A question for the pace handicappers among you - Randy Moss Blog

[andymays]

http://mossblog.typepad.com/randy-moss-blog/2010/06/a-question-for-the-pace-handicappers-among-you.html

Excerpt:

For the last month, I've been working on an upgrade to the Moss Pace Figures. It is more of a statistical fine tuning than an overhaul. But in trying to reconcile database numbers with common-sense handicapping, I again came up against a dilemma that might be of interest to pacefig junkies, whether you prefer my pace numbers or anyone else's.

My usual warning prior to these kinds of blog entries: this is not light reading for the casual horseplayer. This is definitely "inside baseball" stuff, as they say.

Excerpt:

But truly accurate pace figures also require one additional and important "tweak." At the average one-mile track with a 990-foot stretch run, the first half-mile of a 6-furlong race is run around 76% of the stretch turn. At 7 furlongs, the first half-mile is run around only 29% of the turn. Running around a turn slows a horse, but how much? I have a formula I've used for 30 years, ever since I first read about this phenomenon in an old Gordon Jones handicapping book. I used that formula to adjust the above pacefigs, but I'd like to hear other opinions.

[cj]

I have a good adjustment, but I don't think sharing it with Randy Moss is at the top of my to do list.

[andymays]

I have a good adjustment, but I don't think sharing it with Randy Moss is at the top of my to do list.


I was going to comment about your involvement in this thread.

I didn't think you'd be too keen about helping Moss out. :D

[illinoisbred]

Why not establish a pace par for each distance rather than a formula? This used to be a serious point of consideration at Arlington before the advent of polytrack. The 7 furlong distance(which Jim Quinn once referred to as a "bastard "distance) and the 1 turn mile required a specialist who could go fast early and late(races being predominately speed -favoring then) My 1/2 mile pars at 7 fur. and 1 mile were the same as the 6 furlong par-based on a recomputing every 2 years of what was actually run at those distances. My 6fur. par for 1 turn mile races was a tick faster than my 6 fur. final time par.

These were usually pretty gruelling races-often seeing 44 and something for the 1/2 and occasionally 09's for the 6 fur. at a mile. A lot different from today where you see 1/2's in the 49's and the 6 fur. in the 1:13's and 14's.

[cj]

I was going to comment about your involvement in this thread.

I didn't think you'd be too keen about helping Moss out. :D

I don't really mind, was just being sarcastic.

[cj]

Why not establish a pace par for each distance rather than a formula? This used to be a serious point of consideration at Arlington before the advent of polytrack. The 7 furlong distance(which Jim Quinn once referred to as a "bastard "distance) and the 1 turn mile required a specialist who could go fast early and late(races being predominately speed -favoring then) My 1/2 mile pars at 7 fur. and 1 mile were the same as the 6 furlong par-based on a recomputing every 2 years of what was actually run at those distances. My 6fur. par for 1 turn mile races was a tick faster than my 6 fur. final time par.

These were usually pretty gruelling races-often seeing 44 and something for the 1/2 and occasionally 09's for the 6 fur. at a mile. A lot different from today where you see 1/2's in the 49's and the 6 fur. in the 1:13's and 14's.

Moss' pace figures attempt to measure "raw speed", so I think that is why he is asking about the adjustment. In other words, how much does the turn slow down a horse? I actually do both, make pace figures that relate to the speed figure and also a separate, raw speed type figure. Both can have value in the right situation.

[46zilzal]

Why not establish a pace par for each distance rather than a formula? This used to be a serious point of consideration at Arlington before the advent of polytrack. The 7 furlong distance(which Jim Quinn once referred to as a "bastard "distance)
Nope Dr. William Quirin, title of chapter 13 in Handicapping by Example

[illinoisbred]

Nope Dr. William Quirin, title of chapter 13 in Handicapping by Example
I stand corrected,thanks.

[Fingal]

Moss' pace figures attempt to measure "raw speed", so I think that is why he is asking about the adjustment. In other words, how much does the turn slow down a horse? I actually do both, make pace figures that relate to the speed figure and also a separate, raw speed type figure. Both can have value in the right situation.

It's not an exact quote, but in the words of Jim "The Hat " Bradshaw-

People love to adjust races. Not everything needs to be adjusted.

