Look for improvement from Mine That Bird in the Whitney

[letswastemoney]

Especially if it's a sloppy track. MTB has not finished out of the money on dirt in his last 4 dirt races. His next start will be on dirt in the Whitney I presume. I feel he can hit the board, especially if it's a sloppy track.

His 8th place finish today was predictable, considering Birdstone does not produce turf runners. I don't think any Birdstone has won on turf first time out. So this start can be tossed.

[Stillriledup]

Especially if it's a sloppy track. MTB has not finished out of the money on dirt in his last 4 dirt races. His next start will be on dirt in the Whitney I presume. I feel he can hit the board, especially if it's a sloppy track.

His 8th place finish today was predictable, considering Birdstone does not produce turf runners. I don't think any Birdstone has won on turf first time out. So this start can be tossed.

He should have been 20-1 in this race, what were his final ;) dds?

[cj's dad]

He should have been 20-1 in this race, what were his final ;) dds?
The favorite @ 2.8 - 1

[BluegrassProf]

I expect Lukas to start him again in 4 days. On poly. With blinkers and two jockeys.

Poor MTB...what a rough go at it the guy's had. He deserves a cruise.

[JustRalph]

I was incredulous that he was 2-1...........

I thought there wasn't any dumb money in the pools anymore ?

[Stillriledup]

The favorite @ 2.8 - 1

Cmon, you're kidding, right?

Anyone who bet this horse at 2.8-1 should have their handicappers card taken away.

[lamboguy]

i will certainly be on the lookout

[Bullet Plane]

Well,

Wayne has gotten MTB's confidence back now! Wait...ugh. Wayne made a great call putting him in that turf race.. Wait ...ugh...

He's really prepared to fire his best shot now in the Whitney! Wait..ugh that doesn't make sense either.

I guess this is a resounding "Booo hissss" to the peformance. Let's hope they do the right thing now and keep him out of the Whitney!

I mean what else do you want from the horse, for him to turn Mr. Ed and say "Hell no, I won't go!"

[Robert Goren]

Cmon, you're kidding, right?

Anyone who bet this horse at 2.8-1 should have their handicappers card taken away. Anyone who bet MTB at 5/2 should be given a lifetime pass to every race track in the country. We need more like them.:)

[nijinski]

I'm more concerned that he has some issues and cannot compete in stakes at
this point.
If it's not a wet Whitney and he loses he could be looking at optional claiming. Poor horse is a gelding , I hope they take care of him and not allow
him to slip way down .

I hope you"re opinion is right , it would make me feel better about his situation.

[letswastemoney]

I'm more concerned that he has some issues and cannot compete in stakes at
this point.
If it's not a wet Whitney and he loses he could be looking at optional claiming. Poor horse is a gelding , I hope they take care of him and not allow
him to slip way down .

I hope you"re opinion is right , it would make me feel better about his situation.
We'll see. I think whether he flops or not in the Whitney, everything will be revealed then. But I wouldn't be too harsh on a Birdstone colt flopping on turf.

[Stillriledup]

Anyone who bet MTB at 5/2 should be given a lifetime pass to every race track in the country. We need more like them.:)

Great point! :D

[garyscpa]

Well,

Wayne has gotten MTB's confidence back now! Wait...ugh. Wayne made a great call putting him in that turf race.. Wait ...ugh...

He's really prepared to fire his best shot now in the Whitney! Wait..ugh that doesn't make sense either.

I guess this is a resounding "Booo hissss" to the peformance. Let's hope they do the right thing now and keep him out of the Whitney!

I mean what else do you want from the horse, for him to turn Mr. Ed and say "Hell no, I won't go!"

It's called "darkening his form." An old racing trick. :D

[The_Knight_Sky]

It's called "darkening his form." An old racing trick. :D




I was waiting for Steinlen to make the turf-to-dirt move.

But that never happened.

Oh well. ;)

[JustRalph]

Any comments on how he looked ?

I only got a few seconds of him going on to the turf course

But I thought he looked great! Looked like he was much bigger to me?

[Dahoss9698]

I don't think it's a big stretch to think MTB will probably improve off of this effort. But the question is, does it matter? He will probably always be overbet considering he's a Derby winner and he was very good for about 3 weeks last year. Other than that he's been pretty mediocre.

[Igeteven]

Too all of you think the horse is no good, today was nothing but a work out for the horse, nothing else,

So lets see what happen, the horse works out and the players loose.

[Dahoss9698]

I don't get it.

[johnhannibalsmith]

... the horse works out and the players loose.

