Handicapping Secrets

[Amazin]

There is alot of general handicapping talk here,but I'm certain many here(including myself) hold back from disclosing their personal best handicapping methods,observations and studies.Unfortunately this seems to be a necessary situation therefore we are not learning that much from eachother.

[superfecta]

guess you won't be around much ?We could post everything we know and it wouldn't change alot.Because of the human factor.A wise cracker once said"you could post the winner before a race with a skywriter in giant letters and people would still find a way to lose money."And the game is always changing,good and bad.Just because you hide your favorite nugget,doesn't mean it hasn't been found.And just because you don't spill your entire handicapping process,doesn't mean you can't contribute something to someone who is at a different stage of learning how to bet horses.

[Amazin]

Super

You're right about the human factor and I'm glad for it.I have occasionally blabbered my prize possesions and regreted it only to be saved by that human factor.Rubish,throw that jeanie bottle away.Then they want to know how I hit that superfecta.And I'll say "it's the system".Oh that...fogetaboutit.

[superfecta]

Learned it long ago.Gave out a longshot to key a tri(in a short field, no doubt)to all that asked.Hit the tri cold and several came up to me after the race mad because I didn't hold a gun on them and MAKE THEM BET THE RACE.Knew then this was a great game.

[SAL]

I myself don't really have any "handicapping secrets". I certainly would not hesitate to share any knowledge that I have gained while playing the horses for the last 20 years.

But most of what I know is not new or breakthrough stuff. I come to this board to learn and pick up things that winning horseplayers do. I'm not sure that any particular method or tip disclosed here would have that much of an impact on the mutuel windows at most tracks anyway.

[Fastracehorse]

Today it uncovered a 53.6 -1 shot at Del Mar. I lost the race by a head but I still got the x.

Good secrets uncover over-lays and this is a competitive business so it would be un-wise to babble.

It was my posted top pick. The horse who won I posted 2nd ( 6:5 ).

fffastt

:confused: :eek: :mad: :rolleyes: :cool: :p ;)

[Tee]

This reminds me a bit of the 2000 Breeders Cup Classic.

I was sitting down at my local otb when my "friends" asked me who I liked. Well those that know me best or even somewhat will acknowledge that I was/am a huge Budroyale fan & thus a Tiznow fan.

Well to make a long story short the only person that asked & actually listened was an older woman I had never met. After the race the guys I had talked to didn't have a dime on Tiznow.

Call it ego, call it what you will, most horseplayers know it all & do not care to listen to anyone else. I also tend to live & die by my own selections. I feel it is the only way to learn & move forward with my handicapping & playing endeavors.

Having said that, anyone that makes a solid case for a play that I don't see - I will listen, other than that I'm on my own.

We are throwing our money into a huge pool & he/she who caps best & gets a little luck takes home the prize. Knowing this who would ever give away their "handicapping secrets"?

[WINMANWIN]

Over the many years I have been capping, I've noticed when
trainers have multiple horses running on a race card, I pay more
attention to there charges. Ever notice how many times, a
trainer may run 3 on the day, and lose with 2 faves, and Bingo
pops at a nice mutuel with the next steed. I cant say, How many times that has happened, and will happen to me in the future,
and I still dont have the Winner :confused: It's the same with Jockey's, Bet them at 4 to 5 on a steed, Off the board, and The
next race or Latter they pop at a nice payoff. I usually
Emphasize this madness to leading trainers and Jocks, but It
does have credence with low profilers also. This game is Super Tuff, as we all know. Take the Saratoga meet for instance,
Pletcher is on FIRE !!! He is winning races at an INCREDIBLE rate.
He sometimes runs 4 or 5 a day. He figures Every race. I'm
committed to Bet him cause I like him in every race that day, But
If I can somehow take a stand AGAINST him in a race or 2, and
not use him, I have an O.K. shot in the race. Some fields are so
competitive, You simply have to go too deep to bet some races.
Patience and composure is also an important factor. In summation
These trainers and Jocks can make the Best of us Cappers, TALK TO OURSELVES, DAILY !!!! :mad:

[Niko]

Where do you post your picks fast?
Has anyone else followed his/her (no offense either way) picks?

[Suff]

Nothing I ever say or do will have any impact... any impact at all , on my ability to or how much money I earn betting thoroughbreds.

I could tell, post, tape, video, write everything I know about handicapping and POST all my selctions and it will not directly cost me ONE RED CENT.....

