Joe Zambuto program [Archive] - Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com

redeye007

06-30-2010, 04:43 AM

http://www.beatthepublic.com/HandicapHelp.html

I've been using my joe z program again and I'm seeing some nice results since I have have a good size database now. looks like joe has a newer version than I have, 6.3 that parses the bris instant results and a new help section. anyone else using this software and seeing good results?

acorn54

06-30-2010, 02:02 PM

can you be more specific by what you mean by "good results", such as your win pct and roi and what is the sample size.

plainolebill

06-30-2010, 08:17 PM

I've used several handicapping programs over the years and I generally have something good to say about all of them even if they didn't fit my style of play, etc. Zambuto's stuff was awful.

When I bought and used his program a few years ago it was FUBAR - nothing worked right and his support was terrible. The db function didn't 'function' at all! He programmed with VB and there were buttons floating on top of other buttons making those underneath inaccessible, etc. No help from Joe.

I finally gave up and deleted it from my computer.

Advice here in case anyone is considering purchasing his program -- due diligence.

redeye007

07-01-2010, 02:40 AM

I never had a problem with it. I use the bris exotic results but they don't include some of the info like purse value, fractions, race type the stuff that the full charts include. I just manually enter them into the race database so I can segment my races to create my weighting systems that are race specific sort of like Allways does to create profiles but without using the charts.
I've been building a database at hol since 5/1/10 and have about 350 races. I haven't been tracking the ROI since I mostly play pic 3's, 4's and 6's and I'm mostly just a recreational player but lately I've been cashing in a lot of tickets now that I have a decent size database so I can target specific type races. I was just wondering if anyone else was using it successfully.

plainolebill

07-01-2010, 03:33 AM

Sorry, my rant wasn't aimed at you. Glad you're doing well.

redeye007

07-03-2010, 02:27 AM

Sorry, my rant wasn't aimed at you. Glad you're doing well.

I know your rant wasn't directed at me. It's too bad you couldn't get you issues sorted out. It's really not that bad. did you install microsoft's vbrun60.exe? not having that installed on your machine might cause odd problems with programs writen in visual basic 6.

redeye007

07-27-2010, 12:05 AM

Is anyone else using this program? I am curious how you are tuning your weights and I can share what is working well for me. yesterday at delmar top pick in the 5th stroppy $21 to win and top pick in the 9th classic bobby $16.20 to win using my hollywood park weights for the distance and race type. I look for better results once the weights are tuned for delmar.

judd

07-27-2010, 06:00 AM

good luck to you

redeye007

07-27-2010, 11:30 PM

I'm also able to generate accurate pace data using exotic results or by parsing which don't populate for beaten lenghts and position in race. I manually enter the pace data in the results database on just the win and place horse using bris's result chart format. I also edit my purse values to just 3 ranges, cheap, medium and feature.0-21k for cheap, 22-59 for medium and 60 on up for feature just using 20000,50000,100000 or any number you like. this way I have larger samples to tune by distance , race type and purse. editing the result and horse datbases only takes me a few minutes. exotic results don't populate the database with post positions so I also just manually enter them. I take my info from the Equibase result charts. Once you have some decent size samples you can begin to see the biases. of course bris result charts contain all the pertinent data for populating the databases. anyway, I'm having fun with it. :)

Partsnut

07-30-2010, 04:52 PM

redeye007I've been using my joe z program again and I'm seeing some nice results since I have have a good size database now. looks like joe has a newer version than I have, 6.3 that parses the bris instant results and a new help section. anyone else using this software and seeing good results?