I am contemplating authoring lyrics for a top 40 hit with this line as the hook. Permission por favor?

[Java Gold@TFT]

The only way MTB gets a sniff of Quality Road's butt in the Whitney is if they draw next to each other in the gate. If the racing secretary was honest he would assign QR 128 and MTB 110 just to make things even slightly fair. A sloppy track won't make any difference. Quality Road ran a decent race in the Travers last year when he was ill-prepared for the 10F on a freaky sealed Saratoga surface. He'll be fine and MTB will be in Porter's Corners when they turn for home.

[TheBid9]

I was feeling very optimistic about MTB's training. He was sharp and looking good. Seemed to be coming up to his races very nicely and then Lukas appeared to make a decision that can be attributed to either: frustration, anxiety or senility or possibly all three! I realize that this race was a tune-up or added work but it could not have been any fun for the horse. What was this guy thinking? He said he could either run him in the Firecracker or train him up to the Whitney. Should have continued to train him! I guess Wayne forgot that thoroughbreds can experience esteem issues and in my opinion, this race could not have hurt MTB more in that department.

[wisconsin]

I was feeling very optimistic about MTB's training. He was sharp and looking good. Seemed to be coming up to his races very nicely and then Lukas appeared to make a decision that can be attributed to either: frustration, anxiety or senility or possibly all three! I realize that this race was a tune-up or added work but it could not have been any fun for the horse. What was this guy thinking? He said he could either run him in the Firecracker or train him up to the Whitney. Should have continued to train him! I guess Wayne forgot that thoroughbreds can experience esteem issues and in my opinion, this race could not have hurt MTB more in that department.

What happened here, happens everyday at the track. A horse running in the "wrong" spot off a layoff. What is un-fun for a horse who is running in a public workout? A tough field like this with a short horse who does not fit the surface or diatance is exactly where you run a horse if you are planning for bigger things to come. Too many trainers today prep horses in easy N$Y allownace races facing 4 overmatched runners.

[TheBid9]

What happened here, happens everyday at the track. A horse running in the "wrong" spot off a layoff. What is un-fun for a horse who is running in a public workout? A tough field like this with a short horse who does not fit the surface or diatance is exactly where you run a horse if you are planning for bigger things to come. Too many trainers today prep horses in easy N$Y allownace races facing 4 overmatched runners.

I see your points, Wisconsin, and appreciate them, however I don't think MTB sees this race as a "public workout". He is a thoroughbred and they are competitive by nature. Yes he was short and I didn't expect a win from him, but I think the horse's progress could have been better served with something a little more in his favor. Again, your points are well taken.

[joanied]

Lukas tried to give him an easy spot in an allownace race...didn't fill. Maybe he should have tried shipping him to get him on dirt. As far as him getting a good 'work' from this race...not!! I doubt he got much out of it at all..except to find himself trailing under the wire...I wouldn't be surprised if Calvin didn't even try much with him and the little horse was probably spinning his wheels.
I sure hope to see him go on after this and do well...the Whitney is going to be awful tough. But MTB does look wonderful...very robust...I just hope after the Firecracker, his mind is OK too.

[SmartyParty]

Lukas tried to give him an easy spot in an allownace race...didn't fill. Maybe he should have tried shipping him to get him on dirt. As far as him getting a good 'work' from this race...not!! I doubt he got much out of it at all..except to find himself trailing under the wire...I wouldn't be surprised if Calvin didn't even try much with him and the little horse was probably spinning his wheels.
I sure hope to see him go on after this and do well...the Whitney is going to be awful tough. But MTB does look wonderful...very robust...I just hope after the Firecracker, his mind is OK too.

You said just what I'm thinking!

[Igeteven]

I am contemplating authoring lyrics for a top 40 hit with this line as the hook. Permission por favor?

yes

[joanied]

You said just what I'm thinking!

:) Good deal. I'll be loking to see if anyone interviewed Calvin and/or Lukas after the race...see what they have to say.

[Spalding No!]

A tough field like this with a short horse who does not fit the surface or diatance is exactly where you run a horse if you are planning for bigger things to come.
Maybe this isn't the point you were trying to make, but putting it in those words, you sound like a madman.

Too many trainers today prep horses in easy N$Y allownace races facing 4 overmatched runners.
That has been the norm for a lot of top class horses over the entire history of racing in this country (a lot of them were held as "exhibitions"). What's wrong with that type of comeback? Ironically, I don't think we see enough it anymore with races difficult to fill and trainers trying to fine tuning their horses to be at peak form even off a layoff.