If anything...Because I am so open about how I look at races and what tools I use, and I post my selections.. I have circled myself with excpetionally generous and gracious people.

And as a direct result of that... I am a better player....and a profitable player.

I make money...more money by sharing.

Its like my relationship with the UNION.

There is a bunch of us that have assisted each other along the way,,, Now we have a little corner of the city to ourselves and we all benefit from that.

Guys that stepped on others necks also have a spot...but they are there all by themsleves. And I've seen them fall hard.

Be Careful how you treat people when your going up....Because you see the same people on the way down.

I've stood by and watched guys sink when I could have saved them. But they chose to be an island... and when the water rose they drowned.

All depends what group you want to belong to.

[Handy Cap]

That was a very good post Sufferin..Perhaps, the best I have ever read on this site.

PA, if you have a "post of the year" award, I nominate Sufferins!!

[kenwoodall]

Your pix- who won (or should we assume it was Boston- LOL! Nice email!
Win- What is Pletcher's flatbet ROI?
I have a secret for you all- Look closely if the horse And trainer are groomed well!

[andicap]

At one time or another over the years I've been here I've probably spilled out how I go about picking horses. I even offered to tell people for free-=-and explain in great detail what I do in return for testing some of my theories.
I've had no takers.
I don't blame people -- who the hell am I? Why should anyone listen to my advice on the horses. So that's why I tell people. I enjoy sharing my knowledge and I believe the game will grow and will attract more people if we share the little nuances we know.
But since I don't do this for a living -- am not a pro -- there's no reason for anyone to take one iota of my advice. So it's risk-free for me to babble about my methods -- and if I share, maybe someone else will give me a helpful hint in return.

There are a handful of people on this board I am reasonbly certain are consistent winners. There a bunch of others I suspect win over the long run, but I'm not positive. From those people I will read everything they write two times over. Some I accept and try to research on my own -- most of it I cast aside because it
doesn't fit into my style of play.

Example: The database people here could lay out a plan to win $1 million over the next 2 weeks and I wouldn't understand a word of it.

On the HTR board, some of the users there freely share what they have learned through their research -- others elect to keep their mouths shut and not give away their secrets. It's their right and I'll never knock anyone for keeping mum.

But since I don't depend on this for a living, it sure is fun exchanging tidbits that could unlock the code for me.
In fact, one of the basis for my current method of play I learned about right here about 4 years ago. I've refined it, expanded it, tested it, had it programmed into software and it was the foundation of my handicapping in the tournament where I had a very positive ROI over 5 weeks. (More so within a certain odds range that I am now researching as well -- making prime bets only on horses in the 3-1/6-1 range. Not betting anything beneath that and "action" bets on longshots with an eye on tracking them long range.)

So I think this board is just dandy -- except when it degenerates into name-calling and one-upmanship and downright bragging.
Why should I care AFTER the race about a longshot you just hit, unless a) it was biggest hit of your life and you've got to blurt it out or b) you're willing to say what it was about the horse that you liked so we can all learn from you.

[Amazin]

Andicap ;

You make a good point about not being inhibited to share your methods because you don't do this for a living.I don't think Andy Beyer would agree as he has said that before selling his secret Beyer figs he used to get nice prices with them and now he gets chalk.I think he'd rather mow the lawn than take that.

[kenwoodall]

I do not think sharing win secrets will affect odds too much. Show secrets may, as a $300.00 bet could really change the payoff! Good thing there is not much interest in that sort of bet!!
What tips I get are usually minor things I can add to how I already handicap so I do not acknowledge all of them but I do use a large # in small ways or to adjust my thinking about a factor. So I thank you because I probably took 1 of yours into consideration!!
Tips here often help me to avoid an individual lost bet.
I sometimes start threads to ask for suggestions or tips on a specific subject, like certain horse strides. Ask or email me anything you like, especially about recognizing positive or negative patterns in PP's, or Equibase works or results charts!

[GameTheory]

If write a best-selling book which leads to a new kind of figure being added to all published PP's, yes it might wreck your mutuels. Giving advice on a message board? Get over yourself!

Sufferin is exactly right -- you could post in detail a simple & mechanical procedure that made +300% profits on this board or any other and it wouldn't make a damn bit of difference. It is paranoia and nothing else that makes you think otherwise.

Now if you posted specific picks on a regular basis on your own website and they did incredibly well, then maybe just maybe your following would grow to the point that you could be hurting yourself. But I doubt it.

