Efficiency Of Racetrack Betting Markets

[Donnie]

Someone musta foiund a boxful of these in the attic!
I guess with 10 being available, I wonder if it warrants the price of $134? They ARE brand new though.
http://cgi.ebay.com/Efficiency-Racetrack-Betting-Markets-Hausch-Donald-/320556974330?cmd=ViewItem&pt=US_Nonfiction_Book&hash=item4aa2af40fa

[SchagFactorToWin]

10 might flood the market! Expect to see him dropping the price.

Have you read it? Very interesting stuff, even if the math is on the advanced side. I got mine on eBay for $35 but usually see them for 80-150. Mine was that low because the seller put it as an auction instead of a BIN.

[Alan Wight]

This is the 2008 edition which is currently available from Amazon for US$96.80.

[GameTheory]

You can read the bulk of it on Google books for free...

[bigmack]

You can read the bulk of it on Google books for free...
What did you think?

Odd mix of authors: Donald B. Hausch, Victor S.Y. Lo, William T. Ziemba.

[acorn54]

yeah i bought one of those books by those authors back in the eighties for twenty bucks, the going price for them in those days. has me scratching my head why a person would buy the book for above the retail price in the eighties. but i sold mine on ebay books for sixty five dollars, deeming it worthless in this day and age, when the simulcast pools coming in when the horse gates open and its too late to bet inefficient pools.

[garyoz]

A classic book for a collector, but little value in today's betting market--rebate and simulcast driven. A collection of academic articles. The book has been discussed on PA before. The only conclusion that I remember is that longshots are overbet. I do think the book title is brilliant. I do own it--purchased in the early 90's from Gambler's Bookshop in Vegas.

[highnote]

acorn wrote:
deeming it worthless in this day and age, when the simulcast pools coming in when the horse gates open and its too late to bet inefficient pools

My experience is that the pools are inefficient when the gates open. If the pools were efficient then I wouldn't bet. If they were efficient then no one could make money betting the races. No one has an edge in an efficient market. I find the articles very relevant. Markets are dynamic, not static -- what worked yesterday may not work today. So you adapt. This book can give you a deeper understanding of market mechanisms and ways of looking at the markets.

The math is very advanced, so the average handicapper probably can't apply a lot of the stuff in this book. But this book is not intended just for the average punter. It is intended for the professional bettor or academic researchers. However, there is still a lot of useful information in the book that the casual handicapper can use. I have found the Benter/Chapman papers very useful.

gary wrote:
A classic book for a collector, but little value in today's betting market--rebate and simulcast driven. A collection of academic articles.

There is a lot of good information on modeling in this book. Modeling betting pool movement has proven useful to me. Let's say your horse is 3-1 on your line, he's 2-1 morning line and currently he is at 4-1. Where will he end up? He may be an overlay depending on how much edge you need. Or maybe he will end up as an underlay? Modeling the betting trends can help answer this question. Obviously, this can get pretty involved, but you get the idea.

With NJ about to legal betting exchanges it would be worthwhile to re-read any of the papers having to do with bookmakers. The paper by Shin is a good example.

PaceAdvantage members might also find the "Handbook of Sports and Lottery Markets" by Ziemba of interest. Lots of good stuff. This book makes a nice companion to "Efficiency". Professional level bettors will benefit greatly from both books.

I understand why people knock Dr. Z's books. The system presented in "Dr. Z's Beat the Racetrack" may not work as well betting over the internet as it used to work betting at the track, however, with some modifications it works fine. Again, markets are dynamic. Fortunately, the concept is solid and if you can estimate the pools then the system works fine.

So, if you know the pools are going to move then you need to estimate the movement. If you can predict the winner of a race then you should be able to make a reasonable prediction about where the pool will end up. There are many ways to go about making the prediction and these books have plenty of good ideas.

I've always said one good idea is worth $50. These books are filled with good ideas. In my opinion they are worth every penny.

[facorsig]

Here is a link to my review from 2005....nothing has changed.

[link=http://www.amazon.com/review/R23F51PFSFR4YL/ref=cm_cr_rdp_perm]

Fred

[LemonSoupKid]

I've posted relatively extensively on this very topic, as I have read Ziemba's books and personally corresponded with him. I wrote my own calculator program and at least from 2003-2007, did exceptionally well on big races with a version of his system.

Quickly for now, and anyone can post or PM me if he likes, but racetrack betting is EFFICIENT, absolutely efficient, over the LONG TERM.

That is, 3/1 horses win at that clip (25% of the time), even money 50%, and so on. There is a slight edge for lower priced favorites since longshots have historically been, and still are, overbet.

The key to racing is identifying which horses shouldn't be at that price on that day. Obviously.

Boiled down, it's the philosphical concept of instance vs. experience.

Anyone should know from the Triple Crown series, and any other, that if you have a reliable, good eye on horses training you can have a HUGE edge in any given race. I know for a fact for this to be the case. That's why you can cash on any given instance, even when a body of work for any given horse can be better regarding past performances (experience).

[highnote]

That is, 3/1 horses win at that clip (25% of the time), even money 50%, and so on. There is a slight edge for lower priced favorites since longshots have historically been, and still are, overbet.


If longshots are overbet (and in my experience, they are) then the markets are inefficient.

I suppose you could argue that longshots are overbet, but in a consistent manner. However, my understanding is that in an efficient market horses should win at the same rate at which the public estimates their chances of winning.

For example, all horses that the public says have a 2% chance of winning should win 2% of the time. If they are only winning 1.75% of the time then the market is inefficient.

I am interested in hearing your take on this.

[maddog42]

Just bought this book for free with a 1.99 1 day membership from online books.
Since this book sell for $90 on Amazon, I was happy to do it.