[Igeteven]

I don't get it.

The horse was not there to win, just work out with other horses in a race.

Yes, they fooled the public, yes they screwed the public,

Nothing more

[sandpit]

He ran just like he did in the last few races of 2009...lagged around there in last and tried to pick it up late...the only horses he beat were no-hopers.

Calvin said after the Firecracker that we would see a different horse in the Whitney. You have to appreciate his optimism, but he may be in a different time zone than QR at the finish of that race.

[Dahoss9698]

The horse was not there to win, just work out with other horses in a race.

Yes, they fooled the public, yes they screwed the public,

Nothing more

They might have fooled the "public" whoever they are, but I don't know anyone that bet the horse, or would want to at those crazy odds. Obviously people did, but any rational horseplayer didn't. Even though I lost on the race, as I bet the second finisher, we as horseplayers need that "public" hammering terrible favorites.

[Fager Fan]

No one got screwed. What handicapper wouldn't take into account his long, long layoff along with the race being on turf?

As for those fretting that he lost any confidence, you think this race did that and not all the other losses he racked up last year? I'm sure his confidence wasn't shaken any worse yesterday than at any time prior.

There was nothing terribly wrong with this spot. Ship to race on dirt? There's nowhere near to ship to from Kentucky, so it would've been a long ship up, a long ship back, and then within a week, another long ship up to Saratoga. I can see not wanting to do that.

And last, I didn't see any sign at all that the horse was short. I did see that he didn't like the surface, and I did see that he had far too much ground to make up. He went from 22+ to 7 back at the wire so he did some running despite everything.

[Jasonm921]

I think this was a good move by lukas. The please me now society we live in would love to see him run in an easy 3horse field and get a victory. Get the horse fit and let him roll on dirt in the big races. Lukas said he is not training him to be a turf runner. He's building a foundation.

[wisconsin]

Maybe this isn't the point you were trying to make, but putting it in those words, you sound like a madman.

Give me a break. A madman? We may differ in opinion, but I believe in actually running horses in tougher races when prepping. I never thought he could win. It was a useful race. The allowance race Lukas was seeking would have been much softer, almost too soft. And, like I have said in another thread, a race over the turf often toughens up a horse.

[Spalding No!]

Give me a break. A madman? We may differ in opinion, but I believe in actually running horses in tougher races when prepping.
Well, in your first statement you said that not only should the field be "tough", but that it should also be on the wrong surface and at the wrong distance. Furthermore, you stated that such a race was "exactly" the appropriate spot for an under-prepared horse.

[wisconsin]

Well, in your first statement you said that not only should the field be "tough", but that it should also be on the wrong surface and at the wrong distance. Furthermore, you stated that such a race was "exactly" the appropriate spot for an under-prepared horse.

Like I said, we disagree. But don't put words in my mouth. I never said the horse was "under-prepared". Turf sometimes toughens a horse up, and the toughest turf distance is a flat mile. This was a good place to run him, and he benefitted more so than he would have in some dirt allowance. None of this makes me sound like a madman. Makes me sound like a trainer who actually has balls. Trainers all over think nothing of these maneuvers everyday of the week, but we somehow must pamper stars when it comes to stakes horses.

[Spalding No!]

Like I said, we disagree. But don't put words in my mouth. I never said the horse was "under-prepared". Turf sometimes toughens a horse up, and the toughest turf distance is a flat mile. This was a good place to run him, and he benefitted more so than he would have in some dirt allowance. None of this makes me sound like a madman. Makes me sound like a trainer who actually has balls. Trainers all over think nothing of these maneuvers everyday of the week, but we somehow must pamper stars when it comes to stakes horses.
What do you mean by a "short" horse if not under-prepared?

Do you think Forego was pampered when he typically made his annual reappearance in a 7f allowance race? Should he have started in the Bowling Green or the Tidal instead?

I'll let the BS slide about this Firecracker effort somehow being more beneficial to Mine That Bird than a dirt allowance , as neither of us can ever confirm or disconfirm it. We can also ignore the fact that D Wayne Lukas himself said he'd prefer to have run in the dirt race.

[wisconsin]

What do you mean by a "short" horse if not under-prepared?

Do you think Forego was pampered when he typically made his annual reappearance in a 7f allowance race? Should he have started in the Bowling Green or the Tidal instead?

I'll let the BS slide about this Firecracker effort somehow being more beneficial to Mine That Bird than a dirt allowance , as neither of us can ever confirm or disconfirm it. We can also ignore the fact that D Wayne Lukas himself said he'd prefer to have run in the dirt race.

