Breaking Even System

[LutherCalvin]

I'm a recreational player who over the years has developed a mechanical system that produces a combined win/place ave of 72% with 34% winners in both sprints and routes. Unfortunately my r.o.i. using this system is -.05 as most of the plays are favorites that are heavily bet at the windows and usually win or place second.

I would like to get my r.o.i. into the positve range with this system which evaluates each horse on the basic factors of pace, form, class, speed, and consistency. It only takes about a minute to handicap a race and I get about 30 playable races each time I go to the off track. But I'm getting tired of "breaking even" (losing a little).

I am leaning towards confining my bets to those horses that are 2-1 or higher at post time and making bets using one unit to win and three units to place formula. This would limit my play to 3-4 races a day. Needless to say, it would develop my patience, but pad my wallet.

Does that sound like a viable strategy? Any comments ar suggestions would be appreciated.

[thaskalos]

Have you tried betting to PLACE only? With a 72% success rate, you only need a 2.78 average mutuel in order to break even.

I would be shocked if your system fails to average a place payoff that low.

If you limit your win bets to horses going off at odds of 2-1 or higher, you may discover that you are no longer winning 34% of the time...

[jamey1977]

Have you tried betting to PLACE only? With a 72% success rate, you only need a 2.78 average mutuel in order to break even.

I would be shocked if your system fails to average a place payoff that low.

If you limit your win bets to horses going off at odds of 2-1 or higher, you may discover that you are no longer winning 34% of the time... Very very difficult. The Place bets are just nailed with these types of horses. 2.60 to Place. Even 2.40 sometimes. I would investigate further and try to bet on the horse when the horse is 7-5. 8-5. 0r 9-5 off. That's about the only overlay you can get with these. But sometimes, you would still get a 2-1, 5-2 overlay. Try all horses. Between 7-5 and 5-2, off. Try to D.Q. chokers. Should improve the R.O.I.

[macdiarmida]

In this day and age, how can you be sure to have 2-1 at post? This will be a troublesome requirement. I see 3-1s and higher pounded down well below that after the gates open and as the race is running. Any track, every day. Certainly you can stand by and pull a bet if the odds drop below 2-1. But you won't be able to do it that often and you could easily end up with zero plays for the day, on (IMO) too many days. Is that level of patience suited to a recreational player? That's a question you'll be up answering.

Don't know why you chose that bet structure. I assume it's what you've been using to date. I don't like bets structured like that, but if the system is to be purely mechanical, so be it. Per comments above, think strongly about place pool only.

If you're that close to break even now, IMO you need to find adjustments to your methods to bring up your percentages up just a couple percent. That might just be in the form of cutting down on losers a slight amount.

[dav4463]

Are there certain tracks that show a profit? How about certain race types such as Allowance, Stakes, or claiming? You could eliminate the ones that are doing the worst. Also, check it by jockey win %. Do you do better (ROI..wise) with the top jocks or do they hurt your profit? Maybe you should limit play to horses that have won with the jockey before or horses that have won at the same track before. There are lots of different filters you can check to find out where your profit comes from and which ones lose too much.

[thaskalos]

You mentioned that you do your playing at an OTB. That has to change if place betting plays a big role in your wagering...the surcharges at the OTB reduce a 3.80 place payoff to 3.60.

Make your bets online. That alone can transform your "losing" system into a winner.

[Canadian]

Why don't you play PTC? Wouldn't rebates bring you over?

[misscashalot]

Does that sound like a viable strategy? Any comments ar suggestions would be appreciated.

Bet races that have fields of 8 or more bet entries

[LutherCalvin]

Absolutely great comments and suggestions. Thanks for your perspectives. I believe that I'm on the way to joining the 5 percent club of handicappers who consistently show a profit. Keeping accurate records is time consuming, but a must if you want to be successful in this game. I want to be successful.

[Steve 'StatMan']

Be sure to verify that 2/1 minimum odds requirement, and if they still w/p close to your current w/p%. Usually the lower odds horses within a group make up a much stronger % of the hit rate than the long shots, when using the same selection criteria. You might hit lower than 72% w/p at 2/1 odds & up. Just be sure the hit rate and payoffs with that requirement are enough.