[thaskalos]

http://mossblog.typepad.com/randy-moss-blog/2010/06/a-question-for-the-pace-handicappers-among-you.html


Excerpt:

At the average one-mile track with a 990-foot stretch run, the first half-mile of a 6-furlong race is run around 76% of the stretch turn. At 7 furlongs, the first half-mile is run around only 29% of the turn. Running around a turn slows a horse, but how much? Theoretically, in 6 furlong races, running around 76% of the turn should slow the horses down somewhat, when compared to the 29% of the 7 fur. sprints...but in actuality, this is counter-balanced by the fact that the jockeys "instinctively" tend to slow down the pace of the 7 fur. races in order to negotiate the extra distance.

[cj]

Theoretically, in 6 furlong races, running around 76% of the turn should slow the horses down somewhat, when compared to the 29% of the 7 fur. sprints...but in actuality, this is counter-balanced by the fact that the jockeys "instinctively" tend to slow down the pace of the 7 fur. races in order to negotiate the extra distance.

Right, but in cheaper races, especially cheap maidens, it pays to know which horses are actually faster. What is ten times harder to figure is which horses finish "faster" because of the pace changes as distances change.

[bisket]

http://mossblog.typepad.com/randy-moss-blog/2010/06/a-question-for-the-pace-handicappers-among-you.html

Excerpt:

For the last month, I've been working on an upgrade to the Moss Pace Figures. It is more of a statistical fine tuning than an overhaul. But in trying to reconcile database numbers with common-sense handicapping, I again came up against a dilemma that might be of interest to pacefig junkies, whether you prefer my pace numbers or anyone else's.

My usual warning prior to these kinds of blog entries: this is not light reading for the casual horseplayer. This is definitely "inside baseball" stuff, as they say.

Excerpt:

But truly accurate pace figures also require one additional and important "tweak." At the average one-mile track with a 990-foot stretch run, the first half-mile of a 6-furlong race is run around 76% of the stretch turn. At 7 furlongs, the first half-mile is run around only 29% of the turn. Running around a turn slows a horse, but how much? I have a formula I've used for 30 years, ever since I first read about this phenomenon in an old Gordon Jones handicapping book. I used that formula to adjust the above pacefigs, but I'd like to hear other opinions.
the key to winning at monmouth is knowing who runs the turn the fastest, and knowing which horse changes leads smoothly. in many races a horse that seperates itself from the others coming out of the turn wins easily. i think many times the others just start competing for second alot earlier in the stretch at monmouth than other tracks. lots of times a visual look at previous races is the key. just look at who is accelerating the best at that point.

[cj]

the key to winning at monmouth is knowing who runs the turn the fastest, and knowing which horse changes leads smoothly. in many races a horse that seperates itself from the others coming out of the turn wins easily. i think many times the others just start competing for second alot earlier in the stretch at monmouth than other tracks. lots of times a visual look at previous races is the key. just look at who is accelerating the best at that point.

This has absolutely nothing to do with the topic of the thread. Did you even read it?

[andymays]

the key to winning at monmouth is knowing who runs the turn the fastest, and knowing which horse changes leads smoothly.

The PP's are out and the video replays are available. We expect you to list all the horses on Friday that run the turn the fastest and change leads smoothly.

You only have tonight and all day Thursday so start studying. :ThmbUp:

Post the three contenders in each race by 9:30 am pst on Friday.

[Cratos]

http://mossblog.typepad.com/randy-moss-blog/2010/06/a-question-for-the-pace-handicappers-among-you.html

Excerpt:

For the last month, I've been working on an upgrade to the Moss Pace Figures. It is more of a statistical fine tuning than an overhaul. But in trying to reconcile database numbers with common-sense handicapping, I again came up against a dilemma that might be of interest to pacefig junkies, whether you prefer my pace numbers or anyone else's.

My usual warning prior to these kinds of blog entries: this is not light reading for the casual horseplayer. This is definitely "inside baseball" stuff, as they say.

Excerpt:

But truly accurate pace figures also require one additional and important "tweak." At the average one-mile track with a 990-foot stretch run, the first half-mile of a 6-furlong race is run around 76% of the stretch turn. At 7 furlongs, the first half-mile is run around only 29% of the turn. Running around a turn slows a horse, but how much? I have a formula I've used for 30 years, ever since I first read about this phenomenon in an old Gordon Jones handicapping book. I used that formula to adjust the above pacefigs, but I'd like to hear other opinions.