Boy, let it go already. I already said we disagree on more than one occasion. That's what this forum is for. To call my opinion out as BS, well, I'll let that slide, since it comes from a know it all.

For the record, no, Forego was not pampered, but when was the last time you saw a horse run in 12 stakes in one season?

[Spalding No!]

For the record, no, Forego was not pampered, but when was the last time you saw a horse run in 12 stakes in one season?
I don't know, you keep steering the argument all over the place.

I thought we were talking about a horse's first start off a layoff. Forego ran in money allowances against around 3 or 4 other rivals to start off several of his campaigns, the exact type of race you said was "pampering".

What does the subsequent number of starts have to do with anything?

I will let up on this when at least 3 other people come on here and agree with you that a "short" stakes calibur horse should run in a tough race, at the wrong distance, on the wrong surface, to start off the year.

[joanied]

I sure won't be one that says running a good horse, from a lay off, in an allowance race is 'pampering'...sounds kinda silly to me. The only reason MTB went in the Firecracker is because the ALLOWANCE race Lukas had in mind did not fill.
If we looked back, I'd bet nearly 90% of good horses came back in an allowance race...it simply makes good sense to do it that way.

[wisconsin]

I am well aware that the ALLOWANCE race did not fill. I've never liked that move. That's me, and that's my opinion. I just feel that the Firecracker was a useful place to put the horse. I knew he was going to be short. Not "under-prepared", just not the spot where he was going balls to the walls to even attempt to win. What he did do, however, is come from 18 lengths out at the 1/4 pole to finish in roughly 24.1 if you adjust beaten lengths ( I know that is old school). Tell me if you thought that was any good, considering the winner got the final 1/4 in 26.1 without any challengers. Like I said, that's just me.

[Fager Fan]

I am well aware that the ALLOWANCE race did not fill. I've never liked that move. That's me, and that's my opinion. I just feel that the Firecracker was a useful place to put the horse. I knew he was going to be short. Not "under-prepared", just not the spot where he was going balls to the walls to even attempt to win. What he did do, however, is come from 18 lengths out at the 1/4 pole to finish in roughly 24.1 if you adjust beaten lengths ( I know that is old school). Tell me if you thought that was any good, considering the winner got the final 1/4 in 26.1 without any challengers. Like I said, that's just me.

He wasn't short though. He didn't like the surface and was far too far back to do any better than he did. He was running better late than at any point in the race. That's not a short horse.

It's no big deal. He was coming off a long layoff and is going to lose more than he wins anyway with his degree of talent and running style. I just hope that he does have it in him to win a few big ones.

[joanied]

I am well aware that the ALLOWANCE race did not fill. I've never liked that move. That's me, and that's my opinion. I just feel that the Firecracker was a useful place to put the horse. I knew he was going to be short. Not "under-prepared", just not the spot where he was going balls to the walls to even attempt to win. What he did do, however, is come from 18 lengths out at the 1/4 pole to finish in roughly 24.1 if you adjust beaten lengths ( I know that is old school). Tell me if you thought that was any good, considering the winner got the final 1/4 in 26.1 without any challengers. Like I said, that's just me.

Ok, so you don't think starting off in an allowance race is a good idea...that's fine, different strokes for different folks:) ...but the Firecracker was a useful spot because Lukas couldn't find anything else...more or less forced to run the horse rather than keep him in the barn when he knows the horse needs to race.

Yes, I thought he ran pretty damn good...he was so far back i didn't think there was much hope...but he's a game little dude and made up a ton of ground, which, no doubt, helped him because he was going to be short regardless of where he ran on that day. That is my opinion...and I beleive next time out, he'll run back to his old self...not saying he'll win the Whitney, but IMO, he'll do himself proud...and, if he did win, I'd love it!!

[letswastemoney]

I'm not saying necessarily he'll win because of Quality Road and Blame, but I am predicting he'll run a somewhere in the low 100s on the beyer scale next time out.

Not only will Mine That Bird be racing on dirt for the first time in a long time, but they won't let Quality Road get away with an easy lead, unless it's a 5 horse field or something. But assuming there are some horses in the Whitney with an ounce of speed besides Quality Road, they only have 2 options: go with QR, or let QR set 24 and 48 type fractions and watch him run away.

If they want to win, they have to stay close to QR early, setting it up for closers like Blame and MTB.

Again this is all dependent on who is in the race. It could very well turn out that only QR, Blame, and MTB run for all I know. Heck maybe Dutrow will try I Want Revenge and send out his "rabbit" again. I just don't think they will let QR get away easily. It's just my opinion though.

