 3/4 better than what I bet. (this year my calculations is +1.03). This is by far my best track.

So, my question is, in the past I have crapped out at Saratoga. Basiclly the same trainers with the same horses. What do you look for at Saratoga that is/isn't present at Belmont?

[PhantomOnTour]

Main difference is the track configuration. Belmont runs everything up to 9f around one turn while Saratoga runs up to 7.5f around one turn. Some horses have a clear preference for one or the other.
Shippers make the Spa a tough place to win since they are plenty and from far and wide....Kentucky, AP, Philly, Mth and even California...everywhere. Do some homework on Mth this year as many will ship to the Spa.
Then there's the trainer stuff...some simply shoot for this meet and repeat the same moves (basically) year after year.

[Hoofless_Wonder]

Soupman - love the reference to birthdays. When I first started playing the ponies back in the mid-80's, some of my friends (and my mom) used to box their birthdays and license plate numbers back when trifectas were only offered once or twice on the card. Some big winners for them occasionally.:D

Anyway, one thing to keep in mind is that you probably CASH tickets LESS OFTEN at Saratoga, so it may seem you're getting shredded when in fact you should be getting a higher price when you do cash. For me, I might bet 6-7 races on typical Belmont card, cash 3-4 of them (small bets, saver exactas, across the board or whatever). At Saratoga, I might bet 6-7 races but only cash once or twice - but often those returns are enough to break even or profit for the day. Because of the less frequent wins, one strategy I use at the Spa to help me is to back off the multi-race wagers, and concentrate more on playing small tri or exacta wheels instead.

Here's some more thoughts in a recent thread on why Saratoga is "harder"....

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=72073&highlight=saratoga

[RaceBookJoe]

I am obviously a lurker on this site. But, you have taught me a lot. Once upon a time I bet birthdays, favorite numbers, and when the sun would come up. I now try to manage my "bankroll" and keep records. I make bets based on potential return now. This year I have more than doubled the amount that I bet at Belmont. This follows a year that I was 3/4 better than what I bet. (this year my calculations is +1.03). This is by far my best track.

So, my question is, in the past I have crapped out at Saratoga. Basiclly the same trainers with the same horses. What do you look for at Saratoga that is/isn't present at Belmont?

One thing you will find at Saratoga that you find as much at Belmont is that a lot of the people who go there/bet dont really follow the races...tourists or locals looking for the excitement of the place. Lots of "dumb money" i guess you can call it...Del Mar gets its share also. I have always preferred the end of the meet compared the the beginning of the meet. First week i find tougher due to all of the shippers, esp coming from the synthetics and not knowing how the Saratoga track is running variant wise.

For years i used a well=known spot play for horses coming from Belmont. Look for front runners from Belmont who faded in the stretch...the shorter Saratoga stretch might help them esp if they are the main front speed/cutting back a touch in distance/ or the typical class drop/jockey switch. Its an old fashioned play..but once in a while it works. End of the meet i always look for horses shipping in that really dont need to, first timers by top trainers ie Jerkins, or a horse coming from a smaller track. I am sure that Tom can give us some insights on the olbligatory Finger Lakes bomb that always comes to Saratoga. rbj

[NTamm1215]

Belmont runs everything up to 9f around one turn while Saratoga runs up to 7.5f around one turn. Some horses have a clear preference for one or the other.

Saratoga runs one turn races up to 7 furlongs.


For years i used a well=known spot play for horses coming from Belmont. Look for front runners from Belmont who faded in the stretch...the shorter Saratoga stretch might help them esp if they are the main front speed/cutting back a touch in distance/ or the typical class drop/jockey switch. Its an old fashioned play..but once in a while it works. End of the meet i always look for horses shipping in that really dont need to, first timers by top trainers ie Jerkins, or a horse coming from a smaller track. I am sure that Tom can give us some insights on the olbligatory Finger Lakes bomb that always comes to Saratoga. rbj

I agree about the influx of uninformed money, especially opening weekend and each and every Sunday. The only issue I had with your theory about the stretch is that Belmont's stretch is shorter than Saratoga.

NT

[matthewsiv]

The track and surface are different and obviously horses ship in from everywhere to race at Saratoga.

[Cratos]

I am obviously a lurker on this site. But, you have taught me a lot. Once upon a time I bet birthdays, favorite numbers, and when the sun would come up. I now try to manage my "bankroll" and keep records. I make bets based on potential return now. This year I have more than doubled the amount that I bet at Belmont. This follows a year that I was 3/4 better than what I bet. (this year my calculations is +1.03). This is by far my best track.

So, my question is, in the past I have crapped out at Saratoga. Basiclly the same trainers with the same horses. What do you look for at Saratoga that is/isn't present at Belmont?

Saratoga is a “gold fish bowl” for shippers with trainers coming in from many different tracks with their horses primed to win “now.”

This is not to say that trainers who ship in to Belmont don’t want to win or do not try and win, but it does say the prestige and short meet at the Spa changes the winning equation for many trainers.

[alhattab]

I am obviously a lurker on this site. But, you have taught me a lot. Once upon a time I bet birthdays, favorite numbers, and when the sun would come up. I now try to manage my "bankroll" and keep records. I make bets based on potential return now. This year I have more than doubled the amount that I bet at Belmont. This follows a year that I was 3/4 better than what I bet. (this year my calculations is +1.03). This is by far my best track.

So, my question is, in the past I have crapped out at Saratoga. Basiclly the same trainers with the same horses. What do you look for at Saratoga that is/isn't present at Belmont?

Take all Belmont form with a grain of salt. That includes the dirt route races as previously mentioned, but also the grass races particularly those run on the Saratoga Inner Turf, which is 7F around. Some of the gallopers that excel at Belmont may not care for the 7F grass course. It pays to look back at Aqueduct and other tracks form from which you can pull some nuggets that may prefer the Saratoga config more than others.

And I don't really know what you mean about same horses/trainers. As someone else already mentioned, Saratoga is ship in's galore. It pays to do homework re. key races, actual class of races, track bias, etc from these out of town tracks.

[soupman2]

Some good info so far, thanks.

[RaceBookJoe]

Saratoga runs one turn races up to 7 furlongs.



I agree about the influx of uninformed money, especially opening weekend and each and every Sunday. The only issue I had with your theory about the stretch is that Belmont's stretch is shorter than Saratoga.

NT

Yeah, i lost me on that one too haha. Maybe i am thinking of the sweeping turns at Belmont...i dont know, cocaine is a helluva drug . :bang:

[point given]

Progressive Handicapping puts out books on tracks with profiles of the track,trainers and jocks. For $30 it will get you up to speed on whatever track you want to play.

Saratoga is a unique meet where every horse owner wants to get in the winners crcle for a photo. Its the place to be and the 2 year olds get introduced from all over. I'd make one suggestion for you to pay attention to and that regards the 1 1/8 route races. There is a short run to the clubhouse turn and outside posts are up against it, if they send to the front they will tire late and if they trail out of the gate, they have alot of work to do.Good luck.