The Firecracker

[OTM Al]

The Churchill Downs traditional 4th of July race at a mile on the turf. Had my hamburger last night, so I'm primed for this one.

Mine That Bird is a sweet little horse with a nice disposition and he makes for a good story and has done us the great favor of inflating favorites' prices in the classics ever since his upset win. I can live with that. He just isn't going to make it here. Let's hope he is even below his 3-1 ML.

Now that that's out of the way, the rest of the players in this race make for a real challenge. One thing I definitely feel comfortable predicting here is that prices should be good.

After long consideration, I'm taking a stab with Public Speaker on top. Tizdejavu has an outstanding record on the course, but not so great at the distance, so I think we will have a reversal of their last. Tybalt looks in good form right now, so will use him underneath only. And now for the bomb. Driving Snow looked to be positioning himself well for a 3yo campaign that never happened. Trainer has brought a couple after long layoffs so going to take a shot with him over and under Public Speaker for a payoff that would make my month and Tybalt only underneath both. If I go for a tri, Tizdejavu and Attempted Humor, another comebacker, will be used.

[miesque]

There is a full field of 14 lining up for the Firecracker this year making for a fabulous betting race with almost assured lucrative payouts. Tybalt scratched so Baryshnikov is now in and he will be one of several on the outside who will likely be trying to cross over and procure a forwardly placed spot before they head around the first turn, including Euroears, the speed of the speed. This race should set up nicely for those who can fold back behind the leaders with a ground saving trip and then use that Churchill stretch to mow them down late. I ended up with Driving Snow, Attempted Humor and Skipadate (as well as the now scratched Tybalt).

Driving Snow is my longshot of the weekend stakes races. He obviously has some issues but showed a lot of potential as a two year old running against solid horses like Black Bear Island who was nosed out of the Secretariat by Take The Point, Westphalia was close second in the BC Juv Turf to Donativum and Bittle Road. Last year he can run well off a long layoff and he will get the perfect ground saving trip from the rail.

Attempted Humor has shown success at distances of a mile to a mile and a half and a mile might be a tad shorter than optimal for him. His third in his only graded stakes attempt, the San Luis Obispo over 12 furlongs, was a good effort over a field of veteran graded stakes horses, including the 4/5 favorite Zambezi Sun.

Skipadate should appreciate the likely pace scenario of this race and has a decent late run. While he has an outside post, he should be able to drop back and tuck in and avoid going wide around that first turn. He is the longshot that should really spice up the trifecta and he has a win over the distance last out (record of two wins and two seconds in five attempts at a mile) and so far this year has been pretty consistent and he could move forward here.

I was going to box these three with Tybalt, but since he is scratched I have been mulling Tizdejavu and Public Speaker for that fourth spot, both of whom would be better off with a smaller field with less early pace pressure but could potentially hang on late for a piece. Tizdejavu has a definite class edge and is coming off two wins but he who is at his best when he has an uncontested lead and there is no way he can get it with Euroears in the race, but he should be on the rail early with a lack of speed to his inside.

[OTM Al]

Tybalt indeed is a trainer scratch. Rats. I hate it worse as an exacta bettor to lose a second place horse than a top placer. Reliable second placers are hard to find. I will be moving Attempted Humor up into his place so it will be exactas, Public Speaker and Driving Snow over the same plus Attempted Humor plus a little extra on the Public Speaker over Driving Snow.

[Tom]

:11::3::12:

Bang Bang

[joanied]

I'm going out on a limb...
Skipadate
Tizdejavu
Mint That Bird

This'll be a great race to watch...and in my little ol' heart, I'll be rooting for MTB to win...from a lay off, first time turf...hey, what could be better than that:lol:

[PhantomOnTour]

Can't play MTB here. Underlay, distance too short, new surface, trainer talk tells me this is purely a prep....no thanks.

What's wrong with Inca King? Wins a lot esp at CD. Hasn't faced top company lately but has earned another shot. Graded winner over this turf and in superb form.

[Tee]

:7: Public Speaker

[OTM Al]

MTB is 9-5 in early betting. Not playing against here is criminal.

[OTM Al]

Can't play MTB here. Underlay, distance too short, new surface, trainer talk tells me this is purely a prep....no thanks.

What's wrong with Inca King? Wins a lot esp at CD. Hasn't faced top company lately but has earned another shot. Graded winner over this turf and in superb form.