That doesn't mean I think QR will lose. He will probably win no matter what pace scenario. But I think MTB will put in a good run and be a lot closer at the end than people expect.

And as for price, Quality Road is 1/9 in every race, so there's no chance MTB could be favorite here. Blame has higher beyers, so I project MTB as 3rd choice maybe.

[Bullet Plane]

The Firecracker,

1) Was not a stellar field by any means. The top 4 finishers had not hit the board in a Graded Stakes in a couple years. The winner scored a 100 Beyer. The Firecracker has been won with an average Beyer of 104 the last few years.

2) Comparing the race to others on the card ran on the turf, and to par, the splits of 23.1 45.4 1:09.3 were very fast. This gives the closers an edge.

3) While early horses won both turf routes, horse's that came out of the clouds also ran well. In the Firecracker, Veiled Prophet, a deep closer, made a fantastic move in the stretch to lose by only 2.75 lengths.

4) Having it all his own way, being in a great spot, MTB was nowhere to be seen. Matter of fact, the camera panned way out, and still I could not pick up MTB coming down the stretch.

5) In my opinion, it was a dud performance by MTB.

[Fager Fan]

The Firecracker,

1) Was not a stellar field by any means. The top 4 finishers had not hit the board in a Graded Stakes in a couple years. The winner scored a 100 Beyer. The Firecracker has been won with an average Beyer of 104 the last few years.

2) Comparing the race to others on the card ran on the turf, and to par, the splits of 23.1 45.4 1:09.3 were very fast. This gives the closers an edge.

3) While early horses won both turf routes, horse's that came out of the clouds also ran well. In the Firecracker, Veiled Prophet, a deep closer, made a fantastic move in the stretch to lose by only 2.75 lengths.

4) Having it all his own way, being in a great spot, MTB was nowhere to be seen. Matter of fact, the camera panned way out, and still I could not pick up MTB coming down the stretch.

5) In my opinion, it was a dud performance by MTB.

I find it difficult to make the claim that the race favored closers considering the winner was on the front the whole way around, and the horses who ran in 2nd, 3rd and 4th finished 2nd, 3rd, and 5th.

Also, Veiled Prophet had an 11 length head-start on MTB - and he began his run sooner.

[Cratos]

I find it difficult to make the claim that the race favored closers considering the winner was on the front the whole way around, and the horses who ran in 2nd, 3rd and 4th finished 2nd, 3rd, and 5th.

Also, Veiled Prophet had an 11 length head-start on MTB - and he began his run sooner.

From where I sit on why MTB was in the Firecracker is because he is a gelding and his connections probably wants as many options as possible over MTB’s racing career.

However MTB was never in the Firecracker trailing at every point of call by an average of 2.61 seconds. I don’t if this was because of the layoff, his first time on turf, or a combination of both.

However his connections probably got what they wanted and now they can move forward with their strategy.

[Bullet Plane]

Fager Fan,

I figure the horse is advantaged or disadvantaged based on the pace, as I indicated in my earlier post. The finish order is somewhat indicative, but I look at all the turf races on the card for any clues to make a final conclusion.

MTB must have had a Beyer speed figure of about 84. That and his poor finish lead me to believe this was a bad race for him. True, I am basing most of my analysis on his competion, the pace, and his speed figure.

It's just my opinion. You don't agree. Fine, more power to you. Have a good day!

[WinterTriangle]

MTB must have had a Beyer speed figure of about 84.

Sounds around what his Beyer speed figure was going into the KY Derby. :)

He's a gelding, will have to earn his keep on the track, will probably win a few and lose a few.....if they don't burn him out.

I happen to think Wooley and MTB went together like peanut-butter-n'-jelly, so I'm not real keen on Lukas getting him. Not a comment about who is better trainer, just that the former team had some kinda "kismet".

[wisconsin]

QUOTE DELETED


ooooooooooo k

I'm still waiting to read that exhilerating and eye-popping article you promised years ago.

[46zilzal]

ooooooooooo k

I'm still waiting to read that exhilerating and eye-popping article you promised years ago.
The archive I was allowed to use was recently closed so until I have access to it again, that project is on hold.....NO DATA no article

[joanied]

Sounds around what his Beyer speed figure was going into the KY Derby. :)

He's a gelding, will have to earn his keep on the track, will probably win a few and lose a few.....if they don't burn him out.

I happen to think Wooley and MTB went together like peanut-butter-n'-jelly, so I'm not real keen on Lukas getting him. Not a comment about who is better trainer, just that the former team had some kinda "kismet".