[VetScratch]

There are exceptions:

Less so in this age of national simulcasting, but still a consideration are tracks like TDN, RD, EMD, PRM, and EVD where pools are so small that picks and very simple angles could suffer from sharing.

When an exotic pool is only $9000, which will pay out $6750, two or three winners is preferable to eight or ten. At these same tracks, a few extra last minute poundings will also kill Win odds.

[Amazin]

If you really have a method that returns 300% roi like GT states,you'd be nuts to post it .

[ljb]

folks,
I am having the best year of my life in gambling. (I play horses and blackjack).
Have been doing this for the last 20 some years.
My secret is threefold.
Record keeping
Money management
Discipline.
I am using techniques similiar to what I always used in my handicapping, the success comes from the three things mentioned above.
Karl talks about taking 400 and doubling it then going home. I have similiar methods.
Don't get me wrong I still have lapses of stupidity, but don't go completly off kilter anymore.

[rmania]

So not to be accused of keeping any secrets(?), I offer the following....

Here’s something I look for. Though it’s really not a secret, there may be some on this board that have never heard mention of it.

I call it the “Pop and Stop” and it’s restricted to sprints only.

By my definition, a “Pop and Stop” is where a horse shows “front-end” speed to the quarter pole (in it’s most recent race) then proceeds to finish more than 20 lengths back at the wire (preferably more than 30).

If that horse returns to race within an acceptable amount of time (e.g., no extended layoff), with a slight drop in class, and it’s capable of making the lead against today’s field, then WATCH OUT......

So far at the current Del Mar meet there have been only 2 horses meeting the above criteria and both have won.

One paid $18 and the other paid $126.

[GameTheory]

I like these types too, but with the caveat that some horses *always* do this. I like to see that the strong early move is a new thing...

[rmania]

Originally posted by GameTheory
I like these types too, but with the caveat that some horses *always* do this. I like to see that the strong early move is a new thing...
Personally, I think it would be difficult to find a horse that (by my definition) "always" does this. At least on a major circuit. Again, we're talking about horses which lead after a half-mile then come to virtually a complete stop.

If these types don't win next time out (yet still compete for a half-mile), watch for them again if they are wheeled back quickly.

Case in point is a horse named Tigermite who ran on Aug. 3rd. Though the horse showed a string of poor finishes (after being on or near the lead at the quarter-pole) only 1 of those races (by definition) fit the category of a "Pop and Stop". That race happened to be a "2 back" race.

Her next time out she improved by 20 lengths though it was only good enough for 4th. On Aug. 3rd she managed to duplicate her previous race effort (againt a weaker field) and finished 2nd (1 length back) at 51/1.

[Zaf]

I like this angle and have caught many a nice price winners over the years. Can one of you database guys do some kind of statistical analysis on this ? Thanks.

ZAFONIC

[Fastracehorse]

<So far at the current Del Mar meet there have been only 2 horses meeting the above criteria and both have won.

One paid $18 and the other paid $126.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

That's a nice ROI!!

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Another nice angle is where a fresh or improving horse blows out to a big lead in the slop - but gets caught: They are almost always BIG next out.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Another tricky speed horse: A horse that absolutely has to have the lead to run well. These types finally have their race and are usually huge odds.

fffastt

[rmania]

Originally posted by Fastracehorse@DRF
So far at the current Del Mar meet there have been only 2 horses meeting the above criteria and both have won.

One paid $18 and the other paid $126.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

That's a nice ROI!!
That’s right fffastt.. only 2 (kinda)...

I just downloaded the pps for today and number 3 may be in the works.

Here’s the running line of his last (and only) race:

28Jul03 3Dmr fst 5½f :22.2 :46.2 :58.4 1:05 Md50000 8 2 4-2, 8-4¾ , 9-15, 9-29½

Now this doesn’t look too much like a “pop” but it’s definitely a “stop”. And, according to my software, a repeat of those fractions puts him on the lead early against today’s field. Add to this a double drop in class (Md50K – Md32K) and picking up the meet’s leading rider (due to an injury), I’d say it’s worth a shot.

The horse is listed at 15/1 on the morning line after debuting with a morning line of 5/1 (in a Md50K) just 17 days ago.

If you’re interested the horse is Comet Junior in the 3rd and ridden by J. Krone.