I downloaded the demo which does not have the advanced features in it. The program, out of the box with no adjustments, was quite impressive for 2 tracks that I tested. It's a very flexible program that runs without a hitch on my Vista 64 laptop. The software has a lots of options and I am assuming, that when purchased it will be at least as good or better then most of the other offerings out there. I like the fact that it uses the standard BRIS data files which is affordable to most and you are not tied in to any protracted downloads.
Also, the cost of the program with all the bells and whistles is worth the $149.95 price. To me this is value.
Nice work, Joe.:)

redeye007

07-30-2010, 11:27 PM

I think I found a better way to tune races by purse value. instead of using the actual purse value I divide them into 3 groups, cheap, medium, and feature and manually make the changes in the race result database. this way I don't have to deal with 30 or more different purse values at each track just 3 once you determine the ranges. delmar and evangeline were red hot today. lots of tri and super top 4 boxes and top winners.

redeye007

08-05-2010, 05:27 AM

For all users of the program, take a close look at the horse with the best first-last sprint figure in the pace report. yesterday at delmar queen mariles $30, last week at delmar holding her ground $54. including these in pick 3/4/6 produce bonanzas. :)

Partsnut

08-05-2010, 08:28 AM

redeye007: For all users of the program, take a close look at the horse with the best first-last sprint figure in the pace report. yesterday at delmar queen mariles $30, last week at delmar holding her ground $54. including these in pick 3/4/6 produce bonanzas. :)

The demo version of the software, without any advanced features and the computer picks in the default mode came up with the attached race.
This race was posted before the fact on my web page. There were 3 or 4 more notable payoffs on the same day and from the same track.

redeye007

08-05-2010, 03:22 PM

redeye007:

The demo version of the software, without any advanced features and the computer picks in the default mode came up with the attached race.
This race was posted before the fact on my web page. There were 3 or 4 more notable payoffs on the same day and from the same track.

That was a sweet payoff :) :ThmbUp:

lsosa54

08-05-2010, 06:07 PM

That was a sweet payoff :) :ThmbUp:

Folks, that particular race had 8 first time starters and 2 horses who had run. Volcker had I think 2 available pace lines and Seattle had 1. I think just about any program would have those two on top unless they had some algorithm to rate first timers.

Partsnut

08-05-2010, 06:22 PM

lsosa54:

Folks, that particular race had 8 first time starters and 2 horses who had run. Volcker had I think 2 available pace lines and Seattle had 1. I think just about any program would have those two on top unless they had some algorithm to rate first timers.

What you say may be so but I haven't seen anybody post this race, nevertheless before the fact and does not take into account the other 3 or 4 winning races that day and for the mostpart paid double figure prices to win.
Also realize that as I have stated ,this was done with a basic demo with no advanced features.
I fail to realize what the purpose of your post tries to infer.
Evidently the public did not see what you saw after the fact.

Floyd

08-05-2010, 06:39 PM

lsosa54:

What you say may be so but I haven't seen anybody post this race, nevertheless before the fact and does not take into account the other 3 or 4 winning races that day and for the mostpart paid double figure prices to win.
Also realize that as I have stated ,this was done with a basic demo with no advanced features.
I fail to realize what the purpose of your post tries to infer.
Evidently the public did not see what you saw after the fact.

I'm not bashing the program, I recently bought it and I'm putting it through its paces, I'll have a full review in a month or so. But.
Look at your screen shot, see all those zeros? the program can't do anything with those zeros. there's no information there to evaluate. The two horses with the best information just happened to be the two who won. There may be some way for someone to handicap that race, but Zambuto's program out of the box isn't it. I ran that race through HandiF.A.S.T and got the same results, but there's no way I would bet that, because it's a gamble. There are far too many unknowns. Joe's program may be useful, (right now I'm finding it kludgy & counterintuitive, but maybe that's just me) but this is a poor choice of a race to demonstrate its utility.

lsosa54

08-05-2010, 06:40 PM

My point is that posting an example race where only 2 of the 10 horses can be evaluated means nothing. It may be a fantastic program and I hope folks make a million bucks with, but this particular race means nothing. 8 horses could not be rated. I thought it was clear enough.