If you really think about, if MTB never wins another race, his owner should still kiss the ground he walks on and thank his lucky stars he has this little horse...never would the owners have been taken on such a ride as they got with MTB...they will forever have that Kentucky Derby trophy, memories and go down in Derby histroy books and lists.
If MTB doesn't earn his hay and feed, then I hope that the owners have his best interests at heart and retire him to another career, hell, after what he did for them, just being retired to a nice pasture should be Ok with them...maybe ask Woolley if he wanst him, since they did seem to have a bond, spending a lot of one on one time together...I would think Chip adores MTB.
I hope that Lukas will always do the right thing for MTB.

[WinterTriangle]

If MTB doesn't earn his hay and feed, then I hope that the owners have his best interests at heart and retire him to another career.

I think he would be great at a lot of other things. Seems like an intelligent horse, as they say. Travels well and settles in nicely. And the way he plays with his rubber ball.....always loved that video.

Found this article, turns out my "guesses" were right:

"Mine That Bird was very intelligent. The nickname “Bird Brain” was a consequence of the intelligence he exhibited.
Paul and Gemini Caine also noted that he was a playful horse. He always liked his job, moreso after he was gelded...
....Mine That Bird was well balanced, athletic and on the small side. He learned to switch leads, while galloping, easily. This is a sign of a well-balanced horse."
http://therail.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/05/12/mine-that-birds-early-education/

BTW, Joanied, did you notice how much he and Brother Bird resemble each other? BB is bigger of course.

Anyway, who knows what makes you like a horse? I started liking him when I saw the way he looks into the camera. Curious.

[Robert Fischer]

he could be a greeter at wal mart

[PaceAdvantage]

The archive I was allowed to use was recently closed so until I have access to it again, that project is on hold.....NO DATA no articleHogwash. I bet you the reason there is no article is because the facts didn't agree with your bias going in...am I warm?

[joanied]

I think he would be great at a lot of other things. Seems like an intelligent horse, as they say. Travels well and settles in nicely. And the way he plays with his rubber ball.....always loved that video.

Found this article, turns out my "guesses" were right:

"Mine That Bird was very intelligent. The nickname “Bird Brain” was a consequence of the intelligence he exhibited.
Paul and Gemini Caine also noted that he was a playful horse. He always liked his job, moreso after he was gelded...
....Mine That Bird was well balanced, athletic and on the small side. He learned to switch leads, while galloping, easily. This is a sign of a well-balanced horse."
http://therail.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/05/12/mine-that-birds-early-education/

BTW, Joanied, did you notice how much he and Brother Bird resemble each other? BB is bigger of course.

Anyway, who knows what makes you like a horse? I started liking him when I saw the way he looks into the camera. Curious.

Good read, Winter T :ThmbUp: I love it when connection nick name a horse...it shows they have a great findness for them...MTB's nick name is great...love it!
Some times there is just something about a certain horse that captures you...being a 'ham' for the camera is one of them...and having that look within the eyes...hard to explain it, just something you feel.
Whatever happens with the little guys race career...I know I will follow what happens to him after it's all said & done...he's a great looking animal (really has improoved physically), obviously a fun horse and intelligent...no telling what he could be after racing...but like you said, he could go in many directions, so I hope someone will give him that poortunity, and that he always has love in his life...he's such a cool horse!

[46zilzal]

Hogwash. I bet you the reason there is no article is because the facts didn't agree with your bias going in...am I warm?
Not even close....The archive is being packed up while the area is being rebuilt. The head of the archive, my connection to it, was fired after 38 years looking after it.

[OntheRail]

Sounds around what his Beyer speed figure was going into the KY Derby. :)

He's a gelding, will have to earn his keep on the track, will probably win a few and lose a few.....if they don't burn him out.

I happen to think Wooley and MTB went together like peanut-butter-n'-jelly, so I'm not real keen on Lukas getting him. Not a comment about who is better trainer, just that the former team had some kinda "kismet".
If I owned him I think I'd of given Tim Ice a shot with MTB he did a hellofa job with Summer Bird and moved him along nicely from a deep closer to a versatile runner. Guess I'll hold judgment on DWL till after his next start.

[joanied]

If I owned him I think I'd of given Tim Ice a shot with MTB he did a hellofa job with Summer Bird and moved him along nicely from a deep closer to a versatile runner. Guess I'll hold judgment on DWL till after his next start.

Me too. The thing is, the owner has been friends with Lukas for over 25 years.