[VetScratch]

Rmania,

I know several posts have laughed at training excuses, but a high percentage of ABRUPT early speed quitters bleed through lasix or are horses that displace their soft palattes.

There is no absolutely dependable simple fix for displacements... Tongue ties, special bits, tranquilizers, etc.

For bad bleeders, lasix overmedication is always a temptation, but many trainers try to hold bleeders via other means with mixed results, such as feeding pure alfalfa bulk or adding natural food supplements (which sometimes are illegal, as with ephedra).

Your description of "pop and stop" horses corresponds to either or both of these conditions. Before the "pop," the problem may have been severe enough to inhibit vigorous conditioning. The "pop" race indicates progress towards a solution and encourages the trainer to condition the horse more "forwardly." On the ensuing "score," the barn takes their best hold on the race, which may include extra measures that build on whatever has begun to alleviate bleeding and/or displacement. For example, many joint treatments have long term detrimental effects but have positive short-term benefits when you pull out all the stops to win a race.

[rmania]

I can't make it to the track today and I don't bet on-line. So, if anyone is considering playing Comet Junior in Del Mar's 3rd, how's about making a $2 win bet for me :D

If he wins I'll tell you where to send the money. If he fails to win I'll find a way to make it up to you. ;)

[rmania]

Originally posted by rmania
If he fails to win I'll find a way to make it up to you. ;)
In case anyone bet 2 bucks for me, I've made it up by posting a "saver" in the 4th race.

It's in the "Selections" forum.:p

[Tom]

Originally posted by zafonic
I like this angle and have caught many a nice price winners over the years. Can one of you database guys do some kind of statistical analysis on this ? Thanks.

ZAFONIC

SMALL SAMPLE ALERT*****

I only have July/Aug data in the db with the fileds I need for this.

Here is the criteria:
*Last race FCP=1
*Last race fin>4
*Layoff<31

(Cannot use BL's until I re-build db-new exports are being intergrated)

NH 152
NW 21 14% roi 0.84
N Longs=7 33% (Paid over $15.00)

Now, add this to the mix-must be ranked #1 in F1 in today's race.

NH 48
NW 10 21% roi 1.10
N Longs = 3 30%


Interestingly enough, of the 10 winners, 4 were dropping in class and 6 were rising.

Looks like this angle is worth looking at more closely, like who are the trainers that do this move, what other changes are involved, ie, blinkers, lasix, etc. As soon as I get my db's updated and re-linked, I ll do a full blown study on this one. I was tight on the criteria, maybe a little loosening will be benficial, like FCP=1 or 2 instead of just 1, etc.

[rmania]

My database consists of only 10K races. All were either 6 or 6½ furlongs on dirt and all were conducted on the SoCal circuit.

After filtering the database, for horses within a length (or leading) after both the quarter mile and the half mile then finishing 20 lengths back or further, the results were as follows:

# of races : 13
# of horses that won next time out : 5
win % : 38.5

There were 3 others that finished within 2½ of the winner next time out.

In other words, 8 out of 13 (or 62%) ran huge in their next race.

[rmania]

Originally posted by rmania
My database consists of only 10K races. I should clarify this statement...

The records in my database represent 10K races. There are actually only @ 5K records with each recording the efforts of 2 consecutive races by a single horse.

[rmania]

Here’s another interesting tidbit....

I have developed formulas that compare a horse’s qtr-mile time against its half-mile time and produces an estimated finishing time based on the results. That estimated finishing time is then compared to the horse’s actual finishing time resulting in a number (zero being the optimum).

A negative number indicates the horse ran faster than the projected time and a positive number indicates a slower time than projected.

When testing these formulas against my database, the vast majority of horses received a number between 20 and 30.

Those with high negative numbers (i.e., -40 is higher than –30) not only lost next time but they almost always bounced.

On the other end of the spectrum, ALL horses with numbers > 100 (the ultimate “pop and stop”) won their next time out and at huge odds.

Naturally, these cases are rare but you can’t knock the win percentage....

[Tom]

I used only first call, which obviously let more loser into the sample. I will use your way, first two calls and re-run. I don't have BL available for both calls and finish, so I have to imrovise a bit, but I think the spirit of the angle is sound enough. Certainly easy enough to eye-ball scan a lot of races and make a quick list.

[Tom]

Beyers are based on 1/5th of a seconds for a length.
Anyone ever make them using 6 lengths per second instead of 5?

