Reliability of the horse

[markgoldie]

Anyone do a consistent analysis of the reliability of the horses in the race? Something like an analysis of the horse's finishes versus his odds' position in his races. If so, do you have this ingrained in a program you use, or putting it another way, are there commercially available software programs out that offer this feature?

[therussmeister]

Something like an analysis of the horse's finishes versus his odds' position in his races.
Would this be analysing the reliability of the horse or the reliability of the betting public?

[thaskalos]

Would this be analysing the reliability of the horse or the reliability of the betting public? I would think that the reliability of the betting public has been pretty well documented...

[shouldacoulda]

Not consistently but I sometimes look to see what the odds were on a past win. Some horses it seems only win when they're 10-1 or higher. Funny how that goes.

[JustRalph]

Jcapper has a factor similar to what you are discussing:

WillToWin - (JCapper Platinum only) - WillToWin is generated by an algorithm that evaluates performance of the horse (finish position) vs. public expectancy (the odds.) WillToWin exists on a scale of from 0 to 105. Horses that frequently outrun their odds are awarded high WillToWin scores. Horses that frequently fail to run to their odds are awarded low WillToWin scores. You'll find WillToWin in the factors drop downs of both the Data Window and UDM Wizard. WillToWin is also fully "grabbable" for use in UserFactors and UPR within the IVTable Wizard. (JCapper Platinum only)

[Robert Goren]

Not consistently but I sometimes look to see what the odds were on a past win. Some horses it seems only win when they're 10-1 or higher. Funny how that goes.It is still true to a lesser extent, but in the past some trainers only won when the odds were high. I don't think the horse had much to do with it. The horse can't read the odds board, the trainer and the jockey can.