[cj]

Looking at the title of this thread, isn't improvement almost a guarantee? I mean, he did no running at all. The pace was fast and he sucked up late for a mid pack position, big deal. If he doesn't improve, he is done.

[cj]

Hogwash. I bet you the reason there is no article is because the facts didn't agree with your bias going in...am I warm?

He has a long history of shooting from the hip with no stats to back up his posts. That is fine, except when you pretend you do have data.

[Cardus]

Looking at the title of this thread, isn't improvement almost a guarantee? I mean, he did no running at all. The pace was fast and he sucked up late for a mid pack position, big deal. If he doesn't improve, he is done.

It sounds like I'm glomming, but I didn't get it either.

Tell me that he finishes 2nd with a career best or near-best figure in the Firecracker, then predict improvement: that would have made this thread ambitious.

[letswastemoney]

Well some people think he won't be in the same zip code as Quality Road

[Dahoss9698]

Well some people think he won't be in the same zip code as Quality Road

He won't.

[cnollfan]

I agree with Fager Fan and Wisconsin. Regardless of the splits, the fact that the race was won wire to wire tells me that rallying from last was not favorable in this spot, especially for a horse making his first start off a long layoff on a surface he had not raced over and was not bred for. Mine That Bird is a nice little horse, made a nice run, and may surprise in the right scenario down the road.

As far as his ridiculous odds of 5-2, as pointed out in this thread earlier, Derby winners are often overbet years afterward. Thank goodness the crowd can be so blatantly wrong on occasion, or else how can we make any money?

Comparisons with Forego are inappropriate. Forego was one of the greatest race horses of all time. Even the most avid Mine That Bird fans would not pretend he is in that league. I am not one of those fans, but I do think he touched a spark with the modest racing fan more than most obscure Derby winners have, so I think he is good for racing and would like to see him run well in another big race sometime.

[Spalding No!]

I agree with Fager Fan and Wisconsin. Regardless of the splits, the fact that the race was won wire to wire tells me that rallying from last was not favorable in this spot, especially for a horse making his first start off a long layoff on a surface he had not raced over and was not bred for. Mine That Bird is a nice little horse, made a nice run, and may surprise in the right scenario down the road.

As far as his ridiculous odds of 5-2, as pointed out in this thread earlier, Derby winners are often overbet years afterward. Thank goodness the crowd can be so blatantly wrong on occasion, or else how can we make any money?

Comparisons with Forego are inappropriate. Forego was one of the greatest race horses of all time. Even the most avid Mine That Bird fans would not pretend he is in that league. I am not one of those fans, but I do think he touched a spark with the modest racing fan more than most obscure Derby winners have, so I think he is good for racing and would like to see him run well in another big race sometime.
This post reminds of grade school when a slacker kid had to give an oral book report. He had a lot of the character names correct and sort of a bare bones grasp of the plot, but most of it sounded either off point somehow or altogether made-up.

When questioned by the teacher with the inevitable, "Did you even read the book?", the kid's response:

"Well...I read the back cover..."

[PaceAdvantage]

Not even close....The archive is being packed up while the area is being rebuilt. The head of the archive, my connection to it, was fired after 38 years looking after it.What archive are you talking about exactly? All this vagueness certainly isn't helping substantiate your claims.

You seemed pretty cocky and confident when you first told us of this big ol' Lukas expose you were going to write years ago...the fact that we haven't heard a peep since might lead one to believe your theory is false.

[cnollfan]

This post reminds of grade school when a slacker kid had to give an oral book report. He had a lot of the character names correct and sort of a bare bones grasp of the plot, but most of it sounded either off point somehow or altogether made-up.

When questioned by the teacher with the inevitable, "Did you even read the book?", the kid's response:

"Well...I read the back cover..."

You posted that you would be quiet if three people posted who said they agreed with Wisconsin re: MTB. I agree with him, so I posted.

[Spalding No!]

You posted that you would be quiet if three people posted who said they agreed with Wisconsin re: MTB. I agree with him, so I posted.
My debate with Wisconsin ended days ago. For the record, his assertion that a short horse should run in a tough race, on the wrong surface, at the wrong distance in its first start off a layoff went way beyond just Mine That Bird running in the Firecracker. And, no one has as yet agreed with that generalization.

As for my response to your post, it was in regards to the portion about Forego. You completely missed the point of bringing that horse up if you think a direct comparison between his abilities versus those of Mine That Bird was being made.

[cnollfan]

As for my response to your post, it was in regards to the portion about Forego. You completely missed the point of bringing that horse up if you think a direct comparison between his abilities versus those of Mine That Bird was being made.