Partsnut

08-05-2010, 07:27 PM

lsosa54horses can be evaluated means nothing. It may be a fantastic program and I hope folks make a million bucks with, but this particular race means nothing. 8 horses could nMy point is that posting an example race where only 2 of the 10 ot be rated. I thought it was clear enough

Lou, I didn't post the race for any other reason then using it as an example.
Evidently, you feel my choice of an example race was poor.
You are entitled to your opinion.
I could have just as easily posted the other 3 or 4 winners I had for that day.
I did post them on my web page (before the fact).

redeye007 posted his success with the full blown version and judging by my success with the demo, I decided to buy the software with all it's advanced features. I feel it's a great value.

The only Interest I have in the software is that of a licensed owner and winning.
Nothing more and nothing less. End of story. period end.
That's all she wrote.:D Case closed.

redeye007

08-06-2010, 05:39 PM

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=73548

there's nothing wrong with a software program that can do this :)

lsosa54

08-06-2010, 05:45 PM

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=73548

there's nothing wrong with a software program that can do this :)

Absolutely not - keep building that bankroll!

Vinnie

08-06-2010, 07:36 PM

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=73548

there's nothing wrong with a software program that can do this :)

Keep Rock'in on and do what you are do'in Redeye007...

Have a great weekend and keep tearing it up.. :)

Light

08-06-2010, 08:48 PM

I tried this program's demo several years ago and at first was impressed. The program was coming up with some nice ones. So I decided it was worth checking out more closely. That's when I found a bug in the system. I wish I could remember what exactly it was but it was major enough to invalidate any positive results. I emailed Joe and he recognized what I was talking about but at that time said he had no solution to it.

He used to have a message board and I think I posted the problem there as well. I don't see a message board now. Correct me if I'm wrong. Also does this program still require that massive database download? I do remember that that's where the problem was. The database itself had incorrect information. Something to the effect of giving horses credit for races they didn't run or no credit for races they did run. Maybe he corrected it by now but the example Partsnut posted reminded me of the quirks in the program.

redeye007

08-09-2010, 05:21 AM

Here's another idea for self tuning. create 4 values for purse ranges, cheap, low medium, high medium, and feature. for example at Del Mar cheap purses would be 0-21000, low med would be 22000-40000, high med would be 41000-59000, and feature would be 60000 - and up. then go into the database manager and enter the purse value. for races in the cheap range enter 20000, for races in the med low enter 30000, for races in the med high enter 50000, and for races in the feature range enter 100000. now you can segment by these 4 purse values in self tune and further isolate the distance and race type subsets as well for more precise models. :)

redeye007

08-11-2010, 05:50 PM

My testing indicates using the broad purse range for medium races. more tris and supers can be had. so for Del Mar I'm using 0-21000 cheap, 22000-59000 medium, 60000- up feature. this looks like the best way to me anyway to self tune. exotic results don't include purse values so you'll have to enter them yourself in the database or use the charts which do include them. :)

Partsnut

08-15-2010, 10:04 AM

I was very impressed with the demo so I bought the software and I am very impressed with the software and Joe Zambutos great support as well.

I am familiarizing myself with the many features this software has to offer.
Today, I am testing the computer picks for Saratoga. I fine tuned my database (4 days) as best as I could. I am attaching the computer picks for anyone that wishes to view them. I concentrate on win betting and the top 2 listed horses in each race. Just follow the link: http://www.box.net/shared/8pkjts55au

Let's see how it does. :)

cdax

08-15-2010, 11:17 AM

Partsnut

08-15-2010, 12:19 PM

cdax: If I'm not mistaken, I believe you use EquiSim as one of your tools. I was wondering how this program compares to ES.

I have tried the Equisim demo and really like the "formula view", I make a collection of expressions to hunt some specific spot plays thru out a card. I'm curious if "custom expression builder" section of this software is similar and how easy to use.

I would like to hear from Redeye also on this particular aspect.

