PDA

View Full Version : The United Nations


OTM Al
07-03-2010, 10:58 AM
I think I may actually place a bet at Monmouth, my first of the meet, if the odds hold like the ML in the UN. Chinchon looks to have had a very nice spot picked for his return to the US. His form this year looks well suited to his competion and with the 3 frontrunners grouped in posts 2-4, it looks to set up well for him. Winchester gave me a nice payday on Belmont Stakes day. The play for him here is in second though as the UN is just a little far for him. Will also use Take the points underneath and as a saver over Chinchon.

So anyone else have opinions on a real race rather than the imaginary ones that seem to dominate conversations?

rgustafson
07-03-2010, 11:45 AM
I think I may actually place a bet at Monmouth, my first of the meet, if the odds hold like the ML in the UN. Chinchon looks to have had a very nice spot picked for his return to the US. His form this year looks well suited to his competion and with the 3 frontrunners grouped in posts 2-4, it looks to set up well for him. Winchester gave me a nice payday on Belmont Stakes day. The play for him here is in second though as the UN is just a little far for him. Will also use Take the points underneath and as a saver over Chinchon.

So anyone else have opinions on a real race rather than the imaginary ones that seem to dominate conversations?

I,m with you on Chinchon Al. He fits all the way around on class, distance, and pace set up. I wonder how Lobo's Brazillion bred fits class wise. Only dropping 15 LBS. Do you think that might help at this distance?:)

OTM Al
07-03-2010, 12:14 PM
I,m with you on Chinchon Al. He fits all the way around on class, distance, and pace set up. I wonder how Lobo's Brazillion bred fits class wise. Only dropping 15 LBS. Do you think that might help at this distance?:)

Don't like the Brazilian at all. Not winning there tells me he has little shot here. Even winners coming from South America are tough to take until they show something. Class wise, Chinchon stands over this field.

Tom
07-03-2010, 12:40 PM
I like Take the Points and Get Serious.
TTP gets a 10 lb shift with Winchester at 11 furlongs.
Get Serious is my top play - 8 for 10 over Mth turf.

Might make my first bet there today, too.

OTM Al
07-03-2010, 12:46 PM
I like Take the Points and Get Serious.
TTP gets a 10 lb shift with Winchester at 11 furlongs.
Get Serious is my top play - 8 for 10 over Mth turf.

Might make my first bet there today, too.

Get Serious is a nice horse and can't deny that record at Monmouth. Were he lone speed, he would be a must use, but he is 6 and this is a race he wasn't good enough for last year despite winning several of those 8. Distance is a question and with another frontrunner in Acclamation that doesn't have distance questions, I can't bet this one.

The shift in weight and distance is why I have to save with TTP on top. Winchester on top in this race is a bad bet IMO.

fiveouttasix
07-03-2010, 12:48 PM
The rock hard turf course at Monmouth has to be a concern if you are backing Chinchon

OTM Al
07-03-2010, 12:56 PM
The rock hard turf course at Monmouth has to be a concern if you are backing Chinchon

It's a good point, but honestly, no that doesn't concern me so much. He ran fine last year on a firm course at Belmont against much better than this lot. Class wise I just think he's better. If the hard turf had me concerned, I might go towards Acclamation a bit, but because of the other speed I just can't. Unless of course you imply that we may have the old merry-go-round?

miesque
07-03-2010, 01:08 PM
It is rare to see this much early speed in a graded turf race at 1 3/8 miles, I think that if either Get Serious, Acclamation or Straight Story win this they will have earned it the hard way and I will tip my hat to them but I cannot play them in this spot because of the pace scenario. I ended up with Chinchon, Take The Points and Winchester, in order of preference, but not with a high confidence level because it is a rock hard turf course which is not preferable for Chinchon or Winchester and I think distance this is further than optimal for Take The Points and Winchester, the later whom I can only assume is using this to prep for the Arlington Million since 10 furlongs is his best distance and he has a win over that course. I am going to keep this simple and box Winchester, Chinchon and Take The Points for the exacta and tri. I have pretty much stopped betting horses from South America making their first start in the US (and also New Zealand) so that tosses Jeune-turc.

miesque
07-03-2010, 01:12 PM
It's a good point, but honestly, no that doesn't concern me so much. He ran fine last year on a firm course at Belmont against much better than this lot. Class wise I just think he's better. If the hard turf had me concerned, I might go towards Acclamation a bit, but because of the other speed I just can't. Unless of course you imply that we may have the old merry-go-round?

