formula_2002
06-30-2010, 07:12 PM
The anti-Long Term Capital Play seems to offer some value when laying odds on overbet favorites.
Results for all favorites, in 2175 races;
36% winners, 1.49 average odds, .83 flat bet and a/e rois
Results for the anti-Long Term Capital Play favorite play:
423 races, 26% winners, 1.69 average odds, .67 flat bet and a/e rois
It seems that I would be able to offer better odds than the track by, say 5% to 10% and still be ahead.
According to the above, I can uncover 20% of the races where the favorite is way over bet.
Starting today,I'll post some plays in the selections forum.
So far today, 19 races at Bel and Del uncovered 2 over bet favorites, both of which lost.
I got turned on to this preparing for the Belmont contest.
I think I found 10 races where the favorite was overbet, including atleast two odds on horses. 1 of the ten won
Results for all favorites, in 2175 races;
36% winners, 1.49 average odds, .83 flat bet and a/e rois
Results for the anti-Long Term Capital Play favorite play:
423 races, 26% winners, 1.69 average odds, .67 flat bet and a/e rois
It seems that I would be able to offer better odds than the track by, say 5% to 10% and still be ahead.
According to the above, I can uncover 20% of the races where the favorite is way over bet.
Starting today,I'll post some plays in the selections forum.
So far today, 19 races at Bel and Del uncovered 2 over bet favorites, both of which lost.
I got turned on to this preparing for the Belmont contest.
I think I found 10 races where the favorite was overbet, including atleast two odds on horses. 1 of the ten won