The turns on any racetrack is a set of concentric radii which is banked. The farther away a horse is from the common center of the radii, the greater the speed can be, but the distance would also increase because of the increasing radius the farther away from the common center of the turn radii.

Theoretically the shortest distance or the smallest radius around the turn would be the “one path” (the tangent line around rail is shorter, but a horse must be away from the rail for running room)

However most racetracks configuration are different ever so slightly, but if you take the standard 1 mile racetrack with a 990 feet stretch you will have the following dimensions:

• Distance around both turns = 1320 feet each
• Stretch = 990 feet
• Run to the first turn = 330 feet
• Back stretch = 1320 feet

Therefore entering the turn in a 6 furlong race on a standard 1 mile track a horse would have 1650 feet left in the race or 42%. At 7 furlongs it would be 2310 feet or 50%

This all changes as the track configuration changes. For instance, Belmont is over 2000 feet around its turns and I think its stretch is 1097 feet.

To determine how much a turn slows a horse one need to know at what radius is the horse traversing the turn and the track configuration

[skate]

This has absolutely nothing to do with the topic of the thread. Did you even read it?

A little heavy on the Sarc...say what?

[cj]

A little heavy on the Sarc...say what?

Heavy? He went off on a tangent talking about Monmouth Park and lead changes. Are you saying this in any way related to the topic, or even was a spin off of another post in the thread?

[skate]

Heavy? He went off on a tangent talking about Monmouth Park and lead changes. Are you saying this in any way related to the topic, or even was a spin off of another post in the thread?

Welp, i wouldn't think along the Monmouth line, but rather his point about turn times, which would relate.

Hey, no doubt that you people know what your are talking about, but (for me) i find "staying too much to the so called topic" is detriment.

[Greyfox]

• Distance around both turns = 1320 feet each
• Stretch = 990 feet
• Run to the first turn = 330 feet
• Back stretch = 1320 feet

Therefore entering the turn in a 6 furlong race on a standard 1 mile track a horse would have 1650 feet left in the race or 42%. At 7 furlongs it would be 2310 feet or 50%



Not saying anyone is wrong but I'm puzzled here.
I don't quite follow Moss' 76 % idea.
I don't follow the 7 furlong idea above either.
At the tracks I play 7 furlong races start in a chute.
The horses run in a straight line. At the turn the 6 furlong and 7 furlong horses have the same distance left to the finish.
What 6 furlong race starts 110 yards (330 feet) from the turn??:confused:

[cj]

Not saying anyone is wrong but I'm puzzled here.
I don't quite follow Moss' 76 % idea.
I don't follow the 7 furlong idea above either.
At the tracks I play 7 furlong races start in a chute.
The horses run in a straight line. At the turn the 6 furlong and 7 furlong horses have the same distance left to the finish.
What 6 furlong race starts 110 yards (330 feet) from the turn??:confused:

What he is saying is that more of the pace call, i.e the first four furlongs, are run on a turn in a 6f race, therefore creating the illusion the horses are running slower than they really are.

[Greyfox]

What he is saying is that more of the pace call, i.e the first four furlongs, are run on a turn in a 6f race, therefore creating the illusion the horses are running slower than they really are.

Okay. That helps immensely. Thank you. The penny dropped. :ThmbUp:

[Cratos]

Not saying anyone is wrong but I'm puzzled here.
I don't quite follow Moss' 76 % idea.
I don't follow the 7 furlong idea above either.
At the tracks I play 7 furlong races start in a chute.
The horses run in a straight line. At the turn the 6 furlong and 7 furlong horses have the same distance left to the finish.
What 6 furlong race starts 110 yards (330 feet) from the turn??:confused:

My mistake and you are correct. At both the 6F and 7F distances on a “standard” 1 mile racetrack the horse entering the turn would have the same amount of distance left to run in the race.

The mistake that I made was transposing the distance run in the 6F race with the distance left to run.

What should have been posted was 42% left to race at 7F and 58% left to run at 6F.

However this calculation is far more complex than Moss indicated. A major component in causing a horse to slow down in the turn is the weight and size of the horse. Weight and size will make a big difference in the speed that a horse negotiates a turn. An average thoroughbred is about 1,084 pounds, but horses like No Bias, Zenyatta, Forego, etc will probably be about 150 pounds heavier whereas Smarty Jones , Bold Forbes, etc might be a bit lighter.