Thanks
Chris

Hi Chris, yes I have Equisim and it's a very good piece of software.
It's hard for me to compare it to The Zambuto Software because the features and operation of the softwares are so different.
I like the reports, the database features and predictiveness of Zambutos Software and the many options it has. The custom expressions builder allows you to imput 4 custom expressions for each criteria file you create

redeye007

08-15-2010, 01:03 PM

If I'm not mistaken, I believe you use EquiSim as one of your tools. I was wondering how this program compares to ES.

I have tried the Equisim demo and really like the "formula view", I make a collection of expressions to hunt some specific spot plays thru out a card. I'm curious if "custom expression builder" section of this software is similar and how easy to use.

I would like to hear from Redeye also on this particular aspect.

Thanks
Chris

Creating custom expressions adds another dimension to my handicapping process. using it is very simple as explained in the help section. if you believe certain handicapping factors have a positive impact on the selection process you can create that factor either a simple one factor expression or a compound expression string using multiple factors and different weights can be assigned to each factor in the string. there are selectable limitation factors too. you can average over 3 or 5 races. you can create scope and elimination criteria which can be very useful. once they are built and saved they become associated with the self tuning program and the past results can determine the weights of each expression used in the handicapping process. I use all 4 of them and really like the added dimension to my handicapping processes. there are over 110 different variable factors to chose from. for example if you believe late pace is having a very strong influence on the outcome of one mile turf races you can create an expression that will amplify that factor or if you think that the best class horse who is fastest to the first quarter is producing longshots you can focus on that variable. it's a good feature of the software. :)

redeye007

08-16-2010, 05:37 AM

Here's a better way to self tune for anyone interested in trying it. you'll need a decent size database of race results. parsing the free results is a good way to do it since the purse value is there. focusing on the target race that we want to create a new weight for perform the search in self tune using sprint or route turf or dirt and plus and minus 20 percent of the target race purse value. for example the target race is a 6 1/2f race on the fast main track with a puse of 50000. I set up the search like this: Dirt=fast=<=1540 =40000-60000. I like to see a minimum of ten races in the search parameters. now I do q-check then f-tune, name and save. now I have a good weighting criteria to handicap this race. :)

redeye007

08-16-2010, 11:05 PM

redeye007

08-20-2010, 05:19 AM

Self tuning using the 20 percent purse method seems to be picking more winners :)

redeye007

08-25-2010, 05:10 PM

Here's an example of the power of the workout rating in the program. DA Boomer in the 7th had the best workout rating and was a first time starter and returned $28.40 to win and keyed other nice exotic payoffs. :)

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=74422

Partsnut

08-25-2010, 05:42 PM

redeye007: Here's an example of the power of the workout rating in the program. DA Boomer in the 7th had the best workout rating and was a first time starter and returned $28.40 to win and keyed other nice exotic payoffs. :)

Here's another example from one track betting all 9 races and hitting five trifectas. :ThmbUp: Believe it or not. 08/24/10

http://www.box.net/shared/j5tpre73ho

Partsnut

08-25-2010, 07:11 PM

Here's a trifecta I just hit in the 4th at DMR. This one race put me on the plus side for the rest of the night.

2,4,5 paid $218.80

My print out is available for those that want to see it - Just drop me an email.

Partsnut

08-25-2010, 07:32 PM

This race should get your attention.

I had the complete order of finish for the first 4 in order.
I didn't play the super but I did play the tri and caught it twice.:jump:

JimG

08-25-2010, 08:16 PM

This race should get your attention.

I had the complete order of finish for the first 4 in order.
I didn't play the super but I did play the tri and caught it twice.:jump:

Congrats on the hit(s). Are you using Zambuto out of the box or are you doing some tuning?

Jim

redeye007

08-25-2010, 08:36 PM

Nice going Partsnut :jump: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

Partsnut

08-25-2010, 08:39 PM

Jim G: Congrats on the hit(s). Are you using Zambuto out of the box or are you doing some tuning?