Sorry. I see how my post could be construed that way and that does not represent what you said. But I also think "This is how Forego's connections did it so this is how horses should be prepped" is equally irrelevant.

[Spalding No!]

But I also think "This is how Forego's connections did it so this is how horses should be prepped" is equally irrelevant.
Fair enough, but I wasn't necessarily trying to present the "right way" of doing things anyway by bringing up Forego. My gripe was that Wisconsin considered starting the year in a small field allowance as a form of "pampering", which hardly seems fair if the horse is going to be campaigned aggressively the rest of the year.

[wisconsin]

Fair enough, but I wasn't necessarily trying to present the "right way" of doing things anyway by bringing up Forego. My gripe was that Wisconsin considered starting the year in a small field allowance as a form of "pampering", which hardly seems fair if the horse is going to be campaigned aggressively the rest of the year.



Speaking of Forego, you do know that his annual Allowance starts were at ages 6-7-8. His tough 4 and 5 year old campaigns did not begin with an Allowance race. MTB is not an older horse, but still developing at 4, and I doubt that any major horse will be campaigned very aggressivley this year. They might run in a solid block of races this fall, but when I think of aggressive campaigns, well, I think of Forego.

[46zilzal]

What archive substantiate your claims.

You seemed pretty cocky and confident when you first told us of this big ol' Lukas expose you were going to write years ago...the fact that we haven't heard a peep since might lead one to believe your theory is false.

WOODBINE and in the interim I have spoken to many trainers (around 80%) who agree that his demise was based upon his careless destruction of many a horses career.

Maybe the Keeneland DRF archive may do the trick now.

[Spalding No!]

Speaking of Forego, you do know that his annual Allowance starts were at ages 6-7-8. His tough 4 and 5 year old campaigns did not begin with an Allowance race. MTB is not an older horse, but still developing at 4, and I doubt that any major horse will be campaigned very aggressivley this year. They might run in a solid block of races this fall, but when I think of aggressive campaigns, well, I think of Forego.
Point taken with the age comparison. However, to be fair, Forego was coming off longer layoffs at 6, 7, and 8. At 4 and 5, he was merely coming off what might be called a "winter break" of 2 to 3 months.

Mine That Bird, like the older Forego, was coming off a substantial layoff over well over 6 months.

[horses721]

I think this was a good move by lukas. The please me now society we live in would love to see him run in an easy 3horse field and get a victory. Get the horse fit and let him roll on dirt in the big races. Lukas said he is not training him to be a turf runner. He's building a foundation.

Can you name me the last several "foundation" horses that Lukas has built in the last 5- 10 years??? Given all the quality stock he gets. I'm sure the list you come up with all the great 4 year olds and up that Lukas has built a foundation on. Then maybe you can tell me about all his great 3 years olds that have built a great foundation under Lukas as well. If your really bold, tell me about the great 2 year olds that have flourished under the Lukas foundation building program

[Dahoss9698]

Can you name me the last several "foundation" horses that Lukas has built in the last 5- 10 years??? Given all the quality stock he gets. I'm sure the list you come up with all the great 4 year olds and up that Lukas has built a foundation on. Then maybe you can tell me about all his great 3 years olds that have built a great foundation under Lukas as well. If your really bold, tell me about the great 2 year olds that have flourished under the Lukas foundation building program

I can't think of any in the last 5-10 years. But Serena's Song flourished under his program. I can only imagine the praise she would get if she was running today. She never missed a dance.

[Cardus]

I can't think of any in the last 5-10 years. But Serena's Song flourished under his program. I can only imagine the praise she would get if she was running today. She never missed a dance.

I remember everyone KILLING Lukas for running her two weeks after she was scorched in the Derby.

She won the Black Eyed Susan.

[wisconsin]

With all of the simulcast races we get to see, one can clearly tell that the horses he gets today are nowhere near the quality of the stock he was getting in the '80's and '90's. His first-time starters are more or less just ordinary. Has he had a major horse even in the last 5 years?

He was the leading money winning trainer what, 14 or 15 times? He got the most out his horses.

[Hanover1]

IMO, the Birds legacy will not enhance the legacy of Lukas any further. Despite the "karma" with Wooley, MTB will probably be best remembered for his defeats as well as his wins. A nice little gelding that should stay sound with his easy going and size to be sure, but just cannot seem to measure up to chasing the endless parade of fresh, well prepared horses he will face for the rest of his career. He has already stamped himself as a honest, nice little horse. Great...umm, not so much.....