I agree, classwise Chinchon is a step above this group based on the races he has been competing against abroad and the U.S. male turf division is definitely not that strong right now.

nijinski
07-03-2010, 01:53 PM
Take The Points
Laureate Conductor up for minor spoils

OTM Al
07-03-2010, 01:54 PM
Take The Points
Laureate Conductor up for minor spoils

Care to expand on your second pick as no one has mentioned him?

PhantomOnTour
07-03-2010, 01:54 PM
Silly as it may sound, I think Telling will run big today. He likes it firm and one can make excuses for his last two...layoff and non firm footing. Sooooo, if you think Winchester and the Euro may not like the hard Mth course, and the speed is plenty & will back up then maybe Telling gets the trip from the rail and has a say so in the end.

fiveouttasix
07-03-2010, 02:21 PM
I will go with Straight Story (hope he can rate in 2nd or 3rd). Even with hot paces at Monmouth on this Turf course, closers are still up against it.

cj
07-03-2010, 02:43 PM
Care to expand on your second pick as no one has mentioned him?

I'm with you Al, but I think 3 to 1 is the max odds we will see.

OTM Al
07-03-2010, 02:47 PM
I'm with you Al, but I think 3 to 1 is the max odds we will see.

3-1 would be great I think. Just hoping Winchester gets overplayed off his last. US bettors are becoming a little more savy when they see European lines in the PPs so that will hurt a bit.

On a not betting front sure wish Presious Passion was in this one. He's just plain fun to watch. But we all need a vacation from time to time.

Tom
07-03-2010, 05:37 PM
Alright Al!

Nice call.

OTM Al
07-03-2010, 05:37 PM
Ring a ding ding.

Too bad I wasted so much on the Belmont P4, but at least no shutout on the day

cj
07-03-2010, 05:38 PM
7-2, nice! The horse won like he was 4 to 5.

fiveouttasix
07-03-2010, 05:40 PM
Great Pick, Al...what a move. I wish I listened to you!

rgustafson
07-03-2010, 05:41 PM
I think I heard him laughing as he rolled by down the lane.:)

OTM Al
07-03-2010, 05:46 PM
Damn Gomez made me nervous hanging so far back on turf like that. Thing paid a heck of a lot more than I figured too. Thought I pretty much would just get my $100 for the day back and instead almost doubled it with $10 worth of exacta. May have to dabble with England tomorrow if anything enticing is running

Thanks to all who discussed. Much more fun than the latest Ra v Z flame war and the sort of thing that brought me here in the first place. Let's do this sort of thing a little more often.

nijinski
07-03-2010, 07:03 PM
Care to expand on your second pick as no one has mentioned him?
Wan't ignoring your ? , I had to run , no need to expand now , ;) it was just
a C Clement thing.
You called it !

OTM Al
07-03-2010, 07:22 PM
No worries. Had a housework kind of day so it was easy to get back to the computer for me.

Let's do either the Firecracker or Queen's Plate tomorrow (or maybe both) They both have good full fields. Haven't gotten PPs yet but lets talk about them tomorrow.

Tom
07-03-2010, 08:47 PM
Yes, actual handicapping talk! Woo Hoo! :ThmbUp:

onefast99
07-03-2010, 08:50 PM
Damn Gomez made me nervous hanging so far back on turf like that. Thing paid a heck of a lot more than I figured too. Thought I pretty much would just get my $100 for the day back and instead almost doubled it with $10 worth of exacta. May have to dabble with England tomorrow if anything enticing is running

Thanks to all who discussed. Much more fun than the latest Ra v Z flame war and the sort of thing that brought me here in the first place. Let's do this sort of thing a little more often.
Great ride by GG. It looked like the field came to a stop and this one flew right on by.

point given
07-03-2010, 09:20 PM
Great ride by GG. It looked like the field came to a stop and this one flew right on by.

That last 1/8th was in 11 and he was last going 5 wide off the turn for home. Mucho gusto :ThmbUp: