Sweeney
07-04-2010, 10:36 AM
Hi everyone -
I've been working on a handicapping program for years, and it's finally starting to show the sort of promise I've hoped all along. The program not only takes into account long term track trends, but short-term biases, recent jockey and trainer hot streaks, and makes complex inferences, when needed, for first-time starters and first-time N.A. starters.
From data for the month of June (287 races in sample):
In fast dirt races, the top selection is winning 42.5% of the time
wet dirt races: 44.6% winners
turf races: 39.1% winners
synthetic surfaces: 34.7%
When the morning line of the top selection is 7/2 or higher (any surface), flat win bet ROI is +17%. Interestingly enough, the flat bet ROI for synthetic selections is higher than all other surfaces, despite the lower win% -- I think this has something to do with the field sizes at Woodbine in the sample, and the general confusion the public has handicapping synthetic surfaces.
I'm going to post some selections over the next few weeks, and feedback would be very welcome. I'm also looking for a name for my program, and will offer free picks from the program in the future for anyone who comes up with a good one.
This July 4th holiday card at Belmont has mostly smaller fields, and could be chalky, with Dominguez possibly having another big day.
Selections below are assuming fast dirt, and all turf races remain on the grass. Good luck, and thanks for reading.
1 Tulipmania
My Magic Moment
Ketubah
2 Lovely Lil
Tapaline
Perserverance
3 Sterling Silver
Lucida
Always a Party
4 Eagle Strike
Tar Beach
Lofty Banner
5 Outta My Mind
Eliza Grace
Ommadon's Thunder
6 Sun Pennies
Starsilhouette
Pals First Lady
7 Trust Fund Kid
Makeminechocolate
My Honey Laurie
8 In Te Domine
Lisa Jean
Mystic City
9 Champagne d'Oro
Funny Feeling
Franny Freud
10 Jacky Juice
By M K
Gracilia
I've been working on a handicapping program for years, and it's finally starting to show the sort of promise I've hoped all along. The program not only takes into account long term track trends, but short-term biases, recent jockey and trainer hot streaks, and makes complex inferences, when needed, for first-time starters and first-time N.A. starters.
From data for the month of June (287 races in sample):
In fast dirt races, the top selection is winning 42.5% of the time
wet dirt races: 44.6% winners
turf races: 39.1% winners
synthetic surfaces: 34.7%
When the morning line of the top selection is 7/2 or higher (any surface), flat win bet ROI is +17%. Interestingly enough, the flat bet ROI for synthetic selections is higher than all other surfaces, despite the lower win% -- I think this has something to do with the field sizes at Woodbine in the sample, and the general confusion the public has handicapping synthetic surfaces.
I'm going to post some selections over the next few weeks, and feedback would be very welcome. I'm also looking for a name for my program, and will offer free picks from the program in the future for anyone who comes up with a good one.
This July 4th holiday card at Belmont has mostly smaller fields, and could be chalky, with Dominguez possibly having another big day.
Selections below are assuming fast dirt, and all turf races remain on the grass. Good luck, and thanks for reading.
1 Tulipmania
My Magic Moment
Ketubah
2 Lovely Lil
Tapaline
Perserverance
3 Sterling Silver
Lucida
Always a Party
4 Eagle Strike
Tar Beach
Lofty Banner
5 Outta My Mind
Eliza Grace
Ommadon's Thunder
6 Sun Pennies
Starsilhouette
Pals First Lady
7 Trust Fund Kid
Makeminechocolate
My Honey Laurie
8 In Te Domine
Lisa Jean
Mystic City
9 Champagne d'Oro
Funny Feeling
Franny Freud
10 Jacky Juice
By M K
Gracilia