[WINMANWIN]

Originally posted by **********DotCom
Beyers are actually base the value of a fifth of a second on the distance of the race and the fraction of the final time that a fifth of a second represents relative to the other distances.

Can you please explain. How the Beyer #'s are calculated. I never read the book, and was wondering If you could sum it up,
In a paragraph. I often see 2 horses for instance, running 110's
at the same track a week apart, and the #'s are 72 and an 82.
Does the track variant mean that much ? Or do they compare other races that are run that day ? Much tks........

[Amazin]

Here's some food for thought. This is a potential handicapping secret,but I'm still working on it.

Back almost 20 years ago(around the time I first started playing the horses) I took Beyers advice and made a class/sex par chart.I noticed that the males were quite distinct in their class/time heirarchy,but not so with females.As I played the races I found my strength was with older claiming male sprints.For some reason I didn't do nearly as well with older females races.

Fast foward to today.When the DelMar meet opened I decided to profile what factors the winners at Del Mar had using my computer program.Sample is small but results are eye opening. This is the results from the first 2 weeks of the meet.

Of the 9 older male sprint races I fed into the computer, 7 were won by either the first or second rated horse in the speed category.

Of the 8 older female sprint races, 0 were won by the first or second speed horses. Interestingly, 5 of those races were won by the first or second ranking trainer in the field. 4 were won by horses who had a "fast" work since their last race.

Of course how you determine speed,trainer percentage,or fast works is probably differrent for everyone on his board.

So even though this sample is extremely small,the differences in the male and female category is too large to ignore.I have been too busy with work to continue this research but intend to do so.It may be that sexcapping is a major factor in race outcomes.Could it be that fillies and mares are more responsive to the treatment by their trainer rather than their conditioning like males are?

[GameTheory]

Rmania, in another thread, scoffed at the excuse by a jockey, "I think she is in season."

But the fact is that could be valid excuse this time of year. Check out the females in the fall & winter compared to summer...

[rmania]

Originally posted by GameTheory
Rmania, in another thread, scoffed at the excuse by a jockey, "I think she is in season."
I scoffed only at the fact that the jockey was trying to come up with an excuse as to why the odds-on fav he was riding lost.

Actually he said something like - I don't know, maybe she was in season.

I think most would agree that his explaination was a little off the wall. After all, how would he know? :eek:

[GameTheory]

My point is that fillies are "in season" in the summer months, and become erratic racers when they are.

[Amazin]

Here's a case in point.Yesterday's 8th at Ellis Park. 7f alw.3YO & up F&M

Observe the trainer angle for a $32.80 winner.

Using data from Thrograph

Top 3 rated trainers w/fillies:#1,#6,#11
Top 3 rated trainers overall: #1,#6,#11
Top 3 rated trnrs last 90 days:#1,#3,#9,#11

Top 2 trainers from these 3 categories are #1(favorite) and #11(15-1).

A further breakdown between these 2 that I use would show #11 to be the top trainer here.Nice $11,000 tri in this race with #3 running 2nd.Can't ask for more incentive to pursue this angle.If you think this has to do with a filly in heat,think again.

[VetScratch]

Rmania,
I think most would agree that his explaination was a little off the wall. After all, how would he know?Because the trainer might have mentioned that she was acting like it (and may have been drawing spirited attention from horses back in the barn). How this effects mares when they race depends on each individual, but is generally not a positive factor.

BTW, some races (and a few stakes) have been won by mares who were actually pregnant! However, pregnancy is extremely rare because most mares at the track are stitched up to prevent penetration, which is a "sore" subject as far as I'm concerned. :)

[GameTheory]

Originally posted by Amazin
Here's a case in point.Yesterday's 8th at Ellis Park. 7f alw.3YO & up F&M

Observe the trainer angle for a $32.80 winner.

Using data from Thrograph

Top 3 rated trainers w/fillies:#1,#6,#11
Top 3 rated trainers overall: #1,#6,#11
Top 3 rated trnrs last 90 days:#1,#3,#9,#11

Top 2 trainers from these 3 categories are #1(favorite) and #11(15-1).

A further breakdown between these 2 that I use would show #11 to be the top trainer here.Nice $11,000 tri in this race with #3 running 2nd.Can't ask for more incentive to pursue this angle.If you think this has to do with a filly in heat,think again.

I wasn't trying to say that there were not differences between trainers regarding success with males vs. female. There definitely are, and you're wise to track them. It probably comes from the realization that there are differences between male & female equines. Who knew?