Churchill Downs 1st 7/4/10

[harness2008]

Happy 4th to all!

The 1st race at CD today is a MSW race at 5 furlongs with a slew of first time starters in the field. The horses which have already run show nothing in terms of coming within sniffing distance of the race par, early, middle, late or final time. This race will be won by a first time starter.

There is only one horse in here that figures the best based on the works. This horse had 4 gate workouts in the past month with some speed in them, the last 2 works at 5F which is todays exact distance. The trainer is currently winning at a 23% clip also. A very juicy 8-1 morning line for this gate to wire winner, take # :6: Herp in todays first at Churchill Downs.

Exactas of :6: over the :3: :8: :9:

Tri's of :6: over the :3: :8: :9: over the :3: :4: :8: :9:

[harness2008]

Took a ton of late money, was 12-1 early on the board and finished at 4-1, ran well but caught some other speedsters early and ran 4th. Should improve next time out with the experience.

Its not all about cashing everytime, but when you get these that run and in the right spot, you will always get some value on the board since few are chalk. Long term ROI is the goal.

[harness2008]

Happy 4th to all!

The 1st race at CD today is a MSW race at 5 furlongs with a slew of first time starters in the field. The horses which have already run show nothing in terms of coming within sniffing distance of the race par, early, middle, late or final time. This race will be won by a first time starter.

There is only one horse in here that figures the best based on the works. This horse had 4 gate workouts in the past month with some speed in them, the last 2 works at 5F which is todays exact distance. The trainer is currently winning at a 23% clip also. A very juicy 8-1 morning line for this gate to wire winner, take # :6: Herp in todays first at Churchill Downs.

Exactas of :6: over the :3: :8: :9:

Tri's of :6: over the :3: :8: :9: over the :3: :4: :8: :9:


I may have been a bit overzealous with this one and missed a very important factor. While having great works in the PP's, they all happened to be from the gate which I believe in retrospect is not a good thing. Even if Herp won this first race I would still think that because that many gate works usually means some sort of gate problems. I should have known that it's not really the thing you want to see from a 2 year old firster. I would still check this one in subsequent races especially if this horse is given any intervening workouts not from the gate.