Jim

Jim, you need to compile a lot of races for an individual track for the database to accurately predict each distance and surface. I took a shorter route and played around with the criteria files which governs the databases predictability and custom expressions that I felt would be meaningful. The criteria files can be adjusted to what you think will be effective. If you put a lot of time in and play around with the numbers, eventually you will be successful. I've tuned a couple of tracks. Keep in mind that certain software products are good for win betting and others for the exotics. My success was due to extensive testing, backfitting and trial and error.

Partsnut

08-25-2010, 09:10 PM

DMR-Race (8)

3 tri's out of 8 races.:cool:

redeye007

08-27-2010, 08:37 PM

I like to play pick 4's. sometimetimes all it takes is using the top 2. :)

redeye007

08-31-2010, 01:54 AM

Here's a tip I learned for self tuning if you are using the BRIS exotic results. the exotic results do not include race type or purse value and these are two of the factors you want to self tune with. not a problem. just open the database manager in the results section, locate the race card after the exotic results have been added and just type in the race type and purse by placing the mouse cursor in the appropriate cell. now this info will appear in the self tune module. Parsing the free results does include this pertinent data though. I f you don't like the text in a cell like "turf(rail at 20 feet)" you can change it to just "turf". whatever you type will appear in self tune. I'm presently experimenting with purse ranges again. Using the exact purse value you can set the range for self tuning, for example (15000-22000) and all the races with purses in that range will be listed. this may be a better way still. I'll post back the results of my testing. tell us your best way of self tuning.

redeye007

08-31-2010, 08:39 PM

Here's still another way to try to self tune. open the self tune module. suppose you want to tune for a target race of 7f(1540), dirt, fast, 20000-30000, claiming. set up these parameters for race segmentation. now click set factors and set all factors to -1. next select all races and click F-Tune several times until the win percentages don't change. then click set factors again and change all the -1's to zeros. name and save if the win percentages are higher. this method seems to yield slightly higher win percentages when tested against the database. :)

redeye007

09-02-2010, 03:31 PM

Here's more interesting data regarding self tune. I segented my delmar database for all 5 furlong turf races. the win percent was 46.67%. I then ran Q-check then F-tune with all factors set to zero and increased the win percentages to 53.33% with the new weighting criteria. I then set all my factors to -1 and ran F-tune and increased my win percentages to 73.33%. then I changed all the -1's to zeros and ran F-tune again and the win percentages stayed at 73.33%. In other testing the win percentages actually went higher in some cases using this method to self tune twice.

Partsnut

09-05-2010, 11:36 PM

Before I actually use a piece of software I will try and learn every facet of what the softwares capabilities are and what it can do.
I've done just that with the Zambuto handicapper. I have it about a month and
I can say, without hesitation, that this is a very flexible tool.
Today, I wanted to see how value bets would work out so I made a few adjustments to my criteria files and built a new custom expression and filtered each individual race as I saw fit.
Please keep in mind that I have not built a database yet for any particular track.
So I'm working off the basics that was supplied with the program.
Here are the results from the projections I posted on my site, before the fact.

redeye007

09-07-2010, 11:58 PM

I've settled on the best way I can come up with to self tune. for a new weighting criteria I first segment the races by surface , condition, distance, purse and race type. for sprints I use <=1540. for routes I use >=1760. I'll keep 7 1/2f races in their own category. next I check q-check. click q-check several times. now I check f-tune and click until the new win percentages don't change. I'll note the win percentages. now I'll set all the factors to -1. I 'll click f-tune several times until the win percentages don't change. I'll note the win percentage. now I'll change all the -1's to 0's and run f-tune again and note the win percentages. the method with the highest win percentages of the 3 will be the one I name and save to use to handicap this specific type of race. for existing criterias I just load , tune. and save. Anyway, this seems to be the best way to create the most precise weighting criterias. :)

bcgreg

09-08-2010, 08:13 AM

Are you not afraid of backfitting the data or are you testing against 2 different sets of data?

