Valuist
08-10-2003, 01:10 AM
"Take proven Grade 1 winners in Grade 1 races and take horses who have at least won Grade 2 events in Grade 2 races," claims James Quinn in one of his many books. Here's the results of todays Sword Dancer:
Whitmore's Conn 1st paying $51.50 to win, Macaw was 2nd paying $14 and change to place, and 55-1 Slew Valley was 3rd paying $16 to show.
Without looking at the past perfs, you'd think all 3 were out of form coming into the race. Actually Whitmore's Conn and Macaw were very sharp, both closing on a nothing pace to run 1-3 in the Grade 2 Bowling Green last month. Whitmore's Conn had won exactly two graded races before today: the Gr. 2 Bowling Green in the last 2 years. Macaw had run 3rd in the Gr. 2 BG and 2nd in the Gr. 3 Mac Diarmida. His last win was against ungraded handicap company in Great Britain. Slew Valley's had a 2nd in the 2001 Bowling Green and a 3rd in the 2001 Sword Dancer but his last win was against optional 50000 claimers at Delaware 26 months ago. The bottom line? The grade designations are done sloppily, and many Grade 2s are as tough or tougher than some Grade 1s and the same goes with Gr. 3s to Gr 2s. Also many ungraded stakes come up tougher than subpar Grade 3s. Good speed figures should always supercede arbitrarily assigned graded stakes levels when handicapping. Whitmore's Conns $51.50 win payoff might be the overlay of the year.
Whitmore's Conn 1st paying $51.50 to win, Macaw was 2nd paying $14 and change to place, and 55-1 Slew Valley was 3rd paying $16 to show.
Without looking at the past perfs, you'd think all 3 were out of form coming into the race. Actually Whitmore's Conn and Macaw were very sharp, both closing on a nothing pace to run 1-3 in the Grade 2 Bowling Green last month. Whitmore's Conn had won exactly two graded races before today: the Gr. 2 Bowling Green in the last 2 years. Macaw had run 3rd in the Gr. 2 BG and 2nd in the Gr. 3 Mac Diarmida. His last win was against ungraded handicap company in Great Britain. Slew Valley's had a 2nd in the 2001 Bowling Green and a 3rd in the 2001 Sword Dancer but his last win was against optional 50000 claimers at Delaware 26 months ago. The bottom line? The grade designations are done sloppily, and many Grade 2s are as tough or tougher than some Grade 1s and the same goes with Gr. 3s to Gr 2s. Also many ungraded stakes come up tougher than subpar Grade 3s. Good speed figures should always supercede arbitrarily assigned graded stakes levels when handicapping. Whitmore's Conns $51.50 win payoff might be the overlay of the year.