LTCP,BF,B2.DBF 07-04-2010

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07-04-2010 PLAYS ARE NOW UP DATED PER SCRATCHES ON MY WEB SITE.
FILE IS TOO LARGE TO POST HERE

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after 16 win bets, up 30 cents

after laying odds +15% ahead $1.80 over 7 races

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after 23 win bets, up 5%

after laying odds +15%, 44% profit in over 17 races :)

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one of three "LTCP" plays has raced winning for $9.00

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these lay bets continue to return large profits even with a 15% increase over track odds.

Did the smart players leave for the summer? :)
full recap later

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all three "LTCP" won paying $2.40, $2.40 and $9.00

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finals:
8, B2 plays had profits in the place and show pools
20, BF plays had profits in the WPS pools
3, LTCP plays also had prosit in the WPS pools

Now here is the dramitic thing. Not so much that all 93 favorites returned a 3% loss in the win pool, rather the 17 plays I dseignated as DBF (dont bet the favorite) returned a 41% loss..
4 winners returned an average mutuel of $5.00
average win odds = 1.5-1. If I could lay the bet giving odds +15% my profit would be..66%..
Best thing since mother's milk, providing I could find a US entity wiil to take the bet leagally :)

[SansuiSC]

finals:
8, B2 plays had profits in the place and show pools
20, BF plays had profits in the WPS pools
3, LTCP plays also had prosit in the WPS pools

Now here is the dramitic thing. Not so much that all 93 favorites returned a 3% loss in the win pool, rather the 17 plays I dseignated as DBF (dont bet the favorite) returned a 41% loss..
4 winners returned an average mutuel of $5.00
average win odds = 1.5-1. If I could lay the bet giving odds +15% my profit would be..66%..
Best thing since mother's milk, providing I could find a US entity wiil to take the bet leagally :)
Nice work!
I printed out the page to look against charts (was at a 4'th party today).

Is it only certain races that give you a BF or B2 when you have a DBF?
If you have a bet against opportunity against the favorite does your model have any way to provide where the value is or is it just DBF and take the form and read it from there?

It's a very interesting method you're developing and of course all designated DBF wont be favored, I'm just looking to see where the best value is in this beyond your LTCP, BF, or B2.

I guess in short the question is can you find value in races where you have definitive DBF? I've read in your other posts that the ROI is close to even or + with the other plays.

Thanks for posting your work :cool:

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THE ONLY VALUE I CAN FIND Is TO LAY BETS AGAINST THE "DBF"

HERE IS WHY,

A bet on all 385 horses that ran in DBF races (don’t bet the favorite) returned a .83 roi, a loss of 17 cents on the dollar
The 45 horse designated “DBF” returned a .69 roi, a loss of 31 cents on the dollar.

The 340 horses not designated “DBF” returned a .89 roi, a loss of 11 cents on the dollar, cutting down the track vig from 17% to 11%.

Roi’s are the ratio for actual winners/expected winners. In a fair game this ratio should be 1.

A bet on every horse returned a loss of 385 x 17 cents = $65.45
A bet every “DBF” horse returned a loss of 45 x .31 cents = $13.95
A bet on every horse not designated “DBF returned a loss of 340 x .11 = $37.40


If you lay odds +15% on the 45 “DBF” horses, you should profit by 21 cents on the dollar

In this case (11 wins x 1.15)/16 expected wins =.79
1-.79 = 21 cents
(wins are the sum 1/(odds+1))