Regards,
bcgreg

chrisl

09-08-2010, 07:59 PM

Hey Red: are you using pre-set on your Q check..Chris

redeye007

09-09-2010, 03:26 AM

Hey Red: are you using pre-set on your Q check..Chris

yes and I self tune the 3 ways I described and save the one with the best win percentages. the results have been quite excellent with a minmum of at least 40 race cards and results. I'm also using purse ranges to acquire my minimim of 10 races of my target race type.

redeye007

09-09-2010, 03:30 AM

Are you not afraid of backfitting the data or are you testing against 2 different sets of data?

Regards,
bcgreg

I'm only testing against 1 dataset. I want at least 10 races to create my models. more is better. overfitting can occur using too few races to create a model.

Partsnut

09-15-2010, 05:49 PM

The Power Of The Zambuto Handicapper

I posted My selections to my web page 30 minutes before post time.
Here's the results
1- 44% overlayed winning races
2- $1.0917 return for each dollar bet.
3- 6 winners in the top 2 choices (67%)
4- 4 winning overlaid bets out of 12 bets (33%)

redeye007

09-16-2010, 03:53 AM

that last pick 3 was a decent $283 for $16 wager 4-1-9. :ThmbUp:

redeye007

09-16-2010, 06:30 AM

Here's another tip for users that I'm seeing positive results with. always look at the pace report in conjunction with your handicap picks report. the pace report displays horse paceline fractions in feet per second at exact distances. If your top contenders on your picks report are beaten in the pace report by another horse at the exact distance then that horse is a must use in any betting plan. they are usually not the favorites :)

Partsnut

09-19-2010, 07:03 PM

Some More Good Results Using The Zambuto Software:ThmbUp:

redeye007

09-20-2010, 04:45 PM

the program made these supers look easy today at Delaware. the top 4 boxed actually hit in the 7th and I used filters in the 8th to hit this biggie on my second ticket. :)

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=75469

Partsnut

09-22-2010, 05:12 PM

Zambuto Pool Analysis, Betting Trends Tool

This tool allows the user to run the tote board in real-time and has a segment of his program that runs with the tote board and allows the user to see the actual betting trends simultaneously.
You can view a video of how it works at the following link::ThmbUp:

http://www.box.net/shared/r3mbcaxamg

chrisl

09-22-2010, 07:11 PM

Hey Parts: I have the new upgrade and have not seen the trend tool. I downloaded the video link you posted but no sound. Any help Chris

Partsnut

09-22-2010, 08:35 PM

Chrisl: Hey Parts: I have the new upgrade and have not seen the trend tool. I downloaded the video link you posted but no sound. Any help Chris

Chris, I'm not much on making videos but you have to access that module which is listed torwards the bottom of advanced features.
There are 3 steps you have to follow and you can get them in the help files.
If you send me an email I'd be happy to send the help file to you.

Partsnut

09-22-2010, 09:57 PM

Chris, I just emailed the help files to you.
You should not have any problem.

chrisl

09-22-2010, 10:26 PM

thanks Parts

redeye007

10-14-2010, 02:17 AM

Here's a method for creating custom expressions that I'm seeing good results with: let the self tune run determine which factors are most important. chose the ones with double digit multipliers to create an expression and of course you can add anything else you think is important. this expression will now amplify the best factors for predicting the outcome of this type of race. I have 4. one for dirt sprint, dirt routes, turf sprints, and turf routes. seeing a lot of winners picked 1st or 2nd using this race specific expression. :)

redeye007

10-21-2010, 06:28 AM

just sharing more tips for creating custom expressions that I have learned using the software. using self tune, segment your races by distance, type etc. set the factors to -1. now run f- tune. this shows the best winning factors based on your database results. chose the ones with the highest multipliers for your custom expression. I use q-check then f-tune to create a new criteria. now I'll have the added power of this expression. I set my weight for the expression to 50 but this should be experimented with :)