Not a lot wrong with him except for one key thing. He's making a jump up in this one. It isn't the greatest stakes field ever though, so given his proclivity at the diatance and on the course, I can see playing him. I just couldn't get over the class issue though.

[JustRalph]

huge overlays on :3: and :11:

I like the :4: here too........but at the price....... I think you gotta play the other two

where the hell is all this money coming from on M-Bird?

[PhantomOnTour]

Here's the play:

EX: :7: :9: w :3: :4: :7: :8: :9: :12:
EX: :4: w :3: :7: :9:
Win saver on :3:

Good luck ya'll.

[JustRalph]

MTB is 9-5 in early betting. Not playing against here is criminal.

I sure did............ if he beats......me ........good for him and Wayne

[miesque]

I can't believe I am going to type this but despite having put a X with my red Sharpie next to his name early in the capping process for this race I am going to include Mine That Bird in my wagers simply because in the end after reviewing the PPs and watching some replays and how I see this race playing out in my head.

EBX TBX SPX

:1: :2: :3: :12:


Good luck everyone!

[OTM Al]

I sure did............ if he beats......me ........good for him and Wayne

Yeah, can't say more than that. Still 2-1

[ldiatone]

:11::3::12:

Bang Bang

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bU4oEWoS3dI

[OTM Al]

Here's the play:

EX: :7: :9: w :3: :4: :7: :8: :9: :12:
EX: :4: w :3: :7: :9:
Win saver on :3:

Good luck ya'll.

Looks like you had it!

Did you have anything Ralph?

They let the 4 loose. Did Mine That Bird cross the line yet?

[OTM Al]

Love that trophy. Biggest beer glass I've ever seen.

[miesque]

Here's the play:

EX: :7: :9: w :3: :4: :7: :8: :9: :12:
EX: :4: w :3: :7: :9:
Win saver on :3:

Good luck ya'll.

Congrats!

[Tom]

So much for that.
And so much for MTB.
And so much for Churchill Downs.

I will NOT miss that announcer a bit. :bang:

[PhantomOnTour]

Thx ya'll...small profit was had. Got excited when that 8 made a move at 60-1

[OTM Al]

Thx ya'll...small profit was had. Got excited when that 8 made a move at 60-1

The sun was so bright it looked like the 2 when I saw it moving at first. Then reality returned.

[OTM Al]

Oh dear. Just saw the highlights of that other 4th of July competition, the Nathan's Hot Dog Eating contest. Great controversy afterwards as Kobayashi is arrested! I think I'll stick to racing.

Think I'm going to go to the track tomorrow. I'll see if I can dig up a good one for tomorrow when I get the PPs. Doesn't look like we have any big fields so will look for a competitive race.

[JustRalph]

Looks like you had it!

Did you have anything Ralph?

They let the 4 loose. Did Mine That Bird cross the line yet?

10 bucks on the :11: and :3: and 40 on the :4: I was hoping to get that 5-1 but it was still worth it

got the pick 3 for 33 bucks a couple of times.........after the nightcap

That may be the first time I have ever bet 3 horses to win in the same race

[Mineshaft]

this just in MTB just crossed the line

[joanied]

Congrats to all that hit big...I should have put Tizdajavu up first, rather than place:mad: ...just kinda knew he'd run big...and he did.
As soon as they ran 1/8th and I saw where MTB was...knew it was all over but the shoutin'...too short a distance, turf and needed a race...although, I doubt he got much outta this one. Lukas gets him back on sirt at a distance, he'll be OK...sure looks good!
It was a fun race to see though, not often anymore we see a full field.

[pba1817]

Congrats to all that hit big...I should have put Tizdajavu up first, rather than place:mad: ...just kinda knew he'd run big...and he did.
As soon as I SAW WHO THE TRAINER OF MTB was...knew it was all over but the shoutin'...

fixed...

[joanied]

fixed...

Quote:
Originally Posted by joanied
Congrats to all that hit big...I should have put Tizdajavu up first, rather than place:mad: ...just kinda knew he'd run big...and he did.
As soon as I SAW WHO THE TRAINER OF MTB was...knew it was all over but the shoutin'...


Not sure I like you changing my words....guess you're being funny...but maybe you coulda done it without changing my words.
It's cool :